WILD
VistaShares Animal Spirits Daily 2X Strategy ETF
stock NYSE

The AI scours my database (start in 2021), looks at IV, expected move $, price close before earnings, price close after earnings and assigns a ticker:
* HOT (usually hits or breaches EM)
* Warm (sometimes hits EM but usually doesn't breach)
* Cold (almost never breaches)

I then track the performance infographic style. Q3 earnings were horrible. Across all tickers tracked, 36% hit the expected move (lower than a coin flip!). Hot tickers underperformed by 9% of this baseline. Warm tickers were WILD, over performing by 14%. Cold tickers came in-line.
Things I have noticed across all 3 earnings quarters:
* **EXPENSIVE IVs** mute absolute movement. This is what killed HOT tickers. Their IVs hovered around expensive to VERY expensive and thus there was a lot of theta gang possibilities because of IV crush and failed delta movement. HOWEVER, who the hell is brave enough to sell premium on tickers that usually do 2-3x expected move? Not me !
* **Cheap IVs** were the catalyst for greater than expected performance. This was across the board and usually when MMs were under pricing earnings. WARM tickers fell in this pot.
* COLD movers + Expensive IVs were easy picking to sell IC at the expected move wings. I kept mine small, $2-$5 wide ICs at the wings and cleaned up. Only got hit once and it was defined and small so who cares.

Best performing ticker for the quarter? ABNB at 267% of EM!!

I think Q4 is going to be a banger .. I am sure everyone read the 60% of the SP500 is in bear market stuff ... I think warm tickers will continue to outperform as the hot tickers will again have HUGE IVs and thus muted movement. They REALLY need to surprise, like Dell last Q with the +$150 move or whatever it was.

DAMN LOL WILD RIDE WHATS UR PLAN TOMORROW