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THE CASE FOR $GME.WS EXTENSION, OTM & ITM
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CUSIP: 36467W117
117 MASTER CHIEF
1) IT KILLS THE FREE DECAY TRADE. A short warrant into a timed expiration is a bet that $32 never prints. Let it expire OTM and the shorts keep all of the premium. Extend and the time value leaps, Long warrants win. Shorts get fuk'd.
2) THE COMPANY RESERVED THE POWER. Extending is a tool, not a favor.
3) CASH-IN CAPITAL IS OPTIMAL. Expire OTM and the company gets nothing, in fact it loses $50 million. That equity is at a premium compared to today's $21.99.
4) IT IS NOT THE SAME-OLD DILUTION THAT BULLS HATE. ATM share offerings and convert exchanges print shares at a low market price. If the stock is at $40, we dilute price, not give away shares at $18. Stay below $32 and the feared dilution stays on hold, it doesn't happen until the stock actually works. @ryancohen doesn't have to make an announcement that kills the run.
5) IT SEPERATES "SHARE COUNT" FROM "ECONOMIC SHARE COUNT". Yes, fully exercised means 59 million shares. The company gets $1.9 billion cash. But this is far less likely to occur all at once, as with an extension many will hold. So the dilution is far more gradual rather than a nuke to a run. That cash is more gunpowder for buybacks, acquisitions, and a stronger fortress. Dilution-only math ignores the benefit to the company.
6) RYAN COHEN EXCERCISING IS THE BIGGEST DIK MOVE EVER. He holds 3.73 million warrants. Cash exercise costs him 119 million. That is 5x larger than his recent open market buy. This shows confidence beyond belief.
7) TWO HOLDER BEHAVIORS TIGHTEN THE WARRANT.
a) Holders who sell GME.WS into a rally: shorts and market makers who are short the warrant have to buy them.
b) Holders who exercise means warrants leave the float, new common is issued, cash hits the company.
Either path reduces tradable warrant inventory. A thin supply does not need huge short books to move violently if supply is locked.
8) COMMON CAN BENEFIT BEFORE EVERYONE EXCERCISES. Warrants are equivalent to a listed call. When you extend them, you reprice an entirely new layer of asymmetrical upside potential. Hedgie turdwads who are short warrants \[or short common against long warrants\] must adjust. That is a bid for $GME.WS first, and most often a bid or squeeze-cover bid for the commons if hedgies were using commons as a... hedge.
9) IT BUYS TIME FOR THE ACTUAL STORY. Patience pays. Cohen is patient. The eBay stake, collectibles mix, $BBBYQ G ORG, convert cleanup, buyback authorization... None of that is finished in 6 weeks. A late October expiration forces a binary while the stock is still under strike. An extension says the option is meant to be used as the business works, not a Halloween lotto ticket.
10) IT IS ALIGNED WITH THE PRINCIPLE OF AMENDING TERMS WHEN IT HELPS THE CAP. They already rewrote the convert exchange to add cash and cap the share print. Extending warrants is the same family of move: control when and on what terms optional equity hits, instead of letting a calendar decide.
TL:DR - Holders keep a live call; shorts of that call lose their expiry edge; the company keeps a path to premium cash; common gets a bid from hedging and from the signal. The people who “hate dilution” only lose if they refuse to count the $32.
CONTINUE TO PART 2...
🧵 \[2/2\]
HE ULTIMATE MOVE: EXTEND ITM
1) INTRINSIC VALUE ENTERS THE STAGE. Above $32, each warrant is worth at least Common Price - 32. Shorts cannot wait for theta. They cover, or they face exercise and delivery. That is a different animal from a $2.20 option on a $22 stock.
2) EXCERCISE BECOMES THE DEFAULT. Below $32, exercise is retarded. Above $32, it's genius and big brain IQ becomes exponential. Warrant inventory shrinks rapidly. Panic ensues. Squeeze.
3) SHORT WARRANTS BECOME AN ENORMOUS LOCATE PROBLEM. If the Synthetic Short thesis IS true, that the dividend issued resulted in more Warrants needed than exist, ITM is when that discrepancy is revealed. It proves the synthetic short thesis to the market. Hidden or hedged shorts plus market-maker inventory plus any borrowed warrants that get recalled is the MOASS catalyst.
4) COMMON SHORTS HAVE AN EVEN BIGGER PROBLEM. New shares from exercise increase supply, which is the anti-squeeze for common. The offset: those shares were paid for at $32, many will be held (Cohen, DRS types), and anyone still short common now faces a company that just took in cash at a premium and a CEO who just wrote a $120 million check. Borrow can tighten if the new shares are not lent. That is a massive “inventory shrink, short demand up” loop.
5) COHEN'S EXCERCISE IS NO LONGER CHARITY. Exercising OTM is philanthropy and a pipe dream. Exercising ITM is an enormous Form-4 that would make headlines. This is the MAXIMUM display of confidence possible in any scenario from our CEO right now.
6) CAPITAL MARKETS MATH BECOMES A NO-BRAINER: Gamestop issues 59 million shares and takes in $1.9 billion at $32 while the stock trades above $32. It's gradual. It's a successful call. It is planned a year in advance. It's not an AMC style rescue raise. It funds Cohen's next move without an unexpected smackdown of the ATM.
7) IT IS THE ONLY PATH WHERE DILUTION-HATERS AND SQUEEZE-HAWKS ARE ALIGNED:
OTM expiry: no dilution, no cash, warrants to zero, shorts of warrants win.
OTM extension: warrants rip on time value, still little exercise.
ITM + extension (or ITM into expiry): warrants have to be dealt with, cash comes in, Cohen can size in, and the float argument becomes “new shares exist but they were bought, not dumped.”
This combination, both Warrants going in-the-money AND extension is the maximum pressure, best case scenario that could possibly unfold. It is also the version that requires the stock to get there, as an extension does not print $32 by itself.
So, in short, in my ever-so-humble opinion, the benefits to extending the warrants in either scenario, OTM or ITM, massively outweighs the wasteful inaction of just allowing them to expire worthless.
Warrant holders are showing the greatest confidence in Ryan Cohen compared to anyone else in the market.
Warrant holders are betting on more than just Gamestop:
They are betting on Ryan Cohen himself.
I do not believe Cohen will forsake that confidence.
$GME $GMEWS $GME.WS

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