ET
Energy Transfer LP Common Units
stockNYSE

I've been keeping notes on what actually explains a sudden move, using only what's officially filed: SEC filings from the last day or two and the exchange halt list. (I use an AI assistant to pull and translate them so I don't have to dig through EDGAR every time.) A few lessons from this week: \*\*1. Don't trust the 8-K item numbers alone.\*\* One small cap was halted at 7:25 ET and reopened at 7:50. The 8-K landed at 7:32 with items 1.01 + 2.03 + 3.02: material agreement, new debt, unregistered share sale. I read that as "financing, dilution incoming." The press release attached to the filing (Exhibit 99.1) said they were selling a business unit at a premium. Always read the headline in the exhibit before deciding what the codes mean. \*\*2. Most "insider activity" is noise.\*\* Form 4s are mostly stock grants, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes. The only ones I care about now are open-market buys (code P) and sales (code S). This week one well-known name had the CEO buying \~844K shares around $27 with his own money. That got buried under a CFO sale and a 144 notice in the same few days. \*\*3. Know which halt you're looking at.\*\* \- LUDP / M: volatility pause, usually 5 minutes \- T1: news pending; T3: news out, resume times set \- T12: exchange wants more info. Can last days or weeks. \- H10 / H11: SEC suspension or regulatory concern. Don't expect a quick reopen. One name has been sitting on a T1 since Monday; its last filing was titled "update on its CEO and operations." That one line told me more than the chart did. \*\*4. "Nothing filed" is an answer too.\*\* A big name I watched had only a routine exec sale all week. If it moves, it's sector, macro or a newswire release, not a filing. \*\*5. Dilution filings I flag first in small caps:\*\* \- 424B prospectus supplement (shares being sold now) \- S-3 shelf (they can sell later) \- EFFECT notice (a registration just went live) \- 8-K item 3.02 (unregistered share sale) What I haven't solved: plenty of small caps put out press releases on the wires before anything hits EDGAR, and I haven't found a good free way to catch those early. Questions for the sub: 1. When a watchlist name moves 10%+, what do you check first? 2. Do you ignore insider sales because of 10b5-1 plans, or only care when they're big? 3. Small caps: which dilution signal do you weigh most? Open ATM, warrants near the price, or a fresh S-3? 4. Any free source that catches press releases before EDGAR?

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $700.00 (below) | $750.30 | $775.66 | -6.7% | Fri 3:23 PM ET | | **Record** | 0W - 5L | 0% | - | - | - |

I'm pounding cawfee, estimating a 10AM ET girthy fucker. Probably a 4-5 wiper, might have to just jump in the shower. I'll let everyone know.

2nd poop of the day (ET zone)

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Hi there, hopping in. I see the problem followed you. One last troubleshooting step I'd suggest is to try the mobile app. To add a bank using it, after logging in, tap the green button with the dollar sign, then "Transfer." On the "Transfer" page, tap "Link a bank or recipient" in the bottom section of the page. If you are unable to add a bank successfully, please get in touch with our technical support team to troubleshoot further. They are here on Monday-Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. [Contact us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MU** ▼ | $900.00 (below) | $951.97 | $951.97 | -5.5% | Fri 4:07 AM ET |

Before investing it's better to spend few months to read, research and understand the basics of personal finance else you may burn your hard earned money 🔥 There are amazing Personal finance resources available online to understand the basics of Insurance, Investment, Banking etc and you may start with any of the following: * Value Research Online * Morningstar India * ET Wealth * FreeFinCal etc. No hard feelings, as this is how we all have learnt the things. The rest, your call.

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MU** | $900.00 (below) | $951.97 | -5.5% | Fri 4:07 AM ET |

Yep, expired and voided just means it expired worthless. You keep the premium and the shares, and nothing got called away. Once the old call is gone from your positions you can sell a new one against the same shares, no waiting needed. Only thing I’d check is that the short call isn’t showing in your positions anymore, and that you still have the full 100 shares per contract. If both look right, you’re good. Edge case worth knowing: if it closed really close to your strike, the holder has until about 5:30 pm ET to submit exercise instructions, so an after-hours move can still get you assigned even if it closed OTM. Assignment gets processed overnight, so just check that you still hold the shares before selling the next call. If it closed well clear of the strike, don’t sweat it.

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 5W - 7L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $793.57 (above) | $778.01 | +2.0% | Thu 11:12 PM ET |

**📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)** **8:30 AM** | Core CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3% **8:30 AM** | Core CPI y/y | Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.4% **8:30 AM** | CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4% **8:30 AM** | CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.4% ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #CPI #Inflation

**🔴 OIL SECURITY ALERT — Iran Expands Shipping Threat Beyond Hormuz** **October 13, 2026 | 9:35 p.m. ET | Risk: HIGH** **Material new development:** A Reuters investigation published at 8:06 p.m. ET reveals that Iran has adopted a coordinated strategy to intensify attacks on commercial shipping and expand operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz. **🚨 1. Iranian officials reveal expanded maritime strategy** Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran intends to sustain pressure on global oil prices through the November U.S. elections. **New findings:** Iranian operations are expanding toward the Gulf of Oman and waters near Qatar and the UAE. Maritime-security analysis indicates attacks may already be occurring across this wider area. A U.S. military official independently confirmed that Iran has begun using small boats as surveillance platforms to identify maritime targets. Reuters reports at least five maritime incidents in the preceding 48 hours, although these overlap previously reported attacks. One Iranian official warned that a more comprehensive closure of Hormuz could follow. **Verification:** The tactical change is corroborated by a U.S. military source. Iranian strategic intentions come from anonymous Iranian officials and are not independently established. No complete closure has been confirmed. **🛢️ 2. Physical supply implication**s **Affected infrastructure:** Maritime export logistics and tanker transportation. **New confirmed production outage:** None. **New confirmed refining outage:** None. **Barrels per day disrupted:** Not quantified. **Expected duration:** Unknown. The geographical expansion matters because vessels avoiding Hormuz could encounter security threats on alternative routes. **📈 3. Brent and WTI rise in Wednesday trading** Reuters quotations at **8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday**, corresponding to Wednesday morning in Asia: **Benchmark** **Price** **Change** Brent **$106.58** \+0.8% WTI **$94.94** \+0.9% Brent–WTI spread **$11.64** — Both benchmarks advanced as traders weighed Middle Eastern supply risks against expectations of additional Russian diesel exports. These are intraday quotations, not settlements. **📊 Trading implications** **Market** **Assessment** **Brent** 🔴 Bullish risk from expanded maritime threats **WTI** 🟠 Supported by international supply uncertainty **Inflation** 🔴 Potential for persistently elevated fuel and freight costs **Treasury yields** 🟠 Inflation pressure versus safe-haven demand **Equities** 🔴 Increased downside risk for transportation and rate-sensitive technology **Bottom line** **The significant change is evidence of a deliberate expansion in Iran’s maritime targeting strategy—not merely another isolated tanker attack.** No additional independently confirmed Saudi crude-production outage, Russian refinery shutdown or Ukrainian petroleum-infrastructure loss was established in this check. **Overall assessment: 🔴 HIGH shipping risk. New physical supply losses remain unquantified.** Source: Reuters — Iran shifting tactics to step up shipping attacks, October 14⁠

Not actually a stock. But Could do a lot worse than ET. $100k be paying about $8k a year. It’s going to $28-$32 by 2030, with reinvested dividends, probably be paying about $20k a year by then. Not bad.

For QQQ every day at 11 AM ET I buy 1 long call with a profit target of 50% and stop loss of 20%.

Wow, I actually commend you for backing your claims, you still drink the kool-aide, but at least you're honest about it. My main two holdings are VOO and VTI, so you already know both of those are green. My other two are funsies for dividends, ET and STWD, last I checked ET was green, but STWD was red, but that's okay because I only hold to snowball their dividends. Again, kudos for posting proof, I mean that.

Wednesday, Oct 14 has one macro event that matters, the September CPI at 8:30 ET \[2\]\[7\]. It comes with a heavy pre-market earnings slate: ASML, BAC, MS, BLK, State Street and Progressive, plus Fastenal per one preview \[1\]\[4\]\[13\]. Fed speakers are on the calendar too, and PPI and retail sales follow Thursday \[3\]\[6\]. The Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% in September, so a hot print matters more than usual \[13\]. **1. Catalysts** * **CPI:** Consensus is headline about +0.56–0.59% m/m, taking y/y to about 3.6–3.7% from 3.40%, driven by gasoline \[7\]\[9\]. Core is expected at +0.16–0.20% m/m and 2.4–2.5% y/y \[7\]\[8\]. Kiplinger flags a core upside surprise as the risk that could revive an October hike debate \[9\]. * **Banks:** JPM and WFC missed on revenue \[5\]. BAC, MS and BLK report before the open \[4\]. * **ASML:** Consensus is about €11.7B in sales against guidance of €11–12B \[10\]. Options imply a ±5.6% move \[1\]. **2. Names affected** |Group|Tickers|Driver| |:-|:-|:-| |Earnings, high impact|ASML, BAC, MS, BLK|Reports before the open| |Earnings, other|STT, PGR, FAST|Reports before the open| |Read-through|TSM (reports Thu), GS, JPM, C, WFC|ASML sets the AI-capex tone; banks have already reported| |CPI and rates|SPY, TLT, XLF/KRE|Rate-sensitive; the 10Y is near 5.25% \[13\]| I only pulled data for SPY, BAC, MS, BLK and ASML, the five most exposed to tomorrow's events. **3–4. Levels** These are 6-month swing pivots on closing prices, so intraday wicks are not captured. Single-touch levels (BAC, MS) are weak. |Last|Support|Resistance|SMA50|Read| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SPY|$778.01|$761.62 (−2.1%, 12 touches)|$779.09 (+0.14%, 6-month high)|$767.39|At resistance| |ASML|$1,717.76|$1,638.49 (−4.6%)|$1,723.81 (+0.35%); next $1,762.67|$1,742.54|At resistance, below SMA50| |MS|$186.64|$185.06 (−0.85%); $181.36 6-month low|$188.54 (+1.0%)|$206.43|Pinned between both| |BAC|$53.96|$53.05 (−1.7%)|$56.69 (+5.1%)|$59.60|Near support, downtrend| |BLK|$1,066.12|$1,053.80 (−1.2%, 3 touches)|$1,090.11 (+2.3%)|$1,104.90|Mid-range, near support| **5. Betting markets** * **Fed, Oct 28:** Polymarket has no change at 80.5% and a 25bp hike at 18.5% \[17\]. * **CPI y/y:** Polymarket has 3.7% at 36.0%, 3.8% at 7.8%, 3.5% at 7.0% and 3.9% at 0.7% \[16\]. The 3.6% bucket wasn't returned, so I can't say which outcome is the favorite. * **Core CPI:** Core m/m 0.3% is 30.5%, and core y/y 2.5% is 34.0% \[16\]. A 0.3% core print is the hawkish tail. * **10Y yield:** Polymarket has 5.4% by year-end at 61.5% and 5.5% at 33.2% \[21\]. Kalshi has 5.5% by Oct 31 at 13% \[21\]. * **SPY above $775 on Oct 14:** 75.5% on Polymarket, but on only $40 of volume, so treat it as a sentiment gauge \[20\]. **6. Flags (horizon: days to a week)** * **ASML, biggest mover (±5.6% implied):** Upside is a break above $1,723.81 and $1,762.67 on a Q4 or 2027 guide. JPMorgan sees preliminary 2027 guidance possibly above consensus \[11\], and the stock is 13.5% below its $1,986.87 high \[19\]. The bear point is that EPS estimates have fallen over 60 days and China is about 20% of 2026 sales \[12\]. A failed hold below the $1,742.54 SMA50 points to $1,638.49. * **MS, binary at levels:** Consensus EPS has slipped to $2.92 from $3.16, and the stock is down 8% in a month \[15\]. The low bar and Goldman's trading beat favor a squeeze toward $188.54, then $202.02. A break under $185.06 targets $181.36. * **BAC, skewed to a low bar:** The CEO guided Q3 investment-banking fees down more than 10% and trading flat \[23\], and the stock fell about 8% that week \[22\]. The stock is at $53.96, 16% below its $64.48 high \[18\]. A beat on net interest income could bounce it, but support is only $53.05 and the trend is down. * **SPY, CPI-dependent:** It sits 0.14% under its high. A soft core print (0.2% or less) opens a breakout above $779.09. A 0.3% core print, which the market puts at about 30%, or a 10Y near 5.4% \[21\] puts $761.62 in play. That is a 2.1% drop against 0.14% to the high, so the downside tail is larger than the upside. * **BLK:** Consensus EPS is $14.24 against a $13.91 print last quarter \[15\], but the stock trades at 25.9x trailing \[14\]. Moves are likely to stay inside $1,053.80–$1,090.11 unless CPI moves rates. **Net view:** I lean toward upside in ASML and MS, since both sit at levels with bars that have been reset lower. The strongest counter-argument is a hot core CPI in a hiking regime with the 10Y near 5.25% \[13\]. That hits SPY and the rate-sensitive financials first. If core prints at or below 0.2%, the upside setups carry. If it prints at 0.3%, treat the ASML and MS breakouts as failures. **Sources** * \[1\] Earnings Today: October 13, 2026 Calendar & Expected Moves — Web Search * \[2\] October 2026 U.S. Economic Calendar: CPI, Jobs & Fed | FedRateCalc — Web Search * \[3\] U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch — Web Search * \[4\] Goldman Sachs Q3 2026: EPS of $17.01 Tops Expectations, Six Straight Quarters | 24/7 Wall St. — Web Search * \[5\] Bank Earnings Q3 2026: Goldman +30% Beat, JPMorgan Misses Revenue | Investing.com — Web Search * \[6\] JPMorgan Earnings Preview: Q3 2026 Bank Earnings Season — Web Search * \[7\] US CPI Prep (14th October) - FinancialJuice — Web Search * \[8\] What time is the CPI report released on Wednesday, October 14? Schedule, consensus estimates, and Fed stakes — Web Search * \[9\] September CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Could Show | Kiplinger — Web Search * \[10\] ASML (ASML) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Key Metrics Investors Are Watching — Web Search * \[11\] ASML: Q3 2026 Outlook – Strong Demand; Preliminary 2027 Guidance May Exceed Consensus — Web Search * \[12\] ASML's Q3 Earnings Coming Up: How Should You Play the Stock? — Web Search * \[13\] What Will Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and State Street (NYSE:STT) Report on October 14? — Web Search * \[14\] US Banks Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C, BLK & MS — Web Search * \[15\] Wealth, Assets and Custody: What to Watch When Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and State Street Report - 24/7 Wall St. — Web Search * \[16\] Prediction markets: CPI September inflation — Source * \[17\] Prediction markets: Fed rate decision October — Source * \[18\] BAC Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · BAC * \[19\] ASML Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · ASML * \[20\] Prediction markets: S&P 500 close October 14 — Source * \[21\] Prediction markets: 10-year Treasury yield — Source * \[22\] Bank of America Stock Fell 8% Last Week After Its CEO Spoke at an Industry Conference. Here’s What He Said That Spooked Investors. | TIKR.com — Web Search * \[23\] Bank of America (BAC) Q3 investment banking fees to drop over 10% — Web Search

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**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 4W - 4L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **NVDA** | $137.00 (below) | $229.28 | -40.2% | Wed 5:23 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 1W - 0L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **AAPL** | $337.80 (below) | $341.30 | -1.0% | Wed 4:25 PM ET |

I need money for Christmas gifts. I started with a $250 today, aiming to reach $5k profit in 50 trades. You saw many of my previous post showing the entry, exit of the trades where I was growing another small account. Hope you get inspired. Life is short. I was a bit distracted and not posting recently. I will post the trades until I reach the it for the Christmas spirit. Simple options strategy, no wheel, iron condors etc. Using simple EMAs, VWAP etc to see the trends, levels calculations. I was greedy, should have taken my $10 profit per contract, but wanted to reach at closer a minimum wage of a person in UK. Trade: 4 contracts = $80 total profit. Total options cost = $160 50% profit Time in Trade : 75 min. Edging towards the morning glory 🤤 $10 per contract per day, it makes a huge difference with time. Don't be greedy every time. My trading plan and strategy is trading one trade a day, 2-5 times a week depending on availability. If you are learning by yourself, give it 2-3 months to see how you are progressing. If you believe I am lucky every day with the trades and posts 🤷🏻‍♂️ so be it. I believe I have no choice, I put in the effort and keep doing, any loss is my loss as it is me executing my own trades and money. I only day trade options on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc. Timestamp on the broker is UK time. So, entry time of 3.13 is 10.13 ET. I trade on my phone, screenshot is from TastyTrade. EMA 200 and VWAP on the screenshot for TradingView

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **META** ▲ | $780.00 (above) | $767.36 | $764.16 | +1.6% | Thu 9:55 AM ET | | **Record** | 7W - 4L | 64% | - | - | - |

4:30PM ET

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Nasdaq 100, measured on every CPI and PPI release since Aug 2023 (37 of each). CPI does move tech, just mostly before the open. The median high-to-low swing in the first 30 minutes after the 08:30 ET print is 0.71%, and the biggest was 2.27% (Apr 2024). PPI is smaller: median 0.43%, biggest 1.02%. The first move also tends to stick. At 60 minutes the index was still on the same side of the release price as at 5 minutes in 78% of CPI releases and 86% of PPI releases. So my read: if you only trade single tech names from the cash open, a lot of the reaction has already happened by 9:30 and is baked into the gap. That could be why it feels like CPI never matters. Caveats: this is index CFD data, not individual stocks or futures, 37 releases each is a small sample, and it's a count of what happened, not a model.