FCF
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation
stock NYSE

Memory stocks got absolutely smoked today and then I saw this.
SK Hynix is planning to buy back and cancel almost $29B worth of its own shares.
$29 billion.
They’re also saying more than half of cumulative FCF from 2025-27 is going back to shareholders.
I knew they were printing money from the memory boom but I didn’t expect a buyback anywhere near this big lol.
Especially after the stock just got whacked almost 10% in a day.
Whatever you think about memory being in a bubble or not, management clearly isn’t acting like they’re worried about running out of cash anytime soon.

Meta recently reported cash flow 0.5B, which makes FCF to enterprise value \~4000. Your number is wrong.

Quantitative Valuation of Coupang ($CPNG)
*(i watched my investment in Coupang fall from a +30% to a present near -40%. All in less than a year due to a major data breach. anyway, this post isn't about the why or the how. The purpose of this post is how to think about valuation.)*
Coupang Inc. FY End December. This report: Q2-FY2026. Today: 19th August 2026
a. SP: $15.5 Market Cap: 28bn Revenue 35.46bn
b. TTM EPS (Diluted) -0.42, (ADJ): -0.20, (Zack's): -0.20
c. yield -, (5 year average) - , (Buy Back Yield): 3.90%
d. ROA, ROE, ROIC: -, -, -
e. P/E (trailing): , P/E (5YA): -, P/E (FWD): -
f. Debt/Equity: 1.89 Net Debt / EBITDA (5.63 - 6.11) / -EBITDA < 0
g. FCF Conversion: ttm: -0.13, 2025-> 2.51, 6.54, 1.29 <-2023
h. Growth (past) Stated:
|Revenue %|06/30/2026|
|:-|:-|
||
|Year Over Year|3.89|
|3 Year Average|14.90|
|5 Year Average|14.61|
|10 Year Average|—|
i. Manual calculation: none
j. management guidance:
Q3-FY2026 (next quarter) in constant currency at 8-9% revenue growth.
Product commerce will recover by mid 2027 back to 2025 pre-data breach levels
k. Valuation approach.
I am not going to use DCF or Earnings or Cash based numbers to do the valuation. The reason is because they were only recently profitable, and becasue of data breach, they won't be profitable until 2027.
I will use a a price/sales approach instead, as it is more stable. This is not dissimilar to Amazon com which CPNG is loosely based on, and after six years after IPO was Amazon finally GAAP profitable.
(i) First i will try and figure out what is the sales that we can expect at the end of 2030. (ii) Then I will work out how are the peers currently priced at, in terms of P/S, on a present and 5 year average basis. (iii) Lastly, i will apply the group p/s to the 2030 Revenue to derive the 2030 implied share price. (iv) Based on this, i will work out the rate of return back to the present price.
(i) estimating sales by 2030
|Various|2029est|2030est|CAGR|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|SA|\-|48.64bn|7.09%|
|MSNR|\-|49.89bn|7.64%|
|DCF|46.77bn|\-|7.88%|
|Eulerpool|48.75bn|\-|9%|
|VV. io||55.4bn|10%|
I will use a 8% CAGR revenue growth off 2025's 34.53bn for the next 5 years.
(1.08) \^ 5 x 34.53 = 50.7359 bn
**(ii) Calculating peer group P/S**
|Company|Current P/S|Average 5 year P/S|
|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Coupang|0.81|1.40|
|Amazon|~~3.64~~|2.97|
|Naver (Korea)|2.60|3.43|
|Alibaba|2.17|1.96|
|PDD|2.08|4.07|
|Mercadolibre|2.56|~~5.13~~|
|SEA Ltd|2.67|3.35|
I reject the obvious outlier the present e-commerce peer group are all hovering around a P/S of 2+ except for amazon and coupang. And their 5 year average were around 2+ to 4.
|Peer Group|P/S|5 year P/s|
|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Peer Group Averages|2.4|3.15|
(iii) To calculate the implied share price in 2030. We have to find out the revenue / share. We already have the revenue, we need to figure out how much is the shares outstanding likely to be by 2030. A quick search shows that although management is buying back shares, it is still diluting at about 1-1.5% a year.
Applying the maths, we get 1.837bn x (1.015)\^5 = 1.979bn shares outstanding in 2030.
This works out to 50.73bn / 1.979 Revenue per share by end 2030 or $25.63 revenue per share.
|Implied Share Price |Average P/S|Average 5 year P/s|
|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Peer group|2.4|3.15|
|Coupang Sales / SH|25.63|25.63|
|Coupang Implied Share price End 2030|$61.51|$80.8|
**(iv) Calculating Rate of Return**
Recent share price is 15.50
Implied 2030 price is $61.51 to $80.8
Rate of Return = 31.74% to 39% CAGR
**Comments**: I like to do this sort of simple valuation first, so that when i read up on the business later, i can ask myself the key questions: (1) how confident i am that management can recover from the issues, and the business can continue the growth trajectory. How confident am i of the 8% Revenue growth, whereas Morningstar is only projecting 6% revennue growth with a fair value of $25.80. (2) What do the superinvestors see in CPNG, that they are recently buying/adding ? (3) [Lastly, in 2024, the average P/S of the peer group was around 4, ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1ou64on/a_quick_and_dirty_method_of_valuing_coupang_cpng/)and now it is 2+, it is cheap now and will revert to mean at 4 or is this re-rating of e-commerce websites the new normal ? Will they be rated below 2 in the future ?

For regards saying sk buyback news doesn't matter: sk made more profits in one quarter this year than all of Muskrats grift companies ever made in their entire lifetime. They can actually afford to buy up a significant portion of their float on FCF alone.

what I love about this is that there is no new news specific to MU or SNDK, we already knew they were going to return their FCF to their shareholders, yet it still causes this massive pump.

SK Hynix will acquire treasury shares worth 40 trillion Korean won and cancel them entirely. Additionally, it plans to allocate over 50% of cumulative free cash flow (FCF) to shareholder returns by next year.

SK Hynix commits to returning 50%+ of FCF to shareholders — via buybacks, share cancellations, and dividends

One thing that nags at me: the denominator is today's price, so Y220 is really a yield-on-cost number. If FCF compounds anywhere near the way the screen assumes, the multiple almost never sits still, so you'd get paid through the re-rating years before that 20% ever shows up on the tape. That makes it more of a growth-durability ranking than a payback clock, which is still useful, just a different thing. Does the ordering shift much if you swap revenue CAGR for FCF CAGR on the names where margins are still moving?

Most ETFs are tracking an index because that's the easiest way to function. I'd venture to guess mist people don't hold an ETF that doesn't track an index. Most that don't are actively managed since it's hard to passively not track an index.
I have FOXY as my only non-index ETF.
I do have others that track an index but not the broad indexes.
Among those, FLOW is my favorite because I'm a big believer in FCF. But again, it does follow an index, just not one most people are likely as familiar with as, like, SPY or VT or QQQ.

“Shady accounting”
Nothing shady about it.
FCF is down because capex is up. These are companies that have classically been asset-light being forced into massive asset purchases.
Of course FCF is down.

nah. I'll preface this by saying, I'm a professional analyst and I actually own meta.
Earnings really isn't the story. What accrues to shareholders is FCF. that's essentially cash flows less capex . The company's capex has exploded and now FCF is 0 and going negative. This means that.. nothing is accruing to shareholders at the moment.
They're obviously not the only ones. Other hyperscalers are doing this as well. But META's shareholder structure is the most fucked out of all hyperscalers, in that Zuck has supervoting shares. That means that he could, if he wanted to, literally set money on fire.

The London Stock Exchange, at first glance, seems to be just an exchange. However, its business has undergone significant changes after the acquisition of Refinitiv. The current LSEG exchange now contributes a relatively small portion of the revenue. Instead, more of its business models involve financial data services and subscription platforms, as well as index issuance and licensing fees. The current LSEG has a business model more akin to the combination of Bloomberg and SPGI (the part related to SPGI index issuance), with extremely light assets. Additionally, LSEG is collaborating with Microsoft to integrate AI-related aspects. Looking at the valuation, the FCF yield of the current LSEG is approximately 6%, which is not very high for a company with a continuously growing FCF.

Meta FWD PE today is at 16x. If we were to exclude loss from Metaverse money pit - stock is actually at 13-14x FWD PE.
META did 30% top line growth YoY. On Rev base of >200B.
Meanwhile you have speculative junk company like TTD trading at FWD PE of 16-18x. That's after the 70% collapse YTD for this stock. TTD grew sales 3% YoY on tiny rev base and their guidance is revenue decrease of 10-12% YoY for next quarter. And their SBC is almost 50% of their FCF. Lol. This is a company getting crushed by competition (from Amazon) and may not exist 5 yrs from now... and it is priced higher than Meta, a monopoly with top tier top line growth and moat as wide as pacific ocean.
So, today Meta is priced like a speculative junk stock. Wtf?

Yes, they speak to the past.
I'm speaking to the $100s of billions they're risking on the future, in a radical departure from the core competencies that built those numbers, in the past.
Trusting Zuck to wisely innovate with the entire FCF for a few years is a haaaard no for me.

$26B market cap, 0.1B revenue; -2B FCF; surly it should double in 1.5 year. It's not like they have any competition in the market. what could go wrong?

I have. But everything I’ve read for the negatives, don’t line up with what RDDT has been consistently delivering.
Even if their growth dropped in half, and they didn’t renew their AI deals, the stock is fairly valued for that scenario right now based on their current multiples.
10% of their market cap in cash, printing FCF, no capex, high revenue and earnings growth, user expansion (mostly international at the moment).
I keep double checking to see if I’m missing anything, but everything I’ve seen points to things continuing to go well for the company. The stock price seems to be disconnected from that at the moment.

ROIC and FCF debate plays out every single day

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FCF is what actually accrues to shareholders. Why's it the "wrong number"?

You just gotta look at FCF