HOTUSDT
Holo / Tether USD
crypto

The AI scours my database (start in 2021), looks at IV, expected move $, price close before earnings, price close after earnings and assigns a ticker:
* HOT (usually hits or breaches EM)
* Warm (sometimes hits EM but usually doesn't breach)
* Cold (almost never breaches)

I then track the performance infographic style. Q3 earnings were horrible. Across all tickers tracked, 36% hit the expected move (lower than a coin flip!). Hot tickers underperformed by 9% of this baseline. Warm tickers were WILD, over performing by 14%. Cold tickers came in-line.
Things I have noticed across all 3 earnings quarters:
* **EXPENSIVE IVs** mute absolute movement. This is what killed HOT tickers. Their IVs hovered around expensive to VERY expensive and thus there was a lot of theta gang possibilities because of IV crush and failed delta movement. HOWEVER, who the hell is brave enough to sell premium on tickers that usually do 2-3x expected move? Not me !
* **Cheap IVs** were the catalyst for greater than expected performance. This was across the board and usually when MMs were under pricing earnings. WARM tickers fell in this pot.
* COLD movers + Expensive IVs were easy picking to sell IC at the expected move wings. I kept mine small, $2-$5 wide ICs at the wings and cleaned up. Only got hit once and it was defined and small so who cares.

Best performing ticker for the quarter? ABNB at 267% of EM!!

I think Q4 is going to be a banger .. I am sure everyone read the 60% of the SP500 is in bear market stuff ... I think warm tickers will continue to outperform as the hot tickers will again have HUGE IVs and thus muted movement. They REALLY need to surprise, like Dell last Q with the +$150 move or whatever it was.

Well HOT DOG. 🔥

HOT TAKE but the vast vast majority of people in the us are POOR (by income probably close to 99.9%, by net worth surprisingly only maybe about 95-99%, would say you need multiple millions per year OR mid to high single digit millions in net worth not to be poor). WHY? Because they’re dependent on the system and can’t simply say FU to anyone and don’t have freedom to have whatever they want and complain about tiny things.
I say this as someone whose family came from TRUE third world poverty (and poor and poverty mean VERY different things, poor means you’re not rich, poverty means like a true deprivation of basic human needs), not the American definition of poverty and complaining about lacking a Tesla but think of a lack of indoor plumbing and had to ration food and an active war zone. They immigrated to the us with absolutely nothing, probably less than nothing tbh, but they became rich through sheer hard work and determination.
We’re all on this sub to get rich anyways, but every 5 minutes I see a new Reddit post fighting over the semantics of what counts as “rich”.