USTUSD
TerraUSD / United States dollar
crypto

I've traded bonds professionally for decades. When I started in the 90s, the 30 year was well north of 7%. 10 year was north of 6%. The current rise in rates isn't too concerning (yet) - many would look at it as an opportunity. Participation in short term auctions continue to be strong.
The deficit is concerning compared to where we used to be as a % of GDP - the fact that its 40 trillion is just a number. People are losing confidence that we can outgrow this percentage as things stand economically, given this government's disregard of fiscal restraint (something we haven't seen from ANY administration since Clinton). Moreso, UST is seeing serious investment competition from large corporate bond issuance for AI investment.
Yes, Japan would dump bonds in order to help stabilize the Yen absent our intervention, and that would exacerbate upward yield pressure. But it would not "destabilize" the market significantly. It's not like they would dump $1T all at once.
As an aside, I think the intervention was more about helping our balance of trade than protecting rates, but I can see both sides of the argument, especially with the Treasury increasing it's buyback.
I think that absent fiscal corrections, we are going to be higher for longer in rates, reflecting our lack of financial discipline. But I don't agree that this would cause a crypto boom. Crypto from what I have seen is a risk-off asset class, and responds to low rates. I think in a true risk-on scenario that a true dysfunction of UST would provoke, the winners would be other gold, other hard assets and other sovereign debt, not crypto. But hey, as we say, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, and that's what makes markets. If you think Shib (or crypto in general) will boom from this, I wish you luck.

I've traded bonds professionally for decades. When I started in the 90s, the 30 year was well north of 7%. 10 year was north of 6%. The current rise in rates isn't too concerning (yet) - many would look at it as an opportunity. Participation in short term auctions continue to be strong.
The deficit is concerning compared to where we used to be as a % of GDP - the fact that its 40 trillion is just a number. People are losing confidence that we can outgrow this percentage as things stand economically, given this government's disregard of fiscal restraint (something we haven't seen from ANY administration since Clinton). Moreso, UST is seeing serious investment competition from large corporate bond issuance for AI investment.
Yes, Japan would dump bonds in order to help stabilize the Yen absent our intervention, and that would exacerbate upward yield pressure. But it would not "destabilize" the market significantly. It's not like they would dump $1T all at once.
As an aside, I think the intervention was more about helping our balance of trade than protecting rates, but I can see both sides of the argument, especially with the Treasury increasing it's buyback.
I think that absent fiscal corrections, we are going to be higher for longer in rates, reflecting our lack of financial discipline. But I don't agree that this would cause a crypto boom. Crypto from what I have seen is a risk-off asset class, and responds to low rates. I think in a true risk-on scenario that a true dysfunction of UST would provoke, the winners would be other gold, other hard assets and other sovereign debt, not crypto. But hey, as we say, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, and that's what makes markets. If you think Shib (or crypto in general) will boom from this, I wish you luck.