CNQ Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Over the weekend and last week major events occurred that will shake the market upon Mondays open. With the most obvious being the war with Iran that resulted in the close of the strait of Hormuz cutting off 20-30% of the world's oil supply. Commodities will explode stocks linked to the price of oil e.g. CNQ, CVX will take off but stocks whose profit margins are impacted and hurt by oil's increase in price will slide. Growth stocks may see a hard sell causing the NASDAQ to open the month of March the way it closes the month of February. Bleeding. This may present a prime opportunity however causing stocks whose business models that remain stable to go on discount and allow some to capitalise on the opportunity. We also saw PPI come out higher than expected and higher than CPI, pushing belief that businesses have absorbed a large portion of tariff and geopolitical caused inflation. Meaning prices habe yet to surge and im sure many feel they are beginning to.
However this is not the opportunity it may seem. Before the events of the weekend I had been conducting research on an ongoing event that had caused a significant sell off of financial stocks on Friday, causing it to decline 2% in the S&P alone. The issue may be, in the words of many articles, 'cockroaches’ coming out of the cracks starting the domino effect that could lead to the Ai bubble popping and a possible global financial crisis. Last week a private credit firm MFS that specialised in ‘property backed loans’ went into administration. This may not be significant however MFS had received major loans from big banks e.g. Barclays, Santander etc. MFS had double pledged houses as collateral on these loans (using the same house as insurance for a bank e.g. Barclays ensuring payout in case of tight liquidity or depleted cash for MULTIPLE loans with MULTIPLE banks). This caused them to eventually go into administration (a type of bankruptcy) and accused of major financial mismanagement. This may not seem major however it means there is approximately a shortfall of £1 billion. Across multiple banks resulting in liquidity tightening. This means banks hike their interest rates, stop issuing loans and major write offs in losses. The taxpayer is generally safe as MFS falls out of the government bailout safety net meaning the banks involved bear the losses supporting cause for tighter liquidity further.
How does this link to wall street? As mentioned, financials declined 2% in the S&P on Friday alone. Private credit firms face a crunch as investors pull out money in fears of there being widespread financial mismanagement in private credit (which caused Blue Owl’s stock to decline massively last week). But it doesn't end there. Banks and private credit firms have been handing out loans to Ai startups and Ai involved tech companies to allow them to have successful buildout but the collateral for these loans is mostly GPU’s. Nvidia's GPU’s. Which are only worth so much until the new line releases or another company steps in with something more valuable which we are beginning to see with Google's TPU’s. This means the collateral will become worthless and banks and private credit firms will have sums of debt to demand from these now declared subprime Ai startups that lose money. Almost all Ai startups have been losing money from OpenAi to Anthropic. The mag 7 is MAJORLY exposed with 250 BILLION DOLLARS across all 7 pledged in investments. If financials continue to sell off aggressively, chip companies face competition in product and the circular financing continues we will see defaults. GPU backed loans are already packaged into bonds mirroring 2008’s MBS’s. These GPU securities have a market 6x larger than the actual debt, this means there's approximately $25 billion in debt however there is approximately $150 billion dollars invested into these GPU loan backed securities. But these GPUs are constantly having their livespans reevaluated. In 2025 it was said they had 3-5 years but now it's as short as 18 months. MFS’s administration was the canary in the coalmine that has exposed just how similar our conditions are to 2008. Not to mention the impending jobless crisis in the UK and the US alongside the cost of living crisis. THIS is why Nvidia sold off after earnings this week. People are asking how much money they made is cyclical, how much is from private credit loops and how is it possible for them to maintain 70% growth at a 5 trillion dollar valuation when most of their income comes from the capex of the mag 7 who’s free cash flow (money left after covering essential costs and investments) has turned NEGATIVE. Nvidia contributed 30/100 billion dollars to a recent OpenAi funding round highlighting the cyclical nature further with the 100 billion being a literal representation of the ‘subprime’ fuel of the Ai boom. If the private credit market freezes almost all tech growth stocks will see valuations slide further. Remember software, chips, Ai, power/energy are all layers of this and are all exposed. Software was the first to feel it because of Anthropics latest move but these financial uncoverings have been adding to their sell off and valuation slides.
This is the first domino in a long line of which will end in a global financial crisis. Of course these events are all dependent on the previous occurrence however the cogs are turning and the clock is ticking and companies are choosing to ignore the obvious and claim money is being made and the exposure to such harmful debt and events is little to none. But the market has spoken. And the valuations are already sliding.
01/03/26