ASCN
ABSECON BANCORP
stock OTC

Hey All,
Longtime lurker, first time poster. I'm a small fish in the giant pond of value investing (and am relatively new to valuing stocks so please feel free to shred my thesis). Let me preface this with what I'm pitching is a microcap. Its not some pump and dump BS, but it is a microcap. If thats not your jam, feel free to skip my shpeal.
AHC is not what I would call a sexy business; they handle call button hardware + software in hospitals, nursing homes, and care centers. They're headquartered in Australia but have a presence in Asia, Europe, and the US (they have a R&D hub + mfg facility in both Texas and North Carolina).
The core of my thesis is that its blatantly obvious that the gap between the amount of young people and the amount of old people is widening tremendously. Japan is a clear example of this where over 30% of their population is 65+. Kids are expensive (can confirm; I've got two) and the way us peons feel these days is that we can hardly afford to take care of our own costs. Many of us work two jobs and that leaves less and less free time for other stuff; that includes taking care of our own parents as they get older. That means grandma and grandpa tend to get stuffed into nursing homes at an ever increasing rate.
As a firefighter, I can tell you first hand that those places suck. All of them. I dont care if you're shelling out $5000/mo or $1/mo, they suck. And old people fall literally ALL.DAY. The good news is that even in the dingiest of places, they all have call buttons (whether they're pull cords, push buttons, or a paper cup with a string that runs to the nurses station). Most of us, including myself, just assumed those were magic; kind of like when you flip a light switch on. You dont really think about where that power comes from, just that it does what you want when you flip it. Same goes for call buttons.
AHC is a player in both the hardware side AND the software side. They have 3 core businesses:
1. Tacera - their flagship product. Think big tier 1 hospitals.
2. Medicom - lower cost nurse call system for tier 2 or tier 3 hospitals. This is the value menu option.
3. **Pulse Mobile** \- an app that hospitals can install on the phones they give nurses. The call button links directly to this. I highlight this one because this (in my opinion) is going to be the growth driver for the next 2-5 years. They recently got a contract to roll this out to approx. 180 hospitals in the US. As many of you know, hospitals are cheap. And they're very labor intensive. So what do they try to do? They try to reduce their largest overhead (people). This is happening in Michigan right now at a local hospital; the nurses have been on strike for almost a year fighting for less pts/nurse. I stand with them, but its not going to happen. Like I said, hospitals are cheap. Less nurses means less people sitting at a nursing station; hospitals want them doing something. That means they're going to be on their feet a lot more, hence a call button that links to a phone is going to be a ever increasing luxury.
Competition - they really only have one direct comp and its a swiss company. Ill put the comparison below. There are also major conglomerates that offer solutions (think Honeywell and Siemens). The revenues they generate from these services arent even a rounding error on their balance sheet. And once one of these services are in a location, they're pretty sticky. Currently the TAM for this segment is expected to be roughly in the $4.5 billion range by 2030 (because of you know, old people). Currently AHC forcasts a FY26 revenue of 90m. Thats not even 3% of the current market. If you factor in the fact that they've grown revenues at 27% for the past 5 years, its not hard to see how they can capture a larger chunk of that.
Financials and Comp:
They have approx. 14m in net cash, and 0 debt. They are FCF positive (FY25 was 6.3m). Revs in 2025 were 81m and they're guiding to between 90-95m for FY26.
Comp:
AHC - MC - 84m, EV 74m, TTM Rev 81.4m, 5 Year CAGR 27%, Gross Profit Margin 53%, EBITDA Margin 17.2%, P/S 1.03X, EV/EBITDA 5.3x, EV/FCF 11.7x
ASCN - MC -326m, EV 285m, TTM Rev 497m, **5 Year CAGR 0.05% (HORRIBLE),** Gross Profit Margin 47.2%, EBITDA Margin 11.7%, P/S 0.63x, EV/EBITDA 4.7x, EV/FCF 7.5x
Yes, ASCN is cheaper on some metrics, but they've also all but stagnated in growth.
Valuation:
Currently AHC trades at 0.22 AUD. In my base case DCF I modeled rev growth declining to 9% by 2030 and EBITDA margin expanding to 18.5%. This arrives at around $0.36.
In my bull case, I assume rev growth of 20%. This pushes more towards the $0.55 range. I believe if their Pulse Mobile software achieves what they believe it can, this will just be the start of a re-rating higher.
Happy to chat about any questions and like I said, I'm new. Tear it to pieces if you want. Might help me learn something.

Hey All,
Longtime lurker, first time poster. I'm a small fish in the giant pond of value investing (and am relatively new to valuing stocks so please feel free to shred my thesis). Let me preface this with what I'm pitching is a microcap. Its not some pump and dump BS, but it is a microcap. If thats not your jam, feel free to skip my shpeal.
AHC is not what I would call a sexy business; they handle call button hardware + software in hospitals, nursing homes, and care centers. They're headquartered in Australia but have a presence in Asia, Europe, and the US (they have a R&D hub + mfg facility in both Texas and North Carolina).
The core of my thesis is that its blatantly obvious that the gap between the amount of young people and the amount of old people is widening tremendously. Japan is a clear example of this where over 30% of their population is 65+. Kids are expensive (can confirm; I've got two) and the way us peons feel these days is that we can hardly afford to take care of our own costs. Many of us work two jobs and that leaves less and less free time for other stuff; that includes taking care of our own parents as they get older. That means grandma and grandpa tend to get stuffed into nursing homes at an ever increasing rate.
As a firefighter, I can tell you first hand that those places suck. All of them. I dont care if you're shelling out $5000/mo or $1/mo, they suck. And old people fall literally ALL.DAY. The good news is that even in the dingiest of places, they all have call buttons (whether they're pull cords, push buttons, or a paper cup with a string that runs to the nurses station). Most of us, including myself, just assumed those were magic; kind of like when you flip a light switch on. You dont really think about where that power comes from, just that it does what you want when you flip it. Same goes for call buttons.
AHC is a player in both the hardware side AND the software side. They have 3 core businesses:
1. Tacera - their flagship product. Think big tier 1 hospitals.
2. Medicom - lower cost nurse call system for tier 2 or tier 3 hospitals. This is the value menu option.
3. **Pulse Mobile** \- an app that hospitals can install on the phones they give nurses. The call button links directly to this. I highlight this one because this (in my opinion) is going to be the growth driver for the next 2-5 years. They recently got a contract to roll this out to approx. 180 hospitals in the US. As many of you know, hospitals are cheap. And they're very labor intensive. So what do they try to do? They try to reduce their largest overhead (people). This is happening in Michigan right now at a local hospital; the nurses have been on strike for almost a year fighting for less pts/nurse. I stand with them, but its not going to happen. Like I said, hospitals are cheap. Less nurses means less people sitting at a nursing station; hospitals want them doing something. That means they're going to be on their feet a lot more, hence a call button that links to a phone is going to be a ever increasing luxury.
Competition - they really only have one direct comp and its a swiss company. Ill put the comparison below. There are also major conglomerates that offer solutions (think Honeywell and Siemens). The revenues they generate from these services arent even a rounding error on their balance sheet. And once one of these services are in a location, they're pretty sticky. Currently the TAM for this segment is expected to be roughly in the $4.5 billion range by 2030 (because of you know, old people). Currently AHC forcasts a FY26 revenue of 90m. Thats not even 3% of the current market. If you factor in the fact that they've grown revenues at 27% for the past 5 years, its not hard to see how they can capture a larger chunk of that.
Financials and Comp:
They have approx. 14m in net cash, and 0 debt. They are FCF positive (FY25 was 6.3m). Revs in 2025 were 81m and they're guiding to between 90-95m for FY26.
Comp:
AHC - MC - 84m, EV 74m, TTM Rev 81.4m, 5 Year CAGR 27%, Gross Profit Margin 53%, EBITDA Margin 17.2%, P/S 1.03X, EV/EBITDA 5.3x, EV/FCF 11.7x
ASCN - MC -326m, EV 285m, TTM Rev 497m, **5 Year CAGR 0.05% (HORRIBLE),** Gross Profit Margin 47.2%, EBITDA Margin 11.7%, P/S 0.63x, EV/EBITDA 4.7x, EV/FCF 7.5x
Yes, ASCN is cheaper on some metrics, but they've also all but stagnated in growth.
Valuation:
Currently AHC trades at 0.22 AUD. In my base case DCF I modeled rev growth declining to 9% by 2030 and EBITDA margin expanding to 18.5%. This arrives at around $0.36.
In my bull case, I assume rev growth of 20%. This pushes more towards the $0.55 range. I believe if their Pulse Mobile software achieves what they believe it can, this will just be the start of a re-rating higher.
Happy to chat about any questions and like I said, I'm new. Tear it to pieces if you want. Might help me learn something.

Hey All,
Longtime lurker, first time poster. I'm a small fish in the giant pond of value investing (and am relatively new to valuing stocks so please feel free to shred my thesis). Let me preface this with what I'm pitching is a microcap. Its not some pump and dump BS, but it is a microcap. If thats not your jam, feel free to skip my shpeal.
AHC is not what I would call a sexy business; they handle call button hardware + software in hospitals, nursing homes, and care centers. They're headquartered in Australia but have a presence in Asia, Europe, and the US (they have a R&D hub + mfg facility in both Texas and North Carolina).
The core of my thesis is that its blatantly obvious that the gap between the amount of young people and the amount of old people is widening tremendously. Japan is a clear example of this where over 30% of their population is 65+. Kids are expensive (can confirm; I've got two) and the way us peons feel these days is that we can hardly afford to take care of our own costs. Many of us work two jobs and that leaves less and less free time for other stuff; that includes taking care of our own parents as they get older. That means grandma and grandpa tend to get stuffed into nursing homes at an ever increasing rate.
As a firefighter, I can tell you first hand that those places suck. All of them. I dont care if you're shelling out $5000/mo or $1/mo, they suck. And old people fall literally ALL.DAY. The good news is that even in the dingiest of places, they all have call buttons (whether they're pull cords, push buttons, or a paper cup with a string that runs to the nurses station). Most of us, including myself, just assumed those were magic; kind of like when you flip a light switch on. You dont really think about where that power comes from, just that it does what you want when you flip it. Same goes for call buttons.
AHC is a player in both the hardware side AND the software side. They have 3 core businesses:
1. Tacera - their flagship product. Think big tier 1 hospitals.
2. Medicom - lower cost nurse call system for tier 2 or tier 3 hospitals. This is the value menu option.
3. **Pulse Mobile** \- an app that hospitals can install on the phones they give nurses. The call button links directly to this. I highlight this one because this (in my opinion) is going to be the growth driver for the next 2-5 years. They recently got a contract to roll this out to approx. 180 hospitals in the US. As many of you know, hospitals are cheap. And they're very labor intensive. So what do they try to do? They try to reduce their largest overhead (people). This is happening in Michigan right now at a local hospital; the nurses have been on strike for almost a year fighting for less pts/nurse. I stand with them, but its not going to happen. Like I said, hospitals are cheap. Less nurses means less people sitting at a nursing station; hospitals want them doing something. That means they're going to be on their feet a lot more, hence a call button that links to a phone is going to be a ever increasing luxury.
Competition - they really only have one direct comp and its a swiss company. Ill put the comparison below. There are also major conglomerates that offer solutions (think Honeywell and Siemens). The revenues they generate from these services arent even a rounding error on their balance sheet. And once one of these services are in a location, they're pretty sticky. Currently the TAM for this segment is expected to be roughly in the $4.5 billion range by 2030 (because of you know, old people). Currently AHC forcasts a FY26 revenue of 90m. Thats not even 3% of the current market. If you factor in the fact that they've grown revenues at 27% for the past 5 years, its not hard to see how they can capture a larger chunk of that.
Financials and Comp:
They have approx. 14m in net cash, and 0 debt. They are FCF positive (FY25 was 6.3m). Revs in 2025 were 81m and they're guiding to between 90-95m for FY26.
Comp:
AHC - MC - 84m, EV 74m, TTM Rev 81.4m, 5 Year CAGR 27%, Gross Profit Margin 53%, EBITDA Margin 17.2%, P/S 1.03X, EV/EBITDA 5.3x, EV/FCF 11.7x
ASCN - MC -326m, EV 285m, TTM Rev 497m, **5 Year CAGR 0.05% (HORRIBLE),** Gross Profit Margin 47.2%, EBITDA Margin 11.7%, P/S 0.63x, EV/EBITDA 4.7x, EV/FCF 7.5x
Yes, ASCN is cheaper on some metrics, but they've also all but stagnated in growth.
Valuation:
Currently AHC trades at 0.22 AUD. In my base case DCF I modeled rev growth declining to 9% by 2030 and EBITDA margin expanding to 18.5%. This arrives at around $0.36.
In my bull case, I assume rev growth of 20%. This pushes more towards the $0.55 range. I believe if their Pulse Mobile software achieves what they believe it can, this will just be the start of a re-rating higher.
Happy to chat about any questions and like I said, I'm new. Tear it to pieces if you want. Might help me learn something.

Hey All,
Longtime lurker, first time poster. I'm a small fish in the giant pond of value investing (and am relatively new to valuing stocks so please feel free to shred my thesis). Let me preface this with what I'm pitching is a microcap. Its not some pump and dump BS, but it is a microcap. If thats not your jam, feel free to skip my shpeal.
AHC is not what I would call a sexy business; they handle call button hardware + software in hospitals, nursing homes, and care centers. They're headquartered in Australia but have a presence in Asia, Europe, and the US (they have a R&D hub + mfg facility in both Texas and North Carolina).
The core of my thesis is that its blatantly obvious that the gap between the amount of young people and the amount of old people is widening tremendously. Japan is a clear example of this where over 30% of their population is 65+. Kids are expensive (can confirm; I've got two) and the way us peons feel these days is that we can hardly afford to take care of our own costs. Many of us work two jobs and that leaves less and less free time for other stuff; that includes taking care of our own parents as they get older. That means grandma and grandpa tend to get stuffed into nursing homes at an ever increasing rate.
As a firefighter, I can tell you first hand that those places suck. All of them. I dont care if you're shelling out $5000/mo or $1/mo, they suck. And old people fall literally ALL.DAY. The good news is that even in the dingiest of places, they all have call buttons (whether they're pull cords, push buttons, or a paper cup with a string that runs to the nurses station). Most of us, including myself, just assumed those were magic; kind of like when you flip a light switch on. You dont really think about where that power comes from, just that it does what you want when you flip it. Same goes for call buttons.
AHC is a player in both the hardware side AND the software side. They have 3 core businesses:
1. Tacera - their flagship product. Think big tier 1 hospitals.
2. Medicom - lower cost nurse call system for tier 2 or tier 3 hospitals. This is the value menu option.
3. **Pulse Mobile** \- an app that hospitals can install on the phones they give nurses. The call button links directly to this. I highlight this one because this (in my opinion) is going to be the growth driver for the next 2-5 years. They recently got a contract to roll this out to approx. 180 hospitals in the US. As many of you know, hospitals are cheap. And they're very labor intensive. So what do they try to do? They try to reduce their largest overhead (people). This is happening in Michigan right now at a local hospital; the nurses have been on strike for almost a year fighting for less pts/nurse. I stand with them, but its not going to happen. Like I said, hospitals are cheap. Less nurses means less people sitting at a nursing station; hospitals want them doing something. That means they're going to be on their feet a lot more, hence a call button that links to a phone is going to be a ever increasing luxury.
Competition - they really only have one direct comp and its a swiss company. Ill put the comparison below. There are also major conglomerates that offer solutions (think Honeywell and Siemens). The revenues they generate from these services arent even a rounding error on their balance sheet. And once one of these services are in a location, they're pretty sticky. Currently the TAM for this segment is expected to be roughly in the $4.5 billion range by 2030 (because of you know, old people). Currently AHC forcasts a FY26 revenue of 90m. Thats not even 3% of the current market. If you factor in the fact that they've grown revenues at 27% for the past 5 years, its not hard to see how they can capture a larger chunk of that.
Financials and Comp:
They have approx. 14m in net cash, and 0 debt. They are FCF positive (FY25 was 6.3m). Revs in 2025 were 81m and they're guiding to between 90-95m for FY26.
Comp:
AHC - MC - 84m, EV 74m, TTM Rev 81.4m, 5 Year CAGR 27%, Gross Profit Margin 53%, EBITDA Margin 17.2%, P/S 1.03X, EV/EBITDA 5.3x, EV/FCF 11.7x
ASCN - MC -326m, EV 285m, TTM Rev 497m, **5 Year CAGR 0.05% (HORRIBLE),** Gross Profit Margin 47.2%, EBITDA Margin 11.7%, P/S 0.63x, EV/EBITDA 4.7x, EV/FCF 7.5x
Yes, ASCN is cheaper on some metrics, but they've also all but stagnated in growth.
Valuation:
Currently AHC trades at 0.22 AUD. In my base case DCF I modeled rev growth declining to 9% by 2030 and EBITDA margin expanding to 18.5%. This arrives at around $0.36.
In my bull case, I assume rev growth of 20%. This pushes more towards the $0.55 range. I believe if their Pulse Mobile software achieves what they believe it can, this will just be the start of a re-rating higher.
Happy to chat about any questions and like I said, I'm new. Tear it to pieces if you want. Might help me learn something.