ADAETH
Cardano / Ethereum
crypto Composite

Hello Op, started paying 2022 as i was sales talk to get LRP I thought it was a saving pero in reality its an insurance.
Asking nung nag stop ka ng payment is it ADA din? Im currently requesting via email to cancel payment para yung premium holiday na lang gamitin nila to stay active yung policy planning to cancel after 11th year para 0% surrender charge.

haha i don’t know 😆 i trust the fundamentals and reliability. i could be wrong!! but i feel comfortable for the long term with cardano, for me its ADA or BTC. BTC for gold and ADA as spending power. i’ve got a vision for the future that i won’t bother explaining, i could be insane truthfully lmao

The days of putting $100 into random coins and getting 50x–100x are mostly over. Crypto’s way more mature now and big money controls a lot of the market.Back in 2017–2021 almost anything with a decent narrative pumped hard. Now most projects launch, dump, and slowly fade away eg. ADA, Polygon etc.
A lot of projects also failed to solve the problems they promised to fix.We were told it would replace banking, revolutionize payments, fix inflation, etc. In reality. BTC became a store of value, ETH became infrastructure/speculation, and stablecoins are pretty much the only crypto product people actually use daily in real life.
Most altcoins just feel like hype cycles now. Meme coins kinda proved the market runs more on attention and liquidity than actual utility.
And honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if this crypto winter drags on for years. People got burned badly the last few cycles and retail interest just isn’t the same anymore.

Proof of concept / experiment: A GEM regression model but shorting biggest loosers instead of going long on winners. Tuned for bear markets.
**Experimental setup as below:**
* May 1 – Dec 31, 2022 data (BTC already down \~50% from ATH, Luna gone, 3AC gone, FTX about to be gone)
* 11 Binance USD-M perpetuals -- 4 extreme fallers (SOL, AVAX, ADA, DOT), 4 moderate (BTC, ETH, LINK, MATIC), 3 outperformers (BNB, TRX, XMR)
* $10k starting capital, flat 0.3% round-trip fees, real Binance funding rates applied at 8h cadence.
**The models**
GEM, sign-flipped for shorts:
* Fit either an exponential or linear regression to each token's recent closes
* Ranks them by the negative momentum, filters by R\*\*2 and a momentum floor
* Goes short on the top N most-negative tokens, weighted by their negative momentum magnitude (tokens ATR over total ATR sum)
* 10-day rebalance cooldown

**Results**
Best config: *lin-n1-w15* (linear, single token, 15-day window), +87.2% total return, -27.4% max drawdown, Calmar 5.64.
Long-only bear specialist from a [previous post](https://blog.nodrama.io/gem-bear-market-models/): Calmar 4.60.
But: baseline naive equal-weight short, never rebalanced: +57.7% return, -16.4% DD, Calmar 5.92
The -27% DD was one event: an ADA short squeeze, Oct 18 - 28 2022. The model entered at 100% weight on a clean 15-day downtrend, ADA bounced
**Findings**
The risk signals that would have flagged the squeeze, starting with funding-rate inversion, is obviously not in the OHLCV data, so the model cannot anticipate short squeezes.
Full write-up, charts, notebooks for repro:
[https://blog.nodrama.io/aggressive-bear-short-gem/](https://blog.nodrama.io/aggressive-bear-short-gem/)

The CS which handles all their properties, I think Amicassa yun, has been terrible. They don’t fight you regarding the refund amount unlike other developers (my sister had a bad experience with Deca) so that’s a good thing kasi you’ll surely get 50%. However, we cancelled 2 properties with them in the last 2-3 years and both times we had to follow up a lot because the customer service was terrible. I had to call them weekly and all they would say is magfofollow up sila dun sa naka assign because laging past the amount of time na sinabi nila for update but it took 4 months and 6 months sa properties namin to get our money. Longer if enrolled ka sa ADA. Yung property na enrolled with auto debit mas super daming requirements.