PE
PARSLEY ENERGY INC
stock NYSE

Meh, this post is just trying to 'fix' the lagging ten years. I.e., "let's make sure that the 2016 earnings in the denominator are properly compensating for the current state" - that can be tax codes or whatever you want.
I brought up the dotcom analogy only because it's useful context. I agree with some of what you said, but again, it goes beyond the scope of what the chart is trying to do. If you want to really debate me, you have a lot of catching up to do, and you'd have to actually read the posts (I don't expect this, but again, don't try to argue past the scope of what I've presented without further context). Here's an excerpt from the post that directly aligns with something that you've said:
>If we can get away from temporal CAPE comparisons, we can actually make more informed forecasting decisions. A CAPE of 7x in 1980 vs 38x today doesn’t really tell us that much. Forward returns will be lower today, sure, but if bonds were yielding 1%, a 38x CAPE doesn’t really look that bad. So the better comparison set is against alternative investments.
>
>I highlight this because the more adjustments we make to the Shiller PE through time, ***the more likely we are to miss something material - in one period or another - that would be essential for maintaining comparability across the full data set.***
In regards to "the one that deflates the bubble most is the one that contributed to it the most", I would say that it's not a bubble if the deflator is structural. If the government doubles the money supply, then earnings are expected to double...that's permanent and not indicative of a bubble (unless they plan to undo that element later). And it makes something like the Shiller PE look like a bubble when its most likely not.
In terms of valuation, I agree I guess. But again, it's beyond the scope, and I have several articles that I can share, but I won't start from scratch trying to explain my way through it in a reddit comment section.
None of this is meant to be offensive, but you're arguing against the two paragraphs I've written here, but I've already put a lot of thought and effort into why these are reasonable adjustments. And I've already shared those with the world. I certainly welcome the critiques, but I can't step through it here with you from scratch.

I'm not doubting it will go up at all, but 14 PE is only considered "value" during a bull market where everything is still fine and dandy enough for can kicking to delay any problems and slowly solve it. You are focusing on market fundamentals that only work in normal times when market goes up, bond yields being above 5% mean Wall St will wait for the inevitable crash to go in at lower prices.
Is it going up eventually? Yeah
Are delusional overleveraged bols with short dated otm calls fucked? Also yeah

If MU goes to a PE of 5 in a year, who cares? You own shares of a company with a cash printer in a basement, the CEO says let's print cash and I'll buy the shares and give you a bigger percentage every quarter, we'll keep 50-100 bill sitting there, return the rest to investors tax free. Wall St. says I don't believe yo,u the last time I bought memory when there was a new Windows rollout and office replacement cycle peaked I got burned. Discounted future value of zero, beacuase it's physically impossible to own stocks through cycles! /s
If they actually started a cash dividend to compete with bonds, a whole nother type will start paging their nurse to call their broker on the landline will kick in, but I don't support that. It's a trigger though. Even NVDA is no longer offering 1-penny dividends, but many-penny dividends to prove they are serious.
When stats update, MU will have its lowing trailing PE in the last decade, probably. Every quarter, sequential quarter growth is less as a percentage because they have maxed out the fabs and 35% of margins are stickyish. But, every quarter, sequential quarter growth could start falling vs last (no sign of visibility of that), and the absolutely growth and YoY growth will beat everything else.
One would think a company with a lot of cash is one that investors would flee to in a global bond crisis, but today only has traditional flight to safetyish bets on software, oil and fertilizer and gold. is looking like

(Current stock price / FWD PE) $68.31 ÷ 19.05 = $3.5858 of implied forward EPS. Webull $3.5858 FWD EPS closely matches the NFLX published full-year 2026 EPS estimate of approximately $3.58–$3.59.
Break down of NFLX **2026 quarter EPS**
\- Q1 actual (includes the termination gain) = $1.23
\- Q2 actual = $0.80
\- Q3 Analyst estimate = $0.82
\- Q4 Analyst estimate = $0.74
** **
Total = $3.59
Netflix’s filings support the actual figures and inclusion of the fee; Zacks supplied the quarterly estimates. Summing the quarterly EPS is an approximation because share counts can change due to share buybacks etc …
Thus my conclusion: Webull & NFLX figures appear to use earnings that include the payment. Idk about other brokerage data FWD EPS.

The thing is MU doesn't even need to promise profit increase at this. It's at 14 PE which is crazy for a company that has locked in backlog for next 4 years and is actually expecting to grow even more during this time

What are these people smoking to think these three companies prices aren't just going up long term. Nvidias forward PE is miles less than Walmart even and the AI build out is predicted to continue into at least 2027

[Figure 1](https://riskpremium.substack.com/p/fixing-cape-does-liquidity-matter) illustrates why M2 is a better deflator than inflation. The data supports that adjustment.
And I think these are incredibly important things to look at because we were staring down a 40x (legacy) Shiller PE in 2021 when it really should've been closer to 25x (as long as you believe the tax rate and M2 adjustments are justified).
It helps explain why markets seemed to continue to defy gravity post 2018 or so. It has nothing to do with flows or 'the passive bid' and everything to do with structural changes to the market.
More here: [Earnings Mirage](https://riskpremium.substack.com/p/the-earnings-mirage)
***We're now back to dotcom levels, even after the adjustments***. That's really useful context, imo.

Everyone's eyeing 22K and 21.5K as Nifty's unbreakable floors.
True, valuation-wise Nifty is looking healthier, trading down near a comfortable PE of around 19.3—approaching those COVID-era value zones.
But what happens if Wall Street starts rolling over from its highs and FII outflows turn into a flood? Domestic SIPs are powerful, but can they absorb a global panic?
Where is Nifty really heading then? Drop your views below 👇📉

MU forward PE is 5 btw

Low PE is actually a bad thing according to this market

PE really doesn't seem to matter in this market anymore. just look at Tesla and Palantir. It's all vibes lately

Microns forward PE ratio is around 8. Let that sink in.

Regards out here dumping hyper growth stock MU with a 14 PE.

Exactly, PE ratios will have to compress to reflect this reality. I was looking at some stocks and their valuations over history and it is amazing that many of them traded at single digit trailing pes inspite of being quality companies. Why so? Because you could invest in Fds at 10-10.5% (2007-08). So inverse pe ratios have to be lower. We have been living in a low interest rate environment post 2008 and that has distorted how we price asset classes!!!

PE is lesser than ever and lesser than sector pe.
Example LT. Multiple decades worth order book. Successful executions.
PE is reduced from 120 to less than 30 in last 3 years whereas sales, profit, margin is continually improving.
https://preview.redd.it/jthkufjo6vsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c7da7bbfbe471a4ce64679c01b7600ac095230c

Lol MU PE is 13.

Most commercial loans and PE debt. They will be on world of pain. And there is lot of it out there

Crying about for last two years*
Indian markets are down 10% in the last 2y (and are most likely going to continue down) while other markets are booming, nasdaq 100 is up 50% south Korea, 100%+
India has completely missed out on the AI rally, earnings are falling and PE is through the roof

Priced in at ~14 TTM PE and ~4 forward PE?

why would that affect forward PE?