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The biggest challenge is that the filtering conditions might change your OS curve significantly. CR2 might be a different beast with a different health profile, ELN classification distribution, comorbidities.
But we agree that REGAL shows extremely strong indication that their clinical population has a much higher OS than historical standards. In the area of 2x or 3x, and every month passing is an additional nail in the coffin for BAT treatment.

So I went searching if anyone had posted anything about this and I couldn’t find it. Seems like people wait for PR’s but no ones following current medical journals? This is HUGE. So please correct me if I’m wrong. I’m also not gonna write this so it makes no sense to people that way simple ppl like me understand what it’s saying.
Isn’t the Azacitidine–Venetoclax combo the most effective “bat” treatment available? If the best modern frontline regimen is around 21.5 months (which this study just confirmed), why are people assuming REGAL’s BAT arm is 15-20+ months in a post-relapse CR2 population? The above study was a CR1 group. This significantly drops the cr2 group of the bath arm.
Here’s me breaking it down in the simplest way possible:
Venetoclax and Azacitidine - Apparently best bat therapy available. This was a Cr1 group, 21.5 mos. In 2020, the same group was 14.7mos. That’s a 1.5 percent increase.
There was a previous 2024 study before entering cr2 at mos of 12/another one 12.8. Cr2 patients are much weaker so what are the chances they’re surviving the same 12-12.8 months. Low af.
So even if cr2 bat arm has mos of 12 months, regal would need mos of 18.9 months, which is 2 months less than their phase 2 trial. But if mos is 10, regal would only need 15.7 mos. Keep in mind the phase 2 trial only had 6 doses and got to 21.5. For phase 3, they’re also using boosters.
This study just increased the odds drastically. Bear case would still be that bat arm is outperforming, but mathematically it was moved from 5.4 months (which is from 2020 survival) mos to 8 months mos as multiplied by 1.5 to current. That means that their previous study which had 14 months realistically would make sense to multiple also by 1.5 to reach the 21 months it has today which has been confirmed. Meaning the same 1.5 can be applied to the previous 5.4 which is what gets us to their estimated bat arm of 8 months. This is HUGE. Like huuuge. Doesn’t seem like anyone has seen this artical yet. Yes, obviously everything doesn’t work in a perfect linear way or mathematically on point, but this still gives a huge boost to regal. The other bear case is that the study for phase 2 was so small that it can’t really be used. But thats it at this point. Does this mean Regal
Is 100 percent, no, nothing is ever 100 percent. But it’s definitely not 50/50 or even 60/50. This is the best opportunity we’re going to get for a long time. Just be smart and invest what you can afford to lose.
Anything like this is obviously still a gamble, you can never really know, but the odds have never been more in favor of regal due to this published study.
I only have 1400 shares but I love my research and this just upped the game for sure. Im a math girlie and this new study just confirmed what everyone feels they know. Feeling dumb luck would be the only thing to take us out now. But that shit happens too.
Obviously there’s always a bear case. Yes the bat arm could out perform but with this study, what are the chances now. But the math shows that the 8 months that’s adjusted follows the same multiplication of the 21.5 months that was just confirmed. If we have regal at 21 months for a CR2 group and they have that for a CR1 that’s a massive difference.
This is the link from Sept 2nd complete study:
\[\*\*https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2602804?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F\*\*\](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2602804?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F)
This is the article from ASCO on this past Friday, Sept 18th:
\[\*\*https://ascopost.com/news/september-2026/azacitidinevenetoclax-improves-event-free-survival-in-fit-patients-with-aml/\*\*\](https://ascopost.com/news/september-2026/azacitidinevenetoclax-improves-event-free-survival-in-fit-patients-with-aml/)
Good luck to all. There’s obviously so many moving factors but I’m touching on what this new study does for increased chances.