AXIO
Axiom Oil and Gas Corp
stock OTC

**TLDR**
* LifeVantage is a $65M-cap MLM nutraceutical company that got crushed when their MindBody GLP-1 product cratered after pharma GLP-1 (Wegovy/Zepbound) became more accessible
* The stock fell from $15 to $4 over a year, but the bear thesis is largely priced in at this point.
* Short data is compelling: SI is around \~36-46% of float, DTC is over 20 days, and the cost-to-borrow went from 2% to 26% in a little over a month. **Available shares to short: 0.49% of float**.
* New CEO Terrence Moorehead starts later this summer. He took Nature's Sunshine, another nutraceutical MLM company from $370M revenue and \~$25M EBITDA to $450M and \~$72M EBITDA.
* Insider Dayton Judd has been buying directly in the open market at $4.50-4.65
* Q3 earnings May 6 could start/accelerate a squeeze, or kill it.
**What does this company do?**
LifeVantage sells a variety of supplements through an MLM model. Main one is Protandim, a herbal blend for oxidative-stress. Others include: TrueScience (skincare), AXIO (energy drinks), Petandim (for dogs, lol), and a bunch of other supplements. The two products that matter for this thesis are MindBody GLP-1 and LoveBiome:
* MindBody GLP-1 System: launched October 2024 right when everyone wanted GLP-1 access but couldn't afford Wegovy. It claims to elevate your body's own GLP-1 production. This was the home-run product that pushed Q2 FY25 revenue to $67.8M and the stock to $15. Then big pharma increased its supply and dropped pricing, crushing demand for MindBody.
* LoveBiome which they just bought in October 2025 for $3.7M. It contributed $4.1M in its first full quarter
Roughly 70% of revenue comes from auto-ship subscription with most of it coming from the Americas, and Asia (mainly Japan)
**Why is the stock in the dumps? The short thesis**
Three things hit at once over the last 6 months
* Their GLP1 is dying. Revenue down 27.8% YoY, and gross margin fell from 80.5% to 74%. Management cut 2026 guidance from $225-240M revenue down to $185-200M.
* CEO Steve Fife announced retirement on the same Feb 4 earnings call. Stock dropped from $5.55 → $4.20. Fife stays through April 30. Then we have Mike Beindorff as interim CEO for until Moorehead starts on Aug 5. Four months without a real CEO during a turnaround. Not great
* They filed a $75M S-3 mixed shelf on March 10 aka dilution sometime sooner or later
 
**Why I think the bottom is (probably) in**
**The Moorehead hire is legit**
Terrence Moorehead CEO hire. He was CEO of Nature's Sunshine (NATR) from 2018 through 2025. Under his watch:
* Revenue went up 22%
* Adj. EBITDA went up 190%
* EBITDA margin went from 7% to 16%
* And he did this in MLM. Same channel, same headwinds, same regulatory environment. He’s the right pick for the job
His comp package is also revealing: base $850K, $2.8M time-based RSUs, and $4.7M in performance share units tied to revenue and EBITDA margin. To me, that shows alignment and conviction
**The Sudbury insider buys**
Dayton Judd runs Sudbury Capital, which holds \~830K shares (\~6.5% of LFVN). He's also a director. In Feb-Mar, he bought 33k shares at $4.51-$4.65, so about $152K out of his own pocket. In 2023, this guy ran a proxy fight against this company in 2023 so he’s not inherently a friendly insider. He's a value-activist
**New dividend and $60M buyback**
On the on the last call, they announced a $0.045 quarterly dividend (3.5% yield) AND a $60M buyback. Tbh most likely they won’t use the full buyback but the dividend matters. Management is trying to signal they believe in a turnaround.
**The core business is still profitable**
This is the part that bears miss. Even without including MindBody and LoveBiome, and their other products got \~$170M revenue at 78%+ gross margin. They have no debt, $10M cash, an untapped revolving credit line, and positive operating cash flow.
At a $65M market cap on $185-200M of guided revenue, you're paying 0.33x EV/Revenue. The MLM median (Herbalife, Nu Skin, Usana, Nature's Sunshine) is about 0.65x. Even applying a 50% peer discount for their issues, fair value still comes out to $5.50-6.50 where it’s at right now. So the stock is roughly fairly priced without factoring a potential turnaround.
**The short setup**
[Official FINRA numbers](https://preview.redd.it/fstqfuzksuxg1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eacdf6ee67904ef31eb04f382c3be425eb89475)
SI has been pretty stable. DTC is higher mainly bc of volume lowering
[Ortex data for the last month](https://preview.redd.it/27hc36itsuxg1.png?width=3821&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5915fd13b9adc60ec5ec1fbb86239162a55a329)
There’s been a recent uptick in SI, but the notable data is the higher CTB and lower available shares to short in the last week. Entering short positions while the interest fee is 26% implies they’re playing May earnings rather than holding long-term. Available shares to short is not even at half a percentage point, so it’s going to be very difficult to continue to short anymore unless current shorts cover.
There’s a big discrepancy between the official and Ortex’s free float percentage where FINRA 4/15 SI % is about 35% while Ortex shows 46%. The difference is from the increased SI and because Ortex’s methodology excludes non-lendable holders from the free float which I think is more accurate.
**Risks**
* Q3 prints another big miss. I think there’s a higher chance it doesn’t miss, but it’s still kind of a toss-up. Important factors is how their GLP-1 product and LoveBiome are doing
* They actually tap the S-3 shelf before earnings. This is unlikely bc they have no immediate cash need and they are less likely to do it now with a depressed price unless they know their next earnings is really fkn ugly
* This stock isn’t as popular as bigger names like CAR
**The play**
Buy shares/calls, hoping to catch additional price increases / short covering up until May earnings and sell some/all before then to de-risk. Hold past earnings for higher risk/reward.
**Positions**
100 May 15 $7.5 calls. Might add more depending on price action and SI data
NFA, don’t bet the farm.

**TLDR**
* LifeVantage is a $65M-cap MLM nutraceutical company that got crushed when their MindBody GLP-1 product cratered after pharma GLP-1 (Wegovy/Zepbound) became more accessible
* The stock fell from $15 to $4 over a year, but the bear thesis is largely priced in at this point.
* Short data is compelling: SI is around \~36-46% of float, DTC is over 20 days, and the cost-to-borrow went from 2% to 26% in a little over a month. **Available shares to short: 0.49% of float**.
* New CEO Terrence Moorehead starts later this summer. He took Nature's Sunshine, another nutraceutical MLM company from $370M revenue and \~$25M EBITDA to $450M and \~$72M EBITDA.
* Insider Dayton Judd has been buying directly in the open market at $4.50-4.65
* Q3 earnings May 6 could start/accelerate a squeeze, or kill it.
**What does this company do?**
LifeVantage sells a variety of supplements through an MLM model. Main one is Protandim, a herbal blend for oxidative-stress. Others include: TrueScience (skincare), AXIO (energy drinks), Petandim (for dogs, lol), and a bunch of other supplements. The two products that matter for this thesis are MindBody GLP-1 and LoveBiome:
* MindBody GLP-1 System: launched October 2024 right when everyone wanted GLP-1 access but couldn't afford Wegovy. It claims to elevate your body's own GLP-1 production. This was the home-run product that pushed Q2 FY25 revenue to $67.8M and the stock to $15. Then big pharma increased its supply and dropped pricing, crushing demand for MindBody.
* LoveBiome which they just bought in October 2025 for $3.7M. It contributed $4.1M in its first full quarter
Roughly 70% of revenue comes from auto-ship subscription with most of it coming from the Americas, and Asia (mainly Japan)
**Why is the stock in the dumps? The short thesis**
Three things hit at once over the last 6 months
* Their GLP1 is dying. Revenue down 27.8% YoY, and gross margin fell from 80.5% to 74%. Management cut 2026 guidance from $225-240M revenue down to $185-200M.
* CEO Steve Fife announced retirement on the same Feb 4 earnings call. Stock dropped from $5.55 → $4.20. Fife stays through April 30. Then we have Mike Beindorff as interim CEO for until Moorehead starts on Aug 5. Four months without a real CEO during a turnaround. Not great
* They filed a $75M S-3 mixed shelf on March 10 aka dilution sometime sooner or later
 
**Why I think the bottom is (probably) in**
**The Moorehead hire is legit**
Terrence Moorehead CEO hire. He was CEO of Nature's Sunshine (NATR) from 2018 through 2025. Under his watch:
* Revenue went up 22%
* Adj. EBITDA went up 190%
* EBITDA margin went from 7% to 16%
* And he did this in MLM. Same channel, same headwinds, same regulatory environment. He’s the right pick for the job
His comp package is also revealing: base $850K, $2.8M time-based RSUs, and $4.7M in performance share units tied to revenue and EBITDA margin. To me, that shows alignment and conviction
**The Sudbury insider buys**
Dayton Judd runs Sudbury Capital, which holds \~830K shares (\~6.5% of LFVN). He's also a director. In Feb-Mar, he bought 33k shares at $4.51-$4.65, so about $152K out of his own pocket. In 2023, this guy ran a proxy fight against this company in 2023 so he’s not inherently a friendly insider. He's a value-activist
**New dividend and $60M buyback**
On the on the last call, they announced a $0.045 quarterly dividend (3.5% yield) AND a $60M buyback. Tbh most likely they won’t use the full buyback but the dividend matters. Management is trying to signal they believe in a turnaround.
**The core business is still profitable**
This is the part that bears miss. Even without including MindBody and LoveBiome, and their other products got \~$170M revenue at 78%+ gross margin. They have no debt, $10M cash, an untapped revolving credit line, and positive operating cash flow.
At a $65M market cap on $185-200M of guided revenue, you're paying 0.33x EV/Revenue. The MLM median (Herbalife, Nu Skin, Usana, Nature's Sunshine) is about 0.65x. Even applying a 50% peer discount for their issues, fair value still comes out to $5.50-6.50 where it’s at right now. So the stock is roughly fairly priced without factoring a potential turnaround.
**The short setup**
[Official FINRA numbers](https://preview.redd.it/fstqfuzksuxg1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eacdf6ee67904ef31eb04f382c3be425eb89475)
SI has been pretty stable. DTC is higher mainly bc of volume lowering
[Ortex data for the last month](https://preview.redd.it/27hc36itsuxg1.png?width=3821&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5915fd13b9adc60ec5ec1fbb86239162a55a329)
There’s been a recent uptick in SI, but the notable data is the higher CTB and lower available shares to short in the last week. Entering short positions while the interest fee is 26% implies they’re playing May earnings rather than holding long-term. Available shares to short is not even at half a percentage point, so it’s going to be very difficult to continue to short anymore unless current shorts cover.
There’s a big discrepancy between the official and Ortex’s free float percentage where FINRA 4/15 SI % is about 35% while Ortex shows 46%. The difference is from the increased SI and because Ortex’s methodology excludes non-lendable holders from the free float which I think is more accurate.
**Risks**
* Q3 prints another big miss. I think there’s a higher chance it doesn’t miss, but it’s still kind of a toss-up. Important factors is how their GLP-1 product and LoveBiome are doing
* They actually tap the S-3 shelf before earnings. This is unlikely bc they have no immediate cash need and they are less likely to do it now with a depressed price unless they know their next earnings is really fkn ugly
* This stock isn’t as popular as bigger names like CAR
**The play**
Buy shares/calls, hoping to catch additional price increases / short covering up until May earnings and sell some/all before then to de-risk. Hold past earnings for higher risk/reward.
**Positions**
100 May 15 $7.5 calls. Might add more depending on price action and SI data
NFA, don’t bet the farm.