CFF
CONIFEX TIMBER INC
stock TSE

I'm not from the finance world, so I'm not confident I can give you the thesis you're expecting. What I can give you is my view from the perspective of a SCIP.
Conifex is high-risk, high-reward spec on Canadian lumber industry recovery, that's for sure. They recently got an ops loan from the Business Development Bank of Canada, under terms of which Conifex will only need to pay interest until 2028. Supply squeeze combined with a US housing rebound indicates to me that tailwinds are aligning on the demand side, not to mention the steady march toward US Congress striking down the >45% tariffs on lumber to just a measly 15%. Then, there's Canada's improving trade relationships with China and India to consider, our #2 and #4 softwood importers, plus ever-increasing ties with Japan and South Korea (#3 and #5, respectively). Exports to Mexico are also worth watching.
Earnings call in a couple of days will help clarify things. If there are hints of a ramp-up a the end of Q3/throughout Q4, or if Congress pulls through at any point with that tariff strikedown, I'm dumping every free dollar I have into CFF.

I'm not from the finance world, so I'm not confident I can give you the thesis you're expecting. What I can give you is my view from the perspective of a SCIP.
Conifex is high-risk, high-reward spec on Canadian lumber industry recovery, that's for sure. They recently got an ops loan from the Business Development Bank of Canada, under terms of which Conifex will only need to pay interest until 2028. Supply squeeze combined with a US housing rebound indicates to me that tailwinds are aligning on the demand side, not to mention the steady march toward US Congress striking down the >45% tariffs on lumber to just a measly 15%. Then, there's Canada's improving trade relationships with China and India to consider, our #2 and #4 softwood importers, plus ever-increasing ties with Japan and South Korea (#3 and #5, respectively). Exports to Mexico are also worth watching.
Earnings call in a couple of days will help clarify things. If there are hints of a ramp-up a the end of Q3/throughout Q4, or if Congress pulls through at any point with that tariff strikedown, I'm dumping every free dollar I have into CFF.