CIF
MFS Intermediate High Income Fund
stock NYSE

Lithium quarterlies are out, and as usual the market has responded to forward looking figures. So, using midpoints, the table below shows expectations from PLS, LTR & ELV over next 12 months.
ELV hasn't provided guidance yet, but they shocked us with an AISC above US$1150/t (SC6 adjusted) during a warm weather quarter, so I'm going to give them benefit of the doubt with a lower estimate. **The figure in brackets for ELV is an attempt to account for royalties when comparing them with Australian producers**, **which work in their favour**.
Notes:
* all USD
* based on FY27 forecast
* obviously PLS will achieve superior sales prices next year, which hasn't been included
|Company|Annual Output (SC6 adjust)|CIF + sustaining (ex royalty)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|PLS|920,000|$590/t|
|LTR|350,000|$920/t|
|ELV|180-190,000|$1100/t (equiv $1000/t)|
Royalties adds to the costs of PLS and LTR. If carbonate were to average US$22k/t over the next year, you might expect $100 to $120 added to PLS and LTR OPEXs. If you were to do that, you'd then use the $1100/t figure for ELV to compare.
You can see why LTR got crushed following the quarterly, though it was still much better than ELV's.
On an academic level, I wonder how long LTR can sustain cult status on HC, given that the company has indicated another poor year awaits. Like everyone else, I was bemused to see the news from MoM that they're sourcing external ore for their concentrator.
Hard to believe that Liontown's costs may only be 5-10% below ELV's in FY27 (in real terms).
u/Vain64 I wouldn't pay much mind to lithium forecasting. As we've seen, it's inevitably wrong, and not by a small margin. Though the inventories graph you've provided is intriguing (if accurate).

Lithium quarterlies are out, and as usual the market has responded to forward looking figures. So, using midpoints, the table below shows expectations from PLS, LTR & ELV over next 12 months.
ELV hasn't provided guidance yet, but they shocked us with an AISC above US$1150/t (SC6 adjusted) during a warm weather quarter, so I'm going to give them benefit of the doubt with a lower estimate. **The figure in brackets for ELV is an attempt to account for royalties when comparing them with Australian producers**, **which work in their favour**.
Notes:
* all USD
* based on FY27 forecast
* obviously PLS will achieve superior sales prices next year, which hasn't been included
|Company|Annual Output (SC6 adjust)|CIF + sustaining (ex royalty)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|PLS|920,000|$590/t|
|LTR|350,000|$920/t|
|ELV|180-190,000|$1100/t (equiv $1000/t)|
Royalties adds to the costs of PLS and LTR. If carbonate were to average US$22k/t over the next year, you might expect $100 to $120 added to PLS and LTR OPEXs. If you were to do that, you'd then use the $1100/t figure for ELV to compare.
You can see why LTR got crushed following the quarterly, though it was still much better than ELV's.
On an academic level, I wonder how long LTR can sustain cult status on HC, given that the company has indicated another poor year awaits. Like everyone else, I was bemused to see the news from MoM that they're sourcing external ore for their concentrator.
Hard to believe that Liontown's costs may only be 5-10% below ELV's in FY27 (in real terms).
u/Vain64 I wouldn't pay much mind to lithium forecasting. As we've seen, it's inevitably wrong, and not by a small margin. Though the inventories graph you've provided is intriguing (if accurate).