VC
VISTEON CORPORATION
stock NASDAQ

People on this sub frequently rely on short interest and days to cover metrics that are published by FINRA bi-weekly. The argument then generally relies on, "Look guys here, high SI, high DTC, if this stock has a positive catalyst for this reason it can rip!". I have always had a couple of issues with those setups, one this is public info and everyone already knows it. Hedge funds may have more up to date non-public data from their broker network on the short availability so what does looking at this delayed data bring to the table? The second is simply that if you are then relying on a positive catalyst (people frequently mention BioTechs with trial results pending) then aren't you really just making a bull case based on fundamentals? Sure the high SI may give it some extra juice. If we look at the truly technical setups then we have to consider the VW squeeze from 2008 and more recently the Avis Budget (CAR) from earlier this year. Read about those, even Matt Levine from Bloomberg has written extensively about it. These were triggered due to a combination of very low float and then someone revealed they had soaked up whatever had remained and at some point the SI is much greater than 100% FF and it becomes a mechanical squeeze.
Here is another fun story. Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) listed in March, had a reported NAV of $19 and it went to $575 within 5 days of the listing. I am a pre-IPO investor with restricted shares and we have obsessed about every single detail of this stock over at the Fundrise and VCX subs (feel free to check them out). Fundrise was a REIT company that stumbled into VC investing around 2022 and they built a great portfolio (Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX/Anduril/Databricks you name it and in high fraction of the portfolio). It was a closed end fund, meanwhile the REIT business was really struggling. So Fundrise came up with this genius idea of listing the CEF on the stock exchange and issuing its REIT division some shares in hopes of harvesting the premium. What we know is that VCX had 35.8 million shares out of which 30.8 were locked up. They issued around 2.7 million shares to their REIT affiliate and the restricted shareholders were given another 2.3 million as unrestricted. People had trouble transferring these over from the custodian (ComputerShare) and meanwhile this took off on wsb and the tiny float (they were slowly trickling in their piece 5% a day) made it rip. This all made sense and then Citron published the famous short and it crashed. What happened a month later was very intriguing, it had slowly come down from $575 to about $75 till the 28th April but suddenly started running up again and hit $310. We all restricted share holders were very confused and some were mad at missing out on not being able to cash in 30x on our investment (earliest holders had paid $10). Some of us like me saw the opportunity to buy puts to ensure that we see some return. We all knew the post lockup tsunami was going to crush the price. The options were always quite expensive on this since the whole market knew the story but nonetheless it was worth paying for those. It has since trended down again albeit slowly and closed at around $55 on Friday. Then the surprise filing dropped yesterday. Remember I had earlier mentioned that the affiliate REIT was slowly trickling the shares at 5% volume to the market and they had close to 2 million shares to sell. Turns out the fund has to file an N-PORT and due to the MNPI rules they had to stop selling. They had stopped selling the shares on the 29th April and that is when it started ripping, low float with no natural supply was doing its trick. They only started selling again on the 2nd June and that's when it started its downward trend. Look at the filings for shares sold per day and the yahoo finance prices, it is something to look at and have the realization of how the setup worked.
Now to the interesting bit, the filing yesterday revealed that they are done selling their stake (inferred by most of us on the sub). They also pushed back the lockup expiry date from Sep 18th to Aug 14th (they stated price discovery has been achieved lol, while it is really about them selling what they had and harvesting the premium to save their REIT). But with the tap turned off again from now on till Aug 13th, what will happen? The last reported short interest on this is 643k shares (out of the 5ish million floating around) and mostly options MMs since a lot of us have bought puts expiring in October based on the original lockup date. It is pretty clear that the stock crashes come Aug 14th. But it has such a low volume recently (86k shares on Friday) that all bets are off. I personally have puts and restricted shares and was not able to position myself with any share buys since the news dropped post market and it took us a while to digest and confirm that they are done selling. The options are expensive so shares might be a better bet if one concludes that this may go up again. I will be a fascinating watch. Leaving this here for your enjoyment!

After almost 19 years of operations flipkart is still a VC and parent co. funded operation that hasn’t made a profit in its core business for a single year. I don’t think this will worry Zomato and Swiggy and the likes.

The 2021-25 narrative was consistently around infrastructure. The chains that got VC-funding were chains that made onchain transaction faster, cheaper, better DA, etc. There may have been "decentralization theater," but most of these chains were heavily centralized (at least compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum). Blockspace became the commodity and it was a race to 0.
The infrastructure thesis is dead. It doesn't work. It generates little revenue for the chain. 2025-26 has shown us it's the apps that make the money, and the next tier of winning chains will be the chains that own the app-stack.
Most people know Hyperliquid, but I actually want to highlight a lesser known chain, Katana, as evidence for my thesis around owning the stack. I've posted about Katana before and will continue to do so. In my opinion, it is the best chain for DeFi activity. The design of the chain is super powerful and is set up in a mutually beneficial way for users and the Katana foundation. So let's dive in.
An infrastructure-only chain provides rails and takes a toll on gas. The valuable activity on top, the lending, the trading, the yield, gets captured by the apps and market makers deploying there, not by the chain. So the chain subsidizes its own ecosystem with token emissions and VC money to attract that activity, and hopes the toll eventually covers it. Most never get there. A chain that owns its stack captures that value directly and funds its ecosystem out of revenue instead of out of a treasury on a timer.
Put it on a profit-and-loss basis and the gap is visible. Blockworks tracks gross profit by L2, and for 2026 Katana is second, behind only Arbitrum (Base & isn't included here for some reason). Katana's realized gross profit this year is about $2.3M, on a roughly $4.1M full-year forecast. Optimism sits near $400K, ZKsync and Unichain near $100K each, and the rest of the list trails from there. A chain less than a year old is more profitable than L2s that are years older and raised far more, and it's second only to the largest L2 in the sector. Not on volume, which anyone can subsidize, but on profit. (source: https://blockworks.com/analytics/l2).
The engine behind that profit is the bridge. Most chains let bridged assets sit idle in a contract. Katana's Vault Bridge deploys them into lending strategies on Ethereum and takes the yield as revenue, borrower-paid interest, not printed tokens. Blockworks shows that line running around $1M a quarter, roughly $1.4M in Q3 2025 and near $1M through late 2025 and early 2026. That is income the chain earns on capital it is holding anyway. It's the whole difference between funding your ecosystem from revenue and funding it from VC investment & your own token.
Perps are the piece growing fastest on top of that. Katana acquired the IDEX team and relaunched them as Katana Perps, and it is compounding. Daily notional volume has hit north of $22M with recent spikes toward $36M, cumulative volume is past half a billion dollars, and weekly perps revenue has gone from $760 in mid-April to roughly $30K by mid-July. Because the chain owns the venue and the bridge under it, that growth lands as chain revenue instead of leaking out to a frontend and its market makers.
And the chain can point that revenue back at the venue to grow it faster. The competition running now is that loop in the open. To mark crossing $500M in volume, Katana is paying $100,000 in vbUSDC with trading fees cut in half, July 22 to August 5. Funded from revenue, not a marketing budget on a countdown. Cheaper fees pull volume, volume makes fees, the bridge funds the next round. Disclosure: Perps are risky and it isn't open to US persons or a few regions (VPNs can be your friend).
Of course, chains like Hyperliquid & Arbitrum still out-earns Katana, and it should, it's much larger. The point isn't that Katana is the biggest. It's that a chain this young and this small is already the second most profitable L2 Blockworks tracks, while most of the sector is still running on emissions and venture money and calling it growth. Infrastructure is a commodity, and the price of a commodity goes to the floor. The chains that win from here are the ones that built a business on top of the infrastructure and kept the revenue. When the subsidies dry up, the profitable ones are what's left standing.
So yeah, I am majorly bullish on chains like Katana that own the stack. The DeFi activity & incentives are huge, but the incentives are done through sustainable mechanisms, which is so much better than what the industry norm is. Chains that help their users make money while they make money are the ones that will actually survive as the industry matures.

It ends when OpenAI and Anthropic have a hard time raising and can’t meet the RPOs OP mentioned.
The only way it continues is if those two companies become profitable and the VC demand converts into real demand.
Right now it’s a race between VC money running out and becoming profitable. Anthropic is allegedly moving towards profitability. OAI is as deeply unprofitable as ever from a revenue growth/cash burn growth perspective.

You can’t win here. I’ve gotten downvoted for saying RKLB was overvalued at $150 and explaining why, while I have 12 years of investment management experience and am a CFA & CAIA charter holder. The average redditor would rather downvote experts and go off their vibes.
For what it’s worth I agree with you on AI. It’s been successfully rolled out at my firm and at my girlfriend’s hospital. It’s quite literally saved her over an hour a day on patient note write ups. It’s helped my company’s deal flow and investment evaluations. When I worked in VC we say the cost of startups decline about 90% due to efficiencies from AI. This will take time to roll out across the economy.

Good breakdown. One thing worth adding: these four sectors aren't independent — they're increasingly interdependent in ways that compound the thesis for each.
RWA on L2 is the clearest example. Tokenized T-bills on Base or Arbitrum aren't just "T-bills on chain" — they become DeFi composable: used as collateral in Aave, as yield-bearing reserve assets in stablecoin protocols, or as the base layer for yield strategies on Pendle. The liquidity network effects are the actual value add, not the tokenization itself.
AI agents plugging into DeFi need L2's low gas costs to be economically viable — an agent making micro-decisions (rebalancing, harvesting yield) can't pay $20/tx. EIP-7702 session keys are what will actually unlock this, letting agents execute within scoped permissions without holding full custody. Base is the most advanced L2 on this right now.
DePIN creates the physical compute layer that AI models need, and tokenized rewards create the incentive flywheel to scale it without VC subsidy. Render, Akash, and similar networks are essentially building decentralized AWS — once you see it that way, DePIN and AI are the same bet framed differently.
The risk that the post doesn't mention: cross-chain RWA fragmentation. If tokenized securities settle on Arbitrum but your DeFi strategy is on Base, interoperability becomes the bottleneck. CCIP, LayerZero, and Circle's CCTP are solving pieces of this but it's not solved yet.

People on this sub frequently rely on short interest and days to cover metrics that are published by FINRA bi-weekly. The argument then generally relies on, "Look guys here, high SI, high DTC, if this stock has a positive catalyst for this reason it can rip!". I have always had a couple of issues with those setups, one this is public info and everyone already knows it. Hedge funds may have more up to date non-public data from their broker network on the short availability so what does looking at this delayed data bring to the table? The second is simply that if you are then relying on a positive catalyst (people frequently mention BioTechs with trial results pending) then aren't you really just making a bull case based on fundamentals? Sure the high SI may give it some extra juice. If we look at the truly technical setups then we have to consider the VW squeeze from 2008 and more recently the Avis Budget (CAR) from earlier this year. Read about those, even Matt Levine from Bloomberg has written extensively about it. These were triggered due to a combination of very low float and then someone revealed they had soaked up whatever had remained and at some point the SI is much greater than 100% FF and it becomes a mechanical squeeze.
Here is another fun story. Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) listed in March, had a reported NAV of $19 and it went to $575 within 5 days of the listing. I am a pre-IPO investor with restricted shares and we have obsessed about every single detail of this stock over at the Fundrise and VCX subs (feel free to check them out). Fundrise was a REIT company that stumbled into VC investing around 2022 and they built a great portfolio (Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX/Anduril/Databricks you name it and in high fraction of the portfolio). It was a closed end fund, meanwhile the REIT business was really struggling. So Fundrise came up with this genius idea of listing the CEF on the stock exchange and issuing its REIT division some shares in hopes of harvesting the premium. What we know is that VCX had 35.8 million shares out of which 30.8 were locked up. They issued around 2.7 million shares to their REIT affiliate and the restricted shareholders were given another 2.3 million as unrestricted. People had trouble transferring these over from the custodian (ComputerShare) and meanwhile this took off on wsb and the tiny float (they were slowly trickling in their piece 5% a day) made it rip. This all made sense and then Citron published the famous short and it crashed. What happened a month later was very intriguing, it had slowly come down from $575 to about $75 till the 28th April but suddenly started running up again and hit $310. We all restricted share holders were very confused and some were mad at missing out on not being able to cash in 30x on our investment (earliest holders had paid $10). Some of us like me saw the opportunity to buy puts to ensure that we see some return. We all knew the post lockup tsunami was going to crush the price. The options were always quite expensive on this since the whole market knew the story but nonetheless it was worth paying for those. It has since trended down again albeit slowly and closed at around $55 on Friday. Then the surprise filing dropped yesterday. Remember I had earlier mentioned that the affiliate REIT was slowly trickling the shares at 5% volume to the market and they had close to 2 million shares to sell. Turns out the fund has to file an N-PORT and due to the MNPI rules they had to stop selling. They had stopped selling the shares on the 29th April and that is when it started ripping, low float with no natural supply was doing its trick. They only started selling again on the 2nd June and that's when it started its downward trend. Look at the filings for shares sold per day and the yahoo finance prices, it is something to look at and have the realization of how the setup worked.
Now to the interesting bit, the filing yesterday revealed that they are done selling their stake (inferred by most of us on the sub). They also pushed back the lockup expiry date from Sep 18th to Aug 14th (they stated price discovery has been achieved lol, while it is really about them selling what they had and harvesting the premium to save their REIT). But with the tap turned off again from now on till Aug 13th, what will happen? The last reported short interest on this is 643k shares (out of the 5ish million floating around) and mostly options MMs since a lot of us have bought puts expiring in October based on the original lockup date. It is pretty clear that the stock crashes come Aug 14th. But it has such a low volume recently (86k shares on Friday) that all bets are off. I personally have puts and restricted shares and was not able to position myself with any share buys since the news dropped post market and it took us a while to digest and confirm that they are done selling. The options are expensive so shares might be a better bet if one concludes that this may go up again. I will be a fascinating watch. Leaving this here for your enjoyment!

After almost 19 years of operations flipkart is still a VC and parent co. funded operation that hasn’t made a profit in its core business for a single year. I don’t think this will worry Zomato and Swiggy and the likes.

The 2021-25 narrative was consistently around infrastructure. The chains that got VC-funding were chains that made onchain transaction faster, cheaper, better DA, etc. There may have been "decentralization theater," but most of these chains were heavily centralized (at least compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum). Blockspace became the commodity and it was a race to 0.
The infrastructure thesis is dead. It doesn't work. It generates little revenue for the chain. 2025-26 has shown us it's the apps that make the money, and the next tier of winning chains will be the chains that own the app-stack.
Most people know Hyperliquid, but I actually want to highlight a lesser known chain, Katana, as evidence for my thesis around owning the stack. I've posted about Katana before and will continue to do so. In my opinion, it is the best chain for DeFi activity. The design of the chain is super powerful and is set up in a mutually beneficial way for users and the Katana foundation. So let's dive in.
An infrastructure-only chain provides rails and takes a toll on gas. The valuable activity on top, the lending, the trading, the yield, gets captured by the apps and market makers deploying there, not by the chain. So the chain subsidizes its own ecosystem with token emissions and VC money to attract that activity, and hopes the toll eventually covers it. Most never get there. A chain that owns its stack captures that value directly and funds its ecosystem out of revenue instead of out of a treasury on a timer.
Put it on a profit-and-loss basis and the gap is visible. Blockworks tracks gross profit by L2, and for 2026 Katana is second, behind only Arbitrum (Base & isn't included here for some reason). Katana's realized gross profit this year is about $2.3M, on a roughly $4.1M full-year forecast. Optimism sits near $400K, ZKsync and Unichain near $100K each, and the rest of the list trails from there. A chain less than a year old is more profitable than L2s that are years older and raised far more, and it's second only to the largest L2 in the sector. Not on volume, which anyone can subsidize, but on profit. (source: https://blockworks.com/analytics/l2).
The engine behind that profit is the bridge. Most chains let bridged assets sit idle in a contract. Katana's Vault Bridge deploys them into lending strategies on Ethereum and takes the yield as revenue, borrower-paid interest, not printed tokens. Blockworks shows that line running around $1M a quarter, roughly $1.4M in Q3 2025 and near $1M through late 2025 and early 2026. That is income the chain earns on capital it is holding anyway. It's the whole difference between funding your ecosystem from revenue and funding it from VC investment & your own token.
Perps are the piece growing fastest on top of that. Katana acquired the IDEX team and relaunched them as Katana Perps, and it is compounding. Daily notional volume has hit north of $22M with recent spikes toward $36M, cumulative volume is past half a billion dollars, and weekly perps revenue has gone from $760 in mid-April to roughly $30K by mid-July. Because the chain owns the venue and the bridge under it, that growth lands as chain revenue instead of leaking out to a frontend and its market makers.
And the chain can point that revenue back at the venue to grow it faster. The competition running now is that loop in the open. To mark crossing $500M in volume, Katana is paying $100,000 in vbUSDC with trading fees cut in half, July 22 to August 5. Funded from revenue, not a marketing budget on a countdown. Cheaper fees pull volume, volume makes fees, the bridge funds the next round. Disclosure: Perps are risky and it isn't open to US persons or a few regions (VPNs can be your friend).
Of course, chains like Hyperliquid & Arbitrum still out-earns Katana, and it should, it's much larger. The point isn't that Katana is the biggest. It's that a chain this young and this small is already the second most profitable L2 Blockworks tracks, while most of the sector is still running on emissions and venture money and calling it growth. Infrastructure is a commodity, and the price of a commodity goes to the floor. The chains that win from here are the ones that built a business on top of the infrastructure and kept the revenue. When the subsidies dry up, the profitable ones are what's left standing.
So yeah, I am majorly bullish on chains like Katana that own the stack. The DeFi activity & incentives are huge, but the incentives are done through sustainable mechanisms, which is so much better than what the industry norm is. Chains that help their users make money while they make money are the ones that will actually survive as the industry matures.

It ends when OpenAI and Anthropic have a hard time raising and can’t meet the RPOs OP mentioned.
The only way it continues is if those two companies become profitable and the VC demand converts into real demand.
Right now it’s a race between VC money running out and becoming profitable. Anthropic is allegedly moving towards profitability. OAI is as deeply unprofitable as ever from a revenue growth/cash burn growth perspective.

You can’t win here. I’ve gotten downvoted for saying RKLB was overvalued at $150 and explaining why, while I have 12 years of investment management experience and am a CFA & CAIA charter holder. The average redditor would rather downvote experts and go off their vibes.
For what it’s worth I agree with you on AI. It’s been successfully rolled out at my firm and at my girlfriend’s hospital. It’s quite literally saved her over an hour a day on patient note write ups. It’s helped my company’s deal flow and investment evaluations. When I worked in VC we say the cost of startups decline about 90% due to efficiencies from AI. This will take time to roll out across the economy.

Good breakdown. One thing worth adding: these four sectors aren't independent — they're increasingly interdependent in ways that compound the thesis for each.
RWA on L2 is the clearest example. Tokenized T-bills on Base or Arbitrum aren't just "T-bills on chain" — they become DeFi composable: used as collateral in Aave, as yield-bearing reserve assets in stablecoin protocols, or as the base layer for yield strategies on Pendle. The liquidity network effects are the actual value add, not the tokenization itself.
AI agents plugging into DeFi need L2's low gas costs to be economically viable — an agent making micro-decisions (rebalancing, harvesting yield) can't pay $20/tx. EIP-7702 session keys are what will actually unlock this, letting agents execute within scoped permissions without holding full custody. Base is the most advanced L2 on this right now.
DePIN creates the physical compute layer that AI models need, and tokenized rewards create the incentive flywheel to scale it without VC subsidy. Render, Akash, and similar networks are essentially building decentralized AWS — once you see it that way, DePIN and AI are the same bet framed differently.
The risk that the post doesn't mention: cross-chain RWA fragmentation. If tokenized securities settle on Arbitrum but your DeFi strategy is on Base, interoperability becomes the bottleneck. CCIP, LayerZero, and Circle's CCTP are solving pieces of this but it's not solved yet.

"AI isn’t going anywhere, usage is growing, demand is growing, and the costs to serve the models is going down, not up."
All of these things are true, yet my point still stands. A lot of AI compute demand right now is entirely coming from VC funding.

I haven't seen Anthropic's financials, but I can tell you FOR SURE that OAI is bleeding an insane amount of money and that they're not getting anywhere close to profitability. Right now for them cash burn/revenue ratio is staying pretty constant. Their revenue growth is entirely reliant on increasing VC cash burn which is the entire issue I'm bringing up. 1/4 of the compute backlog/obligations right now is JUST openAI.
I know Anthropic is in a better financial position than OAI, but I haven't seen any evidence that they are profitable and don't have the same dynamic of being entirely reliant on increasing valuations and VC cash burn in order to fulfill compute obligations and increase revenue

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Why license when you could form an LLC of your own, use friend/family money and get VC/loans. Then you can keep much more of the profit.

Finally, someone who gets it.
The capex returns are predicated on the thesis that AI compute demand will continue to exceed AI compute supply.

However a large amount of the AI compute demand right now is coming from Anthropic and OpenAI burning VC money. These companies are hugely unprofitable right now and are already near $1T valuations.

If they can't keep raising at higher and higher valuations to burn higher and higher amounts of cash on compute, then a huge chunk of the AI compute demand disappears and it's likely that we will have more supply than demand and there won't be positive ROI on the capex.

Finally, someone who gets it.
The capex returns are predicated on the thesis that AI compute demand will continue to exceed AI compute supply.

However a large amount of the AI compute demand right now is coming from Anthropic and OpenAI burning VC money. These companies are hugely unprofitable right now and are already near $1T valuations.

If they can't keep raising at higher and higher valuations to burn higher and higher amounts of cash on compute, then a huge chunk of the AI compute demand disappears and it's likely that we will have more supply than demand and there won't be positive ROI on the capex.

Spent the last year and a half doing marketing for Web3 projects, a few of them DeFi launches. Not going to name clients, NDAs and all that but the difference between launches that hold TVL and launches that bleed out within two months has gotten so consistent it's almost boring.
The ones that survived had a real community before the token existed.
Actual users arguing about the product, in some cases for a year and only then a token. Hyperliquid is the obvious public example, no VC round airdrop to people who were already trading there and it held while most of the points era launches quietly bled out.

When the only conversation in a Discord is "wen token", the post launch chart writes itself.
Second thing and yes I see the irony of posting this here that the Reddit turned into a due diligence layer. Before depositing, people search "\[protocol\] ryg" or "\[protocol\] audit" and land in threads like this one.

A protocol with two years of real threads, complaints included, reads completely different from one whose entire Reddit footprint is shill accounts that mods here nuke on sight.
You can't buy that history retroactively, which is exactly why people trust it as a signal.
Third one crept up on everyone AI answers.

A growing share of new users just ask ChatGPT or Perplexity "is X safe" instead of reading docs. Those answers get assembled from docs, audits, GitHub and funny enough, Reddit threads. If the model knows nothing about a protocol or the top citation is some 2023 exploit writeup, that's the first impression now. It compounds, stuff written once keeps getting pulled into answers for years.
What quietly died paid KOL rounds and "impressions" reports. Watched budgets get burned on that with zero TVL to show for it. The launches that got all three layers right had either one obsessive in house person or a shop that treats community, Reddit and AI visibility as a single process. ICODA, I crossed paths with that actually works that way, most agencies still sell those as three separate invoices.
Though tbh a good in house person beats any agency on cost, if you can find one.
I won’t ask any questions everyone can express their opinion if they wish.

I'm the guy companies call to build AI solutions. I go "yeah use it for this and not for that". CTO for bespoke enterprise AI solutions company.
The scales they're thinking about are absolutely nuts and when VC stops funding token usage the prices are going to _explode_. Everyone is getting ready for this.
Most AI solutions are developed to cost _maybe_ dollars a month for active users in a business context.
They math it out like people will vibe code massive stacks for 100k$+ in token each. That'll be an absolutely minority. Any enterprise architect worth it's salt will flag that out way before IT sec gets involved. Execs are between a rock and a hard place and since AI deployment are not providing returns with _cheap as fuck_ tokens.
You don't use LLMs/agentic solutions/etc to flow data between systems, you use them to create a deterministic program that will do it securely.
Basically, it costs too much for what it does and when it'll cost less then you can run it elsewhere.
Big fat fucking bubble.

The demand is VC subsidized, it’s not organic. Both Anthropic and OpenAI sell tokens below cost.
A $200 subscription gets you like $2000 worth of tokens
Since each training run isn’t making money back on its own and each training run is costing more than the last, the only way to keep increasing revenue is to keep increasing cash burn. Since both companies are deeply unprofitable and becoming even more so, the only way to keep getting larger amounts of cash is through equity sales at higher valuations.
Both companies are around $1T today already. This party only keeps going if they can keep raising higher amounts at higher valuations and thats becoming increasingly harder now.