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That 9:30 ET break lines up with US equities open, crypto has tracked the Nasdaq tick for tick all quarter so the selling was coming straight off the stock tape. Check perp funding at that exact minute, if it flipped negative as the wick printed then spot selling dragged perps down and it wasn't longs getting flushed first.

Sold a bunch of real estate that was bought pre-pandemic for some healthy profits and invested it. Top ETFs are OMAH, SPYI, QQQI, MLPI, IWMI, IYRI (yes I love NEOS), OVL, GPIX, along with MAIN, ARCC, PDI, ET and several others.

Hi, I am a short-term investor doing momentum, growth and value investing. Which is the best source of news? Considering ET prime. I see tjat MoneyControl is leading in trading market. But I don't do Intra-day trading. Which one will you recommend?

Based on your screenshot and the troubleshooting steps you've already tried, we recommend contacting our Technical Support team next. They are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. [Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Please let us know if there's anything else we may help with in the meantime.

TLDR: **Across all three reports, a "Black Monday" crash is unlikely** (15%–40% odds of a 3%+ weekly drop), cushioned by calm credit spreads, heavy put hedging, and 85% of S&P 500 buybacks reopening. While one report sees an 85% chance Thursday’s $732.71 SPY low holds on exhausted CTA shorts, the other two expect weak breadth and backwardated VIX futures (spot 25.64) to force a retest of the 200-day moving average at $723–$730 (7,250–7,325 SPX). Everything hinges on Tuesday’s CPI and $125B in Treasury auctions: holding $723–$730 and reclaiming $742–$752 confirms a bottom, while closing below $723 (VIX >28.18) targets $704–$715. Maybe the AIs copped out with the most statistically likely outcome. The prompt (with deep research skill): use all your ai intelligence and go on the internet and deep research if this coming monday/week is a big selloff or the lows for $spy are mostly in for the rest of the year ChatGPT Pro (took 2 minutes): For November 9–13, the report estimates 45% odds of further downside, 35% odds of a rebound, and 20% odds of sideways trading—so further weakness is the largest single scenario, but a major selloff is not the base case; it assigns roughly 40% odds to a significant selloff, defined as about a 3% decline from Friday’s close or a decisive break below $730, with these being judgmental estimates rather than statistically validated probabilities. Pasted text The key is SPY $730–733: holding that area and reclaiming $742, then $752–755, would favor a rebound, whereas closing below $730 with rising volatility and worsening breadth would increase the risk of $710–720; the report identifies Tuesday’s CPI as the main catalyst that could shift those odds. [https://pastebin.com/qi618xcL](https://pastebin.com/qi618xcL) Claude Opus 5.5 Extra (10 minutes): Next week most likely brings a retest of the low, not a crash. I put about 85% on SPX trading below Thursday’s 7,353.73 closing low, about 75% on it touching the 200-day at 7,325, and about 45% on a drop to the 7,250 support floor. My base case (about 65%) is a weekly close between 7,155 and 7,508 after a dip into 7,250–7,330 that holds. I put about 15% on a real selloff, meaning a weekly close 3% or more below Friday at 7,155 or under, and about 10% on SPX reaching correction territory at about 7,037. On the upside, I put about 20% on a squeeze that closes the week above 7,508, because trend funds keep selling until about 7,544 and options hedges don’t unwind until after the Nov 18 VIX expiry and Nov 20 monthly expiry. Tuesday’s CPI at 14:30 Berlin decides which way it goes: core at 0.3% or higher raises the selloff odds to about 25%, and core at 0.2% cuts them to about 8%. A daily close below 7,250 (ES about 7,271) with VIX above 28.18 would move the odds of a big selloff to about 50%, with 7,082–7,155 as the next targets. A close above 7,508 (ES about 7,529) would mean Nov 5 was probably the low for the year. [https://pastebin.com/pBwcbaQ7](https://pastebin.com/pBwcbaQ7) Gemini Argon High (10+ minutes): For the week of November 9–13, 2026, there is an 85% combined probability that SPY holds its structural footing and avoids a cascading selloff from Friday's $735.29 close, split between a 55% base-case probability of two-way consolidation and a rebound toward $745.67–$752.00, a 30% bull-case probability of a rapid short-covering squeeze toward $754.00–$758.00, and only a 15% bear-case probability of a breakdown below the 200-day moving average ($727.60–$730.00) toward $716.00–$723.43. Monday, November 9 strongly favors stabilization and an early bounce ($733.50–$745.67) because there are no major U.S. macroeconomic releases scheduled, systematic trend-followers (CTAs) are already maxed out on the short side at negative 3.3 standard deviations, and 85% of S&P 500 companies exit their earnings blackout windows to resume executing a record $1.5 trillion in year-to-date buyback authorizations. The week's directional outcome will hinge on Tuesday’s 8:30 AM ET October CPI report and the U.S. Treasury’s $125 billion refunding auctions across Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday (around Wednesday's Veterans Day bond market closure): an in-line or cooler Core CPI print that keeps the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.95%–5.00% should fuel a recovery toward the upper end of the options-implied weekly range (plus or minus $16.44 to $19.01), whereas a hot inflation surprise (0.4% or higher month-over-month) combined with weak bond auction demand is the primary catalyst capable of forcing a retest of Thursday’s $732.71 panic low and the $720.00–$730.00 institutional support floor. [https://pastebin.com/0TD4sE8T](https://pastebin.com/0TD4sE8T)

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **OXY** ▲ | $60.00 (above) | $56.42 | $56.70 | +6.3% | Thu 10:09 PM ET |

Pot: 1,266 ALGO (\~$120). Draws today around 3:30 PM ET. $0.25 a ticket, pick 5 of 36, pay with ALGO or USDC. No wallet connection. [https://www.algoroll.com/lottery](https://www.algoroll.com/lottery) Built on Algorand That's how we Roll

ET money

**Day 11 in the books!** **(Please see at bottom for answers to common quick questions - updated stats)** **All of this is for you guys. I'm an open book!** Rough one. Primary -24.2R, nearly all of it from one 10-minute burst of semis shorts. Major glitch today. Really looking forward to a few  **Changes before today:** * No setup or rule changes. Fixes only: the account halt + per-setup stops now survive a run restart, and every dollar figure = Alpaca. **Today:** **Primary** \-$1,238.60 with MTUM / -$1,057.07 without · Running total since Day 1 (10/23): **-$13,848.44** with MTUM / **-$2,210.60** without **Milestones:** M1 (3 green days in a row) 0/3 · M2 (8 of last 10 green) 4/10 * MTUM: a broker paper glitch. Alpaca booked a fake 1:4 split on 11/5 (phantom -183 sh short, about -$11.5k on 11/5, -$181.53 more today until flattened at 3:55). Reported to Alpaca; MCF's orders were clean. **What went wrong today:** * \-21.6R: Early Sellers, Mid-High RSI (all day), 28 trades. 23 semis-heavy shorts 10:30-10:40, stopped out together 10:44-10:52 as SPY went from +0.45% to +0.86%. * \-5.5R: Early Sellers, Strong Heat (all day), 14 trades, same tape. * **Same failure as yesterday: one sector, one direction, one squeeze.** * The shorts already open when the halt hit just bled to their stops. * GitHub's scheduler was down this morning, so trading was started by hand at 8:49 and Hunch at 9:49. **How we're fixing it:** * This weekend: a targeted remedy for these bursts, reported setup by setup (who improves, who gets worse). * Monday: a full Primary reevaluation with rolling rules. Nothing live without my sign-off. **What's helped before:** * The -2R per-setup stop latched both Early Sellers setups, then the -20R account stop halted Primary at 10:55. Zero entries after, 92 signals blocked. * The halt held through the 2:38 run restart (the restart fix, PR #152, working live). * \+23.3R: Morning Bounce Fade (Graveyard), the old Primary setup, had its best day. Funny how that works. **Quick update:** * Testing 2's top-500 trial, day 3: -2.0R on 165 trades vs Testing 1 at +3.6R on 92 (-0.01R vs +0.04R a trade). * Setup Generator paused for now: overcrowding, too many setups competing for trades, so the existing ones get a fair test first. **Things I am also working on:** * **"Hunch":** Basic tool that runs 10s of thousands of guess each day on 3 minute bars, predicting the next. Just bars. * **Market Compass:** Reads every 15 minutes where the market moved and where it's heading. Today's 10:44 squeeze is exactly the kind of turn it needs to catch. * **Claude's Team, day 1:** as of 2:22 PM, Team -0.70R vs Primary -26.6R. It skipped both Early Sellers setups. Final numbers tonight (shadow, no orders). **Setup streak facts:** Counted on traded sessions - a session a setup didn't trade is skipped. R after costs. * Green: Gap-Down Early Bounce Short (all day) (Testing 1) - 5 traded sessions in a row, +38.6R * Green: Morning Bounce Fade (Graveyard) - 3 traded sessions in a row, +28.4R * Green: Gap-Down Recovery Fade (all day) - 3 traded sessions in a row, +4.9R * Red: Failed Prior-Day-Low Break Long (0.05 ATR, low volume) \[fill\] - 12 traded sessions in a row, -61.6R * Red: Early Sellers, Mid-High RSI (all day) - 3 traded sessions in a row, -29.8R **Quick answers to common questions:** * Claude (Opus 5.5) - Python * Alpaca API, paper trading, SIP market data (all US exchanges). * US stocks + ETFs, intraday only (9:50 AM-3:55 PM ET), long and short, nothing held overnight. * Setups built by basic indicators: RSI, VWAP, volume / buy-sell pressure, gaps, opening range, prior-day highs/lows, ATR. * Setup Generator - A bot that invented 10 new setups a night (at least 5 long) and trades them on its own paper account. New concept: setups built randomly from random indicators. Paused after 10/28 so the existing ones get tested first. * Setup Life Cycle - Idea or generator -> 2-yr backtest (costs in) -> test through replay sessions (20+ of them) -> Testing (paper) -> Primary (paper) -> real money after the milestones. Losers move down to the Graveyard, never deleted. * Promoted / Demoted - Promoted = a setup moves up a level after earning it. Demoted = it moves down a level and keeps proving itself on paper there. * Avg R - Average result per trade in units of the risk taken, after costs, fees and slippage (factored in already). * Break-even win rate - Win rate a setup needs just to not lose money. * Avg R w/o best day - Same, with its single best session removed - spots records carried by one big day. * Accounts were meant to start at $100k; they could not be reset during earlier testing without conflicts, so some accounts started in a deficit * **16,618 closed trades** across 24 sessions (10/6 to 11/6)(Not including replays and backtesting) * **187 different setups** have traded live. * **140,000+** setups/variations of setups proven unworthy for advancement. Been an interesting ride so far. Thanks for the help! Fun stuff!

Nine trades a month is a reasonable number, and it's also why this can't be judged from the P&L yet. At that size one good week is your whole month, so the version where you took every setup and the version where you skipped half look identical until you have a year of both. What makes intuition testable is a timestamp. Write the skip down while you skip it — the level you'd have entered, the stop, the target, and the hour — then mark it at the horizon you'd have held. Two months of that gives you a shadow book you can subtract from the real one. Without it, the skips you remember working are only the ones that worked. One cost detail belongs in that book: on gold the round trip isn't the commission, it's the spread at the hour you take it. The same setup at 9:30 ET and at 3pm ET are two different trades after costs, and the 3pm one is usually the one that lands in the bucket you're calling unqualified. Filter by hour before you filter by feel. Where I'd push on the 100% language: a setup can fit perfectly and still be the wrong trade, which means what you have is a shape, not a measurement. What's the net on those nine a month, and are the good months the ones with the fewest trades?

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **QQQ** | $720.00 (above) | $656.86 | +9.6% | Fri, Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $700.00 (below) | $736.06 | -4.9% | Fri, Nov 13, 7:51 PM ET |

Happy to share insight into this. If you are assigned, you will see it reflected in your account no later than 8:30 a.m. ET, the business day following exercise or expiration. However, you may receive a notification sooner. It's also worth noting that it is common industry practice among brokerage firms to automatically exercise in-the-money (ITM) contracts if they are at least $0.01 in the money on expiration. However, the holder could choose not to exercise, in which case your contract would expire. Please let us know if there is anything else we can help you with. *Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the [Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.](https://www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/options-disclosure-document) Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.*

Thanks, that helps. One follow-up so I can plan the call: if the notice shows up only at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, is there still time to call before settlement posts, or does settlement land at a fixed time that morning? I'm on Pacific time, so this decides whether I plan a weekend call or a 5:30 a.m. one.

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $149.00 (below) | $755.72 | $735.79 | -80.3% | Sun 10:48 PM ET | | **Record** | 2W - 2L | 50% | - | - | - |

Yeah you can dip below through the day but you need $2000 free cash by 9:30 ET to be allowed to make opening trades that day.  The ads are all for Webull stuff at least, but it's extremely spammy (multiple times a day: add a friend and get $$$, make THIS kind of account and get a fractional share), and honestly it's a bit confusing figuring out what you have trading permissions for and what you don't. And a lot of their instructions are outdated. I think it's sort of a get-what-you-pay-for thing. I joined because I wanted to test out automated trading but it seemed so buggy trying to set up, I gave up on it. Robinhood's much clunkier for daytrading but I didn't have any technical issues, or  complaints besides it (like webull) trying to get me into betting. The automation worked beautifully but they don't let you do short legs with it yet, so I moved on for now, though they said they're developing it. If you do options, you can also only do up to two legs in a trade. And I can't remember about the Webull margin situation. Non-options only of course if so. Schwab gives the most leverage of all of them I believe if you just plan to buy or short stocks, but I may be wrong about that.

I appreciate you reaching out and providing the steps you've taken so far to troubleshoot this. Since you've already tried clearing the cache and storage, I'll outline the next steps below. 1. Ensure your phone and the mobile app are up-to-date 2. Use another internet connection to see if your experience is consistent 3. Delete and redownload the app for a fresh install After trying these steps, if you are still experiencing issues, please get in touch with a member of our Technical Support team. Associates are available to help Monday through Friday, from 8:30 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. ET. Just say "Technical Support" when calling in to be connected. [Contact Us ](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Please let us know if there is anything else we can help you with.

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $610.78 (below) | $735.88 | -17.0% | Fri, Nov 27, 4:28 PM ET |

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SOXL** ▲ | $100.00 (above) | $45.19 | $45.57 | +121.3% | Thu, Nov 26, 3:28 PM ET | | **Record** | 1W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |

I bought some ET for this reason earlier this year, but I am getting bored withy it

Fair points, and I agree with all three. On the sample: with today's report it's 7 of 11, which with 11 events is consistent with anything from roughly 35% to 85%. The 12 of 209 normal days is the tight number (roughly 3% to 10%), so the gap is real enough to test, not real enough to trust yet. on inheritance: agreed, so the rule should cover the morning, not the 9 o'clock hour. So here it is, written down today (Nov 6), before any new data: on NFP days, treat USDJPY 8:30 to 10:00 ET as one window. Flat, or half size with stops sized for event-day ranges, not normal-day ones. Test: from the December report on, I'll post the 8-10 ET range for each NFP next to the same window on normal weekdays. If the NFP window is more than 2x normal in at least 4 of the next 6 reports, the rule stays. If 3 or more come in near normal, like today's did, it goes. Same 10 reports can't find it and confirm it, as you said. Fresh ones can.

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 1W - 5L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $750.00 (above) | $737.74 | +1.7% | Fri, Nov 13, 1:39 PM ET |

23% profit. Total profit below. I missed yesterday entry as I was in meetings. Well, it happens and it was not in my curent plan to ride the candles anyway. Time to ride the Santa sleigh has not yet come. Hope you are happy, I went through all previous posts and added the sums for you. I don't track my profit on nice calandar, I find it waste of my time as I focus on the chart and trade and then go back to my goal of laziness 🐇 Total $999 |Day|Little Profit $| |:-|:-| |10|110| |9|200| |8|100| |7|125| |6|120| |5|70| |4|82| |3|52| |2|60| |1|80| The big moves always comes on ETFs, either up or down. If you have been trading with a few contracts and profitable, you can decide to risk it. However, if you only focus on big moves and to catch these only, well, you probably will get your empty account handed back to you every day 🤷🏻‍♂️ I can trade SPY, QQQ but I am not doing it as IWM fit my current Christmas trading, I am sure you noticed the time, premium prices I do and with the big moves, the premiums are more expensive. If you are unsure, sit on your hands. I need money for Christmas gifts. No one is going to give me for free, I am not so beautiful. I started with a $250 account, aiming to reach $5k profit in 50 day/trades. You saw on many of my previous post I was growing another small account. Hope you get inspired. Life is short. I will try post the trades. Simple options strategy, no wheel, iron condors etc. Using simple EMAs, VWAP etc to see the trends, levels calculations. Trade: 5 contracts = $110 total profit. Total options cost = $490 23 % profit Time in Trade : 7 min. Not bad morning glory at all 🤤 $10 per contract per day, it makes a huge difference with time. Don't be greedy every time. My trading plan and strategy is trading one trade a day, 2-5 times a week depending on availability. If you are learning by yourself, give it 2-3 months to see how you are progressing. If you believe I am lucky every day with the trades and posts 🤷🏻‍♂️ so be it. I believe I have no choice, I put in the effort and keep doing, any loss is my loss as it is me executing my own trades and money. I only day trade options on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc. Timestamp on the broker is UK time. So, entry time of 3.43 is 10.43 ET. I trade on my phone, screenshot is from TastyTrade. EMA 200 and VWAP on the screenshot for TradingView

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **RDDT** ▲ | $200.00 (above) | $156.93 | $94.89 | +27.4% | Wed 12:20 PM ET |

The 9:30 ET clock-hit is the part that actually matches what I have watched on dump days. Quiet overnight candles, then volume jumps the moment US cash opens — that pattern has shown up enough times this year that treating Asia hours as the whole story is a bad habit. Where I push back is the leap from same-day beta to "crypto is just a leveraged Nasdaq forever." In a liquidity squeeze desks sell whatever has a 24/7 book to raise cash, so correlations go to 1 for a session or a week. That is stress plumbing, not a permanent identity. Multi-month paths can still diverge once the forced selling is done. Practical bit for me is boring: size for the session that moves you. Leverage that feels fine at 3am UTC is a different animal in the first 90 minutes of US equities. That half of the post is the useful warning 👀