HIFS
Hingham Institution for Saving
stock NASDAQ

**Summary:** All of the below was very obvious to me at the time. The risks were minute. The rewards were great. My process is… I rely on my insights I’ve built over the past 20ish years to make wise judgments in realtime. The “expression” of those realtime judgments converge into investment decisions that seem “obvious”. I have never done well on an investment I needed to open Excel to make.
all the "reading" i do is more to get familiarity with a company and to grow base knowledge/prowess within a chosen industry.
when it comes time to make an actual investment, it's typically a no brainer.
For me, I know banking, utilities, and software. I've worked in these industries directly or indirectly and so understand when business economics are making a good showing, and when they're not.
I bought a lot of banks in the aftermath of $SVB collapse.
There were a couple of names that traded very cheaply in discount. $BAC \~$27 and roughly doubled from my purchase. $HIFS \~$188 and roughly doubled on my purchase.
for $BAC their liability sensitivity and "slow book" makes them appear poor under sever inversion. but their capital position is string and ultimately, as a money center bank, would not participate in the troubles of $SVB. obvious buy.
for $HIFS their use of FHLB funds has been known for many decades and the banks views those wholesale deposits as part of their deposit base and not part of "emergency measures". The banks liability sensitivity and lack of hedging combined with over-lending in cheap debt COVID years was a head-wind, but temporary. The sensitivity of FHLB deposits to 10Y rates was also temporary as when the short term debt rerate the apparent challenges in the book’s funding diminish overnight. the bank had healthy allocation, good underwriting, healthy BV growth, and good earnings. The second the FED lowered short terms rates and inflation began ticking down, the stock re-rated to \~82% from my purchase price... overnight. My overall thesis which I felt encapsulated all the above in a single, word friendly metric? $HIFS was trading at \~75%-90% of BV. They typically trade at \~1.5%-2% BV. Easy win. All I had to do was wait. I doubled that money in \~1.75 years.
I made another trade in COVID years with a gas compression company trading very predictably around their ex div date. They were in danger of breaching debt covenants. for midstream LNG MLPs this means they would suspend their dividends to LPs. This is a death sentence for these types of stock because retirees invest in them heavily ( i.e. very dividend sensitive investors). The dividend is attractive because those paid to LPs are considered return of capital not qualified divides. In other words: it’s a non-taxable event. So… each day approaching the ex div day is was becoming much more likely the firm would pay its dividend. Marginal buyers pile in. stock appreciates. Ex div date comes. The next dividend in not “secure”. Marginal sellers take over. Stock price falls. It was all very predictable. I took long and short sides of the trade and made good money.

**Summary:** All of the below was very obvious to me at the time. The risks were minute. The rewards were great. My process is… I rely on my insights I’ve built over the past 20ish years to make wise judgments in realtime. The “expression” of those realtime judgments converge into investment decisions that seem “obvious”. I have never done well on an investment I needed to open Excel to make.
all the "reading" i do is more to get familiarity with a company and to grow base knowledge/prowess within a chosen industry.
when it comes time to make an actual investment, it's typically a no brainer.
For me, I know banking, utilities, and software. I've worked in these industries directly or indirectly and so understand when business economics are making a good showing, and when they're not.
I bought a lot of banks in the aftermath of $SVB collapse.
There were a couple of names that traded very cheaply in discount. $BAC \~$27 and roughly doubled from my purchase. $HIFS \~$188 and roughly doubled on my purchase.
for $BAC their liability sensitivity and "slow book" makes them appear poor under sever inversion. but their capital position is string and ultimately, as a money center bank, would not participate in the troubles of $SVB. obvious buy.
for $HIFS their use of FHLB funds has been known for many decades and the banks views those wholesale deposits as part of their deposit base and not part of "emergency measures". The banks liability sensitivity and lack of hedging combined with over-lending in cheap debt COVID years was a head-wind, but temporary. The sensitivity of FHLB deposits to 10Y rates was also temporary as when the short term debt rerate the apparent challenges in the book’s funding diminish overnight. the bank had healthy allocation, good underwriting, healthy BV growth, and good earnings. The second the FED lowered short terms rates and inflation began ticking down, the stock re-rated to \~82% from my purchase price... overnight. My overall thesis which I felt encapsulated all the above in a single, word friendly metric? $HIFS was trading at \~75%-90% of BV. They typically trade at \~1.5%-2% BV. Easy win. All I had to do was wait. I doubled that money in \~1.75 years.
I made another trade in COVID years with a gas compression company trading very predictably around their ex div date. They were in danger of breaching debt covenants. for midstream LNG MLPs this means they would suspend their dividends to LPs. This is a death sentence for these types of stock because retirees invest in them heavily ( i.e. very dividend sensitive investors). The dividend is attractive because those paid to LPs are considered return of capital not qualified divides. In other words: it’s a non-taxable event. So… each day approaching the ex div day is was becoming much more likely the firm would pay its dividend. Marginal buyers pile in. stock appreciates. Ex div date comes. The next dividend in not “secure”. Marginal sellers take over. Stock price falls. It was all very predictable. I took long and short sides of the trade and made good money.