CME
CME Group Inc.
stock NASDAQ

Ava has lot of EU futures too but only a small choice of CME futures, many are missing. And no CME options, they do their own CFD based option thing on some cash indices and recently KO deruvatives ... that CFD and ooptions platform is not for US based traders... but L2 for free

"Stop hunt" is muddying together several different things.
Stops absolutely cluster around predictable levels (NOTE: *cluster*, not "to the tick"). That’s not ICT lore. Carol Osler documented it using actual FX dealer order data: stops tended to cluster around round numbers and technical levels, and when triggered they could accelerate price through positive-feedback order flow. The NY Fed published the research.
But that's very different from saying "the market saw my stop and went there to take it."
You're paper trading, so obviously nobody is hunting *your* stop. And on CME, stop orders generally aren’t displayed as resting liquidity before they're triggered.
Actual deliberate stop running does exist. The CFTC has prosecuted precious metals traders for intentionally trading through levels to trigger customer stops they knew were there. But that's a very specific thing. A wick through a swing low followed by a reversal is *not* evidence that happened.
The more useful model is simpler.
There's an obvious low. Lots of traders independently put stops below it because they’re looking at the same structure. Price reaches that area. Stops trigger and become aggressive selling.
Then one of two things happens:
1. Passive buyers absorb that selling and price rejects the level.
2. Or they don't, and price keeps going.
Same "liquidity sweep". Completely different outcome.
So "wait for them to take the stops" isn't much of a trading model.
The reaction to the order flow is the information.
And if you're consistently right on direction but getting stopped first, test that instead of explaining it as "manipulation".
Take your next 50–100 setups. Measure the maximum adverse excursion (MAE) of trades that eventually worked. Compare that with your stop distance, local volatility, and where the trade was actually invalidated.
If your winners routinely trade through your stop first, your entry/stop model is wrong for the normal noise of the setup.
If they don't, you may just be remembering the spectacular "one tick through my stop and gone" cases.
One explanation is testable, the other is a story.

Do you want to excel later in life, make good plays w/ options and DCA into long term holds / exercise contracts? Or do you want to bet your money on 15 min speculative asset gambles on platforms that arent even following CME prices properly. Do better, bro.

a few different things are going on.
commercials aren't one kind of trader. in crude they're mostly producers and refiners hedging physical barrels, and they hedge on their production and refining calendar, not off the chart. Brent is on ICE with its own report and WTI on NYMEX, and the hedgers behind them are different companies (a lot of WTI hedging is US shale), so the two can split for reasons that have nothing to do with price.
in currencies the legacy "commercial" bucket is mostly dealer banks sitting on the other side of client flow, so they can add longs and shorts at the same time because they're running options and spread books. the TFF report breaks that into dealers, asset managers and hedge funds and is far more readable for FX.
the sudden OI drops on currency futures are the quarterly roll. CME FX contracts expire on the IMM dates in March, June, September and December, positions get rolled or closed in the weeks before, total OI falls off a cliff and then rebuilds. we just had one in September.
the report tells you who holds what, not why. the why is usually somebody's business calendar.

We *call* this the weekly Safe Haven thread, but it might stay up for more than a week.
For the options questions you wanted to ask, but were afraid to.
**There are no stupid questions.**   **Fire away.**
This project succeeds via thoughtful sharing of knowledge.
**You, too, are invited to respond to these questions.**
This is a weekly rotation with past threads linked below.
----
###**BEFORE POSTING, PLEASE REVIEW THE BELOW LIST OF FREQUENT ANSWERS.** [.](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/subreddit_resources)
[..](https://www.reddit.com/r/optionsmods/wiki/)
---
**As a general rule: "NEVER" EXERCISE YOUR LONG CALL!**
A common beginner's mistake stems from the belief that exercising is the only way to realize a gain on a long call. It is not. Sell to close is the best way to realize a gain, almost always.
**Exercising throws away [extrinsic value](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/extrinsic_value) that selling retrieves.**
**Simply sell your (long) options, to close the position, to harvest value, for a gain or loss.**
**Your break-even is the cost of your option when you are selling.**
**If exercising (a call), your breakeven is the strike price plus the debit cost to enter the position.**
Further reading:
**[Monday School: Exercise and Expiration are not what you think they are.](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/m5r8mi/monday_school_exercise_and_expiration_are_not/)**
**As another general rule, don't hold option trades through expiration.**
Expiration introduces complex risks that can catch you by surprise. Here is just one [horror story](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/ipqkua/fridays_tsla_lesson_close_positions_before/) of an expiration surprise that could have been avoided if the trade had been closed before expiration.
---
**Key informational links**
• [Options FAQ / Wiki: Frequent Answers to Questions](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq)
• [Options Toolbox Links / Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/toolbox/links)
• [Options Glossary](https://www.optionseducation.org/referencelibrary/optionsglossary)
• [List of Recommended Options Books](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/8qfs14/options_book_list_review_of_all_books_that_helped/)
• [Introduction to Options (The Options Playbook)](https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/)
• [The complete r/options side-bar informational links (made visible for mobile app users.)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/about/sidebar)
• [Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (Options Clearing Corporation)](
https://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp)
• [Binary options and Fraud (Securities Exchange Commission)](https://www.sec.gov/files/ia_binary.pdf)
[.](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/subreddit_resources)
----
**Getting started in options**
• [Calls and puts, long and short, an introduction (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/basics)
• [Options Trading Introduction for Beginners (Investing Fuse)](https://investingfuse.com/options-trading-for-beginners/)
• [Options Basics (begals)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/gh9vpl/options_basics/)
• [Exercise & Assignment - A Guide (ScottishTrader)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/exercise)
• [Why Options Are Rarely Exercised - Chris Butler - Project Option (18 minutes)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsZsqiBFnmo)
• [LEAPS calls explained - Chris Butler - Project Option (13 minute video)](https://youtu.be/CokqQwv-IqI?si=tckZMKnQptWGZJef)
• [I just made (or lost) $___. Should I close the trade? (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/eunnko/noob_safe_haven_thread_jan_27_feb_02_2020/fg6jjjz/)
• [Disclose option position details, for a useful response](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/trade_details)
• [OptionAlpha Trading and Options Handbook](https://optionalpha.com/handbook)
• [Options Trading Concepts -- Mike & His White Board (TastyTrade)(about 120 10-minute episodes)](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPVve34yolHY43YaBegHMzN9WjrTnQfFr)
• [Am I a Pattern Day Trader? Know the Day-Trading Margin Requirements (FINRA)](https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/day-trading-margin-requirements-know-rules)
• [How To Avoid Becoming a Pattern Day Trader (Founders Guide)](https://foundersguide.com/pattern-day-trader/)
---
**Introductory Trading Commentary**
   • **[Monday School Introductory trade planning advice (PapaCharlie9)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/mondayschool)**
  **Strike Price**
   • [Options Basics: How to Pick the Right Strike Price (Elvis Picardo - Investopedia)](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021014/options-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp)
   • [High Probability Options Trading Defined (Kirk DuPlessis, Option Alpha)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcWHh2co80M)
  **Breakeven**
   • [Your break-even (at expiration) isn't as important as you think it is (PapaCharlie9)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/m0m7at/monday_school_your_breakeven_isnt_as_important_as/)
  **Expiration**
   • [Options Expiration & Assignment (Option Alpha)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnUsu1y1W9w)
   • [Expiration times and dates (Investopedia)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expiration-time.asp)
  **Greeks**
   • [Options Pricing & The Greeks (Option Alpha) (30 minutes)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCJcEOYuuII)
   • [Options Greeks (captut)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/hl8i2n/option_greeks_101)
  **Trading and Strategy**
   • [Fishing for a price: price discovery and orders](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/introduction#wiki_minimizing_bid-ask_spreads_.28high-volume_options_are_best.29)
   • [Common mistakes and useful advice for new options traders (wiki)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/introduction#wiki_common_mistakes_and_useful_advice_for__new_options_traders)
   • [Common Intra-Day Stock Market Patterns - (Cory Mitchell - The Balance)](https://www.thebalance.com/common-intra-day-stock-market-patterns-1031456)
   • [The three best options strategies for earnings reports (Option Alpha)](https://optionalpha.com/blog/the-three-best-option-strategies-for-earnings)
---
**Managing Trades**
• [Managing long calls - a summary (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/managing_long_calls)
• [The diagonal call calendar spread, misnamed as the "poor man's covered call" (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/diagonal_calendars)
• [Selected Option Positions and Trade Management (Wiki)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/positions)
**Why did my options lose value when the stock price moved favorably?**
• [Options extrinsic and intrinsic value, an introduction (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/extrinsic_value)

**Trade planning, risk reduction, trade size, probability and luck**
• [Exit-first trade planning, and a risk-reduction checklist (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/trade_planning)
• [Monday School: A trade plan is more important than you think it is (PapaCharlie9)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/mpk6yf/monday_school_a_trade_plan_is_more_important_than/)
• [Applying Expected Value Concepts to Option Investing (Option Alpha)](https://optionalpha.com/blog/how-to-calculate-expected-value)
• [Risk Management, or How to Not Lose Your House (boii0708) (March 6 2021)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/lyp1uc/risk_management_or_how_to_not_lose_your_house/)
• [Trade Checklists and Guides (Option Alpha)](https://optionalpha.com/members/guides-checklists)
• [Planning for trades to fail. (John Carter) (at 90 seconds)](https://youtu.be/N5_OkdvPmUI?t=90)
• [Poker Wisdom for Option Traders: The Evils of Results-Oriented Thinking (PapaCharlie9)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/qfq82a/poker_wisdom_for_option_traders_the_evils_of/)
**Minimizing Bid-Ask Spreads (high-volume options are best)**
• [Price discovery for wide bid-ask spreads (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/price_discovery)
• [List of option activity by underlying (Market Chameleon)](https://marketchameleon.com/Reports/optionVolumeReport)
**Closing out a trade**
• [Most options positions are closed before expiration (Options Playbook)](https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/closing-option-position/)
• [Risk to reward ratios change: a reason for early exit (Redtexture)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/risk_reward_and_exits)
• [Guide: When to Exit Various Positions](
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/whentoexit)
• [Close positions before expiration: TSLA decline after market close (PapaCharlie9) (September 11, 2020)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/ipqkua/fridays_tsla_lesson_close_positions_before/)
• [5 Tips For Exiting Trades (OptionStalker)](
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/qtwsm5/5_tips_for_exiting_trades/)
• [Why stop loss option orders are a bad idea](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/stop_loss)
---
**Options exchange operations and processes**
• [Options Adjustments for Mergers, Stock Splits and Special dividends; Options Expiration creation; Strike Price creation; Trading Halts and Market Closings; Options Listing requirements; Collateral Rules; List of Options Exchanges; Market Makers](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/exchange_operations)
• [Options that trade until 4:15 PM (US Eastern) / 3:15 PM (US Central) -- (Tastyworks)](https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000435335-options-that-trade-until-3-15-pm-central-)
---
**Brokers**
• [USA Options Brokers (wiki)](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/brokers)
• [An incomplete list of international brokers trading USA (and European) options](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/brokers/)
---
**Miscellaneous: Volatility, Options Option Chains & Data, Economic Calendars, Futures Options**
• [Graph of the VIX: S&P 500 volatility index (StockCharts)](https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24VIX)
• [Graph of VIX Term Structure (CBOE)](https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/term-structure/)
• [A selected list of option chain & option data websites](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/data_sources)
• [Options on Futures (CME Group)](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/options-on-futures-brochure.pdf)
• [Selected calendars of economic reports and events](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/calendars)
---
Previous weeks' Option Questions Safe Haven threads.

[Complete archive: 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/archive/safe_haven_2026)
---

I’m trying to understand the real-world cost of running a personal automated futures strategy on CME markets, and I’m wondering if anyone here has gone through the same issue.
My intended setup is fairly simple:
CME real-time market data → Rithmic or broker API → Python → signal generation / automated execution
I’m a non-professional individual trader trading only my own account.
I also want to keep a graphical trading platform open for discretionary trading and monitoring, so ideally both:
my Python application and the graphical platform
would receive the same CME market data without requiring two separately billed market-data subscriptions.
The part that surprised me is the CME Non-Display licensing.
From the current CME fee schedule effective June 1, 2026, I can see categories such as:
• User Non-Display Category A
• Managed User Non-Display Category A
and the fees appear potentially significant for a small individual trader.
I have contacted both EdgeClear and Ironbeam directly and am waiting for clarification on how they classify this specific setup, but I would be very interested in hearing from anyone who has actually implemented something similar.
A few questions:
1) If you run your own Python/C++/Java application that consumes real-time CME market data and automatically trades your personal account, are you actually being charged CME Non-Display fees? If yes, which category are you under and approximately how much are you paying per month?
2) Does the situation change if the application only processes real-time data and generates signals, while orders are entered manually?
3) Has anyone managed to use one CME market-data subscription for both an API application and a graphical platform, particularly with Rithmic?
4) If you originally planned to build a direct API-based algo but found the fixed CME/API costs too high, what did you end up doing instead?
For context, Ironbeam has currently quoted me:
native Ironbeam API:
1) no API fee if certain balance/activity requirements are met;
2) Rithmic API connectivity: $100/month;
3) Rithmic market data: $15.50 per exchange;
but I am still waiting for clarification regarding Non-Display licensing and simultaneous API + graphical-platform market-data access.
My concern is not really the technical side — Python/Rithmic/API connectivity is feasible.
The issue is If a retail trader has to pay something like:
API/connectivity + CME market data + $200–$450+ Non-Display licensing + platform costs
every month before even knowing whether the strategy has a sustainable live edge, the fixed-cost hurdle becomes quite significant.
I’m particularly interested in first-hand experiences, especially from individual systematic traders using CME futures
Thanks everyone!!!!

yeah that was my point, badly worded. I don't know of a free one that's genuinely live. closest I've used is CME's SOFR futures strip, the delayed quotes are free on their site and they give you most of the short end. proper live swap quotes are behind Bloomberg or ICE as far as I know.

Thanks for sharing this, very useful.
I'm a non-pro individual looking at algo trading on CME micros (MES/MNQ) via Rithmic, so I'm trying to understand how widespread this is.
A few quick questions if you don't mind:
You mention integrations with IBKR and TradeStation. Have you streamed CME futures data via their APIs without being asked for an ILA or any non-display fee?
Are you going ahead with the ILA, and did CME quote you a specific category/amount?
Which parts of the ILA questionnaire push the cost from \~$400 to "thousands"?
Also curious if anyone has heard of Rithmic-based brokers (AMP, Optimus, EdgeClear, etc.) enforcing the same thing.
Thanks!

Here I thought silver jumped when CME group had multiple "cooling system errors" and had to shut down metals trading. Right after that the LBMA ran out of silver for deliveries and silver went into massive backwardation(meaning silver now is worth more than silver in the future). That was October/November of 2025 btw...just when silver broke out of its 45year prison.

He means they have less jitter/non determinism than competitors. CME has historically tried very hard to minimize variance and get extremely exact packet time stamping for their matching engine.

CME is a very deterministic exchange. And yes, Quincy McKay is a microwave network provider.

im running my algo from a VPS (i rent) in Chicago right next to the CME. To test for latency you login to the machine you run the algo from, get the brokers gateway ip or hostname, then ping the broker server using TCPing

Thursday, Oct 1 has three earnings reports, two macro prints, and the Micron reaction to tonight's report. Horizon is the next few days, because Friday's payrolls follow.
**1. Catalysts**
* **Macro:** ISM Manufacturing is at 10:00 ET (consensus 54.9, prior 54.6), and jobless claims are at 8:30 (consensus 200K, prior 197K) \[1\]. September payrolls follow Friday at 8:30 \[2\].
* **Backdrop:**
* August core PCE printed 3.0% y/y against 3.3% expected \[8\].
* CME odds of an October hike are near even, down from over 70% a week ago \[4\].
* The 30-year yield crossed 5.6%, a high since June 2002 \[3\].
* Brent is about $106.56 \[5\].
* **Earnings:** Nike (est. EPS $0.43), Accenture ($3.18) and McCormick ($0.76) report Oct 1 \[9\]\[10\]\[11\]. Our sources don't confirm whether they report before or after the open.
* **Micron (reported tonight):**
* Revenue was $54.23B and EPS $33.42, against consensus of roughly $51.5B and $31.83 \[14\]\[7\].
* FQ1 guidance is $61.5B revenue and $38.15 EPS \[14\].
* The after-hours reaction is mixed: one report has +0.4% \[15\], another shows a $3.51 drop \[16\].
**2. Names exposed**
|Catalyst|Names|
|:-|:-|
|Micron read-through|MU, plus other AI and memory-chip names (NVDA, semiconductor ETFs)|
|Earnings|NKE, ACN, MKC|
|ISM, claims, payrolls, yields|SPY, TLT|
**3–4. Support and resistance** (6-month pivot clusters)
|Ticker|Last|Support|Resistance|Read|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|MU|$1,065.11|$1,019.76 (4.45% below)|$1,087.78 (2.13% above)|Near resistance; 52-week high is $1,213.37|
|NKE|$35.40|None below|$35.51 (0.31% above), then $38.36|At its 52-week low|
|ACN|$183.37|$178.48 (2.74% below, 4 touches)|$194.42 (6.03% above)|Mid-range, above its 50-day average of $177.45|
|SPY|$762.63|$753.86 (1.16% below, 7 touches)|$772.47 (1.29% above)|Mid-range|
|TLT|$77.78|None below|$82.49 (6.06% above, 14 touches)|At its 6-month low|

**5. Betting markets**
* **Fed:** Kalshi puts a hike by Dec 31 at 84% \[12\]. Polymarket "no change or hike 25 bps" for Oct 27 is 65.5% \[12\].
* **Payrolls:**
* Kalshi gives 28% for above 125K \[13\].
* Polymarket gives 34% for 100–150K and 33.5% for 50–100K \[13\].
* CNBC cites the economist consensus at 84K \[6\].
* **Nike:** Polymarket gives a 44.5% chance of a beat against a $0.45 GAAP EPS threshold, which sits just above the $0.43 consensus \[17\].
* **SPY:** Polymarket gives 49% for a close above $765 on Oct 1 \[18\]. Kalshi gives 58% for the S&P 500 above 7,665 at 2pm \[18\].
**6. Most likely to jump**
* **NKE:** This is the highest-variance setup.
* Bull: the stock is at its 52-week low, so a beat could force a squeeze back toward $38.36.
* Bear: it is down 19.12% over six months and 7.43% over 20 days \[21\]. A miss has no support below $35.40.
* Net: the move is large either way. The upside skew is the opportunistic play, but the market prices only 44.5% odds of a beat.
* **TLT:** It sits at a new low with no support below.
* Bull: a weak ISM or a soft claims print could trigger a bounce, and core PCE already undershot.
* Bear: the 30-year yield is above 5.6% \[3\], and a payrolls beat is likely.
* Net: a downside break is more probable into Friday.
* **MU:** The print beat, but the stock gaps into $1,087.78 resistance and the after-hours reaction is flat. A close above that level would open a move toward $1,213.37, and a failure puts $1,019.76 in play.
* **ACN:** It rose 3.31% into the print \[19\]. $178.48 is the line to hold.
* **SPY:** It is pinned between $753.86 and $772.47, about 1.2% either way. Friday's payrolls matter more than Thursday's data.
* **MKC:** It fell 4.13% into earnings, to $46.40 \[20\]. I did not run support and resistance on it.
**Sources**
* \[1\] U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch — Web Search
* \[2\] Schedule of Selected Releases 2026 — Web Search
* \[3\] Stock Market Today (Sept. 30, 2026): Dow futures rise ahead of key inflation report as Treasury yields surge - TheStreet — Web Search
* \[4\] US stock futures inch up as yields ease, inflation report looms | Reuters — Web Search
* \[5\] Stock market news for Sept. 29, 2026 — Web Search
* \[6\] Prediction market traders September jobs report will beat estimates — Web Search
* \[7\] Micron to report Q4 earnings as memory boom powers on — Web Search
* \[8\] Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected — Web Search
* \[9\] NKE Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · NKE
* \[10\] ACN Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · ACN
* \[11\] MKC Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · MKC
* \[12\] Prediction markets: Fed rate hike October — Source
* \[13\] Prediction markets: September jobs report — Source
* \[14\] Micron Technology, Inc. - Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results — Web Search
* \[15\] Micron rises as Q4 results, guidance top estimates (MU:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha — Web Search
* \[16\] MU Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN — Web Search
* \[17\] Prediction markets: Nike earnings — Source
* \[18\] Prediction markets: S&P 500 close October 2026 — Source
* \[19\] ACN Quote — Live Quote · ACN
* \[20\] MKC Quote — Live Quote · MKC
* \[21\] NKE Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · NKE

I don’t think that’s true - any firm with a reasonable investment can bring together a small group of experienced people and get fast on in-colo stuff. For the inter-colo stuff you can lease a McKay feed etc. I’m not convinced the juice was ever really worth the squeeze for the firms that went all out on being the fastest everywhere on RF, where you really could
monopolise speed.
The most latency-sensitive intra-colo stuff (CME, Deutsche Boerse) is pretty level playing field. Hire the people, pay the salaries, ante up with the exchange, be patient, any firm can be latency competitive.

Tradingview's got a decent free tier for this, you can pull up OIS rates there if you dig into their economic indicators. Not quite as slick as the IRS page on [investing.com](http://investing.com) but it works. Also worth checking the CME and NY Fed sites directly, they sometimes publish daily SOFR/OIS rates with minimal lag.

I’m building a probabilistic equity-research agent implemented as a modular research application that
1. Collects evidence
2. Normalizes and validates that evidence
3. Runs multiple specialized analytical engines
4. Identifies conflicts and interactions between variables
5. Determines what the market already expects
6. Builds conditional future paths
7. Synthesizes those paths probabilistically and determine the most probable 6–12 month trajectory
8. Produces a traceable investment-research conclusion
What I’m building isn’t an AI trading bot, a stock-picking tool, or something that tells you whether a stock is a “buy” or “sell.” It also isn’t primarily a DCF model that tries to calculate what a stock should be worth.
It’s more like an equity research engine. You give it a stock, and it thoroughly analyzes everything that could influence its performance over the next 6–12 months, the company’s fundamentals, earnings and analyst expectations, catalysts, competition, valuation, macroeconomic environment, and market narrative/sentiment.
It then tries to determine the most probable trajectory for the stock over the next 6–12 months, rather than simply giving you a bull case and a bear case.
The output is essentially a probability distribution of possible price trajectories, for example, what probability the system assigns to the stock ending up around $X, $Y, $Z, etc., based on the information and expectations available today.
So the goal isn’t to tell you what to buy. It’s to build a very thorough, evidence-based model of where a stock is most likely headed and what factors could cause that trajectory to change
This engine will make API calls to SEC, FRED, BLS, CME Fedwatch tool, Individual company’s IR page, and various news sources such as Reuters, Bloomberg to fetch live data that feeds into the Narrative engines.
Any thoughts on this?