BTCUSDT20240329C80000
Bitcoin / Tether USD Mar 29 2024 80000.00 Call
crypto

Bitcoin has become a vehicle of the right - so many BTC bros voted for Trump, it's completely disillusioned me from the community. Thoreau would not have been into the vibes today - a bunch of bootlickers.

Bruh, those are completely legitimate concerns.
Self custody is the scariest part of owning real BTC, but it’s a pristine asset! Think of it this way: I don’t leave my car unlocked, or my wallet on a park bench, or my bank account password on a post-it note next to my computer. There are rules, just practice them every. single. time.
A combination of hot and cold wallets are completely manageable by someone who has managed to survive 40-some trips around the sun.
Have you read the White Paper? The Bitcoin Standard? Broken Money? or Softwar? This is what I meant with my glib redditor ‘by knowing what I have…’ I learned deeply about it. That knowledge helps with the normal anxiety of investing and risk. It’s not a lock that it will succeed (a whole other conversation) but my intuition, my research, my tally of investing wins-and-losses has me convinced.
At the end of the week in the fiat mines, I pay my bills and then exchange as much of that fiat trash as I can for a pristine asset I can believe in. And when it dips, I buy more… a weighted DCA.
I won’t pretend to know what else you’re going through, but good luck OP.

Yeah but a ton of events happened since then. And so no, BTC is not a solid investment nymore. the HYPE IS OVER GUYS!

Say I sell you a pizza. You pay me with BTC. I see your address and that you sent me $10. I can go back to this address and check all the transactions you've ever done or will ever do in the future.
Of course you can have multiple wallets etc, but there are Blockchain analytics tools to easily clean this info up. It's stalkers paradise. I can find where you work (what address sends you large sums of money every month) and also 10 years from now if an address of a criminal is discovered I can go back and see if you ever transacted with him.
Of course there are ways to bypass this but this is on top of the "basic" BTC layer

It's an interesting trade-off: miners may have swapped BTC price risk for AI spending risk.
The next cycle might be decided as much by Big Tech earnings calls as by Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin miners sold 15,000+ BTC from treasuries to fund AI data center buildouts. Mining stocks are up 56% while BTC is down 17%. Bitcoin's hashrate is now underwritten by hyperscaler AI capex, and the AI trade just had its worst day since 2025.

Take a look at the 🤴 king! BTC bitcoin!!

No value to *you,* clearly. To the average person holding USD and desiring BTC, it’s currently worth $63389.29. That’s value. I’ll gladly accept any BTC you want to get rid of for the $0 you think they’re worth, though!

Regarding yesterday's discussion on John Oliver:
He's previously done two long form videos discussing crypto.
I compared the BTC/USD closing price on the official US release date of each John Oliver cryptocurrency segment with the closing price exactly seven calendar days later.
John Oliver segment| Release date| BTC at release| BTC 7 days later| 7-day return
Cryptocurrencies| 11 Mar 2018| $9,578.63| $8,223.68| -14.15%
Cryptocurrencies II| 23 Apr 2023| $27,591.38| $29,268.81| +6.08%
Trump & Crypto| 26 Jul 2026| $65,389.20| Pending| Pending
Obviously, two completed observations are nowhere near enough to demonstrate a meaningful “John Oliver effect”, particularly because the episodes were released during very different market conditions.

> there are over 10,000 nodes
Around 85k full nodes globally. You need to count listening and non listening nodes and TOR nodes.
With regards to fees no one knows the future, but here are some important points to consider :
1) Difficulty dynamically adjusts dynamically up and down to insure efficient miners always remain profitable longterm
2) "Moores Cliff" , means that miners are becoming more decentralized as the hardware is no longer becoming obsolete as quickly and much more Used and new ASICs are fighting for amateur miners
3) Total hashrate is just one of many security mechanisms in Bitcoin and not the most important one either. You can have a more secure Bitcoin if their are more node runners or decentralized hashrate than simply larger hashrate overall.
4) We can't assume if Block reward falls that mining will become more centralized. The opposite could occur because Amateur mining does not have the overhead of employees , security, regulatory compliance, building costs, tax liabilities ...
5) Historically we have already seen examples where transaction fees collected per block exceeded inflation and even with far fewer users so I would not worry.
6) The Security budget dynamically changes to fit the value being secured. If Bitcoin is less popular and thus less valuable it needs a smaller security budget. It all self balances.
7) Also keep in mind that if hashrate drops too low we can simply wait for more confirmations onchain to increase the level of security and this doesn't effect the end user much because if they use a lightning wallet once its setup they still get instant confirmations.
8) When you do the math its not so dire either
Current average block with fees is 3.154 BTC or 199,395 USD of security. Lets be very conservative and assume we will no longer see 10-20x bull markets anymore and Bitcoin on average is growing at only ~30% a year(when you average everything out) for the next 14 years and lets be pessimistic and assume fees stay low (unlikely with more adoption) and are only 2% per block and discuss the next 4 halvings :
1.59375 BTC per block including fees x $106,470.00 = 169,686 usd in security per block.
0.796875 BTC per block including fees x $304,088 = 242,320 usd in security per block
0.3984375 BTC per block including fees x $868,508 = 346,046 usd in security per block
0.19921875 BTC per block including fees x $2,480,547 = 494,171 usd in security per block
You can see a very small dip 2 years from now but after that the security per block keeps improving.
This is being conservative IMHO because Bitcoin is in the early stages of adoption with only ~5% people globally so could easily grow this quickly and I am assuming fees remain very low which is also unlikely.

> there are over 10,000 nodes
Around 85k full nodes globally. You need to count listening and non listening nodes and TOR nodes.
With regards to fees no one knows the future, but here are some important points to consider :
1) Difficulkty dynamically adjusts dynamically up and down to unisure efficient miners always remain profitable longterm
2) "Moores Cliff" , means that miners are becoming more decentralized as the hardware is no longer becoming obsolete as quickly and much more Used and new ASICs are fighting for amateur miners
3) Total hashrate is just one of many security mechanisms in Bitcoin and not the most important one either. You can have a more secure Bitcoin if their are more node runners or decentralized hashrate than simply larger hashrate overall.
4) We can't assume if Block reward falls that mining will become more centralized. The opposite could occur because Amateur mining does not have the overhead of employees , security, regulatory compliance, building costs, tax liabilities ...
5) Historically we have already seen examples where transaction fees collected per block exceeded inflation and even with far fewer users so I would not worry.
6) The Security budget dynamically changes to fit the value being secured. If Bitcoin is less popular and thus less valuable it needs a smaller security budget. It all self balances.
7) Also keep in mind that if hashrate drops too low we can simply wait for more confirmations onchain to increase the level of security and this doesn't effect the end user much because if they use a lightning wallet once its setup they still get instant confirmations.
8) When you do the math its not so dire either
Current average block with fees is 3.154 BTC or 199,395 USD of security. Lets be very conservative and assume we will no longer see 10-20x bull markets anymore and Bitcoin on average is growing at only ~30% a year(when you average everything out) for the next 14 years and lets be pessimistic and assume fees stay low (unlikely with more adoption) and are only 2% per block and discuss the next 4 halvings :
1.59375 BTC per block including fees x $106,470.00 = 169,686 usd in security per block.
0.796875 BTC per block including fees x $304,088 = 242,320 usd in security per block
0.3984375 BTC per block including fees x $868,508 = 346,046 usd in security per block
0.19921875 BTC per block including fees x $2,480,547 = 494,171 usd in security per block
You can see a very small dip 2 years from now but after that the security per block keeps improving.
This is being conservative IMHO because Bitcoin is in the early stages of adoption with only ~5% people globally so could easily grow this quickly and I am assuming fees remain very low which is also unlikely.

BTC is around $63.3K at the time of writing, with ETH near $1,625 and SOL around $78. Prices are falling, but I do not think this is only about people suddenly leaving crypto.
US Bitcoin ETFs received about $499M from July 20–22, then lost around $477M over the next three reported trading days. That basically cancelled most of the earlier inflows. Stablecoin supply is also still near $308B, but it barely grew over the past week.
So the money has not completely disappeared. It looks more like capital is sitting on the side and waiting.
The Fed meeting may be part of the reason. Markets still see a real chance of a rate increase, while the dollar is near a one-month high. Both can make people less willing to hold risky assets.
Personally, I would watch ETF flows after the Fed meeting. If inflows return but BTC remains weak, that would be more worrying than today’s price drop.
What are you watching this week?

"Miners pay for power in fiat, not BTC. So if fees stay at 1%, the price has to roughly double every four years just to keep miner revenue flat in dollar terms. Bitcoin has historically done that. The honest position is that a maturing asset shouldn't be expected to keep doing it forever."  
Is it really still true? Will that happen indefinitely?

“Won’t matter in 5 yrs” is easy to say about a fund that’s literally never existed for 5 yrs lol. Realistically this is how it plays out: BTC eventually has a real run, XBCI caps you out of most of it cause that’s the whole mechanism, and you’re still chasing breakeven while spot holders are sitting on multiples. These things don’t usually blow up loud, they just slowly become irrelevant, AUM dries up, fund gets restructured or closed, and you’re left holding something that doesn’t even look like what you bought anymore.
The IBIT comparison only works if BTC just sits there and does nothing. That’s like the one scenario where this actually wins. Any real move up or a crash-then-rip and you’re worse off than just holding spot.

Welcome to the BTC ride. Just zoom out.

I got the standard answers when I started, and none of them held up when I pushed on them. Putting the working here in case someone else is stuck at the same place.
First, the Ponzi thing, because it comes up in every one of these threads. A Ponzi has four features: promised high returns with little risk, a central operator, old investors paid out of new investor money, and concealed flows. Bitcoin has none of them. It's volatile with nobody promising anything, there are over 10,000 nodes and no operator, nobody is paid a return, and the entire transaction history since 2009 is public. That question is settled and I don't think it's interesting anymore.
The one I couldn't get a straight answer on is the security budget.
Miners are paid two ways: the block reward and transaction fees. The reward is 3.125 BTC and halves every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. Next halving is around April 2028, taking it to 1.5625. Fees are currently around 1% of what miners earn.
Miners pay for power in fiat, not BTC. So if fees stay at 1%, the price has to roughly double every four years just to keep miner revenue flat in dollar terms. Bitcoin has historically done that. The honest position is that a maturing asset shouldn't be expected to keep doing it forever.
The usual response is "that's a 2140 problem". I don't think it is. It's a next-decade problem, and it resolves one of three ways: fee share climbs off 1%, price keeps doubling, or miners start leaving.
The part that made me more comfortable, not less, is what happens in that third case. Nothing breaks. Difficulty adjusts every two weeks based on the hash power actually on the network. Miners leave, difficulty falls, and the ones who stayed earn more. Hash rate has climbed through every dip so far, which is decent evidence the economics still work.
But I'd rather have a test than a vibe, so here's mine. Watch two things over the next few years. Hash rate rising and fee share climbing meaningfully off 1% means the security model is fine. Both falling together means the bear case is real.
Related: bitcoin has to be used, not only held, for fees to develop. Satoshi made this point back in 2010. As it stands there's no shortage of use — roughly $25 trillion in bitcoin moved on chain in 2025 per Glassnode, more than Visa and Mastercard volume. What matters going forward is whether that activity keeps settling on chain rather than migrating entirely to custodians and ETFs, because that's where the fee market comes from.
If someone has a solid counter to the fee-market case I'd genuinely like to read it. The permabull version of this answer is "fees will rise", which isn't an argument.

Oh I dont doubt the price will drop but I dont know about any ATHs or what "Total $LTC Victory" means. Also what chart should I be looking at because this is a ai generated picture of a countdown to the halving not a chart. If you meant the LTC/BTC chart well that doesnt look like accumulation to me. I would say it looks more like almost 15 years of continuously trending towards zero but I'm not sure if we are looking at the same charts.

Technically, there’s no such thing as intrinsic value. All value, in the economic sense, is subjective. BTC has a lot of that subjective value as the first mover and proof of concept for crypto. It could be surpassed by another coin, but so far that hasn’t happened. I don’t think BTC is the only currency or store of value worth owning. I have fiat, precious metals, stocks, real estate, numismatics, all of them a valid part of my net assets and good for different uses.

Why is BTC special? Why not Doge Coin? Or sea shells? There is no intrinsic value to bitcoin. There is no use for it that is more convenient than accepted fiat, unless you want to buy drugs. If the government wants your bitcoin, they 100% can steal it, just ask Iran. Your bitcoin can be knocked off any day by a new and improved imaginary coin that doesn't take an absurd amount of computing power to maintain.

watch BTC be back to $65k when i wake up. this thing more volatile than mf