ET
Energy Transfer LP Common Units representing limited partner interests
stock NYSE

Love the mechanics on the sizing. follow up questions since you're clearly deep in the weeds on this:
* Is 25% profit target always fixed, or does the MC ever adjust it per-trade based on the simulated distribution?
* What's the realized win rate so far, and what's the typical short delta it lands on?
* How many trades a day on average , sounds like up to 4 eval windows, but does it usually fire on all of them or mostly stand down?
* What's your stop loss multiple on the credit?
I use gamma exposure as my main structural read ,GEX regime (pos/neg), GFlip level, call vol/put vol strikes , to set today's levels instead of a tape classifier.Entry timing comes from tracking win rates by time-of-day over the last few months ,right now the best window is late morning into early afternoon (roughly 11:30-1:30 ET), after the open settles down. Win rate there has been strong, high 80s to low 90s.I only take one trade a day. PCS: flat 15 delta, hold to expiry, 150% stop. CCS: flat 15 delta, 75% TP, 200% stop.
Curious how your 1-min tape classifier (trend/exhaustion/EMA cross) compares , different inputs, might catch different things. Also curious if you've done the calibration check the other commenter suggested (bucketing predicted probability vs realized win rate) , that's a good gut-check I'm planning to run on my own framework's more recent additions

# SPY Alert For July 17
📊 **SPY LEVELS – Support Zone Breakdown** 📊
🔹 **Range:** Currently mostly **750.30 – 758.07** 🎯 **Key Pivot:** **754.48**
⬇️ **752.49 → 750.30 (major)**
📍 **752.54** — First support of interest down. Been a magnet all session, set a nice low here around 4:30AM ET. This zone is used up, trappy, and unstable now. ⚠️ If trading it, wait for a dip to **751.43** and a recovery first.
📍 **746.28 (major)** — Monday's low of day. Don't just buy it — wait for the **Failed Breakdown of Monday's daily low**.
🚫 Nothing below there until:
📍 **745.22 (major)** — Major support since June 30th. Slow grind in? Can try a bid. Safer entry: wait for **Failed Breakdown of 743.73** (last Wednesday's daily low). ✅ Ideal: tag **742.43**, recover **743.73**. 💰 Take profits aggressively here — decent chance it only runs a level or two (maybe to 745.22) before failing.
📍 **740.84** — Support of interest 📍 **739.34 (major)** — Strong support
👀 Below that: watch for **Failed Breakdown of 732.31** — Monday June 29th's low.
⚡️ *Not financial advice — educational levels for context only.*

At 10 AM ET today, the House Financial Services Committee's Subcommittee on Digital Assets is holding a field hearing in New York titled "Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation." A field hearing cannot pass anything. The choice of venue (Wall Street), timing (exactly one year after the House first passed the bill 294 to 134), and framing (jobs and innovation) is a deliberate closing argument at the exact moment the bill's 2026 fate hangs in the balance.
Quick refresher on what the bill actually does:
\- Draws the jurisdictional line between the SEC and CFTC that the industry has fought over for years
\- Sufficiently decentralized tokens become CFTC commodities in the spot market
\- Assets with securities characteristics stay with the SEC
\- Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP were already classified as commodities via joint SEC-CFTC interpretation in March 2026, but that is an executive interpretation and reversible with the next administration. CLARITY converts it to federal law and makes it permanent.
Where it actually stands (this is the part that doesn't get enough coverage):
\- Passed the House on July 17, 2025, by 294 to 134
\- Advanced Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026, by 15 to 9 (all 13 Republicans plus Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, both with caveats)
\- Sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 since June 1
\- Needs about 7 Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote cloture threshold
\- Three unresolved fights: ethics language covering officials with crypto exposure, Section 604 developer-protection provisions (which nearly broke the Coinbase-led industry coalition in June), and a stablecoin yield dispute
What the odds are actually doing:
\- Polymarket had 2026 passage priced above 70% earlier this year, sits near 43% today per multiple sources
\- Galaxy Research cut its 2026 passage estimate from 75% to 60% on June 5, citing Senate calendar constraints
\- JPMorgan and Stifel have both published notes about the narrowing legislative window
\- Senate August recess begins August 7. If the bill doesn't clear the floor by then, the realistic remaining path is a lame-duck session or restarting in 2027 with unknown congressional composition.
What I keep coming back to: the market has stopped pricing this. Traders moved on to Fed policy and macro headlines. But CLARITY is the single largest structural variable in US crypto for the next decade. Whether US-domiciled firms have permanent regulatory clarity or continue operating under reversible interpretation gets decided in the next 21 days.
The honest counter-argument: field hearings are theater. They can showcase support but they can't move a single Democratic senator who wasn't already going to vote yes. The bill lives or dies on the ethics language negotiations happening off-camera. The New York event is the closing argument, not the deciding vote.
Curious how this sub is thinking about it. Is the odds collapse from 70 to 43 percent a rational repricing of a bill that was always more fragile than the industry admitted, or a mispricing driven by short-term calendar frustration? And does anyone here actually think the ethics provision fight is a fixable technicality rather than a hard block?
Not a prediction. Not investment advice.

https://preview.redd.it/z96zyl9tlpdh1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5e1fcfd82831ed237bd1827e6a02b17958b94ab
**📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)**
**10:00 AM** | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 49.5
**10:00 AM** | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Previous: 4.6%
⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ConsumerSentiment #InflationExpectations

I have an earlier thread about how Fidelity just changed margin maintenance requirement terms at its whim, doing an "accelerated risk sale" on shares I did not want, and not even telling me that it was going to happen when I was discussing this with a rep over the phone.
But now, evidently Fidelity is going back on its word and not honoring the promised 5.25% margin rate that was the one of the 2 main reasons I did partial transfer in the first place.
Of course, when I called, it was after hours, but you can bet your sweet bippy that I'll lighting up the phones at 7:30 ET tomorrow.
What an awful, lying, cheating, conning business.

* **President** [**Donald Trump**](https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump) **is set to** [**address the nation**](https://apnews.com/article/trump-primetime-address-elections-5c84a59dffc20c12ed2fcb822fa950c9) **on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET** on topics he said will include [**elections and voting machines**](https://apnews.com/article/trump-speech-elections-integrity-ea69e086380898546e58663d8fc5c6dc), suggesting he could **revisit long-debunked conspiracy theories about his 2020 defeat** to Democrat Joe Biden. The speech comes as he’s escalated his calls for Republicans to pass tighter federal voting rules ahead of November’s midterm elections.
So it's not going to pump the market.

I've scored two different low-mintage coins that sold out in minutes simply by being signed in and on the product page while watching the seconds tick down to 12 ET. Hit refresh as quick as I can and hit the order button. I've used the same method to get concert tickets, too. It probably helps that I'm in VA, right at the center of the data center universe. Low latency matters.

Normally they would start dumping and fucking around at 8pm ET but they mercifully have a bank holiday on their Friday. We must do the dumping tonight.

Supposedly 9 ET. Your call as to whether or not he'll be anywhere close to on time. 

Well this looked decent until 4pm ET. Try binging love on the spectrum this weekend on NFLX and maybe you’ll bounce back.

PRINT PRINT PRINT IMMEDIATE DISTRIBUTION:
POPULAR
REPUBLICAN
EXPECTEd
to Synergize
Irreconcilable
DemocratS
Even though
NT. Never believed
. Thought it was a long shot
. Now hates the job after first February
PRESIDENT = PReZ1d3nT
PRZT
RZT
RTZ
ZRT
ZTR
DZTR
DTR2
DR2T
DART
DrAT
DR.At
AT THE
At the office....
We always need more memory. We're human. Good luck. You have until the election to learn from mistakes and make gains. I believe in you. Don't miss the chance to hold the right bags to generate a Solar System for you and your kind Ad Infinitum ET Ultra At Maxima.
One last time. BACCARAT. LET'S PRINT.
Strike price. Gold x corn. x Oil x wheat x water x commodities.
Absolute Best Regards. It's been an honor to get to know all of you.
Goodbye,
PRNXVTAD
\-BACCARAT

Centcom: At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the fifth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities.

I think you're thinking of stock trades. With options, I might have 4 fills for an Iron Condor (2 puts and 2 calls). These are 4 distinct orders (not talking partial fills). But on the orders export, I only get 1 line of output that summarizes the overall Iron Condor position. That's not helpful to me because I need to know what each contract's fill price. If it was just combining partial fills that would be fine, but that's not what it's doing.
Here is an example of the export for an Iron Condor:
SPX JUL 24 7675/JUL 27 7700 Call | 7400/7350 Put,Custom,20,Net Credit at $3.80,Filled at $38.00,20 / 20,--,0.00,**0.00,**3.1999999999999975,3.8499999999999988,4.5,Day,1:37:00 PM ET Jul-16-2026
There's no way I can derive the fill prices of the short/long calls and short/long puts from that.

Triangle on SPX says this should resolve one way or another around 1:30 ET

Our teams are working hard to add the tools and features our traders want most, and I have shared your feedback with our developers. In the meantime, we'd like to offer some troubleshooting steps you can try if you haven't already:
1. Delete and reinstall Fidelity Trader+ Desktop on your device
2. Make sure your device has the latest software update
3. Double-check that your device meets the right system requirements through the link below
[Fidelity Trader+ Desktop System Requirements](https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms/system-requirements)
If you've already taken those steps or still experience issues after completing them, we recommend reaching out to our Technical Support team, so they can troubleshoot the issue with you further. Associates are available Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. ET. Please say "technical support" when prompted by the automated system to be connected to the right group.
[Contact Us](https://www.fidelity.com/customer-service/contact-us)
If you have additional questions for us here on the sub, don't hesitate to reach out.

9pm ET

https://preview.redd.it/efldcfbudldh1.png?width=2104&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc168e155474d70e2e44680df6a96907565f6f8f
Good morning, SqueezeFinders!
Yesterday's price action on the $QQQ tech index was more boring rangebound consolidation movement with little indication of whether we will move into a bullish or bearish state going forward. The $QQQ tech index closed down 0.27% at 717.74, which is smack dab in the middle between upper and lower bounds at roughly 730 and 700 respectively. The main directional sentiment determinants today are a mix of the below-detailed economic data releases, any further developments in the Middle-East, and also some large earnings reports (premarket: $UNH, $TSMC, $USB, $GE, $STT, and in after-hours: $NFLX). This market is very dynamic and has been unpredictable as far as risk-tolerance goes, as one day we're running, and the next we're crashing. Stay tuned for what's squeezy. Regardless of broader market sentiment, you can always locate relative strength by checking SqueezeRadar to track irregularities in our data, and find winners you may not have spotted before without our scanners.
🥇 Gold: \~$4,040/oz (-0.6%)
🥈 Silver: \~$57.50/oz (-0.9%)
🪙 Bitcoin: \~$64.8k/coin (+0.3%)
🛢️ Oil: \~$79.50/barrel (+0.5%)
Today's economic data releases are:
🇺🇸 Retail Sales (Jun) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (Jun) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Philly Fed Employment (Jul) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Retail Control (Jun) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (Jun) @ 10:00AM ET
🇺🇸 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) @ 10:00AM ET
🇺🇸 Business Inventories (May) @ 10:00AM ET
🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) @ 11:30AM ET
🇺🇸 President Trump speaks @ 9PM ET
📙Breakdown point: BELOW this price, the move will lose momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts will gain confidence encouraging them to short more. Reducing probability of a squeeze without a catalyst.
📙Breakout point: ABOVE this price, the move will gain momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts losses will increase pressuring them to cover. Increasing the probability of a squeeze occurring, especially if with a catalyst.
4. $IOVA
Squeezability Score: 49%
Juice Target: 11.1
Confidence: 🍊
Price: 4.74 (+20.6%)
Breakdown point: 4.1
Breakout point: 5.7
Mentions (30D): 0 🆕
Event/Condition: Australian conditional approval for Amtagvi in advanced melanoma marking third global authorization and supporting international revenue ramp + FDA IND clearance for IOV-5001 enabling Phase 1/2 basket trial expansion into additional solid tumors + updated corporate outlook highlighting Amtagvi commercial growth and pipeline progress with multiple upcoming data readouts + Recent price target 🎯 of $9 from Joseph Pantginis / HC Wainwright + Recent price target 🎯 of $14 from Chardan + Recent price target 🎯 of $9 from Mizuho
5. $EOSE
Squeezability Score: 37%
Juice Target: 13.1
Confidence: 🍊
Price: 4.37 (+1.9%) jumped \~10% in after-hours
Breakdown point: 4.0
Breakout point: 7.0
Mentions (30D): 0 🆕
Event/Condition: Commercial production start at Thorn Hill manufacturing facility alongside first purchase order under 2 GWh capacity reservation advancing zinc battery deployment + $75M registered direct offering and key consents for Frontier financing strengthening balance sheet for growth + board and leadership updates plus Q2 revenue guidance supporting long-duration energy storage expansion + New deal with Pentagon for Golden Dome + Recent price target 🎯 of $10 from Stifel + Recent price target 🎯 of $7 from Truist Securities + Recent price target 🎯 of $11 from Needham
Gain access to all our cutting-edge research tools, live watchlists, alerts, and more: [https://www.squeeze-finder.com/subscribe](https://www.squeeze-finder.com/subscribe)
HINT: Use code RDDT to get your first month for just $10!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THESE POSTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

NFLX and **chill** or NFLX and **drill**. Find out at 4:05pm ET!

I have continuously owned SPY (and other S&P 500 ETFs) since 2006 as long-term investments.
I'm considering adding a separate strategy where I occasionally short ES futures **only during regular market hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET)** and close the futures position near the market close the same day. My long SPY position would remain unchanged and fully invested at all times.
Would this create any issues under the **constructive sale rules** or the **tax straddle rules**? Not asking for trading advice - just being prudent.
More specifically, could this cause the IRS to treat any portion of my **unrealized gains** in SPY as taxable, even though I have not sold my SPY holdings?
Thanks very much!

Festivus, the airing of grievances, tonight at 9PM ET.