CVX
Chevron Corporation
stock NYSE

This is deceptive as the responses will have a sampling bias (those with good results will be more likely to respond). Also results will be skewed by leverage, options, concentration, day/swing trading, and short sampling period.
That said...my YTD return is 40.9%. In my case this is 50+ stocks, no leverage, mostly long term holdings. But I did get lucky. I got home runs from AMD, BAND. Triples from DOCN, WTTR, FCX...and a number of doubles like DXPE, TGT, AMKR, RAL, UNFI, and predicting the date of the CVGW/AVO merger. Without BAND and AMD, I'm likely in the low 30's.
So far active investing works for me (knock on wood), but there is extraordinary risk. I've had spectacular strike-outs on a few stocks. I also sold quite a few stocks too early (eg WELL, XOM, CVX). Most should stick to passive investing.

running adaptive momentum on alpaca + traderspost – sharing live trades & logic
stock bot (alpaca + traderspost): execution is 100% deterministic. anchor zones + atr trailing are hardcoded rules. no ai makes live decisions. speed/predictability first.
ai (qwen2.5:3b local via ollama): only runs in background after trades close. scores whether manual exits or auto-stops worked better historically. updates weights slowly. never touches live orders.
crypto bot (binance): same core logic but more volatile. manual overrides get logged as high-score events. bot learns which conditions warrant human review vs auto-execution. still not fully autonomous – and that’s intentional.
why this setup?
no api costs (local model).
execution never waits for inference.
learning happens offline, safely.
human oversight where volatility demands it.
not claiming perfection. just sharing what’s working with $102k stock portfolio + recent crypto tests. happy to answer questions about the logic if anyone’s curious.
current positions (live)
\- AAPL: 31.0 aksjer @ $314.41 → Nå $340.03 (+8.15%)
\- AMD: 40.0 aksjer @ $524.42 → Nå $606.20 (+15.59%)
\- AVGO: 29.0 aksjer @ $345.81 → Nå $361.20 (+4.45%)
\- CAT: 12.0 aksjer @ $810.34 → Nå $812.00 (+0.21%)
\- COST: 11.0 aksjer @ $902.56 → Nå $903.83 (+0.14%)
\- DIS: 93.0 aksjer @ $107.39 → Nå $104.86 (-2.36%)
\- ISRG: 17.0 aksjer @ $376.40 → Nå $404.00 (+7.33%)
\- JPM: 18.0 aksjer @ $350.22 → Nå $352.82 (+0.74%)
\- META: 15.0 aksjer @ $649.35 → Nå $730.93 (+12.56%)
\- MSFT: 20.0 aksjer @ $483.07 → Nå $507.81 (+5.12%)
\- PLTR: 58.0 aksjer @ $171.83 → Nå $184.35 (+7.29%)
disclaimer: not financial advice. crypto bot still migrating to cloud. past performance ≠ future results.
\-09-22 15:19:21,392 \[INFO\] ============================================================
2026-09-22 15:19:21,392 \[INFO\] 🤖 TRADING BOT v6.3 - MANUELT SALG, EKT ADAPTIV LÆRING
2026-09-22 15:19:21,392 \[INFO\] ============================================================
2026-09-22 15:19:21,392 \[INFO\] 🧠 AI-modell: qwen2.5:7b
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] 🧠 Hukommelse: Optimalisert for lokal LLM (SIMULERT-data filtrert bort)
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] 🎯 Adaptiv læring: TILPASSER PARAMETRE AUTOMATISK
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] ⏱️ Analyse-cooldown: 3 minutter
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] 🎯 Fokus: AAPL, AMD, AVGO, CAT, COST, DIS, JPM, LLY, META, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR, NFLX, SMCI
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] 💰 Order size: $10,000
2026-09-22 15:19:21,393 \[INFO\] 🚨 Hard stop (fra .env): 8.0%
2026-09-22 15:19:21,394 \[INFO\] 📈 Trailing-aktivering: 2.0% gevinst (VARSLING KUN, ikke auto-salg)
2026-09-22 15:19:21,394 \[INFO\] ============================================================
2026-09-22 15:19:21,394 \[INFO\] ✅ Adaptive parametre validert OK
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] 🧠 Adaptive parametre lastet og AKTIVERT:
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • Hard stop: 8.0%
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • Trailing stop: 0.0%
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • Aktiveringsterskel: 2.0%
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • Nyhetsgrense: -0.25
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • RSI kjøp: 42.0
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • Order size multiplier: 0.8x
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] • RSI Bunnfishing grense: 15.0
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] 🚫 Blokkerte symboler: WMT
2026-09-22 15:19:21,395 \[INFO\] ⭐ Favoritter: PLTR, BRK.B, KO, CVX, MA, META
2026-09-22 15:19:22,521 \[INFO\] 🔄 Ryddet symbol\_pause\[NFLX\] (ikke i portefølje)
2026-09-22 15:19:22,522 \[INFO\] 🔄 Ryddet siste\_analyse\_tidspunkt\[LLY\] (ikke i portefølje)
2026-09-22 15:19:22,522 \[INFO\] 🔄 Ryddet siste\_analyse\_tidspunkt\[NVDA\] (ikke i portefølje)
2026-09-22 15:19:22,522 \[INFO\] 🔄 Ryddet siste\_analyse\_tidspunkt\[SMCI\] (ikke i portefølje)
2026-09-22 15:19:22,523 \[INFO\] ✅ Recovery fullført: 4 zombie-data fjernet
2026-09-22 15:19:22,523 \[INFO\] Renser opp i gamle hengende ordrer...
2026-09-22 15:19:22,645 \[INFO\] Ingen åpne ordrer funnet.
2026-09-22 15:19:23,275 \[INFO\] 🔄 Alpaca-synk: 0 nye lukkede handler, 0 nye loggrader, 147 allerede registrert.
2026-09-22 15:19:23,495 \[INFO\] 🧠 Adaptiv læring: bruker botens trail-salg for META i stedet for 5 importerte loter (ordre e40851b6-2417-490f-96bc-46e66ab401c6).
2026-09-22 15:19:23,630 \[INFO\] 🧠 Adaptiv læring: ingen nye salg å analysere.
2026-09-22 15:19:23,631 \[INFO\] 🧠 Adaptiv analyse etter Alpaca-synk: TRAILING: 1.8% (strammere beskyttelse); ORDER\_SIZE: 0.8x (reduser risiko); TRAILING: 2.0% (strammere beskyttelse)
2026-09-22 15:19:23,631 \[INFO\] 🧠 Laster AI-hukommelse med adaptiv læring...
2026-09-22 15:19:24,452 \[INFO\] Hukommelse lastet:
🏆 BESTE AKSJER (total gevinst):
✅ META: +28.30%
✅ DIS: +6.80%
✅ PLTR: +6.01%
✅ CVX: +5.03%
✅ BRK.B: +4.48%
O\] 📊 AAPL ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $314.41 | Nå: $338.89 | Topp: $338.89 | ATR-stop: $318.18 | Gevinst: 7.79%
2026-09-22 15:20:12,032 \[INFO\] ⛔ AAPL MOMENTUM BREMSER: 3d=0.6% vs 5d=2.3% → VENT
2026-09-22 15:20:12,032 \[INFO\] ⛔ AAPL: Pyramide avvist - ikke momentum (Momentum bremser (3d: +0.6% vs 5d: +2.3%))
2026-09-22 15:20:13,958 \[INFO\] 📊 AMD ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $524.42 | Nå: $615.36 | Topp: $615.36 | ATR-stop: $530.71 | Gevinst: 17.34%
2026-09-22 15:20:16,812 \[INFO\] 📊 AMD TOPP-FILTER: Avstand til 90d topp: 0.0% | Straff: -60 | Justert score: 20/100
2026-09-22 15:20:16,812 \[INFO\] ⛔ AMD: Pyramide avvist - ikke momentum (Breakout score 20/100 for lavt (straff: -60))
2026-09-22 15:20:19,035 \[INFO\] 📊 AVGO ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $345.81 | Nå: $362.54 | Topp: $372.64 | ATR-stop: $349.96 | Gevinst: 4.84%
2026-09-22 15:20:20,751 \[INFO\] 📊 CAT VENTER PÅ AKTIVERING | Inn: $810.34 | Nå: $816.68 | Gevinst: 0.78% (trenger 3.0% for trailing)
2026-09-22 15:20:22,239 \[INFO\] 📊 COST VENTER PÅ AKTIVERING | Inn: $902.56 | Nå: $898.45 | Gevinst: -0.46% (trenger 3.0% for trailing)
2026-09-22 15:20:24,858 \[INFO\] 📊 DIS VENTER PÅ AKTIVERING | Inn: $107.39 | Nå: $104.23 | Gevinst: -2.94% (trenger 3.0% for trailing)
2026-09-22 15:20:29,689 \[INFO\] 📊 JPM VENTER PÅ AKTIVERING | Inn: $350.22 | Nå: $352.03 | Gevinst: 0.52% (trenger 3.0% for trailing)
2026-09-22 15:20:45,338 \[ERROR\] $META: possibly delisted; no price data found (period=5d)
2026-09-22 15:20:45,339 \[ERROR\]
1 Failed download:
2026-09-22 15:20:45,339 \[ERROR\] \['META'\]: possibly delisted; no price data found (period=5d)
2026-09-22 15:20:51,850 \[INFO\] 📊 META ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $649.35 | Nå: $741.13 | Topp: $741.13 | ATR-stop: $657.14 | Gevinst: 14.13%
2026-09-22 15:20:54,196 \[INFO\] 📊 META TOPP-FILTER: Avstand til 90d topp: 0.0% | Straff: -50 | Justert score: 50/100
2026-09-22 15:20:54,196 \[INFO\] ⛔ META: Pyramide avvist - ikke momentum (Breakout score 50/100 for lavt (straff: -50))
2026-09-22 15:21:04,015 \[INFO\] 📊 MSFT ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $483.07 | Nå: $501.61 | Topp: $517.75 | ATR-stop: $488.87 | Gevinst: 3.84%
2026-09-22 15:21:15,777 \[INFO\] 📊 PLTR ATR-TRAIL AKTIV | Inn: $171.83 | Nå: $183.08 | Topp: $183.08 | ATR-stop: $173.89 | Gevinst: 6.55%
2026-09-22 15:21:23,842 \[INFO\] 📊 PLTR TOPP-FILTER: Avstand til 90d topp: 1.8% | Straff: -60 | Justert score: 15/100
2026-09-22 15:21:23,842 \[INFO\] ⛔

Total 14 days of SPR supply left.
Oil price eventually show week by week.
Divert all by AI-theme, when real economy & consumers & many stable businesses struggling.
$XOM $CVX $VLO $EQT $UNG $XLE $SLB $HAL $OXY all see soon
$AMD $MU $NVDA $META $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ all need energy
https://preview.redd.it/xkd324zy2zqh1.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=938ae2a75a6d73527475bd7386f7763bd6d5bc5e

See SPR data

Im convinced the market has no faith in actual data center utilization. They just want to cash in on them being built.
Case in point? Energy and utility companies have been shitting the bed despite all the data center buildout, despite them being mandatory to keep them running. And this is isnt some theoretical thing, there are 20 year contracts already on the books for companies like CVX supplying MSFT with natural gas to power their data centers, and the market didnt care whatsoever on that announcement.

Probably the best now is PSX, as it is solely refineries and the crack spreads have been out of sight. But I stay with CVX and XOM. They both do it all so when crude production is important they are good and they make money on refining as well as chemicals also.

With oil high, oil companies have all been lifted by a rising tide. If you've valued oil companies, which one is the best value and why? What metric or blend of metrics are you using to make that determination?
I like to look at total resources (Proved, Probably, and Possible) relative to market capitalization. I think this is the most important metric.
Reasoning:
* Total resources are the best estimate of long term NPV and NPV is the most rational price target and P/NPV is the best indicator of value. P/NAV essentially encompasses P/B and P/E together in a comprehensive metric.
* Resources are the backbone of the company. Consider the extremes: If the company had zero resources it would be able to produce nothing and be useless. If the company had infinite resources it would be so amazing, it would never have to spend on exploration or acquisition, and it could burn through them as fast it wanted, or even just sell the rights off. Therefore resources are important.
For this reason, I wouldn't mirror BRK's ownership of OXY or CVX. BRK's purchase of OXY this time last year was a signal that oil was good value, but it doesn't mean that OXY is the best value just because it was approved by the Oracle of Omaha, merely the best fit for BRK's mega cap portfolio. Therefore a retail investor chasing oil value would have to study all the oil stocks and calculate the best one for themselves.

The CEO of Chevron mentioned release from strategic reserves, commercial inventory drawdown, and crude from vessels at sea as mechanisms to moderate oil price. He did not mention anything about ramp-up in supply. While the exact increase in production doesn't seem to be known, here is a discussion of it, at least for the US: [How Much Has U.S. Domestic Oil Output Increased Since ...](https://factually.co/fact-checks/finance/us-domestic-oil-output-increase-since-iran-conflict-44b885)
Verifiable information is hard to get because of the Iran conflict. From my reading, though, researching my own oil investments, when oil executives have held back on going hard to ramp up production, it has been because this is a *supply shock* and not a *demand shock*. If the Iran war ends, they are basically afraid of being left in an oversupply situation.
Also as food for thought,
The USA imported oil worth $5.83 billion from Venezuela in the first half of 2026 when total imports were $3.38 billion for all of 2025. [US Oil Imports from Venezuela: Latest Trade Data & Oil Deal Impact - Our Blogs - US Trade Data Blogs: Latest Trade Insights](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-oil-imports-from-venezuela-2026-oil-deal)
[Chevron (CVX) Supercharges its Venezuela Bet with More Oil Rigs](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/chevron-cvx-supercharges-venezuela-bet-151837921.html)
[Exxon is nearing preliminary deal to invest in Venezuela’s oil fields](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/exxon-is-nearing-preliminary-deal-to-invest-in-venezuela-s-oil-fields/ar-AA2cn37L?ocid=BingNewsSerp)
[Billionaire Harold Hamm Makes Deal to Explore for Venezuela Oil](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/billionaire-harold-hamm-makes-deal-171809886.html)

So... With all the money y'all be making off the 1R3N war, $XOM $CVX $BP..., y'all gonna contribute to the #Hyperfund for all the petrochemical lawsuits that energy company's, like $DUK in Lake Norman, are futilly fighting right? RIGHT? Otherwise, 0.05 USD off at the pump ain't gonna cut it.