AZEK
The AZEK Company Inc.
stock NYSE

I usually post quarterly updates after digesting the earnings call to see if my thesis is still valid or if something is fundamentally broken. I'm not a traditional value investor, which is why I'm not poor 😀 So, my calls will always seem hand-wavy from the typical value investing point of view. I detailed my approach in a write-up on my Substack. I do rely on quant models with statistically significant results in predicting trend reversal along with exit price within 12-18 months with high accuracy over decades of backtesting and years of live testing. The closest thing to my predicted exit price is typically Morningstar. However, valuation doesn't matter if the market stays irrational more than you can stay solvent. What matters is the likelihood of realizing this valuation within a reasonable time frame. To be honest, my picks usually take longer to rebound and this one was fast because of over-pessimism due to the AZEK acquisition.

Improved margins, especially in the Siding & Trim segment, and cost synergies from the AZEK integration are ahead of schedule. I usually post quarterly updates after digesting the earnings call.

I usually post quarterly updates after digesting the earnings call to see if my thesis is still valid or if something is fundamentally broken. I'm not a traditional value investor, which is why I'm not poor 😀 So, my calls will always seem hand-wavy from the typical value investing point of view. I detailed my approach in a write-up on my Substack. I do rely on quant models with statistically significant results in predicting trend reversal along with exit price within 12-18 months with high accuracy over decades of backtesting and years of live testing. The closest thing to my predicted exit price is typically Morningstar. However, valuation doesn't matter if the market stays irrational more than you can stay solvent. What matters is the likelihood of realizing this valuation within a reasonable time frame. To be honest, my picks usually take longer to rebound and this one was fast because of over-pessimism due to the AZEK acquisition.

Improved margins, especially in the Siding & Trim segment, and cost synergies from the AZEK integration are ahead of schedule. I usually post quarterly updates after digesting the earnings call.