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At the moment 1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending. Of that 90%, 80%-ish of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies. This is per Ramp data. Chamath Palihapitiya had an analysis of this on X as well as in his All In podcast.

Chamath explains how VC funding circularity is giving AI the diffusion problem Ken Griffin is picking up on “So the cycle here, just to be very precise, is VCs raised from pension funds and LPs and foundations and family offices. They put money into a startup. That startup takes that money and invests in growth. Part of growing is by consuming other people’s AIs. And so that company then starts to show revenue traction. Those folks then say, hey, look how well we’re doing, raises a bunch of money from the same VCs. And it’s just this circularity.” “Why that’s important is what Ken is pointing out is that for AI to really scale as a predictable driver of long term earnings, it has to diffuse out of the startup ecosystem. And so you can’t be in a situation where on the one hand, you’re talking about breathtaking valuations. But we’re 75 cents of every dollar is actually just a startup sending it back and forth so that they can mark themselves up. That’s, I think, a structural problem.” “But the difference there is that AWS was abstracted from Amazon retail, which was already then a roughly breakeven profitable business, at least on a free cash flow basis. So what’s different here is you have a bunch of money losing entities just spinning a bunch of money around and it has to diffuse more broadly.” “They said, we have decreased our spend on AWS and GCP. We now have six completely independent ground up data centers that we’ve built from scratch for ourselves. And I was like, what is going on here?” “AI has a diffusion problem. It is too concentrated and ripping around in a small little ecosystem. We need to diffuse out. But as it diffuses out, people are picking open source is what I would tell you.” https://x.com/firesidealpha/status/2113786717794967589?s=46 This is the problem with ai valuation. The majority of the impressive growth is just raising more and more money, creating the illusion of native growth. There’s a finite amount of money that can be raised from pensions and vc. At some point you can’t raise the same amount the following year, let alone multiples more money like Spcx wants or needs. Thats why these companies are starting to go after outside money like OpenAI had to go to uae and globally since we’re running low on money already. I don’t think there’s been a riskier or more volatile time to invest lol.

Nothing for or against Jio, economically speaking, equity capital is far more expensive than debt capital (2x post tax), so raising equity to pay off debt because equity does not have interest obligation is not valid argument. Secondly, if one reads enough, an ROCE of 8+ is considered good enough. ROCE should be compared not only with Airtel but with every company which needs heavy capital investment. Then, commercial bank loans are generally fixed and given RIL’s might, they can borrow in foreign currency at much cheaper rate. Then is the thing about VC dump: they could have offered their shares in IPO and left, they are gambling that listing prices will stay elevated until lock in expiry if the argument of expected VC dump is to be bought. If one wants to really understand if the IPO is worth it, then one should look at profit record of company and what PE multiple the shares are being offered. The higher the multiple, the higher the risk of price correction. Indian equities trade at \~22x PE which is high compared to global and historical averages.

Look, having dealt with RIL as a supplier myself and a lot of second-hand accounts I will concede, that RIL and the whole ecosystem of Mukabhai is built to extract money for themselves and leave little for others. Shareholders, employees, customers, vendors, doesn't matter - if they pay 1 rupee, the mentality is to extract 10 from you. So, I would not be surprised if Jio IPO is **not** a bumper lottery for investors and gives little to no listing gains and stay stagnant for a year or two post listing. However, I in good faith cannot align with the narrative of this post and many other self-proclaimed finance gurus. I'll give a few counter-points. 1. **Low oversubscription in retail**: This IPO was $3.58B in size and final combined value of retail (open + employee + shareholder) was $1.61 billion, or 45% of Jio Platforms. For reference, the biggest IPO on the planet, SpaceX, had $15B allocated for retail subscribers. An Indian IPO trying to fill through Indian retail investors, **>10% of what the biggest IPO on Earth did**, in the middle of a bear market, would have been the dumbest shit in the history of stock market if it came from anyone except Reliance and Ambanis. They not only did it, they got > 3x oversubscription on that. 2. **Utilization of IPO proceeds in debt repayment**: Jio has already done the CapEx over last 12 years, and are making good use of it. If they want to use IPO to wash away $3B of loans in a high interest environment, how is that a bad deal? Not having to pay $300-320 million annually in Interests, is not some accounting trick - it is actual money saved, and it will have positive a ripple effect. This is nothing unusual in a historical sense either. Also, Jio IPO DRHP was filed in June, and anyone remotely following finance knows of the increasing debt rates since a year. All that sinister framing is BS. 3. **Looming VC dump**: This might come, which wouldn't be something new either. However, clearly not enough VCs wanted to dump their stakes, which is why there's 0% OFS share in this IPO. That is an exceptionally strong indicator especially in the context of bad INR performance and market-wide weakness in Indian stocks right now. 4. **tHe LItIgAtIoN ShAdOw**: The bulk of that ₹44,187 crore figure consists of ongoing litigations involving RIL as the primary promoter group, including all its specific group entities and directors. RIL is the largest conglomerate in India and operates across heavily regulated sectors (energy, petrochemicals, retail, and digital). It naturally accumulates an enormous footprint of multi-decade legal disputes viz., corporate tax appeals, customs/excise duty disagreements with the government, and environmental litigation. That's the cost of doing mega-sized business, lala. That number is less than a quarter's EBITDA or 2 quarters' PAT of RIL, to give some context. There are only two criticisms that I'd say are legit. First is the brand ownership of "Jio" TM by RIL and the complicated distribution structure where all of Jio's recharges go through Reliance Retail, are actually weird. They make one feel like RIL could want to re-absorb Jio on day, and do open up the risk of Reliance Retail and RIL using Jio as an on-demand war chest they can extract cash flow from by simply tweaking their fess/margins. Second I would say is the capital efficiency, which is half than what Airtel is able to maintain. My core thesis is that this IPO is textbook Mukesh Ambani - massive scale, optimally priced, and intentionally boring for speculators.

Yes but with the expectation that profits will come? Its not VC money buying AI, its consumers buying AI. VC's are funding the build out to supply the AI. So again your point was that unless consumers are buying AI there is no demand, but that makes no sense because consumers are buying AI services. Billions is being spent on consumption every month already.

Agree, but their customers are the consumers and the businesses paying for AI services and while they are investing a fortune in compute right now the expectation is that increasing demand from those consumers will eventually pay the bills. The VC's are there to fund them until that happens. So the AI compute actually is being sold to consumers, thats the point I am trying to make.

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I might be reading this wrong, but I think he's saying founders of companies that receive/court VC money don't receive much of anything upon sale of the company. However the VC deals are structure eats away at their equity/return. VC is doing fine, the company founders are not.

Reading all the comments you just brought forth an interesting point: BTC is now backed by a system, gov's real world assets, hobbiest buying and selling stuff and tieing the value to btc, companies, techies, financial institutions, whole economies, micro/macro financial systems, savings & retirements, payments gateways and systems etc... and is responsible for liquid movements in the market and trade. The prices have a lot of resistance points backed by systems and checkpoints. To realistically break it they'd have to systematically break down the whole system including the nodes and mining rigs and traders and ecommercers and sellers and people in the blockchain system itself. Also, ironically burning BTC will only increase the value. I am maybe no economist but I think it hypothetically going to 0 would be very peculiar situation unless maybe otherwise stated. Glad the famed VC asked the question it allowed me to do my own deep research to come to this conclusion (I didn't know BTC had such a breadth of economic and financial utility).

How much was invested by VCs in those companies sold for 7 figure deals? It is like,y that the invested cash was 7 figures or more. Most VC startups either fail, or they get sold/rolled up at close to breakeven. Just a small minority of VC startups are successful. So most founders coming out with losses is not surprising. —————————- There is a silver lining in the VCs getting preferred shares. That means that the fair market valuation of your common share options can be at a fraction of the latest price VCs paid for their preferred shares. So the gain from my option exercise price to current market price is greater than 1,000,000%.

World ain't getting safer and I think there's another last supper moment coming for VC backed Defense Tech. The primes as the going to have an M&A field day when all these startups run out of runway. Bullish.

Bingo, capitalisms squeezed its way into VC spheres just as much as anywhere else. If anything, there’s even less loyalty and humanity, just chasing paper. The ideal environment for cannibalistic capitalism

Zero interest during covid did not help. Most if not all of the LLM bubble's fuel is VC money and they got fat as hell during the zero interest years and SaaS plays. They've been on a long loosing street since though.

In 2018, Andreessen Horowitz made a splash in the venture capital world by launching a spinoff dedicated to digital assets called a16z Crypto. Eight years later—perhaps recognizing that the term “crypto” has fallen out of favor—the VC giant announced Thursday that it was rebranding to a16z Frontier, and expanding its scope to back startups developing artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. Managing partner Chris Dixon will lead the fund alongside Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, and general partners Eddy Lazzarin and Guy Wuollet. The shift expands the scope of its $2.2 billion fund announced in May, though the firm will continue backing crypto startups and advocating for crypto regulation.  As more businesses use blockchain technology behind the scenes, the distinction between crypto companies and other businesses is becoming less clear, Dixon wrote in an X article.   The firm had begun investing beyond crypto before Thursday’s announcement. In June, a16z Crypto led a $33 million seed round for Ornn, a company developing financial products for the AI computing market. In October 2025, Andreessen Horowitz co-led a funding round for prediction market Kalshi. Read more \[paywall removed for Redditors\]: [https://fortune.com/2026/10/22/venture-giant-andreessen-horowitz-crypto-name-blockchain-fund-rebrands-a16z-frontier/?utm\_source=reddit/](https://fortune.com/2026/10/22/venture-giant-andreessen-horowitz-crypto-name-blockchain-fund-rebrands-a16z-frontier/?utm_source=reddit/)

Most of the IPO are there to pay off their debt. There is nothing new about it. But if the IPO pays the entire debt, then that company becomes debt and that is the biggest plus point for investors. Imagine an already established company with high market share, and good reputation. Even though it will not innovate, if it can operate for next 10 years and earn the same profits as of today then it is going to pay high dividends. But Jio platforms will not even pay 50% of the debt. **Brand ownership** will have zero impact. **Capital efficiency** is low but I have always heard stories that Jio works even remote locations where Airtel does not even reach. And those are poor people who will share one connection with 10+ people, so earning potential is low. And if you don't recharge for 80 days, your number will still work as your own. Its just that Jio is more lenient than its competitors (which is good for consumers). Disclosure: I don't have a Jio sim, but have travelled to remote villages where the locals say that Jio network works well there. Obviously there are place in cities where Airtel works better. But Capital efficiency cannot be an issue here. **VC dumps** happen in most of the IPO there is nothing new. Every VC wants to earn profits and most of them know that demand for new stocks are higher due to FOMO and they can get better prices. Obviously Reliance people have already informed the other investment firms to buy their share and this will also show huge volume of trading on the market which is a good indicator for any stock. The **Litigation shadow** which affects RIL before Jio platforms will be there and the spillover effect might reflect on the stock price for Jio platforms. But it has still not stopped RIL and government will make under the table deals surely (which I don't like either). As long as people believe in RIL, then there will be some belief in Jio platforms. The only reason I am not buying into the IPO is because of my morals. Reliance has done nothing good for the country. It is just using predatory techniques and its huge capital to change the market dynamics. Who knows, they will do the same for the investors. 30 thousand crores is a huge number and many do not know that it is a low amount for the ultra rich.

Famed VC is playing the oldest game in the book. FUD on the asset, crash the price, buy it all.

\*\*Jio IPO is a massive trap and the marketing is pure manufactured FOMO. Here’s the real math.\*\* If you’ve turned on a TV, opened a newspaper, or scrolled through Instagram this week, you’ve been absolutely spammed by Jio’s massive \*\*₹30,213 crore IPO\*\* campaign. They are trying desperately to make this feel like a historic, can't-miss event. But if you actually read the fine print in their Red Herring Prospectus (RHP), it looks less like a tech breakthrough and more like a massive corporate cleanup. Here is the unfiltered breakdown of what’s happening behind the multi-crore ad budget. 1. The Retail Flop vs. The Hype \* \*\*The Ads:\*\* "Invest in India's digital future!" \* \*\*The Reality:\*\* Retail investors aren't buying it. The retail quota is barely scraping past \*\*\\\~2.1x subscription\*\*. Compare that to the \*\*Tata Technologies IPO\*\*, which spent zero rupees on TV ads but got smashed \*\*69x overall\*\* purely because people trusted the Tata name and the valuation was fair. \* \*\*Who is actually buying Jio?\*\* Huge institutional funds (QIBs) are covering the book, but mostly because they are forced to track index weightage given Jio's massive size. 2. Where is your ₹30,000 Crore actually going? This is a \*\*100% Fresh Issue\*\*, meaning the money goes straight to the company's bank account. But they aren't using a single rupee of it to build AI, launch new tech, or innovate. \* \*\*₹27,500 crore (91%) is going straight to banks to pay off old loans.\*\* \* Jio built its 5G network on a horrifying mountain of debt. Their total liabilities are a staggering \*\*₹1.7 lakh crore\*\* (which includes over ₹1 lakh crore they owe the government for spectrum). \* Clearing bank debt saves them \*\*₹2,200 crore a year in interest\*\*, which will make their net profit look artificially boosted on paper—but it does absolutely nothing to grow the actual business. 3. The "Fishy" Repo Rate Timing Look at the calendar. Just a couple of weeks ago (October 7, 2026), the RBI unexpectedly hiked the repo rate to \*\*5.50%\*\* and signaled that interest rates are going to stay high. \* \*\*The Play:\*\* Reliance’s corporate economists saw the writing on the wall—bank debt is about to get brutally expensive. \* \*\*The Move:\*\* By rushing this IPO out \*right now\*, they are dumping their floating-rate bank loans and swapping them for \*\*public equity\*\*. Equity capital doesn't require monthly interest checks or maturity dates. They effectively dumped their interest-rate risk onto public retail investors right before the macro storm hits. 4. The Massive Red Flags They Cleanly Omitted From TV \* \*\*Zero Brand Ownership:\*\* Jio Platforms \*\*does not even own the "Jio" trademark\*\*. It belongs to the parent company, Reliance Industries (RIL). If RIL hits a massive corporate scandal, Jio Platforms takes the reputational hit but has zero legal power to protect its own name. \* \*\*Terrible Capital Efficiency:\*\* Despite having 533 million users, Jio's Return on Capital Employed (\*\*RoCE\*\*) is a weak \*\*10.76%\*\*. For comparison, Bharti Airtel sits at a highly efficient \*\*19%\*\*. Jio is just not efficient at turning capital into high-margin profits. \* \*\*The Looming VC Dump:\*\* Foreign VC giants (KKR, Silver Lake, Meta) who invested back in 2020 are currently locked into this IPO because it’s a Fresh Issue, not an Offer for Sale. The absolute second their post-IPO lock-in expires, expect massive institutional dumping on the open market, which will tank the stock price. \* \*\*The Litigation Shadow:\*\* Hidden deep in the legal disclosures are \*\*₹44,187 crore\*\* in outstanding lawsuits against the promoter group. \*\*TL;DR:\*\* The ads want you to think you're buying into India's next-gen tech frontier. In reality, you're just paying off Ambani's bank loans right before interest rates spike, buying into a company with low capital efficiency, zero brand ownership, and massive promoter baggage. The current Grey Market Premium (GMP) is sitting at a weak \*\*\\\~21%\*\* (around ₹245). This isn't going to be a multi-bagger listing. Proceed with massive caution.

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Bitcoin Will Hit $0, Says Famed VC, as Standard Chartered Expands Crypto Business

Not a Reliance or Ambani supporter. But just consider these points once. 1. Tata Tech IPO Retail portion was 923 cr. Oversubscribed by 16.5 times. Application amount - Rs 15230 cr. Jio retail portion is Rs 9500 cr. Oversubscribed by 2.74 times. Application amount - Rs 26000 cr. And this with a very muted GMP. Tata Tech GMP was almost 100% which fetched more retail participation. 2. Where 30000 cr is going. Jio required heavy investments upfront to create the infra. Now it doesnot need that much new investment. So obviously the proceeds will go for paying off the loan as you said. Fishy thing would be if loan was not paid and pro.oters themselves got the money. 3. Repo Rate. When one studies cost of capital. It is a very basic thing that cost of equity is always the highest and cost of debt is always lower. So no business would give up equity just to save on debt interest. 4. Massive Red Flags. a.) A massive If. A scandal can hit Jio itself. This is an argument just for the sake for it. b.)Weak RoCE implies high investment in physical assets. Oversubscribed the time it will improve as it has sin case of Airtel also. c.) Post VC Dump happens in many cases. Might also happen in this one. But that is also a future contingency. 5. Weak GMP. Check historically. Any IPO of this size or even a bit smaller, didn't have even 20% GMP. Still i would say the GMP is on the lower side. So application in this IPO can be avoided as market sentiment is also weak and this GMP may also fade and become 0 the time it opens.

I hate reliance, i love to see the title and tdlr, but the content you put is not well taught through content and has many flaws 1. For 8k crore ipo 2.x time over subscription is big Hundai, NSE are all fail to get that; for tata check the ipo size. 2. Return on capital employed, Jio has bought hotstar and other host of digital platform and it's yet to pay back; on other hand Airtel only operate as telecom and DTH operator; so no vide digital platform 3. Fresh issue to payback loan actually made them debt free and dilute VC investor share and profit, that new investor need not bother. The GMP is usual Reliance trick and I am sure it list with gains and in 2-3 days it fall back on some losses

Jio IPO is a massive trap and the marketing is pure manufactured FOMO. Here’s the real math. If you’ve turned on a TV, opened a newspaper, or scrolled through Instagram this week, you’ve been absolutely spammed by Jio’s massive ₹30,213 crore IPO campaign. They are trying desperately to make this feel like a historic, can't-miss event. But if you actually read the fine print in their Red Herring Prospectus (RHP), it looks less like a tech breakthrough and more like a massive corporate cleanup. Here is the unfiltered breakdown of what’s happening behind the multi-crore ad budget. 1. The Retail Flop vs. The Hype The Ads: "Invest in India's digital future!" The Reality: Retail investors aren't buying it. The retail quota is barely scraping past ~2.1x subscription. Compare that to the Tata Technologies IPO, which spent zero rupees on TV ads but got smashed 69x overall purely because people trusted the Tata name and the valuation was fair. Who is actually buying Jio? Huge institutional funds (QIBs) are covering the book, but mostly because they are forced to track index weightage given Jio's massive size. 2. Where is your ₹30,000 Crore actually going? This is a 100% Fresh Issue, meaning the money goes straight to the company's bank account. But they aren't using a single rupee of it to build AI, launch new tech, or innovate. ₹27,500 crore (91%) is going straight to banks to pay off old loans. Jio built its 5G network on a horrifying mountain of debt. Their total liabilities are a staggering ₹1.7 lakh crore (which includes over ₹1 lakh crore they owe the government for spectrum). Clearing bank debt saves them ₹2,200 crore a year in interest, which will make their net profit look artificially boosted on paper—but it does absolutely nothing to grow the actual business. 3. The "Fishy" Repo Rate Timing Look at the calendar. Just a couple of weeks ago (October 7, 2026), the RBI unexpectedly hiked the repo rate to 5.50% and signaled that interest rates are going to stay high. The Play: Reliance’s corporate economists saw the writing on the wall—bank debt is about to get brutally expensive. The Move: By rushing this IPO out right now, they are dumping their floating-rate bank loans and swapping them for public equity. Equity capital doesn't require monthly interest checks or maturity dates. They effectively dumped their interest-rate risk onto public retail investors right before the macro storm hits. 4. The Massive Red Flags They Cleanly Omitted From TV Zero Brand Ownership: Jio Platforms does not even own the "Jio" trademark. It belongs to the parent company, Reliance Industries (RIL). If RIL hits a massive corporate scandal, Jio Platforms takes the reputational hit but has zero legal power to protect its own name. Terrible Capital Efficiency: Despite having 533 million users, Jio's Return on Capital Employed ( RoCE) is a weak 10.76%. For comparison, Bharti Airtel sits at a highly efficient 19%. Jio is just not efficient at turning capital into high-margin profits. The Looming VC Dump: Foreign VC giants (KKR, Silver Lake, Meta) who invested back in 2020 are currently locked into this IPO because it’s a Fresh Issue, not an Offer for Sale. The absolute second their post-IPO lock-in expires, expect massive institutional dumping on the open market, which will tank the stock price. The Litigation Shadow: Hidden deep in the legal disclosures are ₹44,187 crore in outstanding lawsuits against the promoter group. TL;DR: The ads want you to think you're buying into India's next-gen tech frontier. In reality, you're just paying off Ambani's bank loans right before interest rates spike, buying into a company with low capital efficiency, zero brand ownership, and massive promoter baggage. The current Grey Market Premium (GMP) is sitting at a weak ~21% (around ₹245). This isn't going to be a multi-bagger listing. Proceed with massive caution.

Yeah, that makes sense. Jio has a strong core business even without the new ventures taking off. The VC exit point is interesting though — could that put pressure on the stock after listing? 👀

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They went public because of filing requirements due to number of employee share holders rather than many rounds of external VC. So really doesn't apply. If they raise capital same way Google did this year maybe they would want voting rights especially if raised from institutional investors.