EM
Smart Share Global Limited
stock NASDAQ ADR

Sparrate solltest du so wählen, dass du auf nichts verzichten tust. Jetzt jeden Euro sparen, wenn du später im Leben deutlich höhere Sparraten haben wirst, bringt dir nichts.
Du hast mit deiner Aufteilung 37% EM, das ist ziemlich viel. Wenn du das so bewusst machen willst, nur zu. Letzten Endes ist es eine Wette auf den EM Sektor.
Deine Tagesgeldrücklagen erzielen weniger Rendite als deine ETFs. Notgroschen sollte stets verfügbar sein, eben für Notfallsituationen. Bei planbaren Ausgaben wie Urlauben fährst du besser wenn du kurz vor dem Urlaub deine Sparrate aussetzt.

I have 35% of my international positions in EMs but 35% of a portfolio is high. For reference I am 60:40 overweight international:US and my EM position is still only 20% of my portfolio.
in addition your "all world ETF" also likely already invest in EMs so you probably are even more overexposed without realizing.

Ich würde es simpler halten, aber es ist auch irgendwo Ansichtssache.
Auf Grundlager meiner Erfahrungswerte, die subjektiv sind und keine Anlageberatung darstellen, mal laut ausgesprochene 3 Möglichkeiten:
(1) Man kann als Index sowohl MSCI ACWI als auch den FFTSE All-World nehmen und damit schon breit aufgestellt sein. Wer es richtig simpel halten mag.
(2) Möchte man das Emerging Markets Exposure erhöhen und steuern, kann man auch MSCI World mit MSCI EM IMI machen im klassischen 70/30. Dann beträgt der Schwellenländeranteil ca. 20% auf Gesamtportfoliobetrachtung. Damit macht man auch nichts verkehrt. Gerade der MSCI EM mit "IMI = **Investable Market Index**)" deckt nochmal mehr Marktanteile ab als der reine MSCI EM. Ich denke China wurde da massiv unterschätzt in den vergangenen Jahren.
(3) Eine weitere alternative Möglichkeit: MSCI World, MSCI EM IMI und STOXX Europe 600 in Verhältnis 50, 30 zu 20, um Europa mehr Anteil auf Gesamtportfoliobetrachtung zu geben. Gibt ein gutes Video von Finanzfluss zu dem Thema und selbst Thomas Kehl gab letzten zu, nun auch in einen ETF auf den STOXX Europa 600 zu investieren. Ich habe dies vor ein paar Jahren auch gemacht und die Rechnung wäre gut aufgegangen, wenn ich nicht verkauft hätte, um mein Portfolio simpler zu halten.
Komplexer würde ich es am Anfang nicht machen. Es hängt auch stark davon ab, wie du die Zukunftschancen von Schwellenländer (EM), Industrieländer und Europa einstufst, sofern du da so tief reingehen möchtest. Mit allen Optionen fährt man besser als die Mehrheit jener, die die Bedeutung einer langfristigen Anlage in den Aktienmarkt noch nicht verstanden haben, obwohl diese alternativlos ist. Anzufangen ist erst einmal alles.

Habe den S&P 500 verkauft und dafür MSCI EM IMI gekauft.
Den Erlös aus dem S&P hab ich so auf beide aufgeteilt das ich bei 70/30 stehe und die beiden dann auch weiterhin 70/30 bespare.
Danke an alle!

Hi all,
I’d appreciate feedback on my long-term investment portfolio, specifically on asset allocation, diversification, and ETF choices.
**Profile & assumptions:**
* Location: Germany (tax efficiency matters)
* Time horizon: 10–15 years
* Risk tolerance: Med
* Goal: Long-term wealth accumulation (not income-focused)
* 33 years old, married, and no kids.
|Asset|ETF|Weight|
|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Global Equity|Amundi Prime AC World (WEBN)|35%|
|Emerging Markets|iShares Core MSCI EM IMI (EIMI)|14%|
|Europe|Amundi Core STOXX Europe 600 (MEUD)|14%|
|World Small Cap|SPDR MSCI World Small Cap|7.33%|
|Global Bonds (EUR-Hedged)|Vanguard Global Agg (VAGF)|8.33%|
|EUR Corp Bonds|iShares Core EUR Corp Bond|3.67%|
|EUR High Yield Bonds|iShares Euro High Yield|2.33%|
|Gold (Physical ETC)|EWG2|14%|
|Thematic|Crypto & Blockchain Innovators|1.33%|
|**Total**||**100%**|
Looking for inputs on
1. Is this over- or under-diversified?
2. Any major overlaps or unnecessary complexity?
3. Does the equity/bond/gold split make sense for my horizon?
4. Anything you’d simplify or replace?
Thanks

yeah that makes sense. P&G is probably the safer pick tbh. I just went Unilever mainly on valuation and EM exposure, but they’re basically in the same boring bucket for me. Staples, pricing power, slow grind up. Either one works long term honestly.

Those + NU are my EM exposure, very happy with this start lol

Not bad! I would add some EM and small cap exposure though!

I've been working on a framework that uses **Lie Algebra (commutators)** to detect structural breaks in financial markets, and wanted to share it with the community. After extensive validation across 33 market-event pairs spanning 2000-2024, the two-signal system achieves **100% detection on pre-specified institutional stress episodes** across 8 asset classes.
**On false positives:** The system triggers \~0.8 false positives per year per market (vs. 2.3/year for Lambda-F alone, 4.5/year for rolling volatility). Pre-specified events are macro/institutional stress episodes; exogenous "no-precursor" shocks are excluded by design (see Black Swan section).
# The Theory
Instead of looking at price velocity (standard volatility/GARCH), I model the market as a path through the manifold of covariance matrices. I measure two things:
1. **Lambda-F (Rotation):** The "curvature" of the covariance path using the matrix commutator. Detects when institutions rotate between factors (dumping momentum, piling into defensives).
2. **Correlation Spike (Synchronization):** Average pairwise correlation across factors. Detects when everything sells together (panic/de-risking).
Think of it this way:
* **Volatility** tells you how fast the car is going
* **Lambda-F** tells you the steering wheel is jerking (rotation)
* **Correlation** tells you all cars on the highway are swerving the same direction (synchronized panic)
# Why Two Signals?
Lambda-F alone missed some events. When I analyzed the failures, a clear pattern emerged:
|Miss|Lambda-F|Type|Problem|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|US Q4 2018|61%|Fed panic|All sectors sold together—no rotation|
|UK Mini-budget|48%|Fiscal shock|Gilts/equities/GBP all crashed at once|
|Germany Energy|50%|Supply shock|Everything correlated with gas prices|
**The insight:** Lambda-F detects rotation (sectors moving differently). But synchronized selloffs (everything down together) have HIGH correlation and LOW rotation. Adding correlation catches these.
# Full Validation: 33/33 Market-Event Pairs
Events are pre-specified macro/institutional stress episodes (>20% drawdown or major regime shift). The same global episode (e.g., GFC, 2011 Eurozone) appears across multiple markets.
# Equities (10 pairs)
|Market|Event|Lambda-F|Correlation|Caught By|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**US Equity**|Dot-Com 2000|75% ✓|—|λ|
|**US Equity**|GFC 2008|86.5% ✓|—|λ|
|**US Equity**|Q4 2018|61%|96.7% ✓|ρ|
|**US Equity**|2022 Bear|91% ✓|—|λ|
|**UK Equity**|Q4 2018|88% ✓|—|λ|
|**UK Equity**|Mini-budget 2022|48%|98.7% ✓|ρ|
|**UK Equity**|2011 Eurozone|99.9% ✓|99.1% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**Germany**|Q4 2018|87% ✓|—|λ|
|**Germany**|Energy Crisis 2022|50%|98.4% ✓|ρ|
|**Germany**|2011 Eurozone|99.4% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
# Commodities & Gold (6 pairs)
|Market|Event|Lambda-F|Correlation|Caught By|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Commodities**|Q4 2018|94% ✓|—|λ|
|**Commodities**|WTI Negative 2020|89% ✓|—|λ|
|**Commodities**|Ukraine 2022|92% ✓|—|λ|
|**Commodities**|2014-16 Oil Bust|96.7% ✓|81%|λ|
|**Gold**|Q4 2018|85% ✓|—|λ|
|**Gold**|$2000 Breakout|91% ✓|—|λ|
# Crypto (3 pairs)
|Market|Event|Lambda-F|Correlation|Caught By|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Crypto**|April 2021 Top|88% ✓|—|λ|
|**Crypto**|Nov 2021 Top|92% ✓|—|λ|
|**Crypto**|March 2024 Top|81% ✓|—|λ|
# Bonds (6 pairs) — NEW
|Market|Event|Lambda-F|Correlation|Caught By|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Bonds**|GFC 2008|95% ✓|88%|λ|
|**Bonds**|Taper Tantrum 2013|97% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**Bonds**|Treasury Stress 2020|86% ✓|—|λ|
|**Bonds**|Bond Crash 2022|97% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**Bonds**|SVB Crisis 2023|100% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**Bonds**|Oct Spike 2023|88% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
# Emerging Markets (8 pairs) — NEW
|Market|Event|Lambda-F|Correlation|Caught By|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**EM**|GFC 2008|95% ✓|98% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**EM**|EM Selloff 2011|100% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**EM**|Taper Tantrum 2013|100% ✓|77%|λ|
|**EM**|China Deval 2015|96% ✓|—|λ|
|**EM**|EM Crisis 2016|97% ✓|84%|λ|
|**EM**|EM Rout 2018|99% ✓|—|λ|
|**EM**|COVID Flight 2020|85% ✓|100% ✓|λ+ρ|
|**EM**|China Reopen 2022|93% ✓|—|λ|
**Detection breakdown:**
* Lambda-F only: 21 pairs (64%) — factor rotation
* Correlation only: 3 pairs (9%) — synchronized selloff
* Both signals: 9 pairs (27%) — maximum stress
# Key Findings
**Dot-Com 2000:** Extended validation back to 2000. Lambda-F hit 75th percentile with 43-day lead time—exactly at threshold. Framework now spans 25 years.
**GFC 2008:** Lambda-F peaked August 9-13, 2007 (86.5th percentile) with **57-day lead time** before the S&P 500 top. The peak coincided exactly with BNP Paribas freezing three subprime funds.
**2011 Eurozone Crisis:** Both signals hit 99%+. Germany correlation reached **100th percentile**—maximum synchronization. This was true panic with both institutional rotation AND synchronized selling.
**2014-2016 Oil Bust:** Lambda-F caught it (96.7%, 115 days elevated) but correlation did NOT spike (81%). This was a **slow 18-month rotation**, not a panic.
**SVB Crisis 2023:** Both signals hit **100th percentile** in bonds—maximum stress. Detected the duration mismatch crisis and flight to short-duration assets.
**EM Taper Tantrum 2013:** Lambda-F hit 100% with 22 days elevated as institutional capital fled emerging markets on Fed tightening signals.
# Black Swan Handling
**Excluded for Developed Markets (correct non-detection):**
* COVID-19 (pandemic—no institutional precursor)
* Terra/Luna (algorithmic failure)
* 3AC/Celsius (counterparty contagion)
* FTX (fraud)
**COVID for Emerging Markets: DETECTED (correctly)**
This is interesting—COVID is classified differently by market. For developed markets, it was a synchronized exogenous shock (no rotation signal). But for EM, the framework **correctly detected** genuine institutional capital flight from emerging to developed markets. That's a real rotation, not just a shock.
# Walk-Forward Validation (No Look-Ahead Bias)
Parameters tuned only on historical data, then tested on future events:
|Cycle|Training Data|Peak Signal|Result|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2017|2015-2016|23%|Not Classified (pre-institutional)|
|2021|2015-2020|92%|**Classified** (31 days lead)|
|2025|2015-2024|77%|**Classified**|
The 2017 miss is expected: CME Bitcoin futures launched Dec 17, 2017—literally the day of the top. No institutional infrastructure existed.
# Independent Academic Validation
Three recent papers validate the underlying mechanics:
1. **Soleimani (2025)** \[arXiv:2512.07886\]: Confirms regime-switching at 90th percentile thresholds
2. **Tang et al. (2025)** \[arXiv:2402.11930\]: Documents structural breaks in Bitcoin microstructure around 2020
3. **Borri et al. (2025)** \[arXiv:2510.14435\]: Yale/Rochester/Berkeley team validates factor models + funding rate predictability
# The Live Signal (Why I'm Posting)
Current dashboard (2026-01-06):
|Market|Lambda-F|L Pctl|Elev|Corr|C Pctl|Regime|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Commodities|3.57|94%|14d\*|0.26|78%|**CRITICAL (L)**|
|Gold|3.54|78%|6d\*|0.23|58%|**CRITICAL (L)**|
|Crypto (BTC)|3.39|76%|2d|0.81|61%|Normal|
|US Equity (SPY)|3.52|68%|\--|0.33|24%|Normal|
|UK Equity (EWU)|3.34|53%|\--|0.49|8%|Normal|
|Germany (EWG)|3.15|25%|6d|0.37|11%|ELEVATED (L)|
|Bonds|3.26|34%|8d|0.76|63%|ELEVATED (L)|
|Emerging Markets|2.84|4%|\--|0.31|16%|Normal|
\*Elevated days in trailing 30-day window that triggered regime
**Live Dashboard:** [github.com/vonlambda/lambda-f-dashboard](https://github.com/vonlambda/lambda-f-dashboard)
Commodities and Gold in CRITICAL while equities remain Normal. Germany and Bonds ELEVATED. Classic risk-off rotation pattern—capital flowing from risk assets into hard assets/defensives.
# False Positive Comparison
|Method|Detection Rate|FP/Year|Precision|Avg Lead Time|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**Two-Signal (this)**|100%|**0.8**|79%|22 days|
|Lambda-F only|91%|2.3|57%|22 days|
|Correlation only|36%|1.1|41%|8 days|
|Rolling Vol > P90|67%|4.5|22%|6 days|
The two-signal system isn't just catching more—it's catching more *with fewer false alarms*. The correlation signal acts as a second path to detection, not a lower bar.
# Technical Summary
|Signal|Measures|Catches|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Lambda-F**|Commutator ‖\[F, Ḟ\]‖|Factor rotation (slow or fast)|
|**Correlation**|Avg pairwise ρ|Synchronized selloffs|
|**Combined**|Either elevated|All institutional events|
**Classification:**
* λ ≥ P75 → ELEVATED (rotation)
* ρ ≥ P90 → ELEVATED (sync)
* Either ≥ P90 → CRITICAL
* Both elevated → CRITICAL+ (maximum stress)
# Questions for r/quant
1. **Factor model improvements:** Using sector ETFs for equities. Would Fama-French or PCA factors improve rotation detection?
2. **Bonds factors:** Currently using duration spectrum (SHY/IEF/TLT) + credit (LQD/HYG) + inflation (TIP). Better factor decomposition?
3. **EM correlation with Commodities:** EM-Commodities Lambda signal correlation is only 0.29—independent enough to justify separate tracking?
4. **Signal weighting:** Lambda-F leads by 30-60 days. Correlation confirms during event. How would you combine them for a single score?
**Paper & Code:** Full methodology available on request. Dashboard updates daily.
*Disclaimer: Research, not financial advice. Posting to see if others track similar structural stress patterns.*

Er erhöht die Diversifikation nur wenn er noch Small Caps hinzufügt, EM ist mit knapp 10% bereits im FTSE All-World.
Und Small Caps machen nur 1% der Marktkapitalisierung aus, muss man selbst wissen ob man auf sowas noch zusätzlich setzen möchte oder nicht.

Wenn du den World mit dem S&P 500 kombinierst, reduzierst du deine Diversifikation. Wenn du ihn mit EM und/oder Small Caps kombinierst, erhöhst du die Diversifikation.
Diversifikation is the only free lunch.

World ETF + S&P 500 kombinieren oder lieber EM & Small Caps

Any feedback for my picks for next couple of years? I did well last year but want less mental strain and stress so I want to streamline my portfolio (11K but over 46 separate investments!) to these 4:
• 65% UBS Nasdaq-100 (QQQA): Chosen for the lowest fee (0.13%) and physical backing to capture pure, unhedged US tech growth.
• 15% iShares MSCI EM SRI (SUES): Selected for high liquidity and max TSMC exposure (14%) to ride the AI chip supply chain without junk.
• 10% HanETF Sprott Uranium (URNM): The only pure-play miner ETF available to capture the essential nuclear baseload demand for AI.
• 10% iShares Physical Gold (SGLN): The most liquid, tight-spread GBP vehicle to insure the portfolio against currency debasement and crashes.
Planning to auto DCA £500-£800 a month.

My focus concerning diversification is not market cap, at this moment I want to diversify in more companies in more diverse sectors, if you look at it, I am very well diversified in different sectors, where If I followed market cap I would be much more concentrated on tech for example, I add 3% US small caps with DFUS for the matter of increasing US diversification and reducing even further from highest market cap US blue chips, I own much more companies by having that little extra etf, though repeating some, I achieve my US diversification goal a bit more, while in the US I keep most of the holdings in an fund with much large cap, in international markets I keep most of it in small cap value, with current international market prices I see international value funds are catching opportunities relating to low valuations for statistically good companies with good profitability, which means higher expected returns, I put 9% of DFAI because it has a very reasonable position on blue chips as well, emerging markets not included, I have emerging markets value for I only see an portfolio capturing the “emerging markets risk premium” with profitable value stocks, the EM bonds are because of higher interest rates, given the higher credit risk of EM countries, but I invest in EM government bonds for quite some time now, I am fine with the risk and appreciate the higher return.

Hier in lesbarer laut Claude mit TER:
| ISIN | Vollständiger Name | TER |
|------|-------------------|-----|
| LU2641054551 | Xtrackers II Germany Government Bond 0-1 UCITS ETF 1C | 0,07% |
| LU1291098827 | BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU ESG Filtered Min TE UCITS ETF CAP | 0,15% |
| LU1291099718 | BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Europe ESG Filtered Min TE UCITS ETF CAP | 0,15% |
| IE000YNVI4W4 | Invesco Markets II - Invesco Europe Enhanced Equity UCITS ETF Acc | 0,24% |
| IE00BZ4BMM98 | Invesco EURO STOXX High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETF Dist | 0,30% |
| IE00BG13YL86 | iShares Edge MSCI Europe Multifactor UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) | 0,25% |
| LU1291102447 | BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan ESG Filtered Min TE UCITS ETF CAP | 0,15% *(laut extraETF)* / 0,16% *(laut justETF)* |
| IE000M86QRT4 | Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight ESG Leaders UCITS ETF DR EUR Hedged Acc | 0,20% |
| IE000LAP5Z18 | Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight ESG Leaders UCITS ETF DR USD Acc | 0,18% |
| IE00BKSBGS44 | Fidelity US Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF USD Acc | 0,20% *(laut Finanzfluss, justETF)* / 0,30% *(laut extraETF)* |
| IE000HFBJ0U0 | First Trust Vest Nasdaq 100 Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF June Acc | 0,90% |
| IE00BJQRDM08 | Invesco MSCI USA ESG Universal Screened UCITS ETF Acc | 0,09% |
| IE00BYVTMS52 | Invesco NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc | 0,35% |
| IE00BFNM3G45 | iShares MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc) | 0,07% |
| IE000OVF8Q66 | iShares Emerging Markets Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD Acc | 0,30% |
| IE000NFR7C63 | iShares MSCI China Tech UCITS ETF USD Acc | 0,45% |
| IE00BHZPJ239 | iShares MSCI EM ESG Enhanced CTB UCITS ETF USD Acc | 0,18% |
| LU1953188833 | UBS (Lux) Fund Solutions - MSCI China ESG Universal UCITS ETF USD Dis | 0,30% *(laut Finanzfluss, justETF)* / 0,44% *(laut extraETF)* |
| JE00BN2CJ301 | WisdomTree Metal Securities Ltd. - Core Physical Gold ETC | 0,12% *(laut justETF)* / 0,15% *(laut extraETF)* |
| DE000A0S9GB0 | Deutsche Börse Commodities GmbH - Xetra-Gold | 0,00% |
| IE00B4468526 | Polar Capital Funds - Global Technology Fund R EUR | 1,61% |
Definitiv weghauen würde ich alle ab 0,35 % TER aufwärt.
Für den Rest muss man mal schauen:
- Hast du Lust die Fonds in Region zu sortieren und zu schauen inwieweit sie dann Marktkapitalisierung der Welt über einstimmen? Wenn nein persp. alles weg.
- Wie viel ist da überhaupt an Gewinn angefallen? Ein paar davon sind nicht so völlig Scheiße aber auch nicht richtig gut weil es weniger teurer gibt oder der Ansatz dusselig ist wie equal weight. Je weniger Gewinn zu versteuern wäre, desto eher alles weg.
Je weniger Lust desto eher kannste verkaufen drücken, am unbedenklichsten ist der Xtrackers Government Bond, falls die geringe rendite für dich relevant ist.
Ansonsten alles wo dividend drinsteht weg, alles mit "active" weg. Alle Branchen ETF (tech… ) weg.

basically as u/FMCTandP already said/implied, this is just very complicated
DILRX is likely already part of DFAI so can be scrapped, I don't really see a reason to go for EM bonds (both at all and especially in a local currency) so I would scrap those two as well
It also seems like your assignment is somewhat random, like you tilt heavily towards international small caps because... why?
The base aspects you likely wanna cover: US (DFUS + DFSV, assuming DFUS has no small caps and you want the factor tilt of DFSV), International (DFAI + DISV, same as before), EM (DFEV, assuming they aren't part of International already).
Market Cap to my knowledge is something like 63 US, 26 International, 11 EM (or 37 non-US in total), if you wanna add small caps they'd be around 10% of your total portfolio. What are your reasons to deviate from that?

As the others, conviction in the EM and growing like never before. Eventhough thet have missed their EPS consistently I’m sure they will surprise and rise back to the september highs.

VTI/VOO are pretty much interchangeable tbh
Get into some EM and Canadian ETFs to diversify. Look into thematic stuff. SMH is good for semiconductors. Get into a global infrastructure ETF, it’s a hedge

>I'd like to be more diversified with emerging markets
I agree, add an EM fund to the MSCI world to get all world coverage. Maybe an MSCI Emerging market fund?

These people don’t know anything bro 😂
You think they understand that EM was ripping and will likely continue to do so because it was long overdue? (Also b/c lack of confidence in America rn) You think they know about dividend taxation?
No. SCHD is a meme stock at this point. No one who isn’t ultra wealthy (but they use private markets and hedge funds) or close to retirement should be touching that.