ET
Energy Transfer LP Common Units
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ET money

**Day 11 in the books!** **(Please see at bottom for answers to common quick questions - updated stats)** **All of this is for you guys. I'm an open book!** Rough one. Primary -24.2R, nearly all of it from one 10-minute burst of semis shorts. Major glitch today. Really looking forward to a few  **Changes before today:** * No setup or rule changes. Fixes only: the account halt + per-setup stops now survive a run restart, and every dollar figure = Alpaca. **Today:** **Primary** \-$1,238.60 with MTUM / -$1,057.07 without · Running total since Day 1 (10/23): **-$13,848.44** with MTUM / **-$2,210.60** without **Milestones:** M1 (3 green days in a row) 0/3 · M2 (8 of last 10 green) 4/10 * MTUM: a broker paper glitch. Alpaca booked a fake 1:4 split on 11/5 (phantom -183 sh short, about -$11.5k on 11/5, -$181.53 more today until flattened at 3:55). Reported to Alpaca; MCF's orders were clean. **What went wrong today:** * \-21.6R: Early Sellers, Mid-High RSI (all day), 28 trades. 23 semis-heavy shorts 10:30-10:40, stopped out together 10:44-10:52 as SPY went from +0.45% to +0.86%. * \-5.5R: Early Sellers, Strong Heat (all day), 14 trades, same tape. * **Same failure as yesterday: one sector, one direction, one squeeze.** * The shorts already open when the halt hit just bled to their stops. * GitHub's scheduler was down this morning, so trading was started by hand at 8:49 and Hunch at 9:49. **How we're fixing it:** * This weekend: a targeted remedy for these bursts, reported setup by setup (who improves, who gets worse). * Monday: a full Primary reevaluation with rolling rules. Nothing live without my sign-off. **What's helped before:** * The -2R per-setup stop latched both Early Sellers setups, then the -20R account stop halted Primary at 10:55. Zero entries after, 92 signals blocked. * The halt held through the 2:38 run restart (the restart fix, PR #152, working live). * \+23.3R: Morning Bounce Fade (Graveyard), the old Primary setup, had its best day. Funny how that works. **Quick update:** * Testing 2's top-500 trial, day 3: -2.0R on 165 trades vs Testing 1 at +3.6R on 92 (-0.01R vs +0.04R a trade). * Setup Generator paused for now: overcrowding, too many setups competing for trades, so the existing ones get a fair test first. **Things I am also working on:** * **"Hunch":** Basic tool that runs 10s of thousands of guess each day on 3 minute bars, predicting the next. Just bars. * **Market Compass:** Reads every 15 minutes where the market moved and where it's heading. Today's 10:44 squeeze is exactly the kind of turn it needs to catch. * **Claude's Team, day 1:** as of 2:22 PM, Team -0.70R vs Primary -26.6R. It skipped both Early Sellers setups. Final numbers tonight (shadow, no orders). **Setup streak facts:** Counted on traded sessions - a session a setup didn't trade is skipped. R after costs. * Green: Gap-Down Early Bounce Short (all day) (Testing 1) - 5 traded sessions in a row, +38.6R * Green: Morning Bounce Fade (Graveyard) - 3 traded sessions in a row, +28.4R * Green: Gap-Down Recovery Fade (all day) - 3 traded sessions in a row, +4.9R * Red: Failed Prior-Day-Low Break Long (0.05 ATR, low volume) \[fill\] - 12 traded sessions in a row, -61.6R * Red: Early Sellers, Mid-High RSI (all day) - 3 traded sessions in a row, -29.8R **Quick answers to common questions:** * Claude (Opus 5.5) - Python * Alpaca API, paper trading, SIP market data (all US exchanges). * US stocks + ETFs, intraday only (9:50 AM-3:55 PM ET), long and short, nothing held overnight. * Setups built by basic indicators: RSI, VWAP, volume / buy-sell pressure, gaps, opening range, prior-day highs/lows, ATR. * Setup Generator - A bot that invented 10 new setups a night (at least 5 long) and trades them on its own paper account. New concept: setups built randomly from random indicators. Paused after 10/28 so the existing ones get tested first. * Setup Life Cycle - Idea or generator -> 2-yr backtest (costs in) -> test through replay sessions (20+ of them) -> Testing (paper) -> Primary (paper) -> real money after the milestones. Losers move down to the Graveyard, never deleted. * Promoted / Demoted - Promoted = a setup moves up a level after earning it. Demoted = it moves down a level and keeps proving itself on paper there. * Avg R - Average result per trade in units of the risk taken, after costs, fees and slippage (factored in already). * Break-even win rate - Win rate a setup needs just to not lose money. * Avg R w/o best day - Same, with its single best session removed - spots records carried by one big day. * Accounts were meant to start at $100k; they could not be reset during earlier testing without conflicts, so some accounts started in a deficit * **16,618 closed trades** across 24 sessions (10/6 to 11/6)(Not including replays and backtesting) * **187 different setups** have traded live. * **140,000+** setups/variations of setups proven unworthy for advancement. Been an interesting ride so far. Thanks for the help! Fun stuff!

Nine trades a month is a reasonable number, and it's also why this can't be judged from the P&L yet. At that size one good week is your whole month, so the version where you took every setup and the version where you skipped half look identical until you have a year of both. What makes intuition testable is a timestamp. Write the skip down while you skip it — the level you'd have entered, the stop, the target, and the hour — then mark it at the horizon you'd have held. Two months of that gives you a shadow book you can subtract from the real one. Without it, the skips you remember working are only the ones that worked. One cost detail belongs in that book: on gold the round trip isn't the commission, it's the spread at the hour you take it. The same setup at 9:30 ET and at 3pm ET are two different trades after costs, and the 3pm one is usually the one that lands in the bucket you're calling unqualified. Filter by hour before you filter by feel. Where I'd push on the 100% language: a setup can fit perfectly and still be the wrong trade, which means what you have is a shape, not a measurement. What's the net on those nine a month, and are the good months the ones with the fewest trades?

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **QQQ** | $720.00 (above) | $656.86 | +9.6% | Fri, Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET |

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $700.00 (below) | $736.06 | -4.9% | Fri, Nov 13, 7:51 PM ET |

Happy to share insight into this. If you are assigned, you will see it reflected in your account no later than 8:30 a.m. ET, the business day following exercise or expiration. However, you may receive a notification sooner. It's also worth noting that it is common industry practice among brokerage firms to automatically exercise in-the-money (ITM) contracts if they are at least $0.01 in the money on expiration. However, the holder could choose not to exercise, in which case your contract would expire. Please let us know if there is anything else we can help you with. *Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the [Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.](https://www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/options-disclosure-document) Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.*

Thanks, that helps. One follow-up so I can plan the call: if the notice shows up only at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, is there still time to call before settlement posts, or does settlement land at a fixed time that morning? I'm on Pacific time, so this decides whether I plan a weekend call or a 5:30 a.m. one.

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $149.00 (below) | $755.72 | $735.79 | -80.3% | Sun 10:48 PM ET | | **Record** | 2W - 2L | 50% | - | - | - |

Yeah you can dip below through the day but you need $2000 free cash by 9:30 ET to be allowed to make opening trades that day.  The ads are all for Webull stuff at least, but it's extremely spammy (multiple times a day: add a friend and get $$$, make THIS kind of account and get a fractional share), and honestly it's a bit confusing figuring out what you have trading permissions for and what you don't. And a lot of their instructions are outdated. I think it's sort of a get-what-you-pay-for thing. I joined because I wanted to test out automated trading but it seemed so buggy trying to set up, I gave up on it. Robinhood's much clunkier for daytrading but I didn't have any technical issues, or  complaints besides it (like webull) trying to get me into betting. The automation worked beautifully but they don't let you do short legs with it yet, so I moved on for now, though they said they're developing it. If you do options, you can also only do up to two legs in a trade. And I can't remember about the Webull margin situation. Non-options only of course if so. Schwab gives the most leverage of all of them I believe if you just plan to buy or short stocks, but I may be wrong about that.

I appreciate you reaching out and providing the steps you've taken so far to troubleshoot this. Since you've already tried clearing the cache and storage, I'll outline the next steps below. 1. Ensure your phone and the mobile app are up-to-date 2. Use another internet connection to see if your experience is consistent 3. Delete and redownload the app for a fresh install After trying these steps, if you are still experiencing issues, please get in touch with a member of our Technical Support team. Associates are available to help Monday through Friday, from 8:30 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. ET. Just say "Technical Support" when calling in to be connected. [Contact Us ](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Please let us know if there is anything else we can help you with.

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $610.78 (below) | $735.88 | -17.0% | Fri, Nov 27, 4:28 PM ET |

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SOXL** ▲ | $100.00 (above) | $45.19 | $45.57 | +121.3% | Thu, Nov 26, 3:28 PM ET | | **Record** | 1W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |

I bought some ET for this reason earlier this year, but I am getting bored withy it

Fair points, and I agree with all three. On the sample: with today's report it's 7 of 11, which with 11 events is consistent with anything from roughly 35% to 85%. The 12 of 209 normal days is the tight number (roughly 3% to 10%), so the gap is real enough to test, not real enough to trust yet. on inheritance: agreed, so the rule should cover the morning, not the 9 o'clock hour. So here it is, written down today (Nov 6), before any new data: on NFP days, treat USDJPY 8:30 to 10:00 ET as one window. Flat, or half size with stops sized for event-day ranges, not normal-day ones. Test: from the December report on, I'll post the 8-10 ET range for each NFP next to the same window on normal weekdays. If the NFP window is more than 2x normal in at least 4 of the next 6 reports, the rule stays. If 3 or more come in near normal, like today's did, it goes. Same 10 reports can't find it and confirm it, as you said. Fresh ones can.

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 1W - 5L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $750.00 (above) | $737.74 | +1.7% | Fri, Nov 13, 1:39 PM ET |

23% profit. Total profit below. I missed yesterday entry as I was in meetings. Well, it happens and it was not in my curent plan to ride the candles anyway. Time to ride the Santa sleigh has not yet come. Hope you are happy, I went through all previous posts and added the sums for you. I don't track my profit on nice calandar, I find it waste of my time as I focus on the chart and trade and then go back to my goal of laziness 🐇 Total $999 |Day|Little Profit $| |:-|:-| |10|110| |9|200| |8|100| |7|125| |6|120| |5|70| |4|82| |3|52| |2|60| |1|80| The big moves always comes on ETFs, either up or down. If you have been trading with a few contracts and profitable, you can decide to risk it. However, if you only focus on big moves and to catch these only, well, you probably will get your empty account handed back to you every day 🤷🏻‍♂️ I can trade SPY, QQQ but I am not doing it as IWM fit my current Christmas trading, I am sure you noticed the time, premium prices I do and with the big moves, the premiums are more expensive. If you are unsure, sit on your hands. I need money for Christmas gifts. No one is going to give me for free, I am not so beautiful. I started with a $250 account, aiming to reach $5k profit in 50 day/trades. You saw on many of my previous post I was growing another small account. Hope you get inspired. Life is short. I will try post the trades. Simple options strategy, no wheel, iron condors etc. Using simple EMAs, VWAP etc to see the trends, levels calculations. Trade: 5 contracts = $110 total profit. Total options cost = $490 23 % profit Time in Trade : 7 min. Not bad morning glory at all 🤤 $10 per contract per day, it makes a huge difference with time. Don't be greedy every time. My trading plan and strategy is trading one trade a day, 2-5 times a week depending on availability. If you are learning by yourself, give it 2-3 months to see how you are progressing. If you believe I am lucky every day with the trades and posts 🤷🏻‍♂️ so be it. I believe I have no choice, I put in the effort and keep doing, any loss is my loss as it is me executing my own trades and money. I only day trade options on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc. Timestamp on the broker is UK time. So, entry time of 3.43 is 10.43 ET. I trade on my phone, screenshot is from TastyTrade. EMA 200 and VWAP on the screenshot for TradingView

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **RDDT** ▲ | $200.00 (above) | $156.93 | $94.89 | +27.4% | Wed 12:20 PM ET |

The 9:30 ET clock-hit is the part that actually matches what I have watched on dump days. Quiet overnight candles, then volume jumps the moment US cash opens — that pattern has shown up enough times this year that treating Asia hours as the whole story is a bad habit. Where I push back is the leap from same-day beta to "crypto is just a leveraged Nasdaq forever." In a liquidity squeeze desks sell whatever has a 24/7 book to raise cash, so correlations go to 1 for a session or a week. That is stress plumbing, not a permanent identity. Multi-month paths can still diverge once the forced selling is done. Practical bit for me is boring: size for the session that moves you. Leverage that feels fine at 3am UTC is a different animal in the first 90 minutes of US equities. That half of the post is the useful warning 👀

View in your timezone: [November 6 at 8 PM ET][1] [1]: https://timee.io/20261107T0100?tl=Scheduled+system+upgrade+on+November+6%2C+2026

🚧 Binance.US will perform a scheduled system upgrade starting November 6 at 8 PM ET. 🔸Cryptocurrency withdrawals will be temporarily unavailable for up to \~15 hours. 🔸You can continue to log in, check your balances, deposit, and trade as usual. 🔸Withdrawal requests during the upgrade will be processed once withdrawals resume. Learn more: [https://support.binance.us/en/articles/18300858](https://support.binance.us/en/articles/18300858)

Good work measuring the hour after the release instead of just the release minute. That is the part most people skip, and the prop math is the useful piece: a normal 20 pip stop sits inside a 53 pip median hour, so stops and size have to be set for the hour you are actually trading, not the average hour. One caution on the sample. 10 NFP reports is small. 7 of the last 10 sounds strong, but with 10 events the range of plausible true rates is wide, and one or two more reports either way moves it a lot. The stronger half of your comparison is the other side: 12 of 209 normal days is a big sample, and that is what makes the gap worth a second look. The test that would settle it is to write the rule down now, before the next reports, and check it against fresh data. Something like no trades, or half size, from 9 to 10 ET on NFP days. A pattern found by looking at the last 10 reports needs new reports to prove itself, because the same 10 reports cannot both find the pattern and confirm it. And your own caveat is worth keeping in mind: much of the USDJPY effect is the second hour inheriting the first hour's move. That does not make it useless, it just means the rule to test is about the whole morning, not only the 9 o clock hour.

“I’ll be here from noon to around 3:30 ET to answer questions about the business, our results, and where we’re taking Grindr next as a leading consumer AI product.” Brother, no one gives a fuck about that. Tell us how many butthole pics you have to scrub from people’s profiles on a daily basis.

Hi, welcome back. First and foremost, I'd like to thank you for considering Fidelity for this transfer! We appreciate your business. Based on the information you've provided, I can confirm that a transfer fee alone is not typically grounds for rejecting a Transfer of Assets (TOA). Although that's the case, if there is insufficient cash to cover the fees, the sending firm may not automatically liquidate funds on your behalf, which could explain the experience you've described. To get this resolved, the next step is to contact the sending firm for further information about their TOA out policies, as they can vary widely. Once you've contacted them, if you have additional questions about the transfer, we suggest contacting our TOA team via phone. Their associates are available from Monday through Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET using the link below: [Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) While we're here, do you have any other questions about the TOA process or how to get started at Fidelity once the funds have been transferred?

Good morning! I appreciate you sharing the troubleshooting steps you took to try to resolve this login issue. We are not receiving widespread reports of this, so in addition to the steps you took, you may also try switching your data connections between mobile and WiFi. If you're still unable to log in, we recommend reaching out to our Technical Support team so they can troubleshoot the issue with you further. Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Please say "technical support" when prompted by the automated system to be connected to the right group. [Contact us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us) Please feel free to let us know if we can help with anything else.

Good morning, I can help out. You are correct that the CBOE offers new extended-hours trading sessions. For background, it runs from 8:15 p.m. to 9:25 a.m. ET. We only support extended-hours trading from 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. ET for stock and ETF options on eligible trading days. What you're referring to sounds like the standard trading session. Generally, options trading hours, regardless of expiration, will not change, and the new trading hours will not change this at Fidelity. This means that you can expect standard trading hours for Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Options to be from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET. That said, specific securities, like the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), can extend to 4:15 p.m. ET. You can find a more specific breakdown of options trading hours through the link below. [NASDAQ Options Trading Hours*](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=optionshours) You'll want to know that Fidelity has a risk mitigation process where every account that has an expiring option is reviewed on its expiration date, to ensure that the exercise or assignment of the expiring contracts in the account can be supported. If exercise or assignment cannot be supported (i.e. insufficient buying power or equity, creating cash debits or short positions in a non-margin account, etc.), Fidelity reserves the right to close the contract prior to expiration per the terms of our Options Agreement. Please let us know if you have any other questions. Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.