MRC
MRC GLOBAL INC.
stock NYSE

The if/then scenarios? Here's an example from one of my watchlists this week:
**WULF — TeraWulf**
* **Catalyst:** 20-year, \~$19B AI infrastructure lease with Anthropic at Justified Data campus (Kentucky, 401 MW, phases 2H'27–early'28). Separately selling 50.1% Abernathy JV stake to a Fluidstack-led group, monetizing \~$450M at a premium. Direct named-hyperscaler tenant roughly doubles disclosed backlog. Short float \~31.7% — squeeze fuel. Already ran to 27.55 and pulled back to \~24.
* **Technical Setup:** Overhead resistance 27 (session high). Watching 24 as the support decision — price is there now, not approaching from below. This is a live "does 24 hold or fail" question, not a wait-for-it level.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* OR breaks up AND price reclaims/holds VWAP with 24 holding as support → THEN VWAP Handoff Continuation valid, target retest of 27. Entry only after OR breaks first (OUST lesson — no handoff pre-OR-break).
* *IF* 24 fails and VWAP is lost → THEN long thesis is off; no catching the knife. Failed reclaim in a suspect complex is a disqualifier, not a dip.
* *IF* pre-OR-break → THEN session VWAP pullback only, patience regime. No chasing the gap.
**INTC — Intel (semiconductor proxy)**
* **Catalyst:** Semi/AI rebound proxy; Za notes 18A wafer-to-wafer yield fix, Oregon+Arizona \~30K wafers/month. Gapping \~+3% pre-market ($120 area on scanner).
* **Technical Setup:** 125 is the bull/bear line. Wait-and-see; open to both directions.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* holds above 125 with VWAP reclaim post-OR → THEN bullish, long as semi-complex proxy.
* *IF* rejects 125 and loses VWAP → THEN it's the tell that the whole semi bounce is failing (confirms the MU-fading read); bearish, open to short.
* *IF* chopping around 125 pre-OR → THEN no trade, let the gate set.
**AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics (optics-headwind proxy)**
* **Catalyst:** B. Riley transceiver TAM warning (AMZN RNG / OpenAI MRC as structural headwinds; AAOI/LITE/COHR). Counter-trend short-side theme.
* **Technical Setup:** Want to see it run up into the bounce and *fail* — classic Stuffed Trade / backside context.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* runs up on the AI bounce, then fails at resistance / can't hold VWAP → THEN short below VWAP, cover into support (Stuffed Trade mechanics). Structural trigger required — failed reclaim, not the analyst note alone.
* *IF* holds VWAP and trends up → THEN thesis wrong, stand aside; counter-trend short in a bouncing complex has squeeze risk.
**RDDT — Reddit (software strength name)**
* **Catalyst:** Software-strength read-through. Monster move Wednesday, inside day Thursday, now opening near prior-day high.
* **Technical Setup:** Inside-day coil opening near PDH — bullish continuation setup *if* software leads today.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* software is strong AND RDDT breaks PDH with VWAP reclaim post-OR → THEN long, inside-day breakout continuation.
* *IF* software is weak / RDDT loses VWAP → THEN no trade; the inside-day breakout needs group strength behind it.
* *IF* pre-OR-break → THEN session VWAP pullback only.

The if/then scenarios? Here's an example from one of my watchlists this week:
**WULF — TeraWulf**
* **Catalyst:** 20-year, \~$19B AI infrastructure lease with Anthropic at Justified Data campus (Kentucky, 401 MW, phases 2H'27–early'28). Separately selling 50.1% Abernathy JV stake to a Fluidstack-led group, monetizing \~$450M at a premium. Direct named-hyperscaler tenant roughly doubles disclosed backlog. Short float \~31.7% — squeeze fuel. Already ran to 27.55 and pulled back to \~24.
* **Technical Setup:** Overhead resistance 27 (session high). Watching 24 as the support decision — price is there now, not approaching from below. This is a live "does 24 hold or fail" question, not a wait-for-it level.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* OR breaks up AND price reclaims/holds VWAP with 24 holding as support → THEN VWAP Handoff Continuation valid, target retest of 27. Entry only after OR breaks first (OUST lesson — no handoff pre-OR-break).
* *IF* 24 fails and VWAP is lost → THEN long thesis is off; no catching the knife. Failed reclaim in a suspect complex is a disqualifier, not a dip.
* *IF* pre-OR-break → THEN session VWAP pullback only, patience regime. No chasing the gap.
**INTC — Intel (semiconductor proxy)**
* **Catalyst:** Semi/AI rebound proxy; Za notes 18A wafer-to-wafer yield fix, Oregon+Arizona \~30K wafers/month. Gapping \~+3% pre-market ($120 area on scanner).
* **Technical Setup:** 125 is the bull/bear line. Wait-and-see; open to both directions.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* holds above 125 with VWAP reclaim post-OR → THEN bullish, long as semi-complex proxy.
* *IF* rejects 125 and loses VWAP → THEN it's the tell that the whole semi bounce is failing (confirms the MU-fading read); bearish, open to short.
* *IF* chopping around 125 pre-OR → THEN no trade, let the gate set.
**AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics (optics-headwind proxy)**
* **Catalyst:** B. Riley transceiver TAM warning (AMZN RNG / OpenAI MRC as structural headwinds; AAOI/LITE/COHR). Counter-trend short-side theme.
* **Technical Setup:** Want to see it run up into the bounce and *fail* — classic Stuffed Trade / backside context.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* runs up on the AI bounce, then fails at resistance / can't hold VWAP → THEN short below VWAP, cover into support (Stuffed Trade mechanics). Structural trigger required — failed reclaim, not the analyst note alone.
* *IF* holds VWAP and trends up → THEN thesis wrong, stand aside; counter-trend short in a bouncing complex has squeeze risk.
**RDDT — Reddit (software strength name)**
* **Catalyst:** Software-strength read-through. Monster move Wednesday, inside day Thursday, now opening near prior-day high.
* **Technical Setup:** Inside-day coil opening near PDH — bullish continuation setup *if* software leads today.
* **Trade Plan:**
* *IF* software is strong AND RDDT breaks PDH with VWAP reclaim post-OR → THEN long, inside-day breakout continuation.
* *IF* software is weak / RDDT loses VWAP → THEN no trade; the inside-day breakout needs group strength behind it.
* *IF* pre-OR-break → THEN session VWAP pullback only.