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Today I finally sold my entire Tilray position. 2,500 shares, roughly an 80% loss.
I’ve been here since APHA in 2019, so this wasn’t an easy sell for me. I held through Aphria, the merger, legalization hype, acquisitions, “synergies,” diversification, and pretty much every new story we were given about why things were eventually going to turn around.
At some point though, you have to stop thinking about what you paid for a stock and ask yourself a simple question: if I had this money in cash today, would I buy this company again?
For me, the answer was no.
Probably the biggest lesson I learned from TLRY is to take dilution seriously. I kept convincing myself that dilution was temporary, or necessary for growth, or that eventually the growth would outweigh it. But when a company keeps issuing shares, your piece of the company keeps getting smaller. Revenue growth doesn't mean nearly as much when the denominator keeps growing with it.
I also learned not to keep holding a stock just because management keeps giving you another reason to wait. There's always another quarter, another acquisition, another regulatory catalyst, another cost-saving target, another promise that things will look different a year from now.
And one of the most frustrating parts for me has been corporate governance. As a small shareholder, I eventually felt like there was very little I could realistically do about the direction of the company, executive compensation, capital allocation, or continued dilution. I became increasingly dissatisfied with Irwin Simon's leadership and with a board that, in my view, hasn't provided the kind of accountability I wanted to see.
Maybe TLRY turns around from here. Maybe cannabis reform finally changes the economics. Maybe selling today ends up being terrible timing. I genuinely don't know.
But I realized that “I've already lost 80%, so I might as well hold” isn't an investment thesis.
I moved what was left of the position into roughly 1,380 shares of Green Thumb.
I'm not pretending GTI is risk-free or that I've found some guaranteed winner. It's still cannabis. There are regulatory risks, margin pressure, competition, 280E, etc.
What attracted me was simply the difference in the financial behavior of the companies. GTI has been profitable, generating cash, and recently buying back shares rather than repeatedly expanding the share count. After what I've experienced with TLRY, that matters a lot to me.
It honestly sucks realizing how long I stayed anchored to my original APHA investment. Seven years is a long time.
But that's investing. Sometimes the lesson costs money.
For me, the lesson was this:
Don't fall in love with a ticker. Don't confuse revenue growth with per-share value creation. Don't ignore dilution. And don't keep waiting for management to eventually prove your original thesis right.
I'm taking the loss and moving on.
Good luck to everyone still holding. I genuinely hope TLRY succeeds and you guys make your money back. I just don't want to own it anymore.

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