IG Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

**🔴**
**HIGH RISK remains — materially worse in credit + equity internals**
This **does meet the alert threshold**. The classification stays **HIGH RISK**, but deterioration is becoming broader rather than remaining a sovereign-bond story.
The clearest change since the prior check is the combination of **another credit-spread widening + a sharp worsening in U.S. market breadth**, while long Treasuries again touched new multi-decade yield highs.
**Cluster**
**Latest read**
**Change**
**U.S. sovereign / term premium**
10Y touched **5.342%**, 30Y **5.683%**, before easing to \~5.28% / 5.63%. The 2Y is nearer **4.87%**, so the long end is steepening away from policy rates.
🔴 Still extreme
**Treasury auctions / issuance**
No new coupon auction today. Recent weak 5Y/7Y sequence remains unresolved. Treasury has a **$6B 10–20Y liquidity buyback later today**.
🔴 Active, no new failure yet
**Japan**
20Y \~**3.95–3.97%**, 30Y \~**4.19–4.20%**, 40Y \~**4.21–4.22%**; USD/JPY \~**158.1**.
🔴 Rates worse, but no carry unwind
**Funding plumbing**
Sep. 30 SOFR printed **3.90%**, essentially equal to IORB. I find no fresh verified repo/basis/cross-currency dislocation in this run.
🟢 Firebreak holding
**Credit**
HY OAS **308 → 312 bp**; CCC **1,157 → 1,179 bp**; IG remains **84 bp**.
🔴 **Worse again**
**Vol / equity internals**
NYSE: roughly **325 new lows vs 9 highs**; Nasdaq: **443 lows vs 54 highs**. VIX \~**16.3** and futures remain in contango.
🔴 **Materially worse breadth**
**Oil / macro**
Brent around **$98–99** after the prior >$100 spike.
🟢 Still below danger zone
**Monetary confidence**
Gold roughly **$4,150–4,200** while the dollar is firm/stronger.
🟢 Gold↑ + real yields↑ + USD↓ trigger absent
**Fiscal / liquidity**
Large issuance/TGA and weak long-duration appetite remain structural pressure; no fresh refunding change today.
🟠 Background
**What changed**
Credit has continued to transmit the rates shock. ICE/BofA’s latest September 30 readings show **HY OAS at 312 bp**, up from **308**, and **CCC at 1,179 bp**, up **22 bp in one session** and from **1,112 bp on September 24**. IG is unchanged at 84 bp.
More importantly, equity internals deteriorated significantly intraday. Roughly **325 NYSE stocks are making 52-week lows versus only nine highs**, while Nasdaq is around **443 lows versus 54 highs**. New lows have now exceeded highs for more than three weeks on both exchanges. This is meaningfully worse than the previous check and shows the rate/credit pressure spreading beneath the headline indexes.
Treasuries again tested fresh extremes: the 10Y reached **5.342%** and the 30Y **5.683%**, before buyers appeared and yields retreated somewhat. The important structural point remains that the long end is staying exceptionally high even after softer inflation data reduced near-term Fed-hike odds—consistent with fiscal/term-premium and duration-supply pressure rather than simply the expected Fed path.
Japan is also back near its super-long extremes: current indications put the 20Y near **3.97%**, 30Y around **4.20%**, and 40Y around **4.21%**. But USD/JPY near **158** means the yen is weakening, not surging; therefore Japanese repatriation/carry liquidation is **still not occurring**.
Two major systemic firebreaks still hold. First, the September 30 SOFR fixing was **3.90%**, versus approximately **3.90% IORB**, so quarter-end repo pricing did not show a broad scarcity event. Second, VIX is only around **16**, with October and November futures roughly **17.7 and 18.4**, leaving the curve in contango rather than backwardation.
Oil has also backed away: Brent is near **$98–99**, well below your **$115–120** macro-shock threshold. That prevents the energy/inflation channel from becoming the sixth active cluster for now.
**Current transmission path**
The chain is now:
**global term-premium / fiscal stress → long Treasury & JGB yields ↑ → financing costs ↑ → CCC/HY spreads widen → broad equity participation collapses**
The missing systemic step remains:
**repo/basis stress → volatility backwardation → forced deleveraging → yen carry unwind.**
So I still count **5 independent active clusters**:
**sovereign duration + Treasury absorption + Japan + credit + equity internals = HIGH RISK.**
A move to **CRITICAL** would now require a sixth channel—most credibly **HY accelerating through \~325–350 bp**, VIX **>25 with backwardation**, persistent SOFR > IORB / meaningful SRF usage, clear Treasury-market funding dysfunction, Brent surging back toward **$115+**, or USD/JPY collapsing toward **153–150**.
**Bottom line:** **HIGH RISK remains, but the setup has materially worsened because credit and breadth are now deteriorating together while long sovereign yields remain at extreme levels. Funding and volatility are still preventing this from becoming a full systemic-dislocation signal.**

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