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Backtest over 10 years of data fails this:
**PureClaw (pureclaw.io) — iFVG recipe test, full rundown:**
**The site:** An experimental automated trading bot running on an Alpaca *paper* account, publishing its live results. Posted stats when we looked: 9 trades over 10 sessions, 66.7% win rate, PF 3.54, +$1,870 — with an honest disclaimer that it's simulated research, no real capital at risk.
**The recipe (published on the page):** Asia/London session high/low sweep → **inverse fair value gap reversal**. Real-time SPY signal bars, retrace limit entries, 3R targets, a max-stop filter, entries restricted to 9:30-12:00 ET, executing ES on paper.
**What was built to test it:** `pureclaw_ifvg.pine`, the recipe translated for NQ 5-minute data. Mechanics: track Asia (18:00-02:00 ET), London (02:00-08:00 ET), and prior-day highs/lows, frozen at the RTH open; require a **sweep** of one of those levels first; then watch for an **iFVG inversion** — a recent 5-min fair value gap that price *closes through*, flipping its polarity (failed bull gap becomes resistance, failed bear gap becomes support); limit entry at the inverted zone's midpoint; stop beyond the sweep extreme with a 2.5-ATR max-stop filter; flat 3R target; entries 9:30-12:00 ET only; one trade per day; flat by 15:55. Translation caveats: NQ instead of SPY/ES, and their exact session windows aren't published.
**Backtest period:** just under **10 years — Aug 1, 2016 through Jul 14, 2026** — on 703,659 five-minute NQ bars from your Quantower export, covering every regime in that span (2018 vol shock, COVID crash, 2021 melt-up, 2022 bear, 2023-26 bull). Tested three ways: the full decade, then split into two \~5-year halves (2016-2021 and 2021-2026) as the consistency gate.
**Pre-registered pass bar (set before running):** decade PF ≥ 1.2 on ≥ 80 trades, both halves independently positive, no parameter tuning afterward.
**Results:**
* **Full decade:** PF 0.70, 1,234 trades, 28.8% win rate, **-$4,111**
* **2016-2021:** PF 0.60, 579 trades, -$1,961
* **2021-2026:** PF 0.76, 655 trades, -$2,153
* Negative in *both* halves uniformly — no recency tilt, just consistent bleed. Gross P/L was \~+$2,000 against $6,170 in commissions: a pre-cost coin flip that costs turn into a loser.
**Verdict:** failed every gate. The iFVG inversion — the one genuinely new mechanism it introduced — adds nothing measurable over fresh gaps across a decade. And the contrast is the whole lesson: their PF 3.54 comes from 9 paper trades; the same recipe over 1,234 trades and ten years prints 0.70.

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