VAR
Varian Medical Systems, Inc.
stock NYSE

Its possible that this isn't the right profession for you. Although there are many differences between Professionals and Retail, one of the most critical is discipline. The primary method of obtaining that discipline is to remind yourself that real (significant amounts) of money are at risk (also known as VAR). If that isn't enough to motivate, you may want to go back to selling office supplies or making widgets. Nothing wrong with menial labor, it's honorable work.

As I said, it's based on VAR models, so it isn't out of thin air. The problem is that it's written backwards for retail; VAR models are not 1% risk, they're 100% risk with 1% tolerance, and there's a whole thing.
It depends on how much certainty you need and what you think you're doing. When you trade with someone you're trading the risk of adverse outcome for them, whatever that may have been, and by taking on that risk you effectively attempt to convert it into a premium for yourself and then offload it to someone else in turn when you sell it ad infinitum. Much like VAR the concept of a Win Rate is severely misunderstood in unstable games because you don't need to win the maximum prize to win therefore your win rate is less about the odds of being right or successful and more about the odds of being within a zone of correctness and success.
So it's not "I will make +10 or -10", the binary state, it's "I can reliably make *upto* \+10 or lose *at most* \-10" which then puts us in an interval state and if you are interval state you have a means to trade risk without need for a solid percentage that offers a binary conditional state. Mind you, no one (but a few people like myself) actually trades like this because no one (except for a few people like myself) thinks like this. They know the words but not the applications.

Its possible that this isn't the right profession for you. Although there are many differences between Professionals and Retail, one of the most critical is discipline. The primary method of obtaining that discipline is to remind yourself that real (significant amounts) of money are at risk (also known as VAR). If that isn't enough to motivate, you may want to go back to selling office supplies or making widgets. Nothing wrong with menial labor, it's honorable work.

As I said, it's based on VAR models, so it isn't out of thin air. The problem is that it's written backwards for retail; VAR models are not 1% risk, they're 100% risk with 1% tolerance, and there's a whole thing.
It depends on how much certainty you need and what you think you're doing. When you trade with someone you're trading the risk of adverse outcome for them, whatever that may have been, and by taking on that risk you effectively attempt to convert it into a premium for yourself and then offload it to someone else in turn when you sell it ad infinitum. Much like VAR the concept of a Win Rate is severely misunderstood in unstable games because you don't need to win the maximum prize to win therefore your win rate is less about the odds of being right or successful and more about the odds of being within a zone of correctness and success.
So it's not "I will make +10 or -10", the binary state, it's "I can reliably make *upto* \+10 or lose *at most* \-10" which then puts us in an interval state and if you are interval state you have a means to trade risk without need for a solid percentage that offers a binary conditional state. Mind you, no one (but a few people like myself) actually trades like this because no one (except for a few people like myself) thinks like this. They know the words but not the applications.