ET
Energy Transfer LP Common Units
stockNYSE

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $750.00 (below) | $754.51 | $752.69 | -0.6% | Wed 3:48 PM ET |

1:30pm ET

A simple thought-experiment that you can try, if you haven't already. Study the effects of inverting a strategy with no edge, or negative EV. The rest of my reply is AI-assisted: **The two last-hour strategies, and their "inverse"** What "MOC" means. A market-on-close order is an order to buy or sell at exactly the day's official closing price, at 4:00 PM ET. Big funds use these orders heavily because they must trade at the close: index funds, and leveraged funds like TQQQ that rebalance every day. From about 3:50 PM the exchanges publish whether more of those orders are buying or selling. That figure is called the "imbalance." What we tested. We used the S&P 500 on 523 trading days, from October 2024 to November 6, 2026. You can't trade the index itself, so you'd use SPY or S&P futures. All dollar figures below assume $10,000 traded per day, after costs. **Strategy 1: "The last 10 minutes follow the day" (the MOC idea)** The theory: on an up day, those rebalancing funds have to buy more at the close, which pushes the price up a bit further. On a down day, they push it further down. The rule: at 3:50 PM, if the market is up since yesterday's close, buy. If it's down, sell short. Get out at the close with an MOC order. One limit: the exchanges sell the real imbalance numbers, and we didn't have them. So we used the day's move so far as a stand-in. Result: it lost. It won on 42% of days and averaged −$2.27 a day, about −$1,190 over the two years. **Strategy 2: "The last half hour follows the first half hour"** Where it comes from: a 2018 research paper found this pattern in 1993–2013. The rule: at 10:00 AM, note whether the market is up or down since yesterday's close. At 3:30 PM, bet in that same direction until the close. Result: it lost. It won on 46% of days and averaged −$1.24 a day, about −$650 over two years. **The "inverse": do the opposite** Since Strategy 1 lost, the natural question is whether betting against the day's move in the last 10 minutes would have made money. **In hindsight it did, a little**: it won on 55% of days and averaged +$1.27 a day, about +$660 over two years. A typical day moved about ±$17. The best day was +$145 and the worst was −$83. **Reversing Strategy 2 made almost nothing: +$0.24 a day, and it won on 50.5% of days, a coin flip.** Why the inverse isn't "proof": It was picked after seeing the answer. Any rule that lost will look like a winner if you reverse it on the same days. It's like watching coin flips land tails 55% of the time, then "betting tails" on those same flips. It isn't strong enough to rule out luck. The average gain is small next to the daily ups and downs. Luck alone gives a result this good roughly 1 time in 12, and the bar we set in advance was stricter than that. The margin is thin. The test assumed about $0.50 of costs per $10,000. At $1, the average falls to $0.77 a day. **Why the results can be trusted** The rules and pass marks were written and locked before any results were calculated. A second program, written separately from the rules alone, got the same result on every one of the 523 days. **The short version to say out loud** "Big funds have to trade at the 4 PM close, so people think the last minutes of the day follow the day's direction. We tested that, plus a related idea from a 2018 research paper, on two years of S&P 500 data. Both lost money. Doing the opposite made about a dollar a day per $10,000, but we only found that after looking at the results, and it's small enough to be luck. It would have to work on new data before anyone should trust it."

https://preview.redd.it/jlda7klxxp0i1.png?width=1814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bba50a73aff47f1f3ce55dd13c2a5b8e53bee6a1 **📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)** **8:30 AM** | Main: CPI (headline/core m/m) | Forecast: Headline 0.3%; Core 0.2% | Previous: Headline 0.6%; Core 0.3% ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #CPI #Inflation

**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **QQQ** | $646.29 (below) | $680.31 | -5.0% | Wed 11:05 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **ASTS** | $53.51 (above) | $35.67 | +50.0% | Wed, Dec 9, 9:48 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 0W - 2L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $720.00 (below) | $752.69 | -4.3% | Tue 8:21 PM ET |

I could not send the image but here is the setup: Strategy: TEPGoldMGC\_Q17 Backtest type: Backtest (single run) Instrument: MGC DEC26 Bars: 5 minute, Last Period: 2023-01-01 to 2026-10-30 Commission: on (NinjaTrader Brokerage) Slippage: 1 tick Fill resolution: Standard Reward ratio (RR): 0.3 Stop: ATR(14) H1 x 1.25, min 180 ticks, no max Max risk per contract: $500 Breakeven: on: 40% of target, +10 ticks Max daily loss: $600 Max trades per day: 3 Max consecutive losses: 3 Weekly loss limit: off Start contracts: 3 Contracts after lock: 6 Lock level: $2,100 best EOD profit Add-on step: off Max contracts cap: 20 Drawdown guard: off Retry skipped session: off Refresh setup: off Profile: Aggressive Trend filter: D1Simple, longs need D1 H1 range bars: 9 Fibonacci / dead zone: off / off Sessions (ET): London 1-6, NY 7-17, Asia 18-23 (closed at end) News filter: NFP/FOMC 2023-26, -5/+5 min Max spread: 8 ticks Partial target: off Dynamic stop: off Longs / shorts: both Flat Friday NY close: on Entries per direction: 1, unique entries

I understand how frustrating this is. Since you've tried all of those troubleshooting steps already, I suggest reaching out to our Technical Support team for further troubleshooting. Representatives are available Monday through Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET using the link below. [Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Please let us know if you run into anything else.

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/2XyEkKmmbgOaMa starts at 6PM ET

I completely understand how this is frustrating. If you've already tried the troubleshooting steps we mentioned above and are still experiencing this, please get in touch with our Technical Support for further help resolving it. Representatives are available Monday through Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET using the link below. [Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us ) Please let us know if you run into anything else in the future.

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **DJT** ▼ | $3.50 (below) | $4.12 | $4.06 | -14.9% | Mon, Nov 16, 3:28 PM ET | | **Record** | 1W - 6L | 14% | - | - | - |

Thanks for the screenshots so I'm on the same page. Given the error code you're receiving for this options strategy, we'd recommend giving us a call so we can take a closer look into your situation and help place trades if necessary. Our Active Trader team is available Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., ET. If prompted by the automated system, please say "Active Trader" to be routed to the correct group. [Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) *Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the [Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options](https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document). Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.*

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 4W - 3L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $758.00 (above) | $754.18 | +0.5% | Tue 3:06 PM ET |

Tbf for the latter you’re using the volume after, what , an hour of trading? Let’s see what it is after market close. Volume is pretty steady and still slightly elevated (2.3M at 2:30 ET), but yeah it still pales in comparison to last Monday…

Good questions! I can help clarify what you're experiencing, but in short, nothing sounds awry here. Funds deposited into your Fidelity account will go directly to the core cash position, which is often the Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX). From there, your automatic investing plan will execute orders during market hours on the set trade date. You'll only experience a delay if the investment date falls on a weekend, a holiday, or beyond the end of the month (29th, 30th, 31st). In these instances, the purchase occurs on the next business day. [Recurring Investments](https://www.fidelity.com/trading/recurring-investments) You can find more details in the FAQs at the bottom of the page above. Also, I suggest double-checking the Recurring Activity Hub linked below to ensure your plan was established as intended. [Recurring Activity Hub](https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/recurring-activity/) If you notice that your plan isn't set up as expected, or if the normal market hours (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET) pass without a purchase, please let us know.

I have traded SPX for as long as it has been available. I used to be on IBKR since they were the first to enable overnight options, but Robinhood added it in the past year. Webull also has SPX now but does not enable overnight. To me, SPY is practically pointless if you trade more than 10 contracts. SPX has other benefits like cash settlement, so you can trade until the very last second before expiration. Have you ever noticed how price tends to flatten at 3 PM ET and then suddenly start moving at 3:30? That isn't random, it is because they are burning off theta for all the people who get auto-liquidated at 3:30 by their brokers. SPX is not subject to that, so you can gamble on silly options right at the end of the day if you want.

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **NBIS** | $150.00 (above) | $138.97 | +7.9% | Tue 1:20 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **NVDA** | $164.00 (below) | $177.20 | -7.5% | Tue 12:08 PM ET |

All of the above. I pick the price target, I estimate the target profit based on when I think it can get there (since options have decaying theta), and then see if the price action supports it. I was trying to target an exit of 50 and almost got there, but exited my remaining calls when it gave a red 1hr candle at 11 am ET

This is very thoughtful feedback! There are a few points I'll address here, and some we'll be sure to share with the development team, so let's jump in: Everything in your Fidelity Trader+ window should load up the way you left it, like you suggested. Since it's not, let's check to see if the auto-save feature is turned on. You can check this in the upper-right hand corner of your screen by clicking on the green icon next to your Workspace. There will be an auto-save button there. It should be on by default. Regarding charts, there is a button next to the options symbol (it's a rectangle that looks like a segment of a line graph). If you would like a chart to separate from the underlying security, you can toggle that button. This applies to that specific window. As for the column defaults, and the extended hours charts, I wasn't able to replicate what you're describing, and they're working the way they're intended for me (saving the previous state). We have some troubleshooting steps that can help with minor quirks. You may have already seen these on my colleague's reply to a different comment, but if you haven't already, please try the following: 1. Close and relaunch Trader+ 2. Restart your computer 3. Power cycle your system (shut down the computer, unplug the router from power for one minute, then power everything back up) If the issue persists, we recommend reaching out to our Technical Support team so they can troubleshoot with you. Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Please say "technical support" when prompted by the automated system to be connected to the right group. [Contact us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Finally, for the rest of your suggestions, we'll make sure to pass those along to our development team. We really appreciate you taking the time to submit such detailed feedback. Feel free to share any additional insights you have. *Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the [Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options](https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document). Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.*

To clarify, you'd receive your assignment on Monday, which would also be the trade date for the stock. Since stocks have a T+1 settlement, you'd have until 9 pm ET on the settlement day (Tuesday) to make any modifications.

**No Active BanBet** | W | L | Win Rate | |:---:|:---:|:---:| | 1 | 13 | 7% | *Banned from banbets until Tue 4:33 PM ET*

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21% profit. Like the dumping happened last few days, it pumped quickly this morning. Always happens, I no longer think I missed out, have this fear of missing out on the big moves. It is not my current strategy. 99% of beginners think this and then come crying here saying they lost 1000s. Santa does not say, we finish manufacturing toys early this year, let's distribute them! I follow my plan, follow yours and do take a small profit, consistent, get used to the Christmas spirit. Let got of the greed. If you are a beginner, market will still be here tomorrow, no need to throw all your money. If you lost some money this month, you can see my previous post and get inspired by my pitiful small profits ans posts 😬 and know that if you keep consistency, it may be in your favour. Don't put more money, practice and wait for next month. Give yourself time. **Total** $1,121 |Day|Little Profit $| |:-|:-| |11|122| |10|110| |9|200| |8|100| |7|125| |6|120| |5|70| |4|82| |3|52| |2|60| |1|80| I can trade SPY, QQQ but I am not doing it as IWM fit my current Christmas trading strategy/plan, the premiums are more expensive these days. If you are unsure, sit on your hands. I need money for Christmas gifts. No one is going to give me for free, I am not so beautiful. I started with a $250 account, aiming to reach $5k profit in 50 day/trades. You saw on many of my previous post I was growing another small account. Hope you get inspired. Life is short. I will try post the trades. Simple options strategy, no wheel, iron condors etc. Using simple EMAs, VWAP etc to see the trends, levels calculations. Trade: 6 contracts = $122 total profit. Total options cost = $580 22 % profit Time in Trade : 25min. Not a morning glory at all 🙄 $10 per contract per day, it makes a huge difference with time. Don't be greedy every time. My trading plan and strategy is trading one trade a day, 2-5 times a week depending on availability. If you are learning by yourself, give it 2-3 months to see how you are progressing. If you believe I am lucky every day with the trades and posts 🤷🏻‍♂️ so be it. I believe I have no choice, I put in the effort and keep doing, any loss is my loss as it is me executing my own trades and money. I only day trade options on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc. Timestamp on the broker is UK time. So, entry time of 3.02 is 10.02 ET. I trade on my phone, screenshot is from TastyTrade. EMA 200 and VWAP on the screenshot for TradingView