HOVR
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. Class A
stock NASDAQ

So how's HOVR doing?

So how's HOVR doing?

This will get downvoted by the believers and bag holders, but HOVR will fail due to a very small payload. I would love for them to succeed, but physics does have rules.

Also, I don't think there are any 'real' competitors.
Archer might be fine, but they're several years behind Joby right now. And I think they'll have a worse platform when they actually get to market (heavier, shorter range, etc).
Beta is D.O.A as far as I'm concerned. Same concerns as Archer (Beta actually hasn't even started the certification process for their VTOL craft), and I don't think they'll get much community buy-in since [their aircraft is loud as crap](https://substack.com/@riskpremium/note/c-270730369?r=1r289e).
I actually thought Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) was interesting, but their [management bungled their liquidity situation](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1vqxx2f/vertical_aerospace_is_down_86_ytd_its_an/).
Those are the Big-4. There are some others like HOVR that aren't really in the running.

Do you realize at $200 even if they did no dilution whatsoever (no chance), its market cap would be greater than Subaru?
Of course they’re almost certainly going to dilute to about 500M shares, at which point its market cap would be $100M…almost twice that of Ford…almost as much as Lockheed.
$200 is insane. HOVR says they could scale to up to 200 aircraft a year which is about 1/4 of all the helicopters sold in the world last year. Even if they managed to sell that many at an average cost of $10M each, that’s only $2B in annual revenue. Which means at $100B market cap, they’d have to trade at 50x sales.
It’s definitely gonna be a long hold alright. You gonna be holding until Boeing buys them out and then still wait another 50 years after that.