MSFT
Microsoft Corp
stockNASDAQ

There is no bubble; \-Hyperscalers: have been steadily going up like they should and are investing to stay competitive like they should. MSFT, GOOGL, Amazon ->buy now or be quiet forever \-Chips/semiconductors/memory: These are just cyclical and the price should be very high just as expected. These will go down because cyclicality, not due to "AI bubble bursting" per-se \-Neoclouds: these are more speculative and going down due to not being profitable/having high debt -> nothing to do with "AI bubble bursting" per-se. Just like biotechs that are in clinical trial stage etc. \-Other infrastructure building (data center hype -benefiters): also cyclical, nothing to do with "Ai bubble bursting" per-se \-Energy stocks that related to data center energy consumption hype: this is more case specific

**BanBet Lost** — /u/WailingWarbler (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** ▼ | $524.72 → $499.00 | -4.9% | 1w | Lost |

Redditors were convinced Google would pull a MSFT when it was only 20% off of ATHs. It really hasn’t underperformed for that long yet and had a massive run up not that long ago. That said I bought some at $320 and $280 because I do think it will bounce eventually. Might be holding for a while though

Yea, some people don't really understand the facts. The Mag7 have cash up their ass. In fact, there were so much cash that 5 of them started spending it wildly. MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, and NVDA are throwing cash everywhere to see where it sticks.

i thought MSFT was down due to SAAS-pocalypse fears earlier in the year.

It’s based on info now, not speculation Google already see a competitor with one billion users, and another competitor spending 200 billion per year to capture shopping Microsoft still sees Claude being mainly a coding assistant. MSFT would be a strong sell when Antrophic introduces their own business softwares

Yeah, I've been tracking increasing bearish indicators all the way back from honestly July (this is when I made portfolio adjustments toward a defensive posture). But a lot of those would end up getting negated. But yeah, it's really hard to ignore how about every major index has put in a topping pattern. You have a number of the last remaining stocks that were holding things up starting to do the same. PLTR for instance has an insane shooting star on the monthly. And that huge bearish engulfer on the Nasdaq is looming pretty large over the entire tech sector now. The only thing salvaging things on Friday was a bit of a late day rally over our good ol' friend: meaningless peace deal rumors. Memory has been one of the sectors that really put me on alert. It has just been in continuous collapse since June. Even as MU and SNDK tried to push back into bullish territory, STX and WDC had already completed topping patterns. MU is trying to hang on for dear life because it has some insulation because of their HBM, but SNDK collapses into a downtrend channel. Another good guidepost for me has been the KORU chart. It has the most glorious topping pattern you'll ever see and was one of the first indicators to me something was changing. So as I break out everything related to the AI trade and try to divide it into strengths and weaknesses and what has a meaningful chance at pushing us higher... there ain't much. At least from a leadership position. MSFT's chart is the only hyperscaler that is not brutal, and even that could have potentially just put in a triple top. The lesser chip trade is cracking as stuff is getting repriced from that Intel report indicating the home PC business is dead atm. AMD might just add fuel to that fire this week. That really leaves like... does this market want to just all in Nvidia for one last push up? But Nvidia just completed its own topping pattern last week... So I'm struggling to see at this point any rally as anything other than countertrend until proven solidly otherwise.

GOOGL is like MSFT earlier this year. Free money

MSFT is a good bet to be a winner, but I'm guessing they'll make more on cloud serving AI than AI (models)

Yea I think that’s the argument for companies like GOOG, META, and MSFT (or maybe even TSLA), they can bundle in existing products. I do not have a very strong opinion but I can see the argument, I do not know how much is already priced in.

Good move. Genius move, that’s all I can say. MSFT and AAPL are in a ATH, so there is limited upside to these stocks IMO. however, for Meta & Google, there could be further downside, but I suspect it will be a lot.

I actually DCA’d into index funds starting in 2003 but I’m a school teacher so I couldn’t do the max until I got to the top of the salary schedule, and then I discovered FIRE and started adding to my 457 as well. My first stock was MSFT, just 2k from a college scholarship in 1998, so individual stocks didn’t begin until I 2016. I got interested in finance and stock picking was a hobby. The plan was to retire at 55 with my pension and retirement accounts covering my expenses, however I can hopefully retire at 52 if the economy stays stable or at least flat from now until then. It’s been a grind (work is stressful) but I’m grateful that I started early with small additions to retirement accounts that slowly increased and also compounded. And also of course for hitting some home runs with individual stocks (although I never invest more than 5k into one stock anymore, that’s my personal limit). Good luck with your journey 👍🏽

My total max additional would be $25k more. $15k done. I loaded the truck on GOOG in June 2025 then was up nearly 100% now down to 20% or so. Of course I regret not selling at the top. But I’m not selling now even though 20% on one’s biggest position in 17 months is not too bad for a giant company. I sold my whole position in MSFT instead to help fund more shares in RDDT. I was up 25% on MSFT this year and I while I think it’s by far the lowest risk of mega tech having a really smart approach to AI, it’s seems fairly valued to me and not sure it will beat the S&P. GOOG seems significantly undervalued due to well known fears around low ad density of AI Mode/Overviews. GOOG has an exemplary track record of capital allocation (unlike Meta for example) and brilliant M&As. I’m will to hold GOOG as I still fully believe in them even if they face some challenges.

I don’t think you know what spending commitments means. It’s the ideal path for everyone, but it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Case in point: MSFT just lowered their CAPEX spending for 2027 and many others will do the same.

I agree the demand looks real, and I'm holding NVDA, MSFT and GOOG through the swings. I'd just be careful timing it off sentiment, since fear can stay high longer than you'd expect. For me the better signal is whether the big buyers keep growing cloud revenue fast enough to justify the spend.

At some point hyper scalers will cut capex. And chip stocks will go back to where they belong in the double-digit price range. And hyper-scaler stocks will surge. $META $MSFT $AMZN 🚀

MSFT is an easy buy/hold. Solid business and growing. There are no signs their enterprise business will be disrupted. GOOGL likely a buy but search is a major issue they did not show how to solve yet

90% of the time a stranger on the internet tells you something is is 50% accurate. That’s what I always tell people… and sadly it is becoming more and more true. Now with AI, it is becoming so easy to just BS and lie and sound smart without having any idea what you are talking about. Since everyone seems to be in this race to be the fake most impressive or important person in the room, I decided to try to run a different race. One that lets other people do the hard work for me. Shameless Cloning (this is my thanks to Mr. Pabrai. I just submitted to the idea that I’m just not the smartest investor. I’m just not the best in the world… and once you accept that, you can let others just do the research for you (I promise it is better this way). I currently hold about 25 positions… all of them have been copied from 13f filings, form 4s, and the stock act PTR (politician trades). I currently hold the following MSFT AAPL HD META MU UNH T SPCX BRK.B NVDA APH STX SNDK ALAB AMZN TXG MRVL NBIS DNTH CRDO RLAY ABVX TSM VSH RVMD A majority of these were bought at different times between February and September and right now the current holdings average a 4.3% return… I know that sounds awful (the ai selloff has hurt), but this strategy has been working. I have sold a lot to date and currently have a 15.5% return YTD vs the SPY at 11% My most recent purchase has been APH - bought on September 10 because I watched a large group of politicians buy the stock in a relatively short period of time. I am down 2.5% on the position and it only makes up like 1.5-3% of my portfolio anyway, but I wanted to share this because sometimes we need to just remember we don’t have to do it all ourselves. Btw, my largest current holdings are MSFT, AAPL, HD and MU all of which are a collective unweighted average of 9% gains right now. I am happy to explain the picks in more detail if people like, or go more into my previous trades from this year! But I promise it is literally just using free data — let me emphasize FREE!! DO NOT PAY FOR INSIDER TRADING info — these people are so full of crap! Insider trade copying has been provably worse than th spy even when accounting for the “open market purchases only.” I have done the math and that comes out to be 10.4% a year since 2015 with a 55% win rate and the spy over the same period did 12% a year. Last thing then I’ll shut up… my best trades this year have been selling out of purchases from last year. From 13Fs I sold LITE (300%) CIEN (173%) and ECHO (103%) and from insiders and politicians I sold AVGO (136%) GOOG (118%) and AMAT (102%) Almost all of these were purchased in mid to late 2025 and sold in mid 2026. I’ll keep updating for everyone!

Get rid of QQQ and VGT - you don’t need them. Redirect the money from those positions into SCHD and MSFT. if you really want tech, then consider starting positions in AVGO, NVDA, YXN and CSCO since these are dividend growth stocks. GOOGL is another good choice, especially after the sell-off. Next, I’d look into starting positions in tech-adjacent stocks in other sectors, such as V, MRK, LMT and MCD as examples. This diversifies you a bit while still giving you tech exposure with a dividend growth tilt.

MSFT and AAPL more likely than those two

\~$1.1M portfolio: 1.25 BTC (\~$100k, largest position), mega-cap tech (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, TSM), VOO/QQQ/VGT, blue chips (JPM, V, MA, BRK.B, COST, LLY, JNJ, KO, HD), plus a little SCHD and SGOV. Most top holdings yield under 1%, and BTC yields nothing. I'm up 54%, so any rotation means a tax bill. Goal: $30k/yr in dividends over the next few years without torching the gains. \- Sell BTC first since it pays nothing, or keep it as the growth sleeve and trim tech? \- Sell and rotate, or just redirect new money and dividends into SCHD and dividend growers? \- Which blue chips would you keep as-is?

I disagree. GOOGL MSFT AMZN META are the big spenders keeping this all afloat. Once they secure their AI cloud infrastructure and stop spending, this oligopoly will be the primary beneficiaries  Anthropic and OpenAI will just layer on

I sold MSFT calls as well, and it faded into profit. For someone so pessimistic about the market, you're oddly worried about call selling. 🧐

Micron, NVDA, AMD, and several others were sold and put into SCHD or some great buying opportunities like INTU and MSFT crash.

Did I mention MSFT or other companies?