FLKR
Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF
stock NYSE ETF

> the federal workforce being cut in half,
Not happening except at a few agencies. It's estimated that if all planned cuts are made, it's about a 5% reduction in federal workforce. But this is assuming that the moves aren't blocked under the impoundment control act.
>let's add in lower government spending,
Isn't really happening at a large scale. You have a few agencies that got cut hard like USAID, but we're looking at totals of just a few billion.
>let's add in tax breaks for a small sliver of people who instead of giving it to the millions of people who actually spend money.
Not going to engage in political discussion because it violates the subreddit rules.
>Yes, I know - everyone knows - there are multiple variables at play. It's not an easy straight forward call of course, but if you add up everything that is going on, are you net negative or net positive on the 1 year, 3 year and 5 year outlook for the market?
Can't give short term outlook because it depends more on sentiment than fundamentals. But I am positive for the 10-20 year outlook. I don't think we'll see the 10%+ returns people are accustomed to, but I think 4-5% returns are likely for US stocks.
I am heavily invested in Korea though. As of December 2024 I moved a lot of my money to FLKR/EWY. They are going to absolutely eat up US market share in global trade. How are Ford, GM, etc supposed to compete with Kia/Hyundai when they have to pay 25% more for Steel/Aluminum, and parts, while Korea just uses domestic steel? Or how does Whirlpool compete with Samsung?
Canada, Europe, etc will be depending a lot more on Korea. And when most of their companies are trading below book value, there is insane money to be made.

> the federal workforce being cut in half,
Not happening except at a few agencies. It's estimated that if all planned cuts are made, it's about a 5% reduction in federal workforce. But this is assuming that the moves aren't blocked under the impoundment control act.
>let's add in lower government spending,
Isn't really happening at a large scale. You have a few agencies that got cut hard like USAID, but we're looking at totals of just a few billion.
>let's add in tax breaks for a small sliver of people who instead of giving it to the millions of people who actually spend money.
Not going to engage in political discussion because it violates the subreddit rules.
>Yes, I know - everyone knows - there are multiple variables at play. It's not an easy straight forward call of course, but if you add up everything that is going on, are you net negative or net positive on the 1 year, 3 year and 5 year outlook for the market?
Can't give short term outlook because it depends more on sentiment than fundamentals. But I am positive for the 10-20 year outlook. I don't think we'll see the 10%+ returns people are accustomed to, but I think 4-5% returns are likely for US stocks.
I am heavily invested in Korea though. As of December 2024 I moved a lot of my money to FLKR/EWY. They are going to absolutely eat up US market share in global trade. How are Ford, GM, etc supposed to compete with Kia/Hyundai when they have to pay 25% more for Steel/Aluminum, and parts, while Korea just uses domestic steel? Or how does Whirlpool compete with Samsung?
Canada, Europe, etc will be depending a lot more on Korea. And when most of their companies are trading below book value, there is insane money to be made.