FOMC
FOMO CORP
stock OTC

You’re not making the argument you think you’re making.
A basketball player intentionally missing a shot is point-shaving, which is literally a crime, not how the market is designed to function.
Good luck trying to "bribe" the entire US electorate or the FOMC board to cover your $50 Kalshi contract. The scale of the event matters here.

Today I full ported the nfp 7:30am candle as a last attempt to get my evaluation out of drawdown
My setup:

I measured price 75 ticks both ways then placed a buy lmt and sell stop using 5 contracts for them each 15 seconds before 7:30am which is very risky by the way I wouldn’t recommend it unless it’s like a very last resort and you need a super volatile candle
Now when I saw I was up 6k I thought I was balling then I was told that my best day could not be 50% of profit so then I had to purposely…
Im thinking of doing this very risky strategy again October 7th for the FOMC Meeting Minutes 1:00pm candle but looking at older charts I can see that the red folder event likes to do fake outs so with that being said does anyone have any advice or comments?

Now imagine FOMC everyday+23/5 market at the same time, hft algos are going to have an aneurysm

GUYS FOMC EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK GET READY FOR NO RATE HIKE

FOMC everyday at 2pm🔥🔥🔥

Job report today make another rate hike on next FOMC Meeting unlikely but about in 2 weeks we'll get CPI and if it's bad, then we'll dump again.
I don't think this pump will hold because of Friday and TACO already send about 2000 soldiers to the middle-east and been thinking to send more later.

You’re not making the argument you think you’re making.
A basketball player intentionally missing a shot is point-shaving, which is literally a crime, not how the market is designed to function.
Good luck trying to "bribe" the entire US electorate or the FOMC board to cover your $50 Kalshi contract. The scale of the event matters here.

Today I full ported the nfp 7:30am candle as a last attempt to get my evaluation out of drawdown
My setup:

I measured price 75 ticks both ways then placed a buy lmt and sell stop using 5 contracts for them each 15 seconds before 7:30am which is very risky by the way I wouldn’t recommend it unless it’s like a very last resort and you need a super volatile candle
Now when I saw I was up 6k I thought I was balling then I was told that my best day could not be 50% of profit so then I had to purposely…
Im thinking of doing this very risky strategy again October 7th for the FOMC Meeting Minutes 1:00pm candle but looking at older charts I can see that the red folder event likes to do fake outs so with that being said does anyone have any advice or comments?

Now imagine FOMC everyday+23/5 market at the same time, hft algos are going to have an aneurysm

GUYS FOMC EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK GET READY FOR NO RATE HIKE

FOMC everyday at 2pm🔥🔥🔥

Job report today make another rate hike on next FOMC Meeting unlikely but about in 2 weeks we'll get CPI and if it's bad, then we'll dump again.
I don't think this pump will hold because of Friday and TACO already send about 2000 soldiers to the middle-east and been thinking to send more later.

The main event tomorrow (Fri Oct 2) is the September jobs report at 8:30am ET, and Nike is the only name with an earnings reaction. I found no other noteworthy earnings for Friday \[3\]. Levels below are from closing prices (the data has no intraday highs and lows).
**Catalysts**
* **September payrolls:** consensus is +89K, prior +162K \[1\]. Trading Economics' model forecast is 120K \[2\]. August's +162K beat a 55K consensus and pushed up Fed-hike bets. The S&P 500 closed down 0.38% that day and consumer discretionary fell most \[1\]\[6\].
* **Rates backdrop:** the 10-year yield was 5.31% on Oct 1, up 0.53 points in a month \[10\]. The ^(TNX) quote shows 5.24% \[13\]; I couldn't reconcile the two. A Fed hike is the live risk, and yields hit their highest since 2007 in mid-September on Iran-driven oil \[11\].
* **Nike (NKE):** reported after the close. Revenue was $11.21B, down 4% and below the $11.32B estimate. Greater China fell 22%. Adjusted FY27 EPS guidance is $1.15–1.35, about 22% below the $1.61 consensus. The stock was down as much as 6.6% after hours \[9\]. It closed at $35.15, a six-month low \[12\]\[14\].
**Likely affected (my judgment):** NKE and consumer discretionary peers (XLY, LULU), SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, and rate-sensitive groups such as banks, homebuilders, REITs and utilities. I didn't test levels on the last group.
**Levels on the five most exposed**
|Last|Nearest support|Nearest resistance|Read|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|NKE|35.15|None, at 6M low|38.77 (20d high), 38.85 (50d SMA)|Gapping below its low|
|TLT|77.71|None, at 6M low|82.21 (20d high)|At the low|
|IWM|279.02|277.89 (20d and 60d low), 0.41% below|295.24 (20d high)|On support|
|SPY|763.99|761.56 (50d SMA), 752.18 (20d low)|773.5 (20d high), 775.95 (6M high)|Mid-range, 1.54% below the high|
|QQQ|742.03|715.06 (50d SMA)|747.46 (6M high), 0.73% above|Just under the high|
**Betting markets**
* **Payrolls:** Polymarket puts 100–150K at 36.5% and 50–100K at 33.0%. Kalshi has above 125K at 28% and above 0 at 88% \[8\]. Both imply a print near or above the 89K consensus.
* **Unemployment rate:** Polymarket has 4.1% at 38.5%, 4.2% at 30.0% and 4.0% at 23.0% \[4\].
* **Fed (Oct 28):** Polymarket has no change at 73.5% and a 25bp hike at 25.5% \[7\]. A strong print raises the hike odds, and the August precedent shows that is bad for equities and bonds.
* **Nike:** the only Nike markets are earnings-call word-mention contracts, so there is no price signal.
**Most likely to jump**
* **TLT:** the most asymmetric. It sits at its 6M low, and the nearest resistance is 5.5% above. A weak print (Polymarket gives below 50K about 24%) could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce. A hot print breaks the low and extends the 5.31% yield move.
* **IWM:** it is 0.41% above support at 277.89. A weak print and falling yields could spark a relief rally. A hot print breaks below it, with the next support at the 6M low of 250.04.
* **NKE:** a gap down from the 6M low into open air, with no support below $35.15. A bounce back toward 38.8 is possible but needs a reversal after the guidance cut, and short interest was already called crowded \[5\].
* **SPY and QQQ:** these have less room either way. QQQ needs only a 0.73% move to test its 747.46 high, and SPY has support at 761.56 just below.
Net view for the next few days: I give the upside scenario somewhat more weight. TLT and IWM have the best skew at their lows on a soft number. The strongest bear point is that August's beat of about 107K over consensus triggered a sell-off. A second beat with the 10-year above 5.3% would break TLT, IWM and NKE together.
**Sources**
* \[1\] United States Nonfarm Payrolls — Web Search
* \[2\] United States Non Farm Payrolls — Web Search
* \[3\] Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (Sept. 28-Oct. 2) | Kiplinger — Web Search
* \[4\] Prediction markets: jobs report unemployment rate September — Source
* \[5\] NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance — Web Search
* \[6\] Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets | Reuters — Web Search
* \[7\] Prediction markets: Fed rate October FOMC — Source
* \[8\] Prediction markets: nonfarm payrolls September jobs added — Source
* \[9\] Why Nike Stock Fell After Its October 2026 Earnings — Web Search
* \[10\] US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News — Web Search
* \[11\] 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 — Web Search
* \[12\] NKE Quote — Live Quote · NKE
* \[13\] ^(TNX) Quote — Live Quote · ^(TNX)
* \[14\] NKE Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · NKE

Probably pump after Samsung/SK Hynix/WDC/SNDK earnings end of month but I'd sell before FOMC personally.

The reason we pump is because one of the Fed says that rate hike is not 100% sure on this upcoming FOMC Meeting.
Job report tomorrow should tell us more about it.

Bought after FOMC perfect entry, plan was to sell before earnings but sold the next day instead because im a pussy. I did set another limit order but it didnt trigger. I cry every time i look as it gets higher day by day.

HAD PUTS SINCE FOMC IMA CUT AT OPEN I CANT HODL ANYMORE.. 30K LOSS

\# 📊 Market Brief — Wed September 30, 2026
\*Data pulled Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:35 AM ET\*
\*\*TL;DR:\*\* The 8:30 data hit a flat tape and yields moved lower. August PCE: headline \*\*+0.3% MoM / 3.4% YoY\*\*, core \*\*+0.2% / 3.0%\*\*. Q2 GDP was revised \*\*up to 2.2%\*\* (from 1.5%), and ADP showed \*\*+90k\*\* private jobs, a better-than-expected rebound. Hike odds for October had already dropped to roughly a coin flip after Williams said there was "no need for urgency." Micron reports tonight, the jobs report is Friday, and both SPY and QQQ sit just under their gamma flips.
\## 📰 Last 24h — what happened & why
\- \*\*PCE was hot enough to matter but not alarming.\*\* Core rose \*\*+0.2%\*\* on the month, and the annual rate is \*\*3.0%\*\* after BEA's annual revisions. Spending jumped \*\*+0.9%\*\* nominal (real \*\*+0.6%\*\*) against income of only +0.2%, so consumers are spending faster than they earn.
\- \*\*Growth is firmer than it looked:\*\* Q2 GDP went to \*\*2.2%\*\* from 1.5%, lifted by investment, consumer spending and government outlays. ADP's \*\*+90k\*\* was the first hiring pickup since May, led by education/health.
\- \*\*The Fed backed away from October.\*\* NY Fed's Williams said Tuesday there is "no need for urgency" to hike again after September. October hike odds fell from \~70% Monday to roughly 50/50. He still sees one more hike "late this year."
\- \*\*Oil is rising again,\*\* up \*\*1.1% to $90.37\*\* after falling 2.5% Tuesday on signs Middle East exports are recovering. Iran received the US response to its latest proposal, but talks have stalled.
\- \*\*AI/semis:\*\* \*\*Micron reports after the close\*\*, the first big test of memory/AI demand this season.
\## 📊 Breadth / divergence
\`\`\`
ES (S&P 500) +0.07% NQ (Nasdaq-100) -0.09%
YM (Dow) +0.07% RTY (Russ 2000) -0.02%
\`\`\`
\- \*\*Flat and undecided.\*\* All four are within ±0.1%, and the market is looking past the 8:30 prints to Micron and Friday's payrolls.
\## 🔁 Sector rotation (rel to SPY)
\*(5-day lookback — SPY itself −1.19% over the week)\*
\`\`\`
LEADERS (rotating IN, 5d rel) LAGGARDS (rotating OUT, 5d rel)
XLV Health Care +1.68 XLY Consumer Disc -1.64
SMH Semis +1.10 XLB Materials -1.64
XLE Energy +0.80 XLRE Real Estate -1.54
XLI Industrials +0.52 ARKK Growth/spec -1.17
\`\`\`
\- \*\*What's happening:\*\* In a down week, money moved into \*\*health care (XLV, a classic defensive)\*\*, \*\*semis (SMH, chipmakers like NVDA/MU)\*\* and \*\*energy (XLE, a crude play)\*\*. It left \*\*consumer discretionary (XLY: retail, autos, travel)\*\*, \*\*materials (XLB)\*\*, \*\*real estate (XLRE, the most rate-sensitive)\*\* and \*\*speculative growth (ARKK)\*\*.
\- \*\*The story + so-what:\*\* The market is bracing for \*\*higher rates for longer\*\*, selling rate-sensitive groups and buying defensives and energy. Semis are the one offense exception (\*\*SMH +1.3% rel yesterday\*\*), so Micron tonight decides whether they keep that bid.
\## 📈 Macro pulse (moves, not levels)
\- \*\*Yields fell across the curve, led by the front end:\*\* 2Y \*\*−5bp\*\* (4.84%), 10Y \*\*−3.5bp\*\* (5.22%), 30Y −2.5bp (5.57%). This \*\*bull steepener\*\* fits the lower October hike odds, though the 10Y is still above 5.2%.
\- \*\*Vol is calm.\*\* As of Tuesday's close the curve was in \*\*contango\*\* (VIX9D 14.21 < VIX 16.04), so there is no near-term fear premium even with Micron and payrolls ahead.
\- \*\*Oil is the counterweight:\*\* WTI \*\*+1.1%\*\*. With crude near $90, the inflation case for a hike stays alive.
\## 🚨 Event gate
\- \*\*Today:\*\* ADP, PCE and GDP are ✅ \*\*done\*\*. Still ahead: \*\*Chicago PMI 9:45 ET\*\* · \*\*Waller 3:00 PM\*\* (topic is payments, not policy) · \*\*Micron after the close\*\*.
\- \*\*Thu Oct 1:\*\* jobless claims 8:30 · \*\*ISM Manufacturing 10:00\*\* · Fed: Waller 10:00, \*\*Jefferson 1:30 PM ("U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy", the one to watch)\*\*, Bowman 3:00, Cook 3:30.
\- \*\*Fri Oct 2: T1 — September jobs report 8:30 ET.\*\* It is the swing factor for the October hike debate. Next after that: FOMC minutes Oct 7, CPI Oct 14.
\- \*\*Wildcards:\*\* Bullish if Micron guides strong, payrolls come in cool, or Iran talks progress. Bearish if Micron's outlook disappoints, payrolls run hot and put October back in play, or crude spikes.
\## 🧭 Regime read (generalized)
\- \*\*Near-term dealer gamma is negative on both indices, and spot sits just below the flip.\*\* SPY is \~764 vs a flip of \*\*\~765\*\*, with an unusually tight box between the \*\*761 put wall\*\* and the \*\*766 call wall\*\*. The structural full-chain flip is slightly higher at \~767. QQQ is \~738 vs a flip of \*\*\~740\*\*, with walls at \*\*730 / 745\*\*.
\- \*\*Below the flip (short gamma), dealers amplify moves,\*\* so breaks run further than usual. \*\*Above it (long gamma), moves get pinned toward the walls.\*\* A reclaim of SPY \~765–767 / QQQ \~740 would tip the tape toward stickier, range-bound trade.
\- Greeks are prior-session and will shift at the open. Going into Micron and payrolls in short gamma, event reactions are more likely to extend than fade.

# Today is Thursday, the 1st of October
## Upcoming events for Thursday, October 1st
- Stock splits:
- BGM @ **1:30**
- KUST @ **1:10**
- MYPS @ **1:10**
- Expected earnings:
ACN, ALAR, AYI, BTTC, CMMB, DAVA, EONR, HUBG, IPST, ITP, MKC, MKC.V, NKE, SMXT, VFS, VRAX
- Ex-div:
ACQQ, ACRT, ACSP, ADAML, ADAMM, ADAMN, ADAMZ, AGNCL, AGNCM, AGNCN, AGNCO, AGNCP, AGNCZ, AMUN, ANDE, ANGL, BALQ, BCLO, BEDY, BGRN, BKMI, BKMS, BMOP, BND, BNDP, BNDW, BNDX, BREM, BRHY, BRTR, CAIQ, CALI, CANQ, CHAD, CLOA, CPB, CPLS, CWCO, DVAL, EMB, EYEG, FALN, FIMU, FSTB, FULT, GNMA, GOLI, GPIQ, GPIX, GPRF, HBANL, HBANP, HOVNP, HYXF, IBGA, IBGB, IBGC, IBGK, IBGL, IBGM, IBTG, IBTH, IBTI, IBTJ, IBTK, IBTL, IBTM, IBTO, IBTP, IBTQ, IBTR, IEF, IEI, IGIB, IGSB, INBK, IQQQ, ISTB, IUSB, JEPQ, MBB, MULT, MYCF, MYCG, MYCH, MYCI, MYCJ, MYCK, MYCL, MYCM, MYCN, MYCO, MYCP, MYHA, MYHB, MYHC, MYHD, MYHE, MYHF, MYMF, MYMG, MYMH, MYMI, MYMJ, MYMK, MYML, NCPB, NPFI, NUSB, ODTE, PCMM, PEGA, PFF, PLPC, PMBS, PPH, PSC, PSET, PY, QQQT, QQQY, ROCQ, ROCY, SATA, SHY, SKOR, SLQD, SUSB, SUSC, TAXI, TAXS, TAXT, THFF, TLT, TRUC, TRUD, TRUF, TRUH, TRUI, TRUM, TRUN, TRUO, TRUR, TRUT, TRUU, ULTI, USFI, USIG, USMC, USOY, VBCA, VBCB, VBCC, VBCD, VBCE, VBCF, VBCG, VBCH, VBCI, VBCJ, VBIL, VCIT, VCLT, VCRB, VCSH, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VGUS, VLGEA, VMBS, VPLS, VSNT, VTC, VTIP, VWOB, WABF, WASH, WTFCN, YLDE, YQQQ
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (actual: 90K, consensus: 73K, previous: 36K)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (actual: 3.7%, consensus: 5.0%, previous: 5.0%)
- Chicago PMI (actual: 58.8, consensus: 51.2, previous: 47.1)
- Core PCE Price Index (actual: 0.2%, consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.1%)
- Core PCE Price Index (actual: 3.0%, consensus: 3.3%, previous: 3.0%)
- Core PCE Prices (actual: 3.30%, consensus: 3.60%, previous: 4.40%)
- Corporate Profits (actual: 7.7%, consensus: 8.2%, previous: 0.5%)
- Crude Oil Imports (actual: -0.468M, previous: 0.369M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (actual: 0.922M, consensus: -0.700M, previous: 2.969M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (actual: 0.553M, previous: 2.266M)
- Dallas Fed PCE (actual: 1.90%, previous: 1.90%)
- Distillate Fuel Production (actual: -0.156M, previous: -0.068M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (actual: -0.554M, previous: -0.519M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (actual: -2.251M, consensus: -0.200M, previous: -0.428M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (actual: -1.5%, previous: -2.8%)
- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- GDP (actual: 2.2%, consensus: 1.5%, previous: 2.1%)
- GDP Price Index (actual: 6.1%, consensus: 6.4%, previous: 3.6%)
- GDP Sales (actual: 2.8%, consensus: 2.2%, previous: 1.9%)
- Gasoline Inventories (actual: -1.684M, consensus: -0.500M, previous: -1.686M)
- Gasoline Production (actual: -0.124M, previous: -0.054M)
- Goods Trade Balance (actual: -132.60B, consensus: -116.30B, previous: -118.80B)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (actual: -0.620M, previous: 0.346M)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (actual: 7.30%, previous: 7.12%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (actual: -6.0%, previous: -1.5%)
- MBA Purchase Index (actual: 148.2, previous: 154.9)
- Mortgage Market Index (actual: 213.6, previous: 227.3)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (actual: 557.8, previous: 611.0)
- PCE Price index (actual: 3.4%, consensus: 3.7%, previous: 3.4%)
- PCE Prices (actual: 5.0%, consensus: 5.3%, previous: 4.6%)
- PCE price index (actual: 0.3%, consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.1%)
- Personal Income (actual: 0.2%, consensus: 0.5%, previous: 0.3%)
- Personal Spending (actual: 0.9%, consensus: 0.8%, previous: 0.1%)
- Real Consumer Spending (actual: 3.8%, consensus: 3.4%, previous: 0.5%)
- Real Personal Consumption (actual: 0.6%, previous: 0.1%)
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto (actual: 0.1%, previous: 0.8%)
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
- Wholesale Inventories (actual: 0.7%, consensus: 0.5%, previous: 1.3%)
## Upcoming events for Friday, October 2nd
- Stock splits:
- RETO @ **1:20**
- ZCMD @ **1:2**
- Expected earnings:
CELU, ENLV, HTLM, LNAI
- Ex-div:
ALCO, ATNI, CHAD, CSCO, HBNC, LFMDP, MORN, PKBK, RGLD, ROP, SATA, THRM
## Upcoming events for Saturday, October 3rd
- Economic events and announcements:
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (previous: 3.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%)
- Average Weekly Hours (consensus: 34.3, previous: 34.4)
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (previous: -0.8K)
- CFTC Copper speculative net positions (previous: 90.5K)
- CFTC Corn speculative net positions (previous: 535.8K)
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 141.1K)
- CFTC Gold speculative net positions (previous: 225.9K)
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (previous: 56.1K)
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (previous: -216.5K)
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (previous: -133.2K)
- CFTC Silver speculative net positions (previous: 25.4K)
- CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (previous: 281.6K)
- CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (previous: -7.4K)
- Durables Excluding Defense (previous: 0.1%)
- Durables Excluding Transport (previous: 0.3%)
- Factory Orders (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.9%)
- Factory orders ex transportation (previous: 0.6%)
- Fed Logan Speaks
- Government Payrolls (previous: 35.0K)
- Manufacturing Payrolls (consensus: 10K, previous: 16K)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus: 89K, previous: 162K)
- Participation Rate (previous: 61.6%)
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus: 82K, previous: 127K)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 16.30M, previous: 16.80M)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (previous: 455)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (previous: 599)
- U6 Unemployment Rate (previous: 7.7%)
- Unemployment Rate (consensus: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%)
^^^^2026-10-01