RD Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

You are right about Pharma. There is no easy recipe. They are risky. Pfizer for example imo, even as an established pharma is risky.
Moderna is an exception specifically because it’s changed pharma in a way many people don’t understand.
1. Platform. Moderna has a platform, a reusable, coded platform. This allows the company to simulate, control, and produce. This bring in freelancer researchers, such as university of Oxford researchers to use the platform. The competitive advantage is that Moderna doesn’t have to spend heavily on RD, instead they can leverage freelancers using their platform and gaining human capital without spending the money. This is key for scaling research without the costs.
2. FDA approvals. The platform allows strong solid simulations for development. This is key, as it reduces the overall failure rates of medicine development. Moderna has an extremely high rate of clinical trial positive outcome because they are able to simulate and create the proper medicine the first time around. For example, BioNTech and other mRNA or traditional manufacturers have constantly failed and no other has a COVID, flu, RSV vaccine, because they are all producing one offs. Moderna uses one platform and simulation to get the efficiency to market benefits. Moderna has had some notable failures, but those if someone understood properly were linked to testing methodologies and the unique variable of methodologies used that the fda just wouldn’t allow. They weren’t actual failures in a traditional sense, they were failures because the system of phase trials just doesn’t know or doesn’t have a consensus of proper testing.
3. Individualized medicine. The platform is unique in a way that it can be individualized and run for a specific case. Hence the success in cancer meds coming into phase 3. This individual approach is something very new to the fda, and Moderna has shown great success, and if anything, the code base behind it is getting better daily with the emergence of LLM based machine language, the same methods Moderna uses to produce their meds.
4. Cost. Moderna can make meds in the same factory, using the same machines, and same processes. This is unique to Moderna. Even if patent cliffs come, no other company I. The world can produce every medicine in the same factory with the same machines. That is unheard of. It’s the biggest bang for the buck a company can achieve, because pharmas biggest problem is creating meds and creating the supply chain behind it, something Moderna doesn’t suffer from. Moderna can produce medicine cheaper than others can, over and over again.
5. Patent cliff protection and patents. Moderna’s medicine can go off a patent cliff, but to produce the unique individualized medicine you need the Moderna patented machines and code base. Those patents won’t expire like patent cliffs do. So even when Moderna’s meds go off a patent cliff, Moderna is 100% safe unlike normal pharmas. Moderna stock fell a lot because people thought they waisted their money going vertical, from machine patents to code patents. BioNTech went into other spheres and didn’t buy out mRNA based tech. Moderna ran low on cash because of the amount of patents they bought out. It seemed like wasted money, but they quietly with investor anger solidified their stronghold on mRNA development and production.
So Moderna is a unique once in a lifetime in my opinion. That’s why I went so deep into it. I’m not a wealthy man, but I wasn’t going to get a second chance at seeing what I saw a putting my money into it.
I hope that helps to why I agree with you on the pharma issue. There are some pharmas like NVO that aren’t once in a lifetime, but have great opportunities IMO. All these require patience on a down cycle, the reward for many is the up cycle. Some will continue the up cycle, and in my opinion, Moderna once established will not have as many down cycles other pharmas suffer from due to their patents and technology. Even NVO which I feel is a great buy might eventually suffer a patent cliff or competition, so is much more prone to the cyclical issue you speak of. Then there are the Pfizer’s, that can in my opinion only seem to grow through acquisitions, they just don’t have the cutting edge in house science behind them.

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