HIGH
Simplify Enhanced Income ETF
stock NYSE ETF

**🔴**
**HIGH RISK remains — materially worse in credit + equity internals**
This **does meet the alert threshold**. The classification stays **HIGH RISK**, but deterioration is becoming broader rather than remaining a sovereign-bond story.
The clearest change since the prior check is the combination of **another credit-spread widening + a sharp worsening in U.S. market breadth**, while long Treasuries again touched new multi-decade yield highs.
**Cluster**
**Latest read**
**Change**
**U.S. sovereign / term premium**
10Y touched **5.342%**, 30Y **5.683%**, before easing to \~5.28% / 5.63%. The 2Y is nearer **4.87%**, so the long end is steepening away from policy rates.
🔴 Still extreme
**Treasury auctions / issuance**
No new coupon auction today. Recent weak 5Y/7Y sequence remains unresolved. Treasury has a **$6B 10–20Y liquidity buyback later today**.
🔴 Active, no new failure yet
**Japan**
20Y \~**3.95–3.97%**, 30Y \~**4.19–4.20%**, 40Y \~**4.21–4.22%**; USD/JPY \~**158.1**.
🔴 Rates worse, but no carry unwind
**Funding plumbing**
Sep. 30 SOFR printed **3.90%**, essentially equal to IORB. I find no fresh verified repo/basis/cross-currency dislocation in this run.
🟢 Firebreak holding
**Credit**
HY OAS **308 → 312 bp**; CCC **1,157 → 1,179 bp**; IG remains **84 bp**.
🔴 **Worse again**
**Vol / equity internals**
NYSE: roughly **325 new lows vs 9 highs**; Nasdaq: **443 lows vs 54 highs**. VIX \~**16.3** and futures remain in contango.
🔴 **Materially worse breadth**
**Oil / macro**
Brent around **$98–99** after the prior >$100 spike.
🟢 Still below danger zone
**Monetary confidence**
Gold roughly **$4,150–4,200** while the dollar is firm/stronger.
🟢 Gold↑ + real yields↑ + USD↓ trigger absent
**Fiscal / liquidity**
Large issuance/TGA and weak long-duration appetite remain structural pressure; no fresh refunding change today.
🟠 Background
**What changed**
Credit has continued to transmit the rates shock. ICE/BofA’s latest September 30 readings show **HY OAS at 312 bp**, up from **308**, and **CCC at 1,179 bp**, up **22 bp in one session** and from **1,112 bp on September 24**. IG is unchanged at 84 bp.
More importantly, equity internals deteriorated significantly intraday. Roughly **325 NYSE stocks are making 52-week lows versus only nine highs**, while Nasdaq is around **443 lows versus 54 highs**. New lows have now exceeded highs for more than three weeks on both exchanges. This is meaningfully worse than the previous check and shows the rate/credit pressure spreading beneath the headline indexes.
Treasuries again tested fresh extremes: the 10Y reached **5.342%** and the 30Y **5.683%**, before buyers appeared and yields retreated somewhat. The important structural point remains that the long end is staying exceptionally high even after softer inflation data reduced near-term Fed-hike odds—consistent with fiscal/term-premium and duration-supply pressure rather than simply the expected Fed path.
Japan is also back near its super-long extremes: current indications put the 20Y near **3.97%**, 30Y around **4.20%**, and 40Y around **4.21%**. But USD/JPY near **158** means the yen is weakening, not surging; therefore Japanese repatriation/carry liquidation is **still not occurring**.
Two major systemic firebreaks still hold. First, the September 30 SOFR fixing was **3.90%**, versus approximately **3.90% IORB**, so quarter-end repo pricing did not show a broad scarcity event. Second, VIX is only around **16**, with October and November futures roughly **17.7 and 18.4**, leaving the curve in contango rather than backwardation.
Oil has also backed away: Brent is near **$98–99**, well below your **$115–120** macro-shock threshold. That prevents the energy/inflation channel from becoming the sixth active cluster for now.
**Current transmission path**
The chain is now:
**global term-premium / fiscal stress → long Treasury & JGB yields ↑ → financing costs ↑ → CCC/HY spreads widen → broad equity participation collapses**
The missing systemic step remains:
**repo/basis stress → volatility backwardation → forced deleveraging → yen carry unwind.**
So I still count **5 independent active clusters**:
**sovereign duration + Treasury absorption + Japan + credit + equity internals = HIGH RISK.**
A move to **CRITICAL** would now require a sixth channel—most credibly **HY accelerating through \~325–350 bp**, VIX **>25 with backwardation**, persistent SOFR > IORB / meaningful SRF usage, clear Treasury-market funding dysfunction, Brent surging back toward **$115+**, or USD/JPY collapsing toward **153–150**.
**Bottom line:** **HIGH RISK remains, but the setup has materially worsened because credit and breadth are now deteriorating together while long sovereign yields remain at extreme levels. Funding and volatility are still preventing this from becoming a full systemic-dislocation signal.**

You have to remember that a lot of the folks around here are HIGH STRUNG because they just spent another full week LOSING MONEY

# Thursday delivered Fearless' downside objective, and then reversed dramatically. The DJIA fell to 50,546.54, but recovered roughly 381 points to close 50,927.33, slightly positive.
# Forecast Statistics
**Bucket:** Downside Exhaustion / Recovery Test
**Volatility Score:** ≈ **1.72, VERY HIGH**
**Probabilities:** SU 20% | LU 33% | SD 30% | LD 17%
**Expected Return:** ≈ +0.02%
**Projected Close:** 50,750–51,150
**Directional Bias:** 53% Up / 47% Down
Previous Close: **50,927.33**
**RECAP:** Thursday's **63% Down / EXIT** forecast: The critical 50,850 trigger broke, the 50,650–50,750 objective was reached, and the decline extended to 50,546. The important late development was the reversal: sellers could not retain a decline of nearly 360 points and the DJIA recovered to finish slightly higher.
**Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.**
# Fearless Opines: Thursday produced the clearest exhaustion evidence of the decline. The DJIA has now tested substantially below 50,650 and rejected those prices. But a 381-point recovery is not yet a trend reversal: buyers still have to reclaim the resistance that broke during the selloff. Friday therefore shifts from downside expansion to a recovery test, with almost no directional advantage.
# Key Levels
**Bull Hold:** **50,850**
**Recovery:** **51,000**
**REDUCE:** **51,125**
**GO:** **51,200**
**Warning:** **50,750**
**EXIT:** **50,650**
**Major Failure:** **50,545**
**Downside Objective:** **50,350–50,450**
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. The late reversal is strong enough to move Fearless out of EXIT, but not into GO. For Friday, 50,850–51,125 is the proving ground. Holding 50,850 preserves the recovery attempt; reclaiming 51,000 strengthens it, while 51,125–51,200 would signal more substantial repair. Below 50,750, the recovery begins failing; below 50,650 returns Fearless to EXIT.
# Trader Takeaway: Don't chase Thursday's rebound any more than it made sense to chase Thursday morning's collapse. 51,000 is the first buyer test; 50,750 is the seller test. Let the DJIA show which side actually retained Thursday's reversal.
# FEARLESS READ: 53% Up. Thursday's bears won the morning and lost most of it back by the close. Friday belongs to neither side yet: buyers now have to turn a spectacular rescue into a sustained recovery.

“Brothers and sisters, please open your brokerage apps to Page 500 of the Book of SPY.”
“And the market dipped 3%, and the people became afraid.”
“But Reverend Bearhunter said unto them: Fear not the red candle.”
“For I have purchased the dip.” 📈🙏🏾
Congregation: “AMEN!”
Reverend Bearhunter: “Can I get an ALL-TIME HIGH?”
Congregation: “ALL-TIME HIIIIIGH!” 🐂🙌🏾
Bear walks into the church:
“I have come to short—”
Reverend Bearhunter:
“BEGONE, BER.” ✋🏾🐻

Buy it up up up, buy it up up up, but it up up up
OVER NIGHT HIGH

Tiananmen Square copypasta but American
NSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA'S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D'ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE GOOK RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳（Eric Garner）逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE DANNY CHEN PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE'S TEMPEL PARENT'S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUTNSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA'S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D'ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE GOOK RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳（Eric Garner）逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE'S TEMPEL PARENT'S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUT

HIGH BETA STOCKS GOING CRAZY

I stopped caring about that so long ago that I can't even remember the main players or tickers of the main weed stocks.

Maybe WED, MJ, BLNT, HIGH? Seriously, no clue.

**🔴**
**HIGH RISK remains — materially worse in credit + equity internals**
This **does meet the alert threshold**. The classification stays **HIGH RISK**, but deterioration is becoming broader rather than remaining a sovereign-bond story.
The clearest change since the prior check is the combination of **another credit-spread widening + a sharp worsening in U.S. market breadth**, while long Treasuries again touched new multi-decade yield highs.
**Cluster**
**Latest read**
**Change**
**U.S. sovereign / term premium**
10Y touched **5.342%**, 30Y **5.683%**, before easing to \~5.28% / 5.63%. The 2Y is nearer **4.87%**, so the long end is steepening away from policy rates.
🔴 Still extreme
**Treasury auctions / issuance**
No new coupon auction today. Recent weak 5Y/7Y sequence remains unresolved. Treasury has a **$6B 10–20Y liquidity buyback later today**.
🔴 Active, no new failure yet
**Japan**
20Y \~**3.95–3.97%**, 30Y \~**4.19–4.20%**, 40Y \~**4.21–4.22%**; USD/JPY \~**158.1**.
🔴 Rates worse, but no carry unwind
**Funding plumbing**
Sep. 30 SOFR printed **3.90%**, essentially equal to IORB. I find no fresh verified repo/basis/cross-currency dislocation in this run.
🟢 Firebreak holding
**Credit**
HY OAS **308 → 312 bp**; CCC **1,157 → 1,179 bp**; IG remains **84 bp**.
🔴 **Worse again**
**Vol / equity internals**
NYSE: roughly **325 new lows vs 9 highs**; Nasdaq: **443 lows vs 54 highs**. VIX \~**16.3** and futures remain in contango.
🔴 **Materially worse breadth**
**Oil / macro**
Brent around **$98–99** after the prior >$100 spike.
🟢 Still below danger zone
**Monetary confidence**
Gold roughly **$4,150–4,200** while the dollar is firm/stronger.
🟢 Gold↑ + real yields↑ + USD↓ trigger absent
**Fiscal / liquidity**
Large issuance/TGA and weak long-duration appetite remain structural pressure; no fresh refunding change today.
🟠 Background
**What changed**
Credit has continued to transmit the rates shock. ICE/BofA’s latest September 30 readings show **HY OAS at 312 bp**, up from **308**, and **CCC at 1,179 bp**, up **22 bp in one session** and from **1,112 bp on September 24**. IG is unchanged at 84 bp.
More importantly, equity internals deteriorated significantly intraday. Roughly **325 NYSE stocks are making 52-week lows versus only nine highs**, while Nasdaq is around **443 lows versus 54 highs**. New lows have now exceeded highs for more than three weeks on both exchanges. This is meaningfully worse than the previous check and shows the rate/credit pressure spreading beneath the headline indexes.
Treasuries again tested fresh extremes: the 10Y reached **5.342%** and the 30Y **5.683%**, before buyers appeared and yields retreated somewhat. The important structural point remains that the long end is staying exceptionally high even after softer inflation data reduced near-term Fed-hike odds—consistent with fiscal/term-premium and duration-supply pressure rather than simply the expected Fed path.
Japan is also back near its super-long extremes: current indications put the 20Y near **3.97%**, 30Y around **4.20%**, and 40Y around **4.21%**. But USD/JPY near **158** means the yen is weakening, not surging; therefore Japanese repatriation/carry liquidation is **still not occurring**.
Two major systemic firebreaks still hold. First, the September 30 SOFR fixing was **3.90%**, versus approximately **3.90% IORB**, so quarter-end repo pricing did not show a broad scarcity event. Second, VIX is only around **16**, with October and November futures roughly **17.7 and 18.4**, leaving the curve in contango rather than backwardation.
Oil has also backed away: Brent is near **$98–99**, well below your **$115–120** macro-shock threshold. That prevents the energy/inflation channel from becoming the sixth active cluster for now.
**Current transmission path**
The chain is now:
**global term-premium / fiscal stress → long Treasury & JGB yields ↑ → financing costs ↑ → CCC/HY spreads widen → broad equity participation collapses**
The missing systemic step remains:
**repo/basis stress → volatility backwardation → forced deleveraging → yen carry unwind.**
So I still count **5 independent active clusters**:
**sovereign duration + Treasury absorption + Japan + credit + equity internals = HIGH RISK.**
A move to **CRITICAL** would now require a sixth channel—most credibly **HY accelerating through \~325–350 bp**, VIX **>25 with backwardation**, persistent SOFR > IORB / meaningful SRF usage, clear Treasury-market funding dysfunction, Brent surging back toward **$115+**, or USD/JPY collapsing toward **153–150**.
**Bottom line:** **HIGH RISK remains, but the setup has materially worsened because credit and breadth are now deteriorating together while long sovereign yields remain at extreme levels. Funding and volatility are still preventing this from becoming a full systemic-dislocation signal.**

You have to remember that a lot of the folks around here are HIGH STRUNG because they just spent another full week LOSING MONEY

# Thursday delivered Fearless' downside objective, and then reversed dramatically. The DJIA fell to 50,546.54, but recovered roughly 381 points to close 50,927.33, slightly positive.
# Forecast Statistics
**Bucket:** Downside Exhaustion / Recovery Test
**Volatility Score:** ≈ **1.72, VERY HIGH**
**Probabilities:** SU 20% | LU 33% | SD 30% | LD 17%
**Expected Return:** ≈ +0.02%
**Projected Close:** 50,750–51,150
**Directional Bias:** 53% Up / 47% Down
Previous Close: **50,927.33**
**RECAP:** Thursday's **63% Down / EXIT** forecast: The critical 50,850 trigger broke, the 50,650–50,750 objective was reached, and the decline extended to 50,546. The important late development was the reversal: sellers could not retain a decline of nearly 360 points and the DJIA recovered to finish slightly higher.
**Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.**
# Fearless Opines: Thursday produced the clearest exhaustion evidence of the decline. The DJIA has now tested substantially below 50,650 and rejected those prices. But a 381-point recovery is not yet a trend reversal: buyers still have to reclaim the resistance that broke during the selloff. Friday therefore shifts from downside expansion to a recovery test, with almost no directional advantage.
# Key Levels
**Bull Hold:** **50,850**
**Recovery:** **51,000**
**REDUCE:** **51,125**
**GO:** **51,200**
**Warning:** **50,750**
**EXIT:** **50,650**
**Major Failure:** **50,545**
**Downside Objective:** **50,350–50,450**
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. The late reversal is strong enough to move Fearless out of EXIT, but not into GO. For Friday, 50,850–51,125 is the proving ground. Holding 50,850 preserves the recovery attempt; reclaiming 51,000 strengthens it, while 51,125–51,200 would signal more substantial repair. Below 50,750, the recovery begins failing; below 50,650 returns Fearless to EXIT.
# Trader Takeaway: Don't chase Thursday's rebound any more than it made sense to chase Thursday morning's collapse. 51,000 is the first buyer test; 50,750 is the seller test. Let the DJIA show which side actually retained Thursday's reversal.
# FEARLESS READ: 53% Up. Thursday's bears won the morning and lost most of it back by the close. Friday belongs to neither side yet: buyers now have to turn a spectacular rescue into a sustained recovery.

“Brothers and sisters, please open your brokerage apps to Page 500 of the Book of SPY.”
“And the market dipped 3%, and the people became afraid.”
“But Reverend Bearhunter said unto them: Fear not the red candle.”
“For I have purchased the dip.” 📈🙏🏾
Congregation: “AMEN!”
Reverend Bearhunter: “Can I get an ALL-TIME HIGH?”
Congregation: “ALL-TIME HIIIIIGH!” 🐂🙌🏾
Bear walks into the church:
“I have come to short—”
Reverend Bearhunter:
“BEGONE, BER.” ✋🏾🐻

Buy it up up up, buy it up up up, but it up up up
OVER NIGHT HIGH

Tiananmen Square copypasta but American
NSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA'S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D'ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE GOOK RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳（Eric Garner）逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE DANNY CHEN PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE'S TEMPEL PARENT'S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUTNSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA'S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D'ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE GOOK RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳（Eric Garner）逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE'S TEMPEL PARENT'S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUT

HIGH BETA STOCKS GOING CRAZY

I stopped caring about that so long ago that I can't even remember the main players or tickers of the main weed stocks.

Maybe WED, MJ, BLNT, HIGH? Seriously, no clue.

FED’S COOK: INFLATION HAS BEEN TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG

Tweet Mirror:[DeItaone](https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/2105378891347186062)
>FED’S COOK: INFLATION HAS BEEN TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG
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>Fed Governor Lisa Cook says she remains committed to bringing inflation back to target while preserving labor\-market strength\.
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>Cook did not comment directly on today’s softer inflation data or the October rate decision\.
>
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>Her remarks come as mar…

HERE IS HOW HIGH BOND YIELDS ARE GOOD FOR THE MARKET

Exhibit A (2:08:38)
For context, this was back in 2023 in which Larry was invited by Pulte and entire PP Show (idiots except for Jake2B and Sal) with regards to bed and beyond (which now has become DK-Butterfly). If you click on the bit (link), at the time, people were energetic and very hopeful, so why was Larry there in the 1st place? Did Ryan send him!?
[https://www.youtube.com/live/9GCGn\_STx-o?si=p9-TpDmHyXaQ1auo&t=7718](https://www.youtube.com/live/9GCGn_STx-o?si=p9-TpDmHyXaQ1auo&t=7718)

3 VERY Long years have gone since and nothing came of it (some stuff unearthing sure), but my suspicion with the recent livestream Larry did was likely an attempt to either pacify (calm down) an entire following of investors (which is exactly what he did in 2023) and/or stall for EVEN MORE TIME!
I do not believe Larry's sudden livestream was done under the presumption of good faith. I am not directly accusing the guy of anything (frankly don't care about him as an investor), but all I can say is that whether Ryan sent Larry again to calm the storm down (many frustrated investors), I have a suspicion that things will very likely get delayed again (just like it did back in 2023).
In essence, there's a very HIGH likely hood that the GME warrants WILL BE EXTENDED which could be for another year or maybe half (I am not sure), but one thing I do know is that Larry doing a livestream is ANYTHING BUT good news.
I REALLY REALLY REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG, but if time has proven anything when Larry "shows up" all of a sudden, I don't think or assume it's a good thing. Hence, get ready because in the coming weeks there will be announcements, but warrants will be extended and Ryan will continue buying more which means no REAL announcements or anything happening anytime soon.
And people sucking up to Larry or Ryan at this stage without any real corporate action leaves a lot to be desired.
TLDR: Don't fall for it! Expect this to be delayed even longer. Again, I'd rather be wrong that right.