ROI
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Let's look at Google. They want to spend 200-300 Billion dollars in capex for their Cloud (GCP) business that is growing 103% YoY. In other words, they are spending all of their cash and then some, gaining negative Free cash flow (FCF) in order to finance their data center buildouts, increase production of TPUs, buy RAM/CPUs/GPUs from everyone they can source from in order to do what exactly? To serve the 500 BILLION dollars in backlog customers they have signed up for the next 12-36 months that want more compute. In other words, it's not based on air, it's based on actual demand = ROI on that capex spend. There is no bubble as long as demand is there. And all earnings we have seen last week points to what? that CAPEX spend is not only slowing, it's increasing. So the issue is not an AI Bubble, it's fear. It's fear that the Capex Spend might not pay off, but in fact, it already is paying off. So no, it's not a god damn bubble unless demand goes down, which there's absolutely no sign off doing in the next 10 years. We are in the infancy of AI and Robotics.

I think Wall Street has done their research and seen companies struggle to define their ROI in AI adoption — even engineering productivity increases haven’t materialized to better product. The costs outran the revenue by so much people might come to their senses and we can treat this like the mobile app development boom of yesteryear

What independent (not invested in) data warrant this ridiculous fantasy in this graph? What numbers point to anything resembling this? This is like a graph I would hand my landlord after being short on rent 2-3 months in a row. He'll trust me bro, it's consensus. What the fuck does that even mean lmao. All studies have pointed to business not getting any ROI and drastically pulling back, and 70-80% of the public sick of AI and data centers. Show me the money.

Declining U.S. user base for 2 quarters in a row and projected in Q4 as well. Soon ARPU will take a hit and then overall advertising revenue when companies are seeing less ROI on their ad spend. Failing to innovate anything and changing the moderation system to fully AI and remove all restrictions from new accounts posting and commenting in subreddits. Complete lack of any AI licensing deals. I could see the multiple compressing to 10-12 before the next earnings report easily.

Google search changed their bidding algorithm, lots of advertisers are complaining that their ads became expensive and ROI is low or non-existent. They did it to pump numbers as legacy web is becoming obsolete. AI is eating their core business, hence the dump on stock price. It is not visible on revenue level, yet.

it all depends on compute demand. If compute demand is strong but a neocloud gets in trouble with contracts or has really shitty business practices and declares bankruptcy, those GPUs/assets will be very valuable and the CSP can be purchased or operated profitably by another. ANd worse comes to worse nvidia and others have massive capital that can actually backstop \~50b+ worth of losses. (again, this large of a loss is incredibly unlikely if compute demand stays high). The big issue still comes back to . . . what is the demand for compute? if we reach a tipping point where compute demand goes way down and everyone is on the edge of bankruptcy? yes, one bankruptcy could send everything over the edge. There are other issues as well . . . say demand stays strong but capex stops increasing and demand for compute goes flat in 2027? what do you think will happen to all the huge orders everyone put in for more memory and wafers? there will be huge huge huge inventory issues, prices will tank, margins will tank, etc. AMD will undoubtedly also plummet. But they might be able to avoid the worst of it by being more price competitive and having better ROI products and take some of nvidia market share. But that would be ugly, but CSPs (depending on future purchase obligations), still might be OK.

I have my best setup in terms of ROI to a good friend of mine, even told him where to buy and where to cut. Well, he fcked it up cause he added when it went up and then had to cut entire position when it pulled back half of it's move. Because I did not add a sit went up my stop wasn't even close. Anyways, I'm out of the trade and made 70K profit on tht trade and also have a $12K cashed secure put on it tht is plsu $7K as of Friday. My point is all the basic strategies are well known. But some people will just fck em up as they don't have that 6th sense. I took basic strategies and adjusted them to get 10 setups that work under certain market conditions. A setup that makes money for me can lose money for another and vice versa. Have to experiment small size first.

This has to be one of the best ROI I seen printed with $120

Why? The news is all bad. Contested election coming soon. No ROI on hyperscaler capex. No end to the wars. Balls to the wall puts

Korrekt, das konnten nur Menschen die entweder sehr kompetent und intelligent waren oder solche aus gutem Hause wo sich Eltern Gymnasium und Studium für ihre Kinder leisten konnten. Deswegen haben wir auch einen immensen Qualitätsverlust in diesem Beruf zu verzeichnen. Der ROI hat gepasst, das ist heute nicht mehr so

>he ROI for me is clearly there. yes that is not in question, the ROI for your company is

AI is definitely real. The bigger question is how these AI companies are actually going to make money from it. Right now, ROI is the biggest concern, especially when borrowing money is getting more expensive.

2% is not big? Here is a calulation for you. If market drops 2% everyday, it will 50% from current in just 35 trading sessions.. 2% may be a ROI for an year and if it happens in a day, it is big.

i agree, but some wallets like Satoshi’s would have quite a good ROI, no?

Making slides which was the most boring of my job has been automated. I assume every company in the world will eventually do this. What AI is doing is removing a lot tasks that had no value, My productivity is shot through the roof and for sure I am getting my company more business. the ROI for me is clearly there.

I am glad you are not the ceo. Spend money where you can get ROI. Your proposals to spend the cash as fast as you get it is absurd unless you can prove a return on it. Translations; doesnt google already translate pages for you? Maybe it wouldnt hurt to have it built in for reddit, but it isnt going to be revolutionary. Why do they need engineers? The only thing reddit needs to get better at doing is targeting advertisements to the right people. I guarantee you they are already workin on that. spending money just because you have it is stupid when you have a business that prints money. Warren Buffett knew this about Sees candy. It makes a pile of money. But if you pour a bunch of money into advertising you dont get a return. its flat. For example i will be willing to bet that the average sports fan does not actually want or need a forum in their life to discuss their team. They already do that with their friends and family. source: I am friends and family. Let them fail to communicate their earnings calls. Cheaper shares for me to accumulate. The money will speak soon enough.

This. It isn't just the lack of a moat, it's lack of even a partial, leaking moat when Anthropic **would need $800 billion in revenue just to break even**, the circular financing mass fraud and the most painfully obvious pump and dump and rug-pull schemes blatantly structured into the IPO, It's such fantastically stupid pie in the sky math to begin with, even if they had a moat there's not enough free cash in the economy to ever make them profitable, the AGI and ASI talk are pure BS (and not controllable and useless to businesses if they even were doable), even the AI boosters Apollo admitted [the ROI sucks](https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector), [Americans overwhelmingly hate AI tech shoved down their throats](https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/americans-turn-against-ai-poll) and pushback gets infinitely worse, and then the whole [circular financing](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-circular-deals/) circle jerk that's basically[ Enron fraud mixed with Bernie Madoff](https://www.openmarketsinstitute.org/publications/brace-for-impact-report-release) and the [whole 2008 financial crisis](https://www.thetimes.com/business/technology/article/imf-warns-technology-circular-deals-systemic-risk-global-financing-d9v2wxsms) derivatives mess [on steroid](https://informedclearly.com/en/ai/62307/bis-circular-ai-financing-systemic-risk-2026)s. All this while debt servicing and financing are soaring indefinitely into the future with over $40 trillion and soon $50 trillion in public debt and almost $20 trillion in household private debt in the US, which means more and more pricey bond costs and the junk or near-junk ratings for Anthropic, Oracle and Coreweave are only going to get massively more expensive and crushing. **And Dario and the other insiders clearly know it**, that's why the almost stupidly insulting terms of the IPO that practically scream "come and be a bagholder for us to cash out at your expense, retail dumbass" And here's the thing, as bad as that (still horrendous) "best case scenario" would be, it's even worse because Anthropic has no moat. Open-weights generally, not even just from China and Europe (maybe soon even Japan and Korea too) can just be the mole in whack-a-mole, [pop up perpetually](https://qz.com/ai-us-china-open-models-deepseek-qwen) [with cheaper](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/businesses-experimenting-cheaper-chinese-ai-185931713.html) [and](https://enlyft.com/tech/products/mistral-ai) often [better AI options](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/chinese-ai-models-costs-us-openai-anthropic.html) that any business would have to use to survive or they get token-maxxed into [bankruptcy or huge overhead costs](https://imfounder.com/science-tech/ai/ai-token-maxing-crisis/), like [has already happened](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/ai-token-costs-tokenomics-foundation-enterprise-spending/)\--prompting companies to introduce strict token use restrictions, more reason Anthropic's revenue fantasies are mathematically impossible. And despite all the copium, China isn't just copying or distill frontier AI's, they're doing a lot of the original research now, with more efficient and working AI's and their own EUV and GPU supply chain and cheaper conditions in general, means a low ceiling forever for AI token usage and no moat or profitability. Which Dario and the Anthropic club clearly know, thus the bizarre terms basically allow them to cash out on Day 1, and get F-shares so retail shareholders are even more powerless except to be regarded exit liquidity. The AI bubble is even worse than a bubble because it's dragged otherwise solid Big Tech into the bloodbath and even the hyperscalers and shovel-sellers, who can never meet these insane revenue much less profit fantasies either. Anthropic, openAI and SpaceX have basically lit the biggest cash-burning bonfire in history, and it's sucking the whole US economy into it unless it bursts before causing even more damage. Even the dumbest degenerate regard should do a double-take and stay away from this money-burning IPO fire, and the whole AI hype and any associated sectors until

No bubble. 4 of the mag 7 have seen negative ROI over the last year. Despite record level growth. That is what every self proclaimed stock analyst isn't getting. Take nvdia for example. Peaked at 211 October of last year. Google was 281 exactly 1 year ago today. The companies have grown but the stock prices have been suppressed. Some of the small and mid cap tech and AI companies have already dropped 60 to 70 percent from all time highs. How can a bubble form when the mag 7 has flat lined for a year straight ( with the exception of Apple)and and many other AI companies are at the bottom end of their 52 week average.

Dude, its wallstreet that is having a mental episode... "We will make a electronical god and ask it how to be profitable... The entire worlds job market is our market... Yes, we have 100% ROI for hiring out servers, and it will always be 100% or more!"... Saying stuff like this and then you look over what they have created it is video creating llm that creates 8 seconds of video before breaking... value? 1000 billions... Or 20 agents that help you organize your emails and can also(in the future) order you a pizza... value? 1000 billions... This model can remove the clothes on all your female coworkers.. value? 1000 billions in attorney fees.... This model can create over 7 million apps each minute.. value? 1000 billions... Yes, if the machine had intelligence it would be different, but also... if your mom had wheels she would be a bicycle...

Retarded is seeing things as black and white. * AI is real with genuine and permanent transformations of how we work and live. * AI is a bubble. * AI spending lacks discipline and needs to be much more targeted, focused and generate actual ROI. All things are true.

I do find it peculiar that hardware prices are not retreating at all and still going up. And that 2030 forecast for when supply might actually catch up to demand is still looking firm. I think the issue is that the data centers buildout is needed. We are not yet at the compute floor needed for all the AI stuff that’s coming. But this infrastructure buildout is not likely to be profitable. This might be like building railroads. Laying all that track requires huge capital expenditure and it must be done before it can generate any revenue. And it doesn’t look like there is a practical road to profitability. This might be where China really eats our lunch. Infrastructure is a state’s responsibility. Governments can absorb that kind of price shock without needing immediate ROI. Capitalist businesses can’t. So Chinese companies probably won’t meet the same financial calamity that the American brands are. And I’m honestly not sure this administration is going to prevent Chinese firms buying up the debris at pennies on the dollar once those debt payments start to fail and companies go broke. We need the hardware. But I don’t think that’s infrastructure build is something that can be done in America without causing distress once the bill comes due.

idk, it seems goog may be stagnant until their next earnings call and proved to Wall Street the ROI is there. I don’t see the sentiment changing any time soon

User decline is just the beginning. ARPU follows that and then so does ad spend so decreased revenue when advertisers start seeing less ROI. Pinterest and Snapchat can’t get passed 5-6B so there’s no reason to believe Reddit will be able to do that with far less users than both those platforms.

This is a well reasoned and well written post that also happens to be wrong. The market has consistently since February been overlooking oil and macro-remember all the Street predictions of $150 oil? no one thinks, and quite rightly, that Trump is going to put boots on the ground or do anything more than has already occurred. Plus all the evidence is that the blockade and sanctions on money flow is really choking Tehran. (BTW this isn't a political point, it's factual-I don't like the war etc etc.) There are two main reasons IMO: First, there is fear that some data centers will not be complete or built in the quantity we need because of money-can enough money be raised, what will that money cost (%) is there enough power for the centers we will need, will the politicians kill some of this capacity? Musk called it "dead compute," data centers that might be abandoned half built or not built because the money dried up as banks raise the cost of money and the requirements for pay back. The entire AI system requires that the we build enough data centers to justify the gigantic investments and spending of the hyperscalers. The banks are now nervous about the proposed investments showing real scalable ROI's. This is not a demand problem-demand is insatiable and everyone knows compute power is scarce and valuable. It's a supply problem. Second, timing: it's quite normal and natural for violent pullbacks to occur within strong bull markets in volatile stocks and sectors, Combine that with the typical pullbacks we see in the lead up to mid term elections, and also very importantly-- the huge amount of margin debt and leverage that has ben underpinning the winning stocks in this sector has been being unwound the last few weeks. The defense rests

Nonsense. ROI for AI doesn't, and won't ever, exist. Burry saying so first, too early, doesn't make him wrong. Huang repeated as much 2 weeks ago. Oil has nothing to do with this. At all. Bye.