CCCC
C4 Therapeutics, Inc.
stock NASDAQ

CAPR I wrote up at $4.20 after the 9-3 negative AdCom and around 80% drop in 3 sessions. I thought FDA would probably say no.
Instead FDA extended the PDUFA to Nov 22 after CAPR submitted another year of HOPE-3 follow up and narrowed the label to upper limb function. Its around $9.40 now. So I had the mechanism right and probability wrong. Being wrong in the direction that pays is still being wrong.
Ran the screen again this weekend. 221 biotechs under $10, 425 catalysts total and 102 inside 90 days.
CAPR $9.40, PDUFA Nov 22
Still watching this one hardest. $544M cap, around $238M cash, 22 months runway. 43% short and huge options interest. But days to cover is only 1.6 so I wouldnt build a squeeze thesis here. The AdCom still voted against the drug. Narrowing the indication doesnt create new data. FDA can still say no.
VNDA $5.43, PDUFA Dec 12
Imsidolimab for generalized pustular psoriasis. GEMINI showed 53% skin clearance by week 4 vs 13% placebo. $328M cap, around $170M liquidity, 14% short. Market clearly doesnt like Vandas history with FDA but the data itself looks interesting.
ANNX $4.87, Phase 3 topline 2H 2026
Probably the biggest binary here. ARCHER II in geographic atrophy. Endpoint is prevention of 15 letter vision loss. If positive this could be the first GA drug to actually show protection of vision instead of only slowing lesion growth.
21% short, around +/-96% implied. Only around 12.5 months runway though.
ESMO confe. Oct 23 to 27
CATX $3.13 is probably my favourite here. Updated Phase 1/2a data, $237M cash vs $357M cap, 33 months runway, 24% short and 18 days to cover.
ZNTL $3.99, I still hold this one. Down from $4.84 when I mentioned it in August.
CMPX $2.38, response rate and PFS looked good but OS was flat. ESMO discussion will probably matter more than the headline here.
KPTI $1.79 Still hasnt worked. I had it at $2.04. $41M cap vs around $65M liquidity. 54% short but only around 7 months runway. Very possible to be right on the drug and still get diluted before getting paid.
BFRI $1.61, PDUFA Sep 28
Ameluz expansion into superficial basal cell carcinoma. Pivotal showed 65.5% clearance vs 4.8%. Looks high probability on paper but its a $21M company with around $5M liquidity. Hard to size comfortably. Probably avoiding MAIA, AGEN, ANVS, ALZN and PCSA mainly because runway is terrible. I do have some OSTX from avg. 1.20ish.
PCSA hurts because 5 officers bought shares on the open market. Strong insider signal but financing risk is stronger for me. Also one reminder on options numbers. Expiry matters a lot. CCCC January options imply around +/-61%, but October options that actually cover the September catalyst imply only around +/-25%.
I also still own a few of these in another broker account from last year, so im not looking at all of them from a completely clean slate.

CAPR I wrote up at $4.20 after the 9-3 negative AdCom and around 80% drop in 3 sessions. I thought FDA would probably say no.
Instead FDA extended the PDUFA to Nov 22 after CAPR submitted another year of HOPE-3 follow up and narrowed the label to upper limb function. Its around $9.40 now. So I had the mechanism right and probability wrong. Being wrong in the direction that pays is still being wrong.
Ran the screen again this weekend. 221 biotechs under $10, 425 catalysts total and 102 inside 90 days.
CAPR $9.40, PDUFA Nov 22
Still watching this one hardest. $544M cap, around $238M cash, 22 months runway. 43% short and huge options interest. But days to cover is only 1.6 so I wouldnt build a squeeze thesis here. The AdCom still voted against the drug. Narrowing the indication doesnt create new data. FDA can still say no.
VNDA $5.43, PDUFA Dec 12
Imsidolimab for generalized pustular psoriasis. GEMINI showed 53% skin clearance by week 4 vs 13% placebo. $328M cap, around $170M liquidity, 14% short. Market clearly doesnt like Vandas history with FDA but the data itself looks interesting.
ANNX $4.87, Phase 3 topline 2H 2026
Probably the biggest binary here. ARCHER II in geographic atrophy. Endpoint is prevention of 15 letter vision loss. If positive this could be the first GA drug to actually show protection of vision instead of only slowing lesion growth.
21% short, around +/-96% implied. Only around 12.5 months runway though.
ESMO confe. Oct 23 to 27
CATX $3.13 is probably my favourite here. Updated Phase 1/2a data, $237M cash vs $357M cap, 33 months runway, 24% short and 18 days to cover.
ZNTL $3.99, I still hold this one. Down from $4.84 when I mentioned it in August.
CMPX $2.38, response rate and PFS looked good but OS was flat. ESMO discussion will probably matter more than the headline here.
KPTI $1.79 Still hasnt worked. I had it at $2.04. $41M cap vs around $65M liquidity. 54% short but only around 7 months runway. Very possible to be right on the drug and still get diluted before getting paid.
BFRI $1.61, PDUFA Sep 28
Ameluz expansion into superficial basal cell carcinoma. Pivotal showed 65.5% clearance vs 4.8%. Looks high probability on paper but its a $21M company with around $5M liquidity. Hard to size comfortably. Probably avoiding MAIA, AGEN, ANVS, ALZN and PCSA mainly because runway is terrible. I do have some OSTX from avg. 1.20ish.
PCSA hurts because 5 officers bought shares on the open market. Strong insider signal but financing risk is stronger for me. Also one reminder on options numbers. Expiry matters a lot. CCCC January options imply around +/-61%, but October options that actually cover the September catalyst imply only around +/-25%.
I also still own a few of these in another broker account from last year, so im not looking at all of them from a completely clean slate.