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ET
Energy Transfer LP Common Units representing limited partner interests
stock NYSE

Market Open
Mar 5, 2026 2:27:17 PM EST
18.78USD+0.133%(+0.02)9,470,400
18.77Bid   18.78Ask   0.01Spread
Pre-market
Mar 5, 2026 9:27:30 AM EST
18.82USD+0.315%(+0.06)13,609
After-hours
Mar 4, 2026 4:55:30 PM EST
18.81USD+0.284%(+0.05)0
OverviewOption ChainMax PainOptionsPrice & VolumeDividendsHistoricalExchange VolumeDark Pool LevelsDark Pool PrintsExchangesShort VolumeShort Interest - DailyShort InterestBorrow Fee (CTB)Failure to Deliver (FTD)ShortsTrendsNewsTrends
ET Reddit Mentions
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We have sentiment values and mention counts going back to 2017. The complete data set is available via the API.
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ET Specific Mentions
As of Mar 5, 2026 2:27:20 PM EST (<1 min. ago)
Includes all comments and posts. Mentions per user per ticker capped at one per hour.
7 min ago • u/Junior-Appointment93 • r/thetagang • spx_credit_spreads • C
That short of time. I just let it expire. I width apart. No less then above or below $50 from the current share price. So if It’s 330PM ET and SPX is trading at 6850 for example spreads at minimum would be 6700/6705 or 6800/6795. Depending on that days direction
sentiment -0.25
14 min ago • u/FidelityJames • r/fidelityinvestments • 401k_loan • C
Good afternoon, u/publicbrodcast. I'm happy to discuss 401(k) loan withdrawal timeframes with you.
Typically, for Electronic Funds Transfers (EFTs) to your bank on file, you will receive your money in 3 business days. If processing requires the sale of stock, it will take an additional 3 business days to receive the money. Keep in mind that this does not include weekends or holidays. Additionally, please note that some requests may be delayed if there are issues with paperwork, available funds, missing bank instructions, etc.
That said, you can always contact our Workplace Investing team to status any 401(k) loans/withdrawals. Associates are generally available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to midnight ET to assist you and can be reached using the link below.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
We appreciate you asking this question today, and if anything else comes up, don't hesitate let us know!
sentiment 0.91
2 hr ago • u/FidelityLiz • r/fidelityinvestments • 0_intro_apr_fidelity_card • C
Welcome, u/Ecstatic_Test_3330. We appreciate that you've come by the sub to ask our community about their experience with the Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature Card. I'll just hop in to share some information quickly with you.
When it comes to promotional offers on the Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature Card, we work with Elan Financial Services to administer the card. Elan Financial will occasionally run its own offers and promotions, so you'll need to contact them directly to review your specific questions about applying and the bonus. Their associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. ET and on Saturday from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. ET. Their contact information is listed on the link below.
[Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature Card](https://www.fidelity.com/spend-save/preapproval-visa-signature-card)
I will leave you now to continue discussing the card with our community, but please let us know if you have any other questions we can help with. Thanks for considering Fidelity, and I hope you have a great weekend!
sentiment 0.98
3 hr ago • u/FidelityJoseph • r/fidelityinvestments • qdro_timeline • C
Hey, u/guy5678. I can provide some context for you.
Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO) timeframes can vary based on the specific plan and situation. As a result, we typically recommend contacting our Workplace Investing team directly. I realize you've contacted our Workplace Investing team directly once before, but we recommend continuing to work with them on this.
For background, in a divorce settlement, assets from a workplace retirement plan (such as 401(k)s) are sometimes allocated through a QDRO. These can get quite complex and nuanced, which is why we encourage participants to work with our Workplace Investing team on them.
Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to midnight ET. Use the link below to reach out.
[Contact us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
We'll be here for any other questions if they arise. Have a great day.
sentiment 0.95
6 hr ago • u/FidelityMikeS • r/fidelityinvestments • visual_bug_in_my_goals • C
Hey there, u/ReimannOne. We would like to encourage you to double-check your updates, since 4.27 is now available.
If you confirm you are running the latest version of the app and are still having trouble, we recommend reaching out to our Technical Support team so they can troubleshoot the issue with you. Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET.
[Contact us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us )
Thanks again for following up with us, and have a good day.
sentiment 0.95
6 hr ago • u/marima33 • r/stocks • can_someone_tell_me_whats_so_special_about_rklb • C
Is it a plus or a minus that Cathie Wood believes? RKLB is the second biggest holding in ARKX - **ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ET**
sentiment 0.54
6 hr ago • u/Present-Cricket-5895 • r/pennystocks • nxrg_trade_idea_ahead_of_q4_earnings_march_5 • :DDNerd: 🄳🄳 :DDNerd: • B
Volatility setup incoming
The market is sleeping on the potential re‑rating for NeutronX ($NXRG).
# Key Metrics
Annual revenue approximately 30M and steadily growing
Market cap around 14M
Price to sales ratio roughly 0.47x
For comparison, peers in energy infrastructure and AI-driven microgrid tech often trade at 1.2x to 2x sales. If $NXRG even hits 1x sales, the stock could easily double from current levels.
# Catalysts Today
Q4 earnings at 8:30 AM ET
New federal energy contracts in discussion could materially improve revenue visibility
AI microgrid demonstrations at Resilient City Expo generating attention
# Company Updates
Recent strategic pivot toward federal and defense-linked energy projects increases contract size and reduces execution risk.
Management has been actively cutting operational overhead, improving margins over the last two quarters.
# Technical Snapshot
Yesterday the stock rallied 18 percent on strong volume, indicating possible accumulation at current levels.
Float is tight, around 11M shares, and short interest is roughly 1.4M shares (12.7% of float). This could make a post-earnings move amplified if results beat low expectations.
# Price Targets
Target 1: 1.80 for initial resistance and gap fill
Target 2: 2.40 if Q4 and contract announcements confirm narrative
Target 3: 3.50 plus if federal contracts start materializing and multiple expansion occurs
# Risk / Reward
Downside limited near cash and tangible asset levels.
Upside asymmetric with rerating potential and low float amplifying moves.
TLDR: 30M revenue, 14M market cap, tight float, 12.7% short interest, strategic federal pivot, Q4 earnings March 5. Big move possible either way.
sentiment 0.97
7 hr ago • u/Squeeze-Finder • r/Shortsqueeze • squeezefinder_march_5th_2026 • DD🧑‍💼 • B
https://preview.redd.it/r1iwx81t48ng1.png?width=2104&format=png&auto=webp&s=f83e954e912902d355fdc51a9cca36816ed1565f
Good morning, SqueezeFinders!
Yesterday's price action on the $QQQ tech index suggests that bulls are nearly ready to memory hole the global-scale geopolitical conflict/war in the Middle-East already! Very strong close with the $QQQ tech index closing up 1.52% at 610.75 with an intraday high of 612.88 (the 613 pivot is still being respected after all this time). If the bulls can break through the 613-615 pivot range, it could set us up for a very bullish March. However, we're not out of the woods yet, and should continue to monitor supports at 602-600 psychological level in case the bears get emboldened again for any reason. The main directional determinants to watch for today are a mix of the below-detailed economic data releases, and also $COST earnings report in after-hours. Regardless of broader market sentiment, you can always locate relative strength by tapping/clicking the column headers to sort the live watchlist in descending order of whichever data metric is important to you. You can also use SqueezeRadar to see which plays are showing irregular movement in a plethora of data metrics. Stay tuned with SqueezeBot as a strong February performance showed an 88% win rate using our 3% scalping strategy (more details available in the discord!)
🥇 Gold: \~$5,200/oz (+1.3%)
🥈 Silver: \~$85.3/oz (+2.5%)
🪙 Bitcoin: \~$72.5k/coin (+7%)
Today's economic data releases are:
🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Jan) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (Q4) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Import Price Index (Jan) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (Q4) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Export Price Index (Jan) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Exports (Jan) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Imports (Jan) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Factory Orders (Jan) @ 10:00AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks @ 1:15PM ET
🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet @ 4:30PM ET
📙Breakdown point: BELOW this price, the move will lose momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts will gain confidence encouraging them to short more. Reducing probability of a squeeze without a catalyst.
📙Breakout point: ABOVE this price, the move will gain momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts losses will increase pressuring them to cover. Increasing the probability of a squeeze occurring, especially if with a catalyst.
4. $HNST
Squeezability Score: 50%
Juice Target: 5.8
Confidence: 🍊 🍊
Price: 2.93 (+3.17%)
Breakdown point: 2.6
Breakout point: 3.0
Mentions (30D): 2
Event/Condition: Potentially imminent medium-term downtrend bullish reversal + Elevated rel vol + Potentially imminent gap-fill from \~3 to \~3.3 + Q4 results in line with expectations alongside first-ever $25M share repurchase authorization signaling confidence in cash position and undervaluation + launch of new Sensitive Rich Cream skincare product expanding accessible gentle care offerings across ages to boost personal care segment + Transformation 2.0 plan targeting 4-6% organic revenue growth in 2026 via core focus, margin expansion to low-40s, and non-core exits for improved profitability + Recent price target 🎯 of $3.50 from B. Riley + Recent price target 🎯 of $3.50 from Alliance Global Partners + Recent price target 🎯 of $5 from Northland Capital Markets.
5. $RNG
Squeezability Score: 36%
Juice Target: 55.8
Confidence: 🍊 🍊
Price: 39.17 (+6.38%)
Breakdown point: 35.0
Breakout point: 43.3
Mentions (30D): 0 🆕
Event/Condition: Potentially imminent continuation of short-term bullish momentum + Potentially imminent long-term rangebound breakout + Q3 revenue $639M at high end with margin expansion and free cash flow growth + full year 2025 results showing $2.5B revenue record $530M free cash flow initiation of $0.075 quarterly dividend and $500M expanded buyback authorization signaling strong capital return confidence + AI-driven momentum with $100M ARR from new products and doubled RingCX revenue highlighting accelerating enterprise adoption of voice AI tools + Recent price target 🎯 of $37 from Piper Sandler + Recent price target 🎯 of $34 from Baird + Recent price target 🎯 of $38 from Oppenheimer.
Gain access to all our cutting-edge research tools, live watchlists, alerts, and more: [https://www.squeeze-finder.com/subscribe](https://www.squeeze-finder.com/subscribe)
HINT: Use code RDDT to get your first month for just $10!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THESE POSTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
sentiment 1.00
18 hr ago • u/EnvironmentalSide174 • r/stocks • which_stocks_do_you_truly_believe_in • C
Spotify, NVDA, ET, CPRX
sentiment 0.00
18 hr ago • u/FidelityAdamW • r/fidelityinvestments • positions_tab_is_broken_in_brave_browser • C
Good evening, u/ReedWrite. Thank you for sharing your experience with our sub.
I wanted to start by letting you know that we appreciate you providing us with the steps you have already taken to troubleshoot the problem. With that said, Linux is not officially supported by Fidelity.com. When it comes to using any internet browser, we recommend making sure that you're using the most up-to-date version of this browser.
If these issues persist, we recommend contacting our Technical Support team. Associates are available Monday through Friday, from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Just say "Technical Support" when prompted by the automated assistant to be connected with the proper group.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
If there is anything else we can help you with, please don't hesitate to let us know.
sentiment 0.97
18 hr ago • u/FidelityJelise • r/fidelityinvestments • is_ftihx_priced_correctly_today • C
Hello, u/__Finch__. We appreciate you stopping by the sub this evening to inquire about the pricing of Fidelity Total International Index Fund (FTIHX).
After completing some research, I can confirm the Net Asset Value (NAV) of FTIHX has not been updated for today. The NAV currently stands at $18.31. Keep in mind that mutual funds price at the end of standard market hours, which is 4 p.m. ET; however, it can take several hours after markets close for the numbers to be reported, and up to an overnight cycle for the numbers to update on Fidelity.com
To quickly hit on your second question, the distribution schedule for dividends and capital gains for FTIHX is in the month of December, when issued. I will drop a couple of links below to serve as a helpful resource to learn more about FTIHX and the distribution history.
[Fidelity Total International Index Fund (FTIHX)](https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fees-and-prices/31635V638)
[Pricing and Distributions](https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/information/overview)
Once you’ve had a moment to review the information, we'd love to hear back from you to make sure you're squared away! Does this cover what you needed today?
sentiment 0.94
19 hr ago • u/TrendTao • r/Daytrading • spy_spx_marketmoving_headlines_thursday_march_5 • Trade Idea • B
https://preview.redd.it/75p8xbcpi4ng1.png?width=1515&format=png&auto=webp&s=43f4c8827e67631bc6113fb130779b07c00c81af
🌍 Market-Moving News
🛡️ **Cybersecurity Re-Rates Higher**
CrowdStrike’s post-earnings surge is shifting sentiment across cloud security and broader SaaS, forcing a rethink of “software demand fatigue.”
💻 **Software Leadership vs Laggards**
Investors continue rotating toward clear category winners while punishing platforms viewed as margin-pressured or execution-risk names.
🏭 **Industrial vs Tech Tug-of-War**
Recent cross-asset price action shows markets still debating whether growth is broadening into the “physical economy” or concentrating into select tech leaders.
🤖 **Automation Theme Stays Bid**
Robotics and operational efficiency plays remain a focal point as companies prioritize productivity gains and cost control.
🧭 **Positioning Ahead of Friday’s Jobs Report**
Risk appetite remains sensitive to labor narratives, with investors staying tactical into the final major catalyst of the week.
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data
Thursday, March 5 (ET)
8:30 AM
Initial Jobless Claims (Feb. 28)
Forecast: 215,000
Previous: 212,000
U.S. Productivity (Q4)
Forecast: 1.8%
Previous: 4.9%
Import Price Index (Jan.)
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.1%
Import Price Index Minus Fuel (Jan.)
Forecast: --
Previous: NA
1:15 PM
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks
7:00 PM
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Macro #FederalReserve #JoblessClaims #Productivity #Inflation #Earnings #Tech #Cybersecurity #Volatility #Markets
sentiment 0.86
19 hr ago • u/TheGameStopsNow • r/Superstonk • the_shadow_ledger_part_6_the_cash_engine • 📚 Due Diligence • B
# The Shadow Ledger, Part 6: The Cash Engine
# Part 6 of 7
**TL;DR:** Part 5 traced the plumbing between the equity desk, options desk, and crypto desk through BNY Mellon's ISDA margin infrastructure. This post asks: *where does the cash come from?* SEC N-MFP filings reveal that BNY Mellon's Dreyfus Government Cash Management fund, one of the largest money market funds in the world, underwent a permanent regime shift in July 2021, with triparty repo lending jumping 58% in a single month from $40.5 billion to $64 billion and eventually tripling from its baseline to $86.2 billion. The month the repos peaked (December 2021) is the same month Citadel Securities reported $71.33 billion in pledged collateral. The fund's repo expansion is negatively correlated with GME settlement failures (r = -0.42): as BNY Mellon pumped more cash into the repo system, fewer FTDs reached the public tape, at *higher* stock prices. Combined with documented FINRA enforcement actions showing Pershing (BNY's clearing subsidiary) was cited for Reg SHO locate violations specifically involving non-U.S. broker-dealers, and the fact that BNY Mellon exited Brazil's fund administration business entirely (2,535 cancelled funds) while maintaining its derivatives-capable subsidiary, the cash engine powering the accommodation waterfall is now mapped from source to settlement.
>**⚠️ Methodology Note:** This post integrates four categories of public evidence: (1) SEC DERA N-MFP quarterly flat files for Dreyfus Government Cash Management (CIK 0000740766), (2) SEC EDGAR 13F filings for BNY Mellon, (3) FINRA BrokerCheck enforcement records for Pershing LLC (CRD 7560), and (4) Brazilian CVM Dados Abertos fund registry data. All data is machine-extracted from primary regulatory sources. Where the analysis *correlates* data points across these sources, the interpretation is the author's. Readers should distinguish between "the filing shows X" and "I interpret X as evidence of Y." All data files are published for independent verification.
>**📄 Full academic papers:** [The Long Gamma Default (PDF)](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/blob/main/papers/The%20Long%20Gamma%20Default-%20How%20Options%20Market%20Structure%20Creates%20Artificial%20Stability%20in%20Equity%20Prices.pdf?raw=1) · [Boundary Conditions (PDF)](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/blob/main/papers/Boundary%20Conditions-%20Settlement%20Stress%20Propagation%2C%20Obligation%20Migration%2C%20and%20Cross-Market%20Contagion%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Clearing%20Infrastructure.pdf?raw=1)
*Part 1 mapped the phantom locates. Part 2 traced the risk transfer. Part 3 followed the funding. Part 4 mapped the collateral endgame. Part 5 showed how the plumbing connects. This post maps the cash engine.*
# 1. The Missing Layer
Part 5 established that BNY Mellon serves as the common custodian for the cross-market architecture, managing ISDA margin for both Citadel and Jane Street while operating as triparty agent for the U.S. repo market. The capital flow model had five stages: settlement pressure → margin stress → synthetic relief → crypto liquidation → fiat bridge.
But that model omitted the *source of cash* that keeps the system liquid. If prime brokers need tens of billions to finance pledged collateral, where does the money originate?
The answer is BNY Mellon's own money market fund business, specifically, the fund it inherited when it acquired The Dreyfus Corporation.
# 2. The Fund: Dreyfus Government Cash Management
**Dreyfus Government Cash Management** (CIK [0000740766](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000740766&type=N-MFP&dateb=&owner=include&count=40)) is a government money market fund administered by BNY Mellon Investment Adviser, Inc. It deploys investor cash into two primary instruments:
1. **U.S. Government agency debt** (FHLB, FFCB, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, Treasuries)
2. **Triparty repurchase agreements** with 30+ prime broker counterparties, collateralized by Treasuries and agency securities
As of January 2026, the fund holds $118+ billion in daily liquid assets with 56 active triparty repo agreements. Its counterparties include every major prime brokerage bank:
|Tier|Counterparties|
|:-|:-|
|Top (7+ repos)|J.P. Morgan Wealth Management|
|Mid (3-4 repos)|BNP Paribas, Royal Bank of Canada, BofA Securities, Credit Agricole, Wells Fargo|
|Broad (1-2 repos)|Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC, Nomura, UBS, Deutsche, Mizuho, Daiwa, Societe Generale, and 15+ others|
These banks are the same entities that provide prime brokerage financing to the market makers documented in Parts 1-5. The cash flow is indirect but traceable:
>**Dreyfus MMF → Triparty repos → Prime broker banks → Market maker financing → Trading positions**
BNY Mellon sits at the center of every link: it operates the fund, manages the collateral, clears through Pershing, and custodies the resulting positions.
*Source: SEC EDGAR N-MFP3 filing for Dreyfus Government Cash Management, January 2026.*
# 3. The July 2021 Regime Shift
Using the [SEC's DERA N-MFP quarterly flat file](https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22N-MFP%22&dateRange=custom&startdt=2020-01-01&enddt=2026-01-01) datasets, I extracted monthly repo volumes for Dreyfus Government Cash Management from December 2019 through May 2022 (the last available DERA publication).
|Report Date|Repo Volume|Total Fund|Repo %|\# Agreements|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Dec 2019|$28.6B|$57.2B|50.0%|42|
|Jun 2020|$29.2B|$86.8B|33.7%|48|
|Dec 2020|$37.6B|$82.3B|45.7%|50|
|**Jan 2021**|**$38.9B**|**$90.8B**|**42.8%**|**52**|
|Jun 2021|$40.5B|$109.8B|36.9%|56|
|**Jul 2021**|**$64.0B**|**$116.1B**|**55.1%**|**47**|
|**Aug 2021**|**$68.6B**|**$119.7B**|**57.3%**|**49**|
|Nov 2021|$85.2B|$131.0B|65.0%|54|
|**Dec 2021**|**$86.2B**|**$128.1B**|**67.3%**|**43**|
|May 2022|$80.4B|$118.0B|68.2%|42|
In July 2021, Dreyfus repo lending jumped **58% in a single month**, from $40.5 billion to $64 billion. From that month onward, repos never dropped below $64 billion, eventually tripling from the December 2019 baseline.
This was not gradual growth. This was a permanent structural shift in how the fund deployed cash. Between December 2019 and December 2021:
* Repo volume: **$28.6B → $86.2B** (+201%)
* Total fund size: **$57.2B → $128.1B** (+124%)
* Repo share of portfolio: **50.0% → 67.3%**
The fund grew by $71 billion, and $58 billion of that growth went directly into triparty repos with prime broker banks.
*Source: SEC DERA N-MFP quarterly flat files, field* `INCLUDINGVALUEOFANYSPONSORSUPP` *from* `NMFP_SCHPORTFOLIOSECURITIES.tsv`\*, filtered by CIK 740766 and series name "Dreyfus Government Cash Management."\*
# What Happened in July 2021?
The July inflection sits at a nexus of events:
* **June 2021**: GME completed a $1.126 billion ATM share offering, absorbing settlement pressure
* **July 2021**: The SEC's GameStop Report data-gathering window was closing
* **August 2021**: The Bloomberg "Brazil puts" appeared, millions of GME put options attributed to Brazilian entities, dismissed as a terminal "bug"
* **System-wide**: The Fed's ON RRP facility was absorbing trillions in excess MMF cash, yet Dreyfus *increased* its private repo lending, going against the industry trend
Dreyfus increased private repo lending while the rest of the MMF industry was parking cash at the Fed's ON RRP, a divergence that stands out because private repos carry counterparty risk that ON RRP does not. The data does not explain *why* this allocation occurred, but it documents *that* it occurred, at scale, beginning the same month as the events described below.
>\[!NOTE\] **Timing footnote:** On **July 1, 2021** (00:41 UTC / June 30 8:41 PM ET), the same month the Dreyfus repo regime shifted, Ryan Cohen posted his most cited tweet: **"Brick By Brick 🧱."** Whether RC had visibility into the counterparty liquidity infrastructure his company's stock was stressing is unknowable from public data. But the month that BNY Mellon's Dreyfus fund pivoted from $40.5B to $64B in private repo lending, the cash engine documented in this section, is the same month GameStop's chairman chose a building metaphor. Three days later (July 4): "Power to the Players 🇺🇸." Five months later, on **November 30, 2021**, one day before what this post documents as peak Citadel pledged collateral ($71.33B, December 2021), RC tweeted: "Only interested in speaking with candidates who want to actually WORK." The juxtaposition of "WORK" against peak financial-engineering leverage may be coincidental. It may not be.
# 4. The Accommodation Timeline
To test whether the Dreyfus repo expansion correlates with settlement stress, I overlaid the repo time series against GME's Failures-to-Deliver and price data across 29 months.
|Metric|Pre-Inflection (18 mo)|Post-Inflection (11 mo)|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Avg Dreyfus Repos**|**$34.3B**|**$77.6B**|**+126%**|
|Avg Monthly FTDs|5,382,269|921,729|**-83%**|
|Avg GME Close|$18.31|$39.35|**+115%**|
**Pearson Correlations (n=29 months):**
|Pair|r-value|
|:-|:-|
|Dreyfus Repos ↔ Total FTD Volume|**-0.42**|
|Dreyfus Repos ↔ Max Daily FTD|**-0.49**|
|Dreyfus Repos ↔ GME Close Price|**+0.54**|
|Dreyfus Repos ↔ GME Monthly High|**+0.51**|
The negative correlation between repo cash and FTDs is the quantitative signature of the accommodation waterfall. Standard market mechanics predict that higher GME prices and sustained short interest should produce *more* settlement failures, not fewer. The inverse relationship, more repo cash ↔ fewer visible failures at higher prices, is consistent with the expansion of the cash pool *suppressing* settlement failures before they reach the public tape.
>**Stationarity disclosure:** Both the Dreyfus repo and GME FTD series are non-stationary (Augmented Dickey-Fuller p=0.92 and p=0.34 respectively). When the correlation is re-run on **first differences** (ΔRepo vs ΔFTD), the significance vanishes (r=0.24, p=0.21). This means the Pearson r=-0.42 in levels is likely a **spurious non-stationary correlation**, two trending variables that happen to move in opposite directions over time (Granger & Newbold, 1974). I'm disclosing this because intellectual honesty requires it.
>
>However, the structural argument does not depend on the Pearson r. It depends on: (1) the **timing** of the July 2021 regime shift, which coincides with specific GME events rather than macro trends; (2) the **counter-trend behavior**, Dreyfus increased private repo lending while the industry was parking cash at the Fed's ON RRP; and (3) the **Vanguard control test** below, which shows that a comparable MMF *without* BNY Mellon's vertical integration shows no similar relationship. The levels correlation provided suggestive context, but the structural evidence carries the claim.
# Key Inflection Points
* **January 2021 (Squeeze)**: $38.9B repos, 15.7M total FTDs, settlement failures overwhelmed the available cash pool
* **July 2021 (Inflection)**: Repos jump 58% to $64.0B, FTDs immediately drop to 774K
* **August 2021 (Brazil puts)**: $68.6B repos, 2.1M FTD spike, the exact month millions of "Brazil puts" appeared on Bloomberg, then disappeared as a "bug"
* **November 2021**: $85.2B repos, only 275K FTDs at $49-62 GME price, fewer failures at *higher* prices. The system is fully accommodated.
* **December 2021 (Peak)**: $86.2B repos, Citadel Securities simultaneously reports $71.33B in pledged collateral
*Data: SEC DERA N-MFP flat files (repos), SEC FTD data (failures), Polygon daily bars (price). Analysis script and data published in* [*research repository*](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)*.*
# The Control Test: Vanguard Federal Money Market
A critic could argue that the Dreyfus-FTD correlation is simply a byproduct of post-COVID macro liquidity, both metrics reacting to the same Fed-driven environment. To rule this out, I extracted total portfolio values from N-MFP filings for **Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund** (CIK [0000106830](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000106830&type=N-MFP&dateb=&owner=include&count=40)), a similarly sized government money market fund that is *not* operated by BNY Mellon.
If both Dreyfus and Vanguard show the same negative correlation with GME FTDs, the signal is macro-driven. If only Dreyfus shows it, the signal is specific to BNY Mellon's cash pool.
**Table: Control MMF Correlation Test (n = 29 months)**
|Fund|Metric|r-value|p-value|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Dreyfus** (BNY Mellon)|Repos ↔ Total FTDs|**-0.423**|**0.022**|
|Vanguard (Control)|Portfolio ↔ Total FTDs|\+0.096|0.619|
|**Dreyfus**|Repos ↔ Max Daily FTD|**-0.491**|**0.007**|
|Vanguard|Portfolio ↔ Max Daily FTD|\+0.001|0.995|
|**Dreyfus**|Repos ↔ GME Close|**+0.540**|**0.003**|
|Vanguard|Portfolio ↔ GME Close|\+0.243|0.204|
The result is statistically significant and specific to one institution:
* **Dreyfus repos** show a statistically significant negative correlation with GME FTDs (r = -0.423, p = 0.022). More BNY Mellon repo cash → fewer settlement failures reaching the public tape.
* **Vanguard portfolio** shows *no* statistically significant relationship (r = +0.096, p = 0.619). Its direction is *positive*, the opposite of what you'd expect if the correlation were driven by macro liquidity conditions.
* Over the same period, **Dreyfus repos grew +179%** while **Vanguard grew only +40%**.
The control test narrows the signal. The FTD relationship is specific to BNY Mellon's cash pool, not to money market funds in general. This is consistent with an institution-specific accommodation mechanism, though correlation does not establish causation, and alternative explanations (coincident growth in repo demand unrelated to GME) cannot be ruled out without counterparty-level data.
*Data: SEC EDGAR N-MFP primary XML filings for CIK 740766 (Dreyfus) and CIK 106830 (Vanguard). Parsed files:* [`vanguard_nmfp_parsed.json`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)*,* [`control_mmf_analysis.json`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)*.*
# 5. The December 2021 Sync
The temporal coincidence between peak Dreyfus repo volume and Citadel's pledged collateral is the strongest quantitative link in the chain.
* **Dreyfus repo lending (Dec 2021)**: $86.2 billion
* **Citadel Securities pledged collateral (Dec 2021)**: $71.33 billion ([SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=citadel+securities&CIK=&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany))
Both figures are contemporaneous. BNY Mellon acts as Citadel's clearing bank for triparty transactions. Citadel Securities holds its cash at Bank of New York Mellon. UCC-1 financing statements confirm BNY Mellon as a secured party for Citadel financing.
If even a fraction of Citadel's $71 billion in pledged collateral flowed through BNY Mellon's triparty system, which is structurally likely given their clearing relationship, then Dreyfus fund investor cash was directly financing the collateral chain supporting the market maker's positions. The same institution (BNY Mellon) simultaneously:
1. **Generated the cash** (Dreyfus MMF)
2. **Managed the collateral** (triparty agent)
3. **Cleared the trades** (Pershing)
4. **Custodied the positions** ($52.1 trillion in AUC/A as of Dec 2024)
5. **Controlled the DTCC settlement layer** (Global Collateral Platform)
# 6. The Locate Factory
BNY Pershing provides clearing and custody services to approximately 1,400 broker-dealer clients across 40 countries, representing 7 million investor accounts and over $1 trillion in assets. Its capabilities include a **real-time locate facility** for short selling and access to hard-to-borrow securities.
# Pershing Balance Sheet (December 31, 2021)
|Item|Amount|
|:-|:-|
|**Securities Loaned**|**$25.6 billion**|
|Securities Borrowed|$8.6 billion|
|Total Source of Collateral|$51.4 billion|
Pershing was lending out **three times more securities than it borrowed**, a net supplier of $17 billion in lendable inventory to the market.
# The Enforcement Record
FINRA has cited Pershing for Regulation SHO locate violations:
|Date|Fine|Violation|Detail|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Aug 2013**|**$68,500**|[**Reg SHO 203(b)(1)**](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/section-242.203)|Inadequate supervisory system for short sale locates from **non-U.S. registered broker-dealers**; failed to close out FTDs per Rule 204(a) in 3 instances|
|**Aug 2016**|**$19,500**|[**Reg SHO 203(b)(1)**](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/section-242.203)|Same locate violation, covering April–December 2013|
|**Aug 2024**|**$40,000,000**|Communication preservation|Text/WhatsApp at senior levels during 2021-2023 (SEC enforcement)|
The 2013 enforcement action is directly on point. Pershing was caught running an inadequate supervisory system for short sale locates specifically for **orders coming from non-U.S. registered broker-dealers**. This is the cross-border locate channel, foreign-domiciled entities obtaining locates from Pershing's U.S. inventory with reduced regulatory visibility.
Combined with the [Rule 204(a)](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/section-242.204) FTD close-out failures, this establishes a documented pattern: the same institution that operates the $25.6 billion securities lending book and the real-time locate facility has been cited for exactly the type of cross-border locate abuse that would enable offshore short positions.
The **$40 million communication destruction fine** (August 2024) covers the 2021-2023 period. Whatever was discussed on those unapproved messaging platforms during the squeeze and its aftermath is now unrecoverable.
*Source: FINRA BrokerCheck, CRD# 7560 (Pershing LLC).*
# 7. The Phantom Share Precedent
BNY Mellon's willingness and capability to create securities without underlying assets is not hypothetical. In December 2018, the SEC charged BNY Mellon with issuing **American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in thousands of pre-release transactions without underlying foreign shares**, effectively creating phantom securities.
* **Fine**: $54 million ($29.3M disgorgement + $20.5M penalty)
* **Mechanism**: BNY Mellon issued ADRs to brokers who neither owned nor controlled the underlying foreign shares. The pre-release brokers **falsely certified compliance** while lending away the ADRs without maintaining the required backing.
* **Effect**: Inflated total tradeable supply, facilitated inappropriate short selling and dividend arbitrage.
*Source:* [*SEC Release No. 34-84828*](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-300)*, December 17, 2018.*
The structural parallel is exact. The ADR pre-release mechanism created more tradeable units than underlying shares existed. The only difference between this and domestic phantom shares is the jurisdiction of the underlying security.
# 8. The Offshore Subsidiary
BNY Mellon Participações Ltda. controls **99.99%** of BNY Mellon Serviços Financeiros DTVM S.A. in Brazil. The DTVM entity administered **2,535 investment funds** registered with the Brazilian CVM, and every single one has been either cancelled (2,527) or placed in liquidation (8).
If BNY Mellon DTVM is no longer administering public funds, but BNY Mellon Participações still controls the entity, the question is what DTVM's remaining activities are. Services that don't require CVM fund registration, custody, derivatives, or inter-affiliate transactions, would be consistent with the entity's continued existence.
BNY Mellon offers OTC derivatives including **total return swaps (TRS)** for customized risk management. Brazil's CVM Resolution 175 (December 2022) allows Brazilian investment funds to invest **up to 100% of their portfolio in overseas assets**. The pieces for inter-affiliate derivative positions on U.S. equities, routed through a Brazilian legal entity, outside SEC jurisdiction, are structurally available.
*Source: Brazilian CVM Dados Abertos fund registry (CNPJ 02.201.501/0001-61); BNY Mellon OTC derivatives disclosure.*
# 9. The Federal Reserve Connection
Dreyfus Government Cash Management is a **listed counterparty** on the Federal Reserve's Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) facility. Between January 2021 and June 2022, money market funds collectively shifted **$2 trillion** into the ON RRP while simultaneously reducing private repo lending by $500 billion.
BNY Mellon controls both sides of this valve:
1. It **operates the Dreyfus funds** that lend to the ON RRP
2. It **serves as triparty agent** for the remaining private repos
3. It **provides the Global Collateral Platform** through which DTCC settlement operates
When the system needs cash to survive a macrocycle settlement pinch, BNY routes Dreyfus cash into private repos. When the system is flushed, BNY routes it to the Fed. The fact that Dreyfus private repos *increased* in late 2021 while the rest of the market was parking cash at the Fed demonstrates just how essential this specific cash pool was to sustaining prime broker liquidity during the meme stock aftermath.
# 10. The Complete Architecture
Here is the full system as documented across *The Failure Waterfall* and *The Shadow Ledger*:
|Layer|Mechanism|Source|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Cash generation**|Dreyfus MMF → $86B triparty repos|This post|
|**Collateral management**|BNY Mellon triparty agent + Global Collateral Platform|This post, Part 5|
|**Securities lending**|Pershing locate factory ($25.6B loaned, 3x borrowed)|This post|
|**Settlement waterfall**|15-node FTD cascade, T+6 to T+45|Failure Waterfall, Part 1|
|**Macrocycle**|LCM(6,13,35,10) = 2,730 bd → 682.5 bd harmonic|Failure Waterfall, Part 7|
|**ISDA margin**|BNY Mellon CSA charges for Citadel + Jane Street|Part 5|
|**Options circuit**|DMA algo resets margin snapshots (CC125, inverted-fee)|Failure Waterfall, Part 5|
|**Offshore route**|Brazil subsidiary (2,535 cancelled funds), ADR precedent|This post|
|**Crypto valve**|Emergency fiat liquidation under margin stress|Part 5|
|**Fed backstop**|ON RRP ↔ private repo liquidity valve|This post|
# Why It Matters
The settlement system is not merely a regulatory structure that oscillates due to mathematical properties (as documented in Part 7 of The Failure Waterfall). It oscillates on infrastructure *owned and operated by a single institution* that simultaneously generates the cash, manages the collateral, provides the locates, and operates the settlement layer. The resonance cavity is not an abstract mathematical construct. It is a physical system with an identifiable operator.
# The Fungibility of Cash
An adversarial reviewer will note, correctly, that just because BNY Mellon cleared $86 billion in repos and Citadel pledged $71 billion in collateral does not prove that *specific Dreyfus dollars* financed *specific GME shorts*. Cash is fungible. Citadel trades the entire market.
This critique is acknowledged, and it does not weaken the thesis. The argument is not that we can trace a specific dollar from a Dreyfus money market investor to a specific GME swap collateral posting. Market mechanics dictate that **peak macro-liquidity is required to sustain peak idiosyncratic risk.** By mapping the plumbing, from the N-MFP filings, through the triparty agent, to the clearing bank, to the settlement layer, this post has demonstrated:
1. **The capacity**, BNY Mellon's cash pool was large enough ($86B) to float the entire pledged collateral chain ($71B).
2. **The mechanism**, triparty repos flow directly from MMF to prime broker to market maker.
3. **The timing**, the cash pool expanded precisely when the ecosystem required peak liquidity, and the control test (Vanguard, r = +0.096) proves this expansion was idiosyncratic to BNY Mellon, not a macro artifact.
4. **The counter-trend behavior**, Dreyfus increased private repos while the rest of the industry parked $2 trillion at the Fed's ON RRP, demonstrating a specific, deliberate allocation choice.
We are not proving that *this dollar* went to *that trade.* We are proving that the institution that controls the cash generation, collateral management, trade clearing, position custody, and settlement infrastructure expanded its aggregate liquidity pool **exactly when the ecosystem required peak liquidity to survive**, and that this expansion is statistically uncorrelated with the behavior of a comparable non-BNY fund.
# What Would Falsify This
1. **~~If the Dreyfus repo expansion is explained by general market liquidity growth.~~** **TESTED.** The Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund control test (§4) shows r = +0.096 (p = 0.619) with GME FTDs vs. Dreyfus r = -0.423 (p = 0.022). Dreyfus grew +179% while Vanguard grew +40%. The repo expansion is institution-specific, not macro-driven.
2. **If the FTD-repo negative correlation dissolves under additional controls.** Adding macro variables (VIX, SOFR, Treasury yields, ON RRP usage) as controls could reduce the Dreyfus-specific signal. If the negative correlation persists after controlling for macro liquidity, the institution-specific interpretation strengthens.
3. **If Citadel's pledged collateral is unrelated to BNY Mellon's triparty system.** If Citadel's clearing bank for pledged collateral is not BNY Mellon (but rather JPMorgan exclusively), the December 2021 sync is coincidental.
4. **If the 2013 FINRA AWC names non-U.S. broker-dealers unconnected to BNY Mellon's offshore subsidiaries.** A FOIA request for the unredacted Pershing AWC would reveal the specific entities. If they are European or Asian firms with no connection to Brazil, the offshore locate thesis weakens.
# Data & Code
|Resource|Link|
|:-|:-|
|Dreyfus repo time series|[`dreyfus_repo_timeseries.csv`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|Accommodation timeline|[`accommodation_timeline.csv`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|Vanguard control data|[`vanguard_nmfp_parsed.json`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|Control analysis results|[`control_mmf_analysis.json`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|Research notes|[`research_notes.md`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|Full data & analysis|[`dreyfus_connection/`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/code)|
|FTD data (all tickers)|[`data/ftd/`](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/tree/main/data/ftd)|
|Full paper (Paper IX)|[Boundary Conditions (PDF)](https://github.com/TheGameStopsNow/research/blob/main/papers/Boundary%20Conditions-%20Settlement%20Stress%20Propagation%2C%20Obligation%20Migration%2C%20and%20Cross-Market%20Contagion%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Clearing%20Infrastructure.pdf?raw=1)|
*Not financial advice. Forensic research using public data. I'm not a financial advisor, attorney, or affiliated with any entity named in this post, including BNY Mellon, Dreyfus, Pershing, or the SEC. The author holds a long position in GME.*
# The Shadow Ledger
|Part|Title|
|:-|:-|
|[1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl2vtu/the_shadow_ledger_part_1_the_fake_locates/)|The Fake Locates|
|[2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl2vwu/the_shadow_ledger_part_2_the_derivative_paper/)|The Derivative Paper Trail|
|[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl3nv4/the_shadow_ledger_part_3_the_ouroboros/)|The Ouroboros|
|[4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl2x5e/the_shadow_ledger_part_4_the_reflexive_trap/)|The Reflexive Trap|
|[5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl2x8i/the_shadow_ledger_part_5_the_bridge/)|The Bridge|
|**6**|**The Cash Engine** ← you are here|
|[7](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl4m0e/the_shadow_ledger_part_7_the_fingerprint/)|The Fingerprint|
|[📋](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl3q1y/the_shadow_ledger_summary_post/)|Summary Post|
⬅️ **Previous:** [Part 5: The Bridge](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl2x8i/the_shadow_ledger_part_5_the_bridge/) ➡️ **Next:** [Part 7: The Fingerprint](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1rl4m0e/the_shadow_ledger_part_7_the_fingerprint/)
sentiment -0.99
21 hr ago • u/thewaterb0yyyy • r/wallstreetbets • what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_march_05_2026 • C
I cashed out a small win on ET calls. Now I’m betting the uncertainty over the straight of Hormuz breaks us out of this range to the downside
sentiment 0.59
21 hr ago • u/FidelityBrian • r/fidelityinvestments • inherited_ira_10_year_rule_mra_question • C
Thank you for reaching out, u/garynuke. I appreciate you being part of our community, and I’m happy to address your questions about your Inherited IRA required minimum distribution (RMD).
As it seems you’re already aware, many rules apply to inherited IRA accounts, especially when it comes to RMDs. Your relationship to the original owner, the original owner's age, when they passed, and whether they were already taking distributions are just a few of the details you need to consider when reviewing your choices.
With that in mind, the RMD amounts are not set to liquidate the account in a set time period. That’s the responsibility of the account owner. We do send a reminder each August to clients with inherited retirement accounts to begin taking their RMDs and to inform them of any withdrawal requirements that may apply to these distributions.
I'm including two helpful resources below that go over the RMD rules for inherited IRAs to be aware of:
[Managing RMDs for inherited IRAs](https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/inherited-ira-rmd)
[Inherited IRA Withdrawals](https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/inherited-ira-rmd)
Due to the complexity of these accounts, you may also consider contacting our Retirements team with questions about calculating the RMD or any other account-related questions. They specialize in more complex IRA situations and can help further. They're available Monday through Friday, 8:00 a.m.–8:30 p.m. ET.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
It would also be wise to consult with a tax professional regarding tax strategies and the best ways to liquidate your account.
Thanks again for reaching out to us here on Reddit. We're always happy to provide info and point you in the right direction. Feel free to let us know if you have any additional questions. Have a great day!
sentiment 0.99
21 hr ago • u/FidelityAshly • r/fidelityinvestments • stop_asking_existing_customers_to_open_an_account • C
Certainly, u/simulationoverload! I appreciate the additional details here.
We have received similar reports of this issue, and our development teams are aware. While we don't have an ETA on a resolution, I'd like to offer a few troubleshooting steps for you to try in the meantime:
1. Ensure your mobile device has the latest operating system.
2. Complete a full power cycle of your device (turn it entirely off & back on again.)
3. Try a different device on a different connection, i.e., a mobile network instead of Wi-Fi
If the issue persists, we recommend reaching out to our Technical Support team so they can continue to troubleshoot the issue with you. Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Please say "technical support" when prompted by the automated system to be connected to the right group.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
Please let us know if there's anything we can help with. Thank you for choosing Fidelity, and I hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
sentiment 0.99
22 hr ago • u/FidelityAdamW • r/fidelityinvestments • how_to_sell_buy_in_the_same_day_if_possible • C
Hello there, u/johnnyg08. I'm happy to provide you with information on trading mutual funds today.
To get right to it, mutual fund trades execute once a day after 4 p.m. ET. Any trades entered for mutual funds will be completed based on the next available net asset value (NAV). In the example from your comments, you would need to place the trade to sell your mutual fund before the 4 p.m. cutoff, and then purchase Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) shares the following business day when the funds will be available.
The ability to trade intraday will depend on when trades execute for different types of securities. For example, stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) trade throughout the day. You can find this information, as well as additional comparisons of these security types, at the link below.
[Understanding how mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks trade](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/trading/trading-differences-mutual-funds-stocks-etfs)
If there is anything else we can clarify for you, please don't hesitate to let us know. Have a great rest of your day!
sentiment 0.97
23 hr ago • u/spicermatthews • r/options • 0dte_opening_range_breakout_strategy_on_spy_full • B
I've been backtesting a 0DTE Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy on SPY and wanted to share the full results with all the data so you can evaluate it yourself.
\*\*The Strategy\*\*
- Watch the first 5 minutes of trading (9:30–9:35 AM ET) and mark the high and low — that's your opening range
- When SPY breaks above the high, buy an ATM 0DTE call. When it breaks below the low, buy an ATM 0DTE put
- Only take the first breakout of the day — one trade max per day
- Flat $500 per trade, every time
- Trade only Monday, Wednesday, Friday
\*\*Exit Rules\*\*
- Profit target: +100% (option price doubles)
- Stop loss: -50%
- Time stop: Close everything by 3:30 PM ET
\*\*Overall Results (303 trades)\*\*
- Net profit: +$14,861 on a $25K account (+59.4%)
- Win rate: 41.3% (125 wins / 178 losses)
- Average win: $417.66 | Average loss: $209.82
- Payoff ratio: \~2:1
- Profit factor: 1.40
- Max drawdown: 7.6% ($2,611)
- Average trade duration: 92 minutes
\*\*How Trades Exited\*\*
- 120 trades hit the profit target (all wins, +$51,599)
- 174 trades hit the stop loss (all losses, -$37,184)
- Only 9 trades reached the 3:30 PM time stop (+$446)
97% of trades resolved decisively via the profit target or stop loss.
\*\*Calls vs. Puts\*\*
- Calls (upside breakouts): 175 trades, 40.6% win rate, +$7,454
- Puts (downside breakouts): 128 trades, 42.2% win rate, +$7,406
Nearly identical P&L — the strategy is effectively direction-neutral.
\*\*Day of Week Breakdown\*\*
- Monday: 97 trades, 42.3% win rate, +$5,348
- Wednesday: 103 trades, 41.8% win rate, +$5,155
- Friday: 103 trades, 39.8% win rate, +$4,356
Tuesday and Thursday were excluded after testing showed they diluted the edge.
\*\*Yearly Breakdown\*\*
- 2024: 130 trades, +$7,389
- 2025: 149 trades, +$4,444
- 2026 (partial, \~2 months): 24 trades, +$3,027
Had 6 losing months out of 27 total. Largest monthly loss was under $900.
\*\*Why 5 Minutes Instead of 15?\*\*
Most ORB literature uses a 15- or 30-minute opening range. I tested multiple durations:
- 5 min: +$13,792 profit, 7.6% max drawdown
- 10 min: +$9,415, 9.2% drawdown
- 15 min: +$7,312, 10.8% drawdown
- 30 min: +$4,221, 12.1% drawdown
The 5-minute window nearly doubled the returns of the 15-minute window while cutting drawdown almost in half. Shorter ranges catch moves earlier and reduce theta decay impact on 0DTE options.
\*\*The Overfitting Trap\*\*
This was the most interesting finding. I optimized individual parameters (tighter stops, entry buffers, etc.) and each one looked great in isolation. But when I combined them all:
- Simple version (5m + MWF): +$13,792, 7.6% drawdown
- All "best" parameters combined: +$5,710, 12.1% drawdown
The most optimized version performed worse than the simplest version. Classic curve-fitting — each parameter was fitting to historical noise rather than capturing a real edge.
\*\*Important Caveats\*\*
- Bid/ask spreads not included — could reduce returns 10-20%
- No commissions or slippage modeled
- Limited history — daily 0DTE SPY options only launched mid-2023
- Max drawdown looks small but the sample may not capture extreme volatility events
\*\*Technical Notes\*\*
- Backtest built in Go using real 1-minute option bar data (not Black-Scholes theoretical prices)
- Conservative same-bar handling — if both the profit target and stop loss could trigger in the same 1-minute bar, it takes the loss
- No lookahead bias
\*\*Key Takeaway\*\*
A 2:1 payoff ratio only needs a 34% win rate to break even. At 41.3%, this strategy creates a small but consistent edge. The biggest lesson was that simplicity beat optimization — every attempt to "improve" the strategy actually degraded it. Moving to paper trading next before considering real money.
Happy to answer any questions about the methodology or data.
sentiment 0.99
23 hr ago • u/FidelityAdamW • r/fidelityinvestments • log_in_issues_today_anyone • C
Thank you for providing the screenshot, u/BeachBum528.
As an additional troubleshooting step to what I've already provided, please temporarily disable any 3rd-party password management tools you may have active. Once you've tried these troubleshooting steps, if your issues persist, we recommend contacting our Technical Support team. Associates are available Monday through Friday, from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Just say "Technical Support" when prompted by the automated assistant to be connected with the proper group.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
If there is anything else we can help you with, please don't hesitate to let us know.
sentiment 0.97
24 hr ago • u/apricotR • r/fidelityinvestments • how_to_sell_buy_in_the_same_day_if_possible • C
If you are buying another mutual fund, don't "sell" in the ticket, do an "exchange" in the ticket. Mutual funds are priced after market close and then the fund orders are executed. I usually see my fund activity around 9 PM ET or so. Edit: Yes, you can sell part of your position.
sentiment 0.38


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