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He is asking allies to drain their emergency stocks so American gas prices come down before November 3. Every barrel they hold back is a barrel of political pain he eats. The IEA release in March was a legitimate collective response to a supply shock; a second round, requested bilaterally, timed to a US election, to cover for a war the allies didn't start, is a different thing. Europe can say, truthfully, that its reserves exist for European emergencies and that diesel is tight at home. The pain is real (European diesel is already spiking and Britain is in crisis talks), but it's pain they are going to feel anyway as long as Hormuz is closed. They'd be refusing to subsidize his campaign with their insurance policy, not manufacturing a new crisis.
Let's face it; the diesel ban is a bluff and a see through one. The threat is much weaker than it sounds. US refiners run crude to make gasoline and diesel together; banning diesel exports backs up refineries, cuts runs, and reduces gasoline output. Trump has acknowledged a diesel export ban could have a negative impact on gasoline, and the Gulf Coast refining lobby would scream. A 90-day ban would hurt Europe for a quarter and hurt his own pump prices and his own donors at the same time. If France and Germany stand still, the ban either doesn't happen or it does and he owns the fallout.
The only ally with a direct hand on US pump prices is Canada. Roughly 4 million barrels a day of heavy crude flow to Midwest refineries that are physically built for it and cannot easily substitute. An export levy or a throttle would hit gasoline in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania within weeks. Add Ontario and Quebec electricity and Saskatchewan potash and you have real swing-state pain. Canada won't consider it until after the flu trucks clan folks in Alberta get over their little secession vote, so that powder will be kept dry until after the vote, which only leaves two weeks to inflict damage on the US. Midwest crack spreads and WCS differentials would move within hours, the futures curve would react the same day, and wholesale gasoline in PADD 2 could move 10-30 cents a gallon on anticipation alone. Some of that reaches the pump by election day, most doesn't. Carney won't play that card - not enough impact and the political cost at home would be too high.
To use Trumpleforeskin's own words against him, "He doesn't have the cards."

Komisch, dass man sowas bei der freiesten Straße von Hummus aller Zeiten überhaupt braucht 🥲💄🤡
***EU COORDINATES POSSIBLE ENERGY RESERVE RELEASE WITH U.S.***: *The European Commission says it is in high-level talks with the U.S. administration over the global oil market and potential emergency stock releases. Brussels is coordinating EU member states’ positions through the IEA, describing the situation as a “global energy price crisis.” The talks come as Washington pressures Europe to release emergency diesel inventories* – Blühberg

He is asking allies to drain their emergency stocks so American gas prices come down before November 3. Every barrel they hold back is a barrel of political pain he eats. The IEA release in March was a legitimate collective response to a supply shock; a second round, requested bilaterally, timed to a US election, to cover for a war the allies didn't start, is a different thing. Europe can say, truthfully, that its reserves exist for European emergencies and that diesel is tight at home. The pain is real (European diesel is already spiking and Britain is in crisis talks), but it's pain they are going to feel anyway as long as Hormuz is closed. They'd be refusing to subsidize his campaign with their insurance policy, not manufacturing a new crisis.
Let's face it; the diesel ban is a bluff and a see through one. The threat is much weaker than it sounds. US refiners run crude to make gasoline and diesel together; banning diesel exports backs up refineries, cuts runs, and reduces gasoline output. Trump has acknowledged a diesel export ban could have a negative impact on gasoline, and the Gulf Coast refining lobby would scream. A 90-day ban would hurt Europe for a quarter and hurt his own pump prices and his own donors at the same time. If France and Germany stand still, the ban either doesn't happen or it does and he owns the fallout.
The only ally with a direct hand on US pump prices is Canada. Roughly 4 million barrels a day of heavy crude flow to Midwest refineries that are physically built for it and cannot easily substitute. An export levy or a throttle would hit gasoline in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania within weeks. Add Ontario and Quebec electricity and Saskatchewan potash and you have real swing-state pain. Canada won't consider it until after the flu trucks clan folks in Alberta get over their little secession vote, so that powder will be kept dry until after the vote, which only leaves two weeks to inflict damage on the US. Midwest crack spreads and WCS differentials would move within hours, the futures curve would react the same day, and wholesale gasoline in PADD 2 could move 10-30 cents a gallon on anticipation alone. Some of that reaches the pump by election day, most doesn't. Carney won't play that card - not enough impact and the political cost at home would be too high.
To use Trumpleforeskin's own words against him, "He doesn't have the cards."

Komisch, dass man sowas bei der freiesten Straße von Hummus aller Zeiten überhaupt braucht 🥲💄🤡
***EU COORDINATES POSSIBLE ENERGY RESERVE RELEASE WITH U.S.***: *The European Commission says it is in high-level talks with the U.S. administration over the global oil market and potential emergency stock releases. Brussels is coordinating EU member states’ positions through the IEA, describing the situation as a “global energy price crisis.” The talks come as Washington pressures Europe to release emergency diesel inventories* – Blühberg

I’ve been comparing these three lately because they all look interesting over the long term, just for completely different reasons.
**Copper** feels like the backbone trade.
Grids, EVs, data centres, renewables and construction all pull on the same metal. The IEA expects copper demand to add about **7 million tonnes by 2040**, while its current project pipeline still points to a roughly **25% projected gap between mine supply and primary supply requirements in 2035**. 
**Uranium** feels more like a capacity race.
Global reactor requirements are estimated at about **68,920 tU in 2025** and rise to just over **150,000 tU by 2040** in the World Nuclear Association’s reference scenario. The supply question gets more interesting as existing mines deplete and more primary production is needed to support reactor demand. 
**Gold** is playing a completely different game.
Its demand is driven less by industrial expansion and more by investment, central-bank buying and macro uncertainty. In 2025, total gold demand reached about **5,002 tonnes**, central banks bought **863 tonnes**, and mine production was about **3,672 tonnes**. Recycling added another **1,404 tonnes** to supply. 
**If you had to pick one to invest in today, which would it be?**
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