BAD
B.A.D. ETF
stock NYSE

IRAN WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL SO BAD.

Here’s the fundamental problem with SMH as of current.
SMH first and foremost is JUST an ETF.
It’s a wrapper for individual companies like any other ETF.
The companies INSIDE the ETF are mainly semiconductor related companies: Nvida, ASML, Micron, Intel, AMD, TSMC etc
Look at the longest timeframe of the stock price that you can, for each individual company you will see a trend:
Around 2020 when AI/LLMs took off with ChatGPT and the AI craze began SMH and the companies inside it SKYROCKETED.
They’re receiving massive revenues due to the AI data center buildout. Some of these companies have price to earnings ratios of 100+!!
Meaning they are ALREADY extremely overvalued (possibly). Meaning SMH has skyrocketed based on a narrative, that narrative is AI is going to be REVOLUTIONARY, self driving cars EVERYWHERE, autonomous robots taking nearly every physical job, LLMs replacing 30, 40, 50 + percent of white collar workers, so on and so forth. (See the AI boosters fear mongering and marketing).
Micron (memory) is trading at an 18 PE. “WOW! So cheap! Buy!”
Well hold on.
Memory more so than chips (even though chips as well - key factor) has always been a cyclical trade, not a buy and hold. Reason being during massive tech buildouts chip companies benefit. Things slow. They lose revenues until the next manor supply demand crunch. Cyclical.
Investors know this. The thing is the narrative is changing. People aren’t really buying the AI hype story any longer. Sustainable of economics and a business model i.e. how profitable is AI? Many are starting to see, not very much so.
LLM companies (OpenAi/Anthropic) don’t have a moat. Open source models at 90% less the cost of these AI labs are proving to be on par performance wise at a fraction of the cost.
SMH has been riding lower because 1. A perfect execution has already been priced in. You need to ask not if SMH is a buy, but at what price. Currently SMH is STILL overpriced if you believe this is going to die down, underpriced if you think it’s what the bulls try and sell.
If AI flops - it’s not nearly as profitable as everyone thought, guess what? Demand for the AI trade at large dwindles down and crashes. (Bubble bursts).
Eventually companies need to prove revenues and earnings via AI. Currently the only ones profiting at the hyperscalers who are spending capex for compute then renting that compute to OAI and Anthr. and in return basically getting their money back and showing it on their balance sheets at cloud revenue.
What if OAI and Anthr. can’t become profitable? What if all this capex doesn’t amount to anything? What if LLMs are a useful $5 billion a year market not a $5 TRILLION market?
It’s seeming to be the former not the latter.
With that said, if this bubble pops (which I believe it will) chip stocks, memory stocks, etc, return to pre 2020 levels as there won’t be much demand as the promise of AI did not deliver.
This is the argument being had and the skepticism of the market as of late.
It’s why Michael Burry, Jim Chanos, Ed Zitron and many many many many more people who journalists, researchers, long term money managers, investors and the like with many years of experience are sounding off on the bubble.
My take is that this thing is going to collapse and collapse hard. Time the market? Good luck. Idk when. But it’s going to happen. I sold SMH on June 30th and Intel the same day at their ATH. I got lucky but I was tired of fighting with the evidence. Now both of which are down massively.
Smh: 650 -> $500
INTC: 140 -> $80
Both are recovering slightly now and slightly higher. But the fact remains. AI isn’t profitable. This is a bubble and these companies are trading at ridiculous valuations because investors bought into the AI hype, the volatility is people trying to manage risk because deep down investors know this party is going to end and it’s going to end BAD unless AI can perform some super miracle and this massive compute spend party continues.
BUT
As soon as a hyperscaler announces capex cuts, as soon as Nvidia misses an earnings - boy of fucking boy, every investor knows what I know and it is going to be a BLOOD BATH as the AI trade has been the only thing propping up the stock market and GDP as of the last few years.
All evidence points to AI not having an ROI. Just wait.

\>DOOOOOOOD DA HECKIN AMERICANZ ARE RIGGING DA ELECTIONS DOOOOOOOOD
\>JUST IGNORE THE FACT THAT ALL THE FAR-RIGHT PARTIES ARE DIRECTLY BANKROLLED BY RUSSIA DOOOOOOOOD
\>DOOOOOOOOOOOD AMERICA=BAD DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD

Have to admit I did trim my AUG $415 CALLS prior to earnings because the BIG BAD BERS scared me with all their commentary.
Sold too early at open post earnings and sold by DEC $430 calls yesterday. It is what it is…
Still sitting on 200 stocks and holding until $800 whenever that hits, or maybe I keep forever 🚀

Removal of choice is BAD, traditional banks cutting costs & services & infrastructure to compete with Revolut is BAD
That's what a €5-10, to start with, Internet-only Bank Equalisation Stamp Duty will help iron out. The IBESD could be introduced in #Budget2027 and kick in from January 2027.

BAD APE!!!

I also hold FMTM in an "experimental slot" to evaluate if it will be a long term hold (I have held SPMO for much longer and it is a permanent fixture in my portfolio). Having done an exhaustive amount of research on FMTM and momentum in general, what happened to FMTM in July was, simply, BAD LUCK. Here's my thoughts:
Academics generally agree that momentum exists as a source of outperformance and it can be observed throughout markets. The problem is accurately capturing it. All methods of doing so are using a lookback, i.e. backward looking to try to predict an unpredictable future. Do you have a 12 month lookback? How about 6 or 9 months? How often do you reconstitute... every 1, 3 or 6 months? Pick anyone of these combinations and you can observe past price performance to try to predict an unknown future.
So, these combinations are:
SPMO: 12 month lookback with a 6 month rebalance
FMTM: 6 month lookback with a 1 month rebalance
If either of them rotate to set of stocks, that then immediately enter into a correction, we've arrived upon a case of bad luck. SPMO had unbelievably GOOD luck when it reconstituted in late March near the bottom of the Hormuz pullback. It loaded up heavy on AI stocks and then shot to the moon during the post-Hormuz recovery. When the current top on June 30th came, SPMO took the hit on the chin and has held the high beta stocks all the way down. Now if it recovers by the next reconstitution date in late September, it will have done pretty well for itself. If the bounce we saw today is a dead-cat bounce, and the market piles down further, SPMO will suffer more.
Let's look at FMTM. It has a different, shorter lookback window. In April and May, it was looking back at stocks that went through the Hormuz volatility. Naturally, it held a more defensive basket of stocks (the ones that stayed afloat during March). FMTM's gains coming out of the Hormuz were more modest than SPMO's with its lower beta holdings. When FMTM reconstituted on June 29th, it was now looking back at all the AI stocks there were on fire in April and May. FMTM then rotated and synced up with SPMO at the very top, but without having had the monster gains SPMO had to get there. Then in July, it suffered all the downside that SPMO did and this is just a case of bad luck by aligning with about the worst timing possible.
Then, FMTM rebalanced on July 28th holding a few of the AI stocks, but has shifted more defensively. While SPMO dropped around \~3% on July 28 and 29, FMTM was dropping \~1% each day. It had instantly slowed down the bleeding instead of matching SPMO. Then on July 30, the market shot up and FMTM did not capture as much of the upside as SPMO did. If the market continues to rip up from here, you're gonna wish you had SPMO. If the market turns south for another leg down, you'll wish you had FMTM with its newly more conservative holdings. I'm not in the business a predicting the future, so that's why I hold both.
We now enter a period that is a great test for FMTM. Going heavy on AI on June 30th was bad luck. How it maneuvers its way from here is a big test for the algorithm. Instead of panic selling FMTM (which I won't), I will be using this period to evaluate how it gets out of a sticky situation. Let's see how SPMO vs FMTM behave from June 30 until Sep 18 when SPMO rebalances. Does rotating every month cause FMTM to whipsaw (or even worse, the dreaded "double-whipsaw")? Did FMTM just rotate into holdings that will now go down as folks rotate capital back into AI stocks? Or, do the AI stocks drop a mile from here and FMTM looks like a genius for cutting its losses and finding momentum elsewhere? What if SPMO's reconstitution date was June 30th (instead of in March) and it bought and then held AI stocks at the top for another 6 months (it could ride it all the way down, or hang on long enough to recover?)
I certainly hope that FMTM can show what it's made of. On paper, I find it an ideal 50/50 balance with SPMO. If SPMO holds decaying momentum too long, you'll want FMTM. If FMTM rotates too early, you'll enjoy the patience of SPMO. Pairing both together provides algorithm diversification... and you don't buy a momentum fund for its holdings (they change), you buy it for the algorithm and no momentum algorithm is perfect in all regimes. That's why I hold both.

BULLSHIT BOT. BAD BOT.

# SELL LOW BUY LOWER GANG NEEDS THE HOTLINE BAD

I HAVE A BAD FEELING ABOUT AMAZON

That mfer BAD 🕺🔥🔥🔥

BAD MATH -----------------

\*"SITUATION" NOT AS BAD AS FEARED--SOURCES
\*SALP -35% MTD, STILL UP SUBSTANTIALLY YTD
\*ANTHROPIC IS NOW 50% OF $20B REMAINING AUM
\*FIRM WAS 4X LEVERED AT TIMES
\*GSCO MET WITH SA TO DISCUSS ORDERLY LIQUIDATION LAST WEEK
\*SITUATION STILL FLUID (STACK)
4x levered at times. lmfaooooo bro was going full korean