OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
stock NYSE

BX and OWL both pumping. Told you guys.

BLUE OWL CAPITAL ANNOUNCES SENIOR NOTES OFFERING - OWL

I'd say the bubble bursting will be a bit of a contagion... To me, that means at least one (if not both) of OpenAI or Anthropic go under. They can be a separate category for now, but that's probably what triggers it.
1) Memory and chips (INTC, AMD, NVDIA, DRAM, etc.) The demand for their product will fall through the floor. Depending on their exposure, NVDIA could be in a whole world of hurt if OpenAI/Anthropic can't pay their bills.
2) Neo clouds (CRWV, IREN, NBIS, ORCL, etc.) - a lot of those go bankrupt.
3) Financial players (OWL, SFTBY) - take a major hit. Possible takeovers depending on their exposure.
4) Hyper scalers - goes without saying that MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, SPCX (lol), and META all take some massive hits to their share price, but they'll be okay long term... well, maybe not SPCX.
5) Private Credit - this is the big one IMHO. OpenAI and Anthropic have turned increasingly to private credit. Private credit is already showing signs of cracking given the increasing use of PIKs from underlying holdings not being able to pay their bills. I wouldn't be surprised if some private credit funds go bankrupt. This is where the real contagion lies, depending on how bad it is.
6) AI companies - these are small players, but they use AI in some capacity. If they can switch to open source models, they may be fine.. Examples include RXRX, BB, SOUN, RZLV, etc. Most of these are already cheap and not making money. Guessing there will be some bankruptcies in this category.
7) Retirees - they're gonna get fucked when all of a sudden their pensions/401ks massively drop in value. Major indexes won't recover pre-bubble prices for 5+ years.