ORBUSDT
Orbitcoin / Tether USD
crypto

I trade ORB manually, although I'm struggling to find a mechanical way to trade and backtest it. I'm (was) a programmer so I do write some strategies. Im actually currently working on some. If you want I can work with you on that depending on which market you are trading on.

if you’re still eyeing a 16% win rate with ORB on NQ1, first strip away the top 5‑10 trades—lots of the expectancy probably lives in those outliers. if the curve drops below zero then the strategy is fragile and a live demo will grind you down before the big hit comes. either add a filter or aim for a higher win rate, test on real MNQ/QQQ contracts to guard against roll‑over quirks, and run a Monte‑Carlo to gauge the expected drawdowns before risking any capital.

Mine isn't really "the ORB" as one generic setup — it's a handful of fixed time-of-day slots per instrument (so time itself is part of the edge hypothesis, not just the breakout mechanic), each with its own SL multiplier and RR tuned separately, and I force an out-of-sample split so the numbers I trust are the ones the parameter search never saw. Still mostly backtest-confirmed at this point — only one slot actually has a live-tracked record going back further, the rest are fresh enough that I'm treating them as "survived the first check," not proven. That's the honest state of it right now, not a victory lap.

at 16% wins, 20 losers in a row is roughly a 3% shot from any given trade, and over 5 years of ORB you'll probably see a streak near 25-30. demo it and decide now if you'd still take trade #27.

Thanks for the reply
\- even though I understand markets I do take trades which are not coming from trading strategy
Which backtest very bad
Today I did scalp 0DTE spy puts shorts so it worked
But I can’t plan these moves before market hence not able to find the edge in those plays
My futures still even when I’m right about the direction markers spikes my SL and prop firms have strict rule
Sometimes I feel I should just follow some kinda ORB stage y as it is the easiest to follow
I took shorts cuz before market open market rejected 7700 SPX KEY level I wait it it broke up I would have chased long but it did retest short so I shorted
Cleaned but this doesn’t happen daily

15 min ORB on ES lost $99k from 2008 to 2022. same rule made $56k since

Try extension levels. Define a range: ORB, Value Area etc. Back test how far price usually expands, use those levels and ranges to form a picture about price action. Then add order flow on those levels to spot absorptions etc.

Bro, i just finished a research on 12 ORB variations (exclusively entering the break), i backtested about 48million versions of them and i didnt find an edge distinguishable from a coinflip, tho i only tested it on indices (s&p, DOW, NAS100) and some commodities + foreign currency... ill update when i finish testing other entries though to be conclusive. How long have you been trading the ORB and how are your results?

what moved on the 16th that shifted the ORB start? worth pinning in the rule, not the clock.
Quantradin is a thing I built for this, quantradin.com. paste the ORB rule in plain English or Pine and it runs as a paper bot on live US data, free and paper only, so a change gets weeks of fills first.

The setup itself is already running since february the only change I had to make is the start time of the ORB since 16 september changed a lot. Happy to continue the talk.

Man i respect the discipline in this post. Most people jump in wanting signals and get frustrated when they lose 3 trades. You got whole spreadsheet system and you log your mistakes too, that's rare.

I been backtesting ORB variations for past 8 months myself, mainly on NQ and ES. The fixed time slot thing is tricky, some days the breakout happens 3 minutes late and whole setup looks different. You use 5 min or 15 min ORB?

Not looking for partner though, my schedule is too inconsistent. But just wanted to say your approach is the right one. Most traders quit before they ever build real system, they just chase setups from youtube.

Not here to sell anything. No course, no Discord server, no "VIP group."
Just one person, maybe like-minded, who's also deep in the ORB/backtesting rabbit hole and wants an actual 1-on-1 accountability partner instead of another chat full of screenshots nobody reads.
What I'm working on: a multi-slot Opening Range Breakout system — fixed time slots per instrument, backtested, out-of-sample checked, now moving toward automation (webhook → broker bridge). Slow, methodical, more spreadsheet than dopamine. I log everything, including when I'm wrong.
What I'm looking for isn't a trading buddy to hype trades with. It's someone who treats this as a long project, not a shortcut — someone who reads, actually sits with a book instead of skimming a summary, and isn't afraid to look in the mirror when a losing streak isn't bad luck but a bad assumption. Someone who follows fundamentals and macro news and wants to actually argue about it, not just nod along.
I'm around pretty much all the time — not because I have nothing else going on, but because this is genuinely what I want to spend my time on. If that sounds like you, drop a comment or DM.
ORB trader

Terrible book, just jumbled thoughts. He renamed ORB the school bus trade.

I trade ORB manually, although I'm struggling to find a mechanical way to trade and backtest it. I'm (was) a programmer so I do write some strategies. Im actually currently working on some. If you want I can work with you on that depending on which market you are trading on.

if you’re still eyeing a 16% win rate with ORB on NQ1, first strip away the top 5‑10 trades—lots of the expectancy probably lives in those outliers. if the curve drops below zero then the strategy is fragile and a live demo will grind you down before the big hit comes. either add a filter or aim for a higher win rate, test on real MNQ/QQQ contracts to guard against roll‑over quirks, and run a Monte‑Carlo to gauge the expected drawdowns before risking any capital.

Mine isn't really "the ORB" as one generic setup — it's a handful of fixed time-of-day slots per instrument (so time itself is part of the edge hypothesis, not just the breakout mechanic), each with its own SL multiplier and RR tuned separately, and I force an out-of-sample split so the numbers I trust are the ones the parameter search never saw. Still mostly backtest-confirmed at this point — only one slot actually has a live-tracked record going back further, the rest are fresh enough that I'm treating them as "survived the first check," not proven. That's the honest state of it right now, not a victory lap.

at 16% wins, 20 losers in a row is roughly a 3% shot from any given trade, and over 5 years of ORB you'll probably see a streak near 25-30. demo it and decide now if you'd still take trade #27.

Thanks for the reply
\- even though I understand markets I do take trades which are not coming from trading strategy
Which backtest very bad
Today I did scalp 0DTE spy puts shorts so it worked
But I can’t plan these moves before market hence not able to find the edge in those plays
My futures still even when I’m right about the direction markers spikes my SL and prop firms have strict rule
Sometimes I feel I should just follow some kinda ORB stage y as it is the easiest to follow
I took shorts cuz before market open market rejected 7700 SPX KEY level I wait it it broke up I would have chased long but it did retest short so I shorted
Cleaned but this doesn’t happen daily

15 min ORB on ES lost $99k from 2008 to 2022. same rule made $56k since

Try extension levels. Define a range: ORB, Value Area etc. Back test how far price usually expands, use those levels and ranges to form a picture about price action. Then add order flow on those levels to spot absorptions etc.