VSLR
VIVINT SOLAR, INC.
stock NYSE

I spent 10+ years in the industry working for these companies during the post-GFC bull run.

I worked for all these solar companies. Let me tell you why ENPH will never hit 300 again anytime soon.

*Do you understand WHY solar did so well for 10+ years?*
The Fed kept interest rates artificially low after 2008 GFC:
*"Saved the economy"*
And, again post-Covid.
*"Saved the economy, again"*
Except they didn't factor in the effect: **INFLATION** (transitory, he said, lol)
Investors were willing and able to pile in (and lose) cash into solar companies like *Sunrun, Vivint, Solar City*, etc.
Solar companies were operating on **very** cheap money.
*"But the Fed is lowering rates again"*
Yes, which will also keep **inflation high**.
Precious metals are pumping.
Treasuries are being dumped.
De-dollarization is in process.
**The macro is much differen't "this time" for the solar industry.**
Who in their right mind would light their cash on fire investing in solar companies, whether through stocks, options or direct capital investment into these companies?
Only people that want to lose money.
What home owner is going to actually finance solar these days when long term rates aren't coming down?
What home owner would put up liquid cash to pay for solar when they could invest it at bare minimum in QQQ or SPY or better yet GDX and SLV?
The "savings" from solar on your electricity bill are not better or equal to other means of investments.
Solar is a not a "consumer staple" - you don't need it. You just want it.
RIP SUNE, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, VSLR, SPWR, SCTY, TSLA, (their solar department is basically a skeleton crew)
Residential solar had its run. The "golden years" of making 20k a month selling "free solar" to homeowners is gone.
Investors aren't looking to pile in expensive cash into a failed business model.
ENPH makes good products. But the economic stage is not set for ENPH 300 again, not anytime soon.

I spent 10+ years in the industry working for these companies during the post-GFC bull run.

I worked for all these solar companies. Let me tell you why ENPH will never hit 300 again anytime soon.

*Do you understand WHY solar did so well for 10+ years?*
The Fed kept interest rates artificially low after 2008 GFC:
*"Saved the economy"*
And, again post-Covid.
*"Saved the economy, again"*
Except they didn't factor in the effect: **INFLATION** (transitory, he said, lol)
Investors were willing and able to pile in (and lose) cash into solar companies like *Sunrun, Vivint, Solar City*, etc.
Solar companies were operating on **very** cheap money.
*"But the Fed is lowering rates again"*
Yes, which will also keep **inflation high**.
Precious metals are pumping.
Treasuries are being dumped.
De-dollarization is in process.
**The macro is much differen't "this time" for the solar industry.**
Who in their right mind would light their cash on fire investing in solar companies, whether through stocks, options or direct capital investment into these companies?
Only people that want to lose money.
What home owner is going to actually finance solar these days when long term rates aren't coming down?
What home owner would put up liquid cash to pay for solar when they could invest it at bare minimum in QQQ or SPY or better yet GDX and SLV?
The "savings" from solar on your electricity bill are not better or equal to other means of investments.
Solar is a not a "consumer staple" - you don't need it. You just want it.
RIP SUNE, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, VSLR, SPWR, SCTY, TSLA, (their solar department is basically a skeleton crew)
Residential solar had its run. The "golden years" of making 20k a month selling "free solar" to homeowners is gone.
Investors aren't looking to pile in expensive cash into a failed business model.
ENPH makes good products. But the economic stage is not set for ENPH 300 again, not anytime soon.