EPRX
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Been going through the sub $10 FDA calendar this week and something jumped out that I don't think I've seen this badly since 2022. There are 257 biotechs under $10 with a dated catalyst ahead, 624 catalysts total, 50 of them inside 90 days. Ten of those companies are now trading below the cash sitting on their balance sheet. Not cheap on a DCF, not cheap on some pipeline model. The market is paying less than the bank account, and there's a dated event on the calendar.
That usually means one of two things. Either the market thinks the cash is going to get burned on something worthless, or people just stopped looking. Worth sorting out which.
KPTI (Karyopharm), around $2
This is the one I keep coming back to. Roughly $46M market cap against about $91M in cash and marketable securities. Selinexor is already approved and selling, it's an XPO1 inhibitor, and the sNDA in front of the FDA is for combining it with ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis. Aug 31. That combo matters because ruxolitinib alone leaves a lot on the table in that population and the combination data was the whole reason this had a bid a year ago.
Now the reason it's this cheap, the stock is down about 80% in a month. Whatever the market decided in July, it decided hard. And the balance sheet is genuinely tight, roughly 9 months of runway, so a raise is a real possibility and probably a bad one at this price.
But here's the part that made me actually sit up. 35% of the float is short with something like 17 days to cover. And 7 specialist funds have added shares three quarters in a row, which is not what you'd expect if the smart money agreed with the tape. Somebody is wrong here and I genuinely don't know who.
I'd size this small. It's a real shot on goal but the runway means you can be right on the drug and still get diluted before you get paid.
CAPR (Capricor), $4.20
Nearest hard date on the whole board. PDUFA for Deramiocel in Duchenne on Aug 22, so 17 days from now.
Deramiocel is cell therapy for the cardiomyopathy side of Duchenne, which is what actually kills these kids. That's not a crowded space and it's not a me-too.
The setup is strange though and I want to be honest that I don't fully understand it. This thing traded at $36 within the last month and it's $4.20 now. Down 82%. Something happened in July that I haven't fully reconstructed and I'd want to before putting size on. But the balance sheet came through it fine, about $279M in liquidity against a $243M market cap, so it's the second below-cash name here, with 26 months of runway. They're not going to get forced into anything.
37% of the float is short. 8 funds have been adding for three straight quarters. Options are pricing a ±75% move into the print and this has by far the deepest options chain of anything on this list, around 200k contracts of open interest, so that number is real rather than two guys trading a dead chain.
Binary in 17 days with a wrecked chart and a clean balance sheet. That's about as pure a setup as biotech offers, in both directions.
ALT (Altimmune), $3.08
Different reason. Pemvidutide is a GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist and they're running it in alcohol use disorder, which is a genuinely interesting place to point that mechanism. Everyone's crowded into obesity and MASH. Almost nobody is running these in addiction.
What makes this one comfortable is the balance sheet. $332M in liquidity and something like 45 months of runway, so there's no gun to their head. And 46% of the float is short, which is the highest on the board, with three insiders buying on the open market.
Short interest that heavy against a company that doesn't need money is a different animal than short interest against a company that does.
CMPX (Compass), $1.95
Tovecimig is a DLL4 x VEGF-A bispecific in biliary tract cancer, second line, data Oct 24. 41% of the float is short with about 16 days to cover, 11 funds hold it, and two officers bought on the open market. Not directors, actual officers. Roughly 31 months of runway.
Also worth a look: ZURA at $5.79 (tibulizumab in hidradenitis, topline this quarter, 8 funds added 72% last quarter, an insider bought, 33 months of cash), ZNTL at $4.84 (azenosertib, WEE1 inhibitor in platinum resistant ovarian, Oct 23, options pricing ±106%), and IVVD at $0.59 which is the third below-cash name but I like it less because funds trimmed 35% and insiders have been selling.
One thing before anyone misreads this
Implied move tells you how big the swing is going to be, not which way. Every name here can gap either direction. I'm posting these because they're set up to move violently, not because I think they all go up.
Stuff that looked great and wasn't
TLSA screened at a ±200% implied move and MNOV at ±104%. MNOV's entire options chain has 62 contracts of open interest. That's not a signal, that's two people. EPRX as well.
If an implied move looks incredible on a chain nobody trades, it's the chain.
What I'm skipping
Anything under about 3 months of cash, and I don't care how good the science is. OCGN is at 1.5 months and its Stargardt gene therapy models at 70% odds, and I'm still not touching it, because they're going to have to raise into that readout and it caps whatever you were there for. PYXS 2 months. INO 2.4. CNTB dropped off my list this week when the liquidity numbers got recalculated and it came out distressed at 5.8 months.
Low runway names absolutely move more. They also move the wrong way more, and you don't get to pick.
Same lens as always. Market cap first, then cash against burn, then options IV, then whether the biotech funds are adding or trimming, then insiders, and then a dated catalyst you can actually sit and wait for.
Not advice, obviously. Size for being wrong. And I do own a few of them. fyi three weeks ago, I added AUTL to my long-term commercial biotech names.

Been going through the sub $10 FDA calendar this week and something jumped out that I don't think I've seen this badly since 2022. There are 257 biotechs under $10 with a dated catalyst ahead, 624 catalysts total, 50 of them inside 90 days. Ten of those companies are now trading below the cash sitting on their balance sheet. Not cheap on a DCF, not cheap on some pipeline model. The market is paying less than the bank account, and there's a dated event on the calendar.
That usually means one of two things. Either the market thinks the cash is going to get burned on something worthless, or people just stopped looking. Worth sorting out which.
KPTI (Karyopharm), around $2
This is the one I keep coming back to. Roughly $46M market cap against about $91M in cash and marketable securities. Selinexor is already approved and selling, it's an XPO1 inhibitor, and the sNDA in front of the FDA is for combining it with ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis. Aug 31. That combo matters because ruxolitinib alone leaves a lot on the table in that population and the combination data was the whole reason this had a bid a year ago.
Now the reason it's this cheap, the stock is down about 80% in a month. Whatever the market decided in July, it decided hard. And the balance sheet is genuinely tight, roughly 9 months of runway, so a raise is a real possibility and probably a bad one at this price.
But here's the part that made me actually sit up. 35% of the float is short with something like 17 days to cover. And 7 specialist funds have added shares three quarters in a row, which is not what you'd expect if the smart money agreed with the tape. Somebody is wrong here and I genuinely don't know who.
I'd size this small. It's a real shot on goal but the runway means you can be right on the drug and still get diluted before you get paid.
CAPR (Capricor), $4.20
Nearest hard date on the whole board. PDUFA for Deramiocel in Duchenne on Aug 22, so 17 days from now.
Deramiocel is cell therapy for the cardiomyopathy side of Duchenne, which is what actually kills these kids. That's not a crowded space and it's not a me-too.
The setup is strange though and I want to be honest that I don't fully understand it. This thing traded at $36 within the last month and it's $4.20 now. Down 82%. Something happened in July that I haven't fully reconstructed and I'd want to before putting size on. But the balance sheet came through it fine, about $279M in liquidity against a $243M market cap, so it's the second below-cash name here, with 26 months of runway. They're not going to get forced into anything.
37% of the float is short. 8 funds have been adding for three straight quarters. Options are pricing a ±75% move into the print and this has by far the deepest options chain of anything on this list, around 200k contracts of open interest, so that number is real rather than two guys trading a dead chain.
Binary in 17 days with a wrecked chart and a clean balance sheet. That's about as pure a setup as biotech offers, in both directions.
ALT (Altimmune), $3.08
Different reason. Pemvidutide is a GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist and they're running it in alcohol use disorder, which is a genuinely interesting place to point that mechanism. Everyone's crowded into obesity and MASH. Almost nobody is running these in addiction.
What makes this one comfortable is the balance sheet. $332M in liquidity and something like 45 months of runway, so there's no gun to their head. And 46% of the float is short, which is the highest on the board, with three insiders buying on the open market.
Short interest that heavy against a company that doesn't need money is a different animal than short interest against a company that does.
CMPX (Compass), $1.95
Tovecimig is a DLL4 x VEGF-A bispecific in biliary tract cancer, second line, data Oct 24. 41% of the float is short with about 16 days to cover, 11 funds hold it, and two officers bought on the open market. Not directors, actual officers. Roughly 31 months of runway.
Also worth a look: ZURA at $5.79 (tibulizumab in hidradenitis, topline this quarter, 8 funds added 72% last quarter, an insider bought, 33 months of cash), ZNTL at $4.84 (azenosertib, WEE1 inhibitor in platinum resistant ovarian, Oct 23, options pricing ±106%), and IVVD at $0.59 which is the third below-cash name but I like it less because funds trimmed 35% and insiders have been selling.
One thing before anyone misreads this
Implied move tells you how big the swing is going to be, not which way. Every name here can gap either direction. I'm posting these because they're set up to move violently, not because I think they all go up.
Stuff that looked great and wasn't
TLSA screened at a ±200% implied move and MNOV at ±104%. MNOV's entire options chain has 62 contracts of open interest. That's not a signal, that's two people. EPRX as well.
If an implied move looks incredible on a chain nobody trades, it's the chain.
What I'm skipping
Anything under about 3 months of cash, and I don't care how good the science is. OCGN is at 1.5 months and its Stargardt gene therapy models at 70% odds, and I'm still not touching it, because they're going to have to raise into that readout and it caps whatever you were there for. PYXS 2 months. INO 2.4. CNTB dropped off my list this week when the liquidity numbers got recalculated and it came out distressed at 5.8 months.
Low runway names absolutely move more. They also move the wrong way more, and you don't get to pick.
Same lens as always. Market cap first, then cash against burn, then options IV, then whether the biotech funds are adding or trimming, then insiders, and then a dated catalyst you can actually sit and wait for.
Not advice, obviously. Size for being wrong. And I do own a few of them. fyi three weeks ago, I added AUTL to my long-term commercial biotech names.