NBIX Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

I've been building a screen specifically for 1-3 week asymmetric swing setups.

The goal isn't to find the stock with the strongest momentum or chase whatever is already breaking out. I'm looking for companies where:
* Fundamentals/earnings expectations are improving
* Valuation doesn't seem to reflect that improvement
* The stock is still depressed or consolidation
* There's an identifiable technical level where the market could begin repricing the company
* There's a clear level where the thesis is wrong

I started with a much larger Finviz screen originally and progressively filtered for growth, profitability, ROIC, balance-sheet quality and valuation. I then went through earnings/guidance, estimate revisions, catalysts and finally the daily/weekly charts.

These are the names I'm currently most interested in:

$NBIX
This one is probably the cleanest risk/reward setup of the entire group.
The company has strong growth, very little debt and a reasonable valuation, while the stock is still sitting near major long-term technical support.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $146-150
Early Reversal: $160
Major Confirmation: $165-167
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$145
Resistance & Take Profit: $176 / $184
I'm more interested in seeing $146-150 hold and $160 get reclaimed than waiting until the stock is already back at $180.

$RDDT
This one is one of the more interesting fundamental disconnects imo.
Revenue growth remains extremely strong, FCF has expanded significantly, and earnings estimates have continued moving higher, but the stock remains well below its previous highs.
Technically it appears to be building a broad base instead of continuing to collapse (plus, it's Reddit)
Technical Levels:
Demand: $145-150
Early Reversal: $160
Major Confirmation: $170-175
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$140
Resistance & Take Profit: $180 / \~$200
The $170-175 area is especially important because several major moving averages converge there.
$WDC
The AI/datacenter story isn't only about GPUs. Storage demand is another part of the infrastructure buildout, and WDC has seen strong earnings revisions alongside cloud demand.
Unlike some AI names, the stock is currently in a substantial correction rather than trading vertically higher.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $430-250
Early Reversal: \~$480
Major Confirmation: $500-510
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$420
Resistance & Take Profit: \~$550 / $590-600
This one is further along technically than NBIX/RDDT, but still hasn't fully repaired its trend.
$AVGO
To me this looks more like an expectations reset than deterioration in the underlying AI thesis.
The company continues to post enormous AI semiconductor growth, but expectations became extremely high and the stock was punished following earnings/guidance.
That's the type of situation I'm exactly looking for: excellent business, expectations reset, price near support.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $340-350
Early Reversal: \~$370
Major Confirmation: $378-385
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$335
Resistance & Take Profit: \~$400 / $425-430
A reclaim of $370 would be particularly interesting because of the moving-average confluence around that level
$STRL
This might actually have the largest fundamental/price disconnect of the list.
Revenue, EPS, backlog and guidance have all been moving strongly in the right direction, with major exposure to data centers, semiconductor fabs and other mission-critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the stock remains dramatically below its previous highs.
The catch: The chart is still damaged
Technical Levels:
Demand: $450-470
Early Reversal: \~$500
Major Confirmation: $512-525
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$440
Resistance & Take Profit: $580-600 / \~$600
$CIEN - Highest-Risk Reversal Watch
CIEN is the most contrarian name here.
The recent quarter showed roughly:
* Revenue +37%
* Adjusted EPS +215%
* Raised guidance
* Demand still exceeding supply
And the stock got destroyed anyway.
That creates an interesting potential overreaction, but the technical picture is much worse than the others.
I'm treating this one solely as a watch-only until the chart proves a bottom exists.
Technical Levels:
Potential Bottoming Zone: $300-320
First Reversal Signal: \~$345
Major Repair Zone: $375-405
Failure: Daily close below \~$295
I have ZERO interest in trying to perfectly catch the bottom here.
**How I'm Using The Levels**
One important distinction:
A demand zone is NOT an automatic buy zone.
It means I expect buyers to potentially appear there.
The early trigger is the first evidence the reversal might actually be starting. For those, I'll generally look at the 4H chart for a close/retest/higher-low structures.
The confirmation zone is where the daily trend starts materially repairing. A daily close inside it is progress; clearing the entire zone is stronger confirmation.
The invalidation zone is where I consider my technical thesis meaningfully damaged, generally based on a daily close rather than an intraday wick.
The whole point is to get involved before the bull run becomes obvious, but not so early that I'm just blindly catching falling knives.

Curious which of these you guys think has the best fundamental/technical mismatch, and especially interested in bearish arguments I might be overlooking!