AMPY
Amplify Energy Corp.
stock NYSE

I am a long term, value-oriented investor. I take positions in companies which trade at discounts to their intrinsic values and where downside risk is low compared to upside potential.
For the first quarter ended March 31st, 2026, my portfolio achieved a pre-tax return of **45**%, comparing well with the S&P 500's & the Russell 2000 negative returns. The excellent quarter was partly due to a couple of stocks with standout returns.
\- Ring Energy (REI) is a small-cap oil and natural gas company with a leveraged balance sheet, resulting in a high-risk / high-reward scenario. The company has taken a number of steps to reduce debt, with leverage expected to fall to 1.9x by year end. Enterprise value of $744 million, makes for a fairly attractive EV/FCF ratio. In my opinion, this is a situation where the odds are very good for the investor, considering the returns could be multiples of the current stock price. +75.86%.
\- AdvanSix (ASIX) is a producer of nylon solutions, plant nutrients and chemical intermediaries. I invested when it traded at nearly less than half of its tangible book value. At this massive discount with a well covered dividend, there was a massive margin of safety here. In addition, there is significant potential upside from carbon capture tax credits. I believe that the stock will continue to rise, all the way up to book value. +41.04%.
\- SunCoke Energy (SXC) operates as a producer of coke primarily in the U.S. On a market cap of $550 million, last year the company generated $110 million in operating cash flow. With no debt due until 2029, I would expect them to be able to weather any short-term bumps in the road. -9.58%
\- Amplify Energy (AMPY) is an oil company. After recent asset sales, AMPY is completely debt free, leaving the company with 1/4 of its market cap in cash. The company has a book value of $460 million, but it trades for just $270 million, despite recent earnings of $65 million. Overall, I think this is a market mis-pricing. +36.54%.
Prices for many issues fell this quarter, but unlike previous market dips, I found it hard to find value with the Iran situation making it more difficult to evaluate margins of safety. Leveraged oil companies have been on my radar due to their inherent risk making them more volatile, correlating with the volatility in oil prices.

I am a long term, value-oriented investor. I take positions in companies which trade at discounts to their intrinsic values and where downside risk is low compared to upside potential.
For the first quarter ended March 31st, 2026, my portfolio achieved a pre-tax return of **45**%, comparing well with the S&P 500's & the Russell 2000 negative returns. The excellent quarter was partly due to a couple of stocks with standout returns.
\- Ring Energy (REI) is a small-cap oil and natural gas company with a leveraged balance sheet, resulting in a high-risk / high-reward scenario. The company has taken a number of steps to reduce debt, with leverage expected to fall to 1.9x by year end. Enterprise value of $744 million, makes for a fairly attractive EV/FCF ratio. In my opinion, this is a situation where the odds are very good for the investor, considering the returns could be multiples of the current stock price. +75.86%.
\- AdvanSix (ASIX) is a producer of nylon solutions, plant nutrients and chemical intermediaries. I invested when it traded at nearly less than half of its tangible book value. At this massive discount with a well covered dividend, there was a massive margin of safety here. In addition, there is significant potential upside from carbon capture tax credits. I believe that the stock will continue to rise, all the way up to book value. +41.04%.
\- SunCoke Energy (SXC) operates as a producer of coke primarily in the U.S. On a market cap of $550 million, last year the company generated $110 million in operating cash flow. With no debt due until 2029, I would expect them to be able to weather any short-term bumps in the road. -9.58%
\- Amplify Energy (AMPY) is an oil company. After recent asset sales, AMPY is completely debt free, leaving the company with 1/4 of its market cap in cash. The company has a book value of $460 million, but it trades for just $270 million, despite recent earnings of $65 million. Overall, I think this is a market mis-pricing. +36.54%.
Prices for many issues fell this quarter, but unlike previous market dips, I found it hard to find value with the Iran situation making it more difficult to evaluate margins of safety. Leveraged oil companies have been on my radar due to their inherent risk making them more volatile, correlating with the volatility in oil prices.

TLDR: I believe OXY should be at least **3x its current share price**, in the scenario that oil stays elevated around 130 it should be roughly 7x current price. Peak price at the end of this bull cycle would be much higher in nominal terms.
I'm rounding numbers since all I care about is the ballpark and direction and this is just speculation, but I'm bothered that all the people on youtube seem to be just talking qualitatively. According to google the current cost to extract and transport for OXY is $38 per barrel, I am using $44 average (+15.6%) for my purpose since towards the end of reserve life cost may go up.
OXY has about 20 billion non oil reserve asset, 15 billion in debt as of feb 2026 after selling its Oxychem branch to Berkshire. So you take its 62 billion market cap minus 5 billion, the remaining $57 billion valuation divided by its claimed reserves of oil equivalent and additional assets is at 5 billion barrels, which is assuming OXY can turn its reserves into \~$11/barrel profit.
OXY has majority of its assets in the US at about 80-85%, and the rest in the middle eastern region, some risk since it is a target for Iran but it is the smaller portion of assets, the majority of its production is done so at a cost well below other producers close to major consumer market, with relatively small geopolitical risk.
Take $44+$11 = $55, throw in a few bucks safety factor for operational and geopolitical risks call it $60 bucks even. ***For every 11 dollar/barrel above $60 that crude is worth, this company should be worth another multiple.***
I don't believe the war is over any time soon, and damage is already done even if the war was to end this week, I think oil should be at least $90 for a couple of years, and the fact that we are not factoring any escalation and pessimistic scenarios is mind blowing to me. This feels like January of 2020 again, a slow moving train that everyone sees coming but no one is positioned correctly.
I am long oil, I cannot add to any more oil positions currently as I am all in on oil, tickers XOM, OXY, OIH, SM, MRNFF, RUBLF, DVN, MTDR, AMPY. I want others to pick apart my logic, but overall if I make any mistake it'd be details on % gains, direction wise OXY is absolutely undervalued, its upside potential is a easy bet to make compared to its downside, my average purchase cost is $48, Berkshire purchased their shares at an average of $53.

I am a long term, value-oriented investor. I take positions in companies which trade at discounts to their intrinsic values and where downside risk is low compared to upside potential.
For the first quarter ended March 31st, 2026, my portfolio achieved a pre-tax return of **45**%, comparing well with the S&P 500's & the Russell 2000 negative returns. The excellent quarter was partly due to a couple of stocks with standout returns.
* Ring Energy (REI) is a small-cap oil and natural gas company with a leveraged balance sheet, resulting in a high-risk / high-reward scenario. The company has taken a number of steps to reduce debt, with leverage expected to fall to 1.9x by year end. Enterprise value of $744 million, makes for a fairly attractive EV/FCF ratio. In my opinion, this is a situation where the odds are very good for the investor, considering the returns could be multiples of the current stock price. +75.86%.
* AdvanSix (ASIX) is a producer of nylon solutions, plant nutrients and chemical intermediaries. I invested when it traded at nearly less than half of its tangible book value. At this massive discount with a well covered dividend, there was a massive margin of safety here. In addition, there is significant potential upside from carbon capture tax credits. I believe that the stock will continue to rise, all the way up to book value. +41.04%.
* SunCoke Energy (SXC) operates as a producer of coke primarily in the U.S. On a market cap of $550 million, last year the company generated $110 million in operating cash flow. With no debt due until 2029, I would expect them to be able to weather any short-term bumps in the road. -9.58%.
* Amplify Energy (AMPY) is an oil company. After recent asset sales, AMPY is completely debt free, leaving the company with 1/4 of its market cap in cash. The company has a book value of $460 million, but it trades for just $270 million, despite recent earnings of $65 million. Overall, I think this is a market mis-pricing. +36.54%.
Prices for many issues fell this quarter, but unlike previous market dips, I found it hard to find value with the Iran situation making it more difficult to evaluate margins of safety.