MVIS
Microvision Inc
stock NASDAQ

Ben's MVIS Podcast Ep. 48: Industrial Traction

Just be posting to say I’m still around and hodlin fwiw. I’ve made a lot of mistakes over the last several years of investing. I’ve also learned I’ve been speculating and thinking it was investing. I still believe in MVIS but I’m much more diversified now. I will hold onto my shares until their valued accurately

Palmer Luckey wearing Eagle Eye with MVIS LBS couldn't even see the progress we have made because there's no progress to see until there is revenue on the earnings reports.
Just tired of seeing these types of filings.

ChatGPTs take:
This is a Form S-3 shelf registration, and the big takeaway is:
What it is
MicroVision is registering up to 61.3 million shares that could be issued upon conversion of previously issued convertible notes held by High Trail entities. 
What it does not mean
* This is not MicroVision issuing new stock to raise fresh cash today.
* This is not a direct public stock offering by the company.
* The filing says MicroVision receives no proceeds from these share sales. 
What it does mean
It gives noteholders (High Trail) the ability to convert debt into stock and potentially sell those shares.
Think of it as:
* Company borrowed money via $43 million in convertible notes (Feb. 2026) 
* Those notes can convert into stock at $0.8819/share (subject to adjustments) 
* This filing registers those potential shares so they can legally be resold.
Why investors react to this
There are two main concerns:
1. Potential Dilution (big issue)
* Current shares outstanding: ~327 million
* Potential additional shares: 61.3 million
That’s roughly ~18.8% potential dilution if fully converted.
That can pressure the stock.
2. Convertible note “overhang”
Sometimes markets dislike these because:
* Noteholders may convert and sell into rallies
* Can create perceived selling pressure
* Some view these structures as “toxic convertibles” (though not all are)
Important nuance (less bearish than headlines imply)
The filing also says:
* Conversion is capped until Nasdaq approval rules are satisfied.
* Holders generally can’t own more than 4.99% (can go to 9.99% with notice). 
* Company can force conversion if stock trades above $2 for 20 days under conditions. 
So it isn’t necessarily 61M shares dumped tomorrow.
Why they likely did this
Likely financing / survival flexibility.
The filing itself notes:
* Significant losses continue
* Minimum liquidity covenants
* Secured debt structure
* Cash preservation matters 
This looks more like financing management than an operating disaster.
If you own MVIS, how this is often interpreted
Short-term: Often bearish (dilution fear)
Medium-term: Depends whether financing extends runway enough to create value.
Sometimes these filings trigger selling simply because people see “61 million shares” and panic.
My plain-English read:
* Not a surprise capital raise today
* Yes, dilution risk exists
* Mostly a resale registration tied to debt already done
* Mild-to-moderately bearish structurally, but not an emergency “company is doomed” filing

I tend to think we will come in under that number (1.72m) also, due to ramping up. That TradingView & others allow those manufactured #s in front of retail, institutional, & bot “eyes” only predicates a miss. MVIS has not published that number.

CAT rolled out [implementation of autonomy/sensor array](https://www.cat.com/en_US/news/machine-press-releases/caterpillar-brings-intelligent-solutions-to-life.html) at CONEXPO-CON/AGG 2026 in March. Details conveyed on the [transformation of construction with VisionLink, AI Assistant, and Command](https://futurride.com/2026/03/09/caterpillar-transforms-construction-with-visionlink-ai-assistant-and-command/) and there's no better description than in this [new video from CAT](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/caterpillar-inc_conexpo2026-constructiontechnology-conexpoconagg-activity-7452018406985252864-UykE/) addressing both retrofits and new from the factory capability. If you're watching the dealers, you're seeing this capability being touted everywhere... Wagner, Peterson, Marwan, et al... no time to post links but the implementation/deployment info is easy to find. LiDAR mentioned everywhere - and there wasn't enough time for CAT to switch horses midstream to another supplier with the speed at which they're moving forward with integration into VisionLink/Cat Command.
So again, it looks likely the Luminar/CAT contract is moving forward. If you also look at the individual use cases CAT's customers are deploying, you see many opportunities for other LiDAR products. \[Drone assistance had a recent tag by CAT.\] The market is starting to price all this in - while placing values on individual opportunities in order to revalue MVIS when execution has some numbers/greater detailed attached - and the bet right now is on the ER showing significant traction. No crystal ball here but there have been tangible things to track in this sector, including the MVIS revenue-generating update from 2 days ago. 'Fabless' production is already moving forward, as GD noted, emphasis on fabless incase a reminder is needed. An upside surprise probably takes an R\\S of the table... and the hyper focus on execution portends GD being well aware of this IMO. With that, daily grumbling is free to move about the cabin again now :)

what is going on with LIDR did i miss something? even stocktwits not going crazy. no news on wsj? schwab.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/MVIS,LIDR,AEVA,INVZ,OUST/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/MVIS,LIDR,AEVA,INVZ,OUST/)

I thought MVIS would fund our new car. That new car is now 2 years old, and we still owe money on it, so it would be great for some of that tremendous value to pay it and other things off at last! I had a FB memory yesterday from 5 years ago, where I posted how much I loved Mavis that day. I would dearly love a rerun of April 2021. Success is well overdue!

Morning everyone!
Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^[i](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek): Consumer Sentiment | 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count | 1pm. Media platforms are discussing: The Warsh plan for the Fed, Stock market focusing on Tech results and the AI trade, Intel rises on earnings beat and forecast, Oil remains elevated as Iran talks are stalled, China to curb US investment in its AI pioneers, Cyber threat warnings from European watchdog, Samsung workers union strike. Top discussion by far is the plans by Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh to adjust how inflation is gauged, how much is required for banks to hold in reserve, and how the Fed reduces their balance sheet; to be clear here, they are more outlines than actual proposals, and it gives little insight into how any of that would actually work. Premarket futures were up solidly in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were down moderately.
MVIS ended the last trading session at ~0.63, on somewhat lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price action saw the trade range expand slightly as Short related volumes by percent of total _reported_ volume was relatively neutral. One could read into this whatever they like, but right now it largely does not matter as it has long been clear that investors are largely awaiting confirmation from the company on sales growth and profit margins. There are always estimates and speculation from various sources, but until it is actually seen on the books, no amount of “momentum” claimed by the company is going to be recognized by the markets. This puts additional pressure on the company and firmly keeps the share price contained down here, but when that pressure becomes removed one might be surprised at just how much the stock will rise. That is not just a historical precedent, it is seen throughout the market continually.
## Daily Data
***
|H: 0.68 — L: 0.63 — C: 0.63 ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/historical/) |[Calendar](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek.asp)|
|:- |:-|
|**Pivots ↗︎ : 0.67, 0.70, 0.72** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp)) |**Pivots ↘︎ : 0.62, 0.60, 0.57**|
|Total Options Vol: 568 ^([i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search)) |Avg 90d Options: 1,815|
|Calls: 524 ~ 62% at Market ⊟ |Puts: 44 ~ 45% at Ask or ↗︎|
|Open Exchanges: 1,199k ~ 36% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/) |Off Exchanges: 2,170k ~ 64% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/)|
|IBKR: 700k Rate: 17.18%^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/borrow-fee/) |
|**R Vol: 86% of Avg Vol: 3,794k** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp)) |**Short Vol: 1,158k of 2,352k ~ 49%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/short-volume/?tblshortvolix=0)|

^(Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.)

My car is nearing its end of life and we are planning to move into a new appartement. 5 years ago i thought that at this point in time i could sell some of my MVIS position to finance that. Instead i'm down 70%.
It's time for tremendous shareholder value.

Good morning fellow MVIS’ers.
Post your thoughts for the day.
\_\_\_\_\_
If you're new to the board, check out our DD thread which consolidates more important threads in the past year.
[**The Best of r/MVIS Meta Thread v2**](https://old.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/lbeila/the_best_of_rmvis_meta_thread_v2/)

I know it's been discussed previously, but I keep looking at the "projected 1.72m" revenue estimate listed on TradingView, and I know it's a made-up number. Unless someone knows what it's tied to, I haven't located anything from MVIS that has given that number. Then, predictably, when MVIS reports less than that, the fake miss reported by these platforms creates additional downward pressure - but it was produced by ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I hope we blow that number away, but it ticks me off. \*sigh.\* OK, I'm better now.

The same “handicaps” Mvis has been claiming for its competitors for nearly 30 years now?
There is nearly ZERO reason to believe the story around LiDAR which MVIS has been pursuing for more than 15 years now is any better because of a limited period exclusive license on IP where much of the time has already run out.
Just before the buyout that resulted in acquisition of those licenses it was all rah rah but that team in Seattle got dumped for the next “shiny” tech…..

Sorry but 1550 lasers have been around a LONG time - anyone claiming that LSI’s patents - some of which are nearly 20 yo and who also long since became part of Broadcom’s IP portfolio is a barrier to anyone else in the LiDAR space is fooling themselves.
The incremental BOM cost for a license is a rounding error.
The same spin was done around green lasers and that spectacularly failed to do anything for the display volumes MVIS promised 20 years ago…..
But in this case it’s worse because MVIS isn’t the only one who can use these types of lasers and relying on a couple of licensed patents to keep competitors at bay is fantasy - those license are not exclusive

I was looking at the Microvision website, hoping to find some mention of the newly acquired tech from Luminar. But I didn’t find any… I just see the same old Mavin, Movia S & L, etc.
Since the most exciting aspect of MVIS lately has been the products originally started by Luminar… I wonder when the Iris and Halo might appear on the product list?
I’d think it might help with the sub $1 share price even…

Please post any questions or trading action thoughts of today, or tomorrow in this post.
If you're new to the board, check out our DD thread which consolidates more important threads in the past year.
[**The Best of** **r/MVIS** **Meta Thread v2**](https://old.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/lbeila/the_best_of_rmvis_meta_thread_v2/)
GLTALs

Don't bother man. This mod went out of his way to manually approve a 1 day old account claiming to work for CAT saying that they are for sure using MVIS lol. Skepticism only goes one way with him.

I assume you're still in this [position](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/s/eOlQKkEpPO) ?

MVIS said its sensors are now active at mine sites: [https://www.miningmagazine.com/technology/news-analysis/4530374/microvision-attempts-lidar-comeback](https://www.miningmagazine.com/technology/news-analysis/4530374/microvision-attempts-lidar-comeback)

Lost thousands on MMAT, still own MMATQ and sent Proof of Interest to the court in 2024 - Interesting that this is also of interest to a frequent MVIS poster.