DAVE Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Last week we ran an exercise that looked beyond whether I simply liked a company. I wanted to know whether the business, current valuation, profitability, long-term trend, downside risk, and potential upside all worked together at the current price.
Today I’m doing the same thing with 16 companies submitted for review.
The prices below were manually checked before I began the exercise. My overall grade is the most important number. I am deliberately penalizing companies that are unprofitable, generate little or no meaningful revenue, have persistent losses, or have spent years moving in the wrong direction. A speculative company can have enormous theoretical upside and still receive a poor grade.
Likewise, a great company does not automatically get an A. If I believe too much future growth is already priced into the stock, its reward-to-risk can still produce a mediocre setup.
Here they are, worst to best.
\#16 — QNC | Grade: D-
Current Price: $2.64
Bull Target: $4.00
Bear Target: $1.00
Conviction: 3.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.83:1
Risk: Very High
This is almost entirely a speculative future-growth story for me. Quantum eMotion generated only about $16,000 of trailing revenue while losing roughly $9.86 million. That is exactly the type of situation where I dramatically reduce conviction regardless of how exciting the technology sounds.
\#15 — OCGN | Grade: D
Current Price: $1.02
Bull Target: $3.00
Bear Target: $0.40
Conviction: 3.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 3.19:1
Risk: Very High
The mathematical upside is enormous, but this demonstrates why reward-to-risk alone cannot determine my grade. Ocugen generated only about $4.6 million of trailing revenue while losing roughly $81.8 million, following years of losses. Clinical success could completely change the story, but until the underlying business changes, I treat this as speculation rather than a normal investment.
\#14 — USAR | Grade: D+
Current Price: $15.18
Bull Target: $22
Bear Target: $7
Conviction: 4.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.83:1
Risk: Very High
USA Rare Earth has an interesting strategic story, but the financials don't yet justify high conviction. Trailing operating losses are roughly $113 million and trailing net losses roughly $311 million. With limited operating history as a public company and a business still needing to prove its economics, I need a much larger margin of safety.
\#13 — BTDR | Grade: C-
Current Price: $11.51
Bull Target: $20
Bear Target: $6
Conviction: 4.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.54:1
Risk: High
Bitdeer has real revenue and substantial growth, which separates it from the bottom three. But trailing revenue of roughly $812 million still came with approximately $229 million in net losses. Add Bitcoin exposure and the capital-intensive nature of the business, and I cannot justify high conviction despite meaningful upside.
\#12 — CRSP | Grade: C
Current Price: $54.23
Bull Target: $85
Bear Target: $35
Conviction: 5.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.60:1
Risk: High
CRISPR Therapeutics may have tremendous long-term scientific potential, but I cannot grade biotechnology purely on potential. Revenue fell sharply in 2025 and the company lost approximately $582 million. The pipeline can create enormous value, but binary clinical and commercialization risks keep conviction restrained.
\#11 — PUMP | Grade: C
Current Price: $9.59
Bull Target: $13
Bear Target: $6.50
Conviction: 5.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.10:1
Risk: Mid-High
ProPetro is more established than the speculative companies above it, but recent financial direction concerns me. Trailing revenue has declined and the company slipped back to a roughly $13 million trailing loss after barely remaining profitable in 2025. I don't see enough reward relative to the cyclical downside to raise conviction substantially.
\#10 — CRSR | Grade: C+
Current Price: $13.50
Bull Target: $18
Bear Target: $9
Conviction: 5.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.00:1
Risk: Mid-High
Corsair has improved. It is profitable again, producing roughly $33 million in trailing net income and nearly $90 million in free cash flow. But margins remain thin, and after the stock's strong recovery I don't see enough asymmetric upside at this particular price to push it higher.
\#9 — CAT | Grade: B-
Current Price: $821.18
Bull Target: $900
Bear Target: $620
Conviction: 6.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.39:1
Risk: Mid
This is where we start seeing the difference between a great company and a great entry. Caterpillar is enormously profitable, with about $10.8 billion in trailing net income, and revenue is up strongly versus 2021. I like the business considerably more than I like the setup at $821. The downside required to normalize valuation is larger than the upside I'm comfortable underwriting over 12–18 months.
\#8 — JBL | Grade: B-
Current Price: $316.74
Bull Target: $365
Bear Target: $240
Conviction: 6.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.63:1
Risk: Mid
Jabil is profitable and producing roughly $862 million in trailing net income, but its revenue history has been more uneven than some of the higher-ranked businesses. At $316.74, I think much of the enthusiasm is already reflected in the stock. I would prefer a better entry.
\#7 — PWR | Grade: B
Current Price: $649
Bull Target: $750
Bear Target: $500
Conviction: 7.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.68:1
Risk: Mid
Quanta is exactly the type of business whose fundamentals I like. Revenue increased from roughly $13 billion in 2021 to almost $33 billion trailing, while net income increased from roughly $486 million to $1.33 billion. The only thing holding the grade down is price. The business deserves high conviction; today's entry deserves more caution.
\#6 — CEG | Grade: B
Current Price: $263
Bull Target: $340
Bear Target: $190
Conviction: 7.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.05:1
Risk: Mid
Constellation has undergone a substantial profitability transformation. Trailing net income is approximately $3.47 billion versus losses in 2021 and 2022. Nuclear power and electricity demand provide an attractive long-term thesis, but after the stock's enormous re-rating I want to remain disciplined about valuation.
\#5 — ABT | Grade: B+
Current Price: $101.29
Bull Target: $125
Bear Target: $85
Conviction: 8.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.45:1
Risk: Low-Mid
Abbott gives me something many of the lower-ranked companies don't: a long-established profitable business and considerably lower fundamental risk. Revenue has returned to growth and trailing net income is about $5.4 billion. The upside isn't explosive, but this exercise rewards probability and downside protection, not excitement.
\#4 — TXRH | Grade: A-
Current Price: $160
Bull Target: $215
Bear Target: $135
Conviction: 8.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 2.20:1
Risk: Low-Mid
Texas Roadhouse combines profitability with a strong multi-year growth record. Revenue climbed from roughly $3.46 billion in 2021 to $6.23 billion trailing, while trailing net income sits above $400 million. At $160, the stock also gives me something many excellent companies on this list don't: an entry where the potential upside begins to materially outweigh my estimated downside.
\#3 — DAVE | Grade: A-
Current Price: $330
Bull Target: $430
Bear Target: $220
Conviction: 8.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 0.91:1
Risk: Mid-High
Dave is unusual because it transformed itself from a money-losing business into a highly profitable growth company. Revenue rose from about $153 million in 2021 to roughly $644 million trailing, while trailing net income reached approximately $223 million. That accelerating profitability deserves significant credit. The primary reason this isn't higher is valuation and the amount of downside possible if growth expectations reset.
\#2 — APH | Grade: A
Current Price: $84.50
Bull Target: $105
Bear Target: $68
Conviction: 9.0/10
Reward-to-Risk: 1.24:1
Risk: Low-Mid
Amphenol has one of the strongest fundamental profiles in the entire group. Revenue increased from about $10.9 billion in 2021 to roughly $29 billion trailing, while net income expanded from approximately $1.6 billion to $5.1 billion. That is the kind of five-year trajectory I want to see from a profitable company. The valuation keeps it from being an automatic A+, but the quality is difficult to ignore.
\#1 — ORCL | Grade: A+
Current Price: $137
Bull Target: $210
Bear Target: $110
Conviction: 9.5/10
Reward-to-Risk: 2.70:1
Risk: Low-Mid
Oracle comes out on top because I believe the combination of profitability, accelerating growth, long-term business quality and the current price creates the strongest overall setup of these 16.
Trailing revenue is roughly $71.8 billion and net income approximately $18.7 billion. Revenue has grown from about $42.4 billion in fiscal 2022, while net income increased from roughly $6.7 billion to $18.7 billion. At $137, I'm not being asked to pay the kind of valuation I would expect after that level of earnings expansion.
For this exercise, that combination earns my highest conviction.
Final Ranking
Worst → Best
16. QNC — D-
17. OCGN — D
18. USAR — D+
19. BTDR — C-
20. CRSP — C
21. PUMP — C
22. CRSR — C+
23. CAT — B-
24. JBL — B-
25. PWR — B
26. CEG — B
27. ABT — B+
28. TXRH — A-
29. DAVE — A-
30. APH — A
31. ORCL — A+
The biggest lesson from this exercise is that upside alone means very little to me.
Some of the lowest-ranked companies could theoretically double, triple, or more. But when a company isn't profitable, produces little meaningful revenue, continually burns cash, or has spent years failing to create shareholder value, I deliberately reduce my conviction.
At the same time, I won't automatically give a great company a great grade. Price matters. CAT, PWR and JBL are examples where I can respect the underlying business while still believing the current entry leaves less room for error.
I would rather own a profitable, growing business at a reasonable price with a favorable probability of success than chase the biggest theoretical upside on a spreadsheet.
Disclosure: This is my personal research and educational analysis, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Bull and bear targets are my estimates for approximately the next 12–18 months and are not guarantees. Markets, company fundamentals, earnings, news and valuations can change quickly. I may or may not own securities discussed here, or may be planning to establish a position shortly. Always perform your own due diligence and make investment decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance.