ET Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

The main event tomorrow (Fri Oct 2) is the September jobs report at 8:30am ET, and Nike is the only name with an earnings reaction. I found no other noteworthy earnings for Friday \[3\]. Levels below are from closing prices (the data has no intraday highs and lows).
**Catalysts**
* **September payrolls:** consensus is +89K, prior +162K \[1\]. Trading Economics' model forecast is 120K \[2\]. August's +162K beat a 55K consensus and pushed up Fed-hike bets. The S&P 500 closed down 0.38% that day and consumer discretionary fell most \[1\]\[6\].
* **Rates backdrop:** the 10-year yield was 5.31% on Oct 1, up 0.53 points in a month \[10\]. The ^(TNX) quote shows 5.24% \[13\]; I couldn't reconcile the two. A Fed hike is the live risk, and yields hit their highest since 2007 in mid-September on Iran-driven oil \[11\].
* **Nike (NKE):** reported after the close. Revenue was $11.21B, down 4% and below the $11.32B estimate. Greater China fell 22%. Adjusted FY27 EPS guidance is $1.15–1.35, about 22% below the $1.61 consensus. The stock was down as much as 6.6% after hours \[9\]. It closed at $35.15, a six-month low \[12\]\[14\].
**Likely affected (my judgment):** NKE and consumer discretionary peers (XLY, LULU), SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, and rate-sensitive groups such as banks, homebuilders, REITs and utilities. I didn't test levels on the last group.
**Levels on the five most exposed**
|Last|Nearest support|Nearest resistance|Read|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|NKE|35.15|None, at 6M low|38.77 (20d high), 38.85 (50d SMA)|Gapping below its low|
|TLT|77.71|None, at 6M low|82.21 (20d high)|At the low|
|IWM|279.02|277.89 (20d and 60d low), 0.41% below|295.24 (20d high)|On support|
|SPY|763.99|761.56 (50d SMA), 752.18 (20d low)|773.5 (20d high), 775.95 (6M high)|Mid-range, 1.54% below the high|
|QQQ|742.03|715.06 (50d SMA)|747.46 (6M high), 0.73% above|Just under the high|
**Betting markets**
* **Payrolls:** Polymarket puts 100–150K at 36.5% and 50–100K at 33.0%. Kalshi has above 125K at 28% and above 0 at 88% \[8\]. Both imply a print near or above the 89K consensus.
* **Unemployment rate:** Polymarket has 4.1% at 38.5%, 4.2% at 30.0% and 4.0% at 23.0% \[4\].
* **Fed (Oct 28):** Polymarket has no change at 73.5% and a 25bp hike at 25.5% \[7\]. A strong print raises the hike odds, and the August precedent shows that is bad for equities and bonds.
* **Nike:** the only Nike markets are earnings-call word-mention contracts, so there is no price signal.
**Most likely to jump**
* **TLT:** the most asymmetric. It sits at its 6M low, and the nearest resistance is 5.5% above. A weak print (Polymarket gives below 50K about 24%) could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce. A hot print breaks the low and extends the 5.31% yield move.
* **IWM:** it is 0.41% above support at 277.89. A weak print and falling yields could spark a relief rally. A hot print breaks below it, with the next support at the 6M low of 250.04.
* **NKE:** a gap down from the 6M low into open air, with no support below $35.15. A bounce back toward 38.8 is possible but needs a reversal after the guidance cut, and short interest was already called crowded \[5\].
* **SPY and QQQ:** these have less room either way. QQQ needs only a 0.73% move to test its 747.46 high, and SPY has support at 761.56 just below.
Net view for the next few days: I give the upside scenario somewhat more weight. TLT and IWM have the best skew at their lows on a soft number. The strongest bear point is that August's beat of about 107K over consensus triggered a sell-off. A second beat with the 10-year above 5.3% would break TLT, IWM and NKE together.
**Sources**
* \[1\] United States Nonfarm Payrolls — Web Search
* \[2\] United States Non Farm Payrolls — Web Search
* \[3\] Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (Sept. 28-Oct. 2) | Kiplinger — Web Search
* \[4\] Prediction markets: jobs report unemployment rate September — Source
* \[5\] NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance — Web Search
* \[6\] Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets | Reuters — Web Search
* \[7\] Prediction markets: Fed rate October FOMC — Source
* \[8\] Prediction markets: nonfarm payrolls September jobs added — Source
* \[9\] Why Nike Stock Fell After Its October 2026 Earnings — Web Search
* \[10\] US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News — Web Search
* \[11\] 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 — Web Search
* \[12\] NKE Quote — Live Quote · NKE
* \[13\] ^(TNX) Quote — Live Quote · ^(TNX)
* \[14\] NKE Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · NKE

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