IQ Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Peter Lynch's core idea is that ordinary investors have real informational advantages that Wall Street misses. You know which restaurant is packed, which software your team actually uses, which product line is quietly growing.
I wanted to apply that framework to three companies I've actually worked at. Fair warning: the most recent was Nike ending in 2022, so this isn't inside information. It's personal observations combined with the true FCF screener I run on 16 years of SEC XBRL data.
The valuations to start: LRN at 11.8% true FCF yield, ROP at 6.2%, NKE at 4.1%. LRN and ROP pass my basic screen of paying more than the risk-free rate while NKE does not.
Stride (LRN): I never actually worked for Stride directly. I worked for KC Distance Learning, which operated IQ Academies and was eventually acquired into the K12 universe. The 11.8% true FCF yield looks compelling and the float is shrinking aggressively. But there are public reports from at least one district alleging ghost students on enrollment rolls, the company disputes it, the CEO departure looked abrupt rather than planned, and I have no firsthand knowledge of the allegation but also can't model around it. The incentive structure in online charter education creates real pressure toward aggressive enrollment tactics - per-pupil public funding that follows enrollment in a very compressed enrollment season. The moat is real. The incumbent position is genuine. Conditional buy if the governance questions get answered.
Roper Technologies (ROP): I worked supporting DAT Solutions, their freight brokerage software, in 2012-2013. Genuinely results-driven data culture. Weekly business reviews where every team presented comprehensive data on their world. The most important analytical observation from my time there was watching what happened when Roper acquired a smaller competitor. The decline was exponential. Fewer loads meant fewer truckers checking the platform, which meant even fewer loads, which accelerated the exit of truckers. Two-sided marketplace collapse is nonlinear because both sides reinforce each other. That same dynamic protects DAT on the upside. More loads attract more truckers which attracts more loads. At 6.2% true FCF yield with a share count starting to decline, this is a buy. The only reason I don't own it is I already own FDS with similar metrics and what I think is a better AI monetization path.
Nike (NKE): Worked there twice, 2016 and 2018-2022. Smart energetic people who genuinely cared. The talent and culture are not the problem. The 4% true FCF yield with declining revenue and FCF since 2022-23 doesn't pass my screen, and the market seems to be counting on a Jordan-era recovery that I'm skeptical is coming. My theory: the Jordan era was a genuine cultural monoculture moment requiring a kind of gravity that's rarer in a fragmented subreddit world. Before Jordan, Nike's real moat was running. I ran in Zoom Flys during COVID and loved them. Then switched to Asics Superblasts and Hoka Skyflows. The other brands caught up in a space Nike was supposed to own. Nike is a good company being right-sized for a more fragmented era.
Full piece with annual and quarterly charts for all three: [https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/invest-in-what-you-know-part-i-some](https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/invest-in-what-you-know-part-i-some)

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