DJT
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Should have bought $TRUMP and DJT instead.

Fair challenge, but you’re moving the goalposts slightly. I said prediction markets can provide useful portfolio signals, not that every probability change automatically produces a profitable trade.
But there are clear examples of prediction-market probabilities being relevant to publicly traded assets:
**1. Trump election odds and DJT**
As Trump’s betting-market odds increased before the 2024 election, Trump Media became a direct election proxy. The stock rose 9% in one day and had nearly tripled from its late-September low. At the time, Polymarket priced Trump at 64%.
Source: [Reuters — Trump Media shares soar as betting odds favor White House win](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/shares-trumps-media-company-soar-betting-odds-favor-white-house-win-2024-10-22/)
**2. Ukraine peace expectations and European stocks**
When markets perceived a greater probability of a Ukraine peace agreement, Rheinmetall fell 3.7% and Saab fell 4.3%. Meanwhile, Ukraine-exposed Ferrexpo rose 19%, Wizz Air 9%, Raiffeisen 6%, and TUI 4%.
Source: [Reuters — Ukraine-exposed stocks rally, defence dips on Ukraine peace hopes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ukraine-exposed-stocks-rally-defence-dips-ukraine-peace-hopes-2026-01-22/)
**3. Tariff probabilities and automakers**
Trump had threatened auto tariffs for weeks before finally announcing them. After the announcement, GM fell around 7%, Ford around 4%, BMW and Mercedes around 3%, and Toyota 2.7%.
Source: [Reuters — Auto stocks slide as US tariffs send “fatal signal” for trade](https://www.reuters.com/markets/auto-stocks-slide-us-tariffs-spoil-profit-outlook-2025-03-27/)
There is also academic evidence that probability changes in Kalshi’s Fed, inflation, and recession markets contain information about future cryptocurrency volatility beyond conventional indicators.
Source: [Mohanty & Krishnamachari — Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility?](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01431)
None of this proves that blindly following Polymarket or Kalshi generates alpha. The point is that changing probabilities can identify portfolio exposures and scenarios worth investigating.
That is the hypothesis I want to test, not an assumption that every prediction-market move is automatically tradable.

“We have a very hostile country that wants nuclear weapons. You can’t let that happen.” ([6/15/24](https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1934779479424991462)). DJT

DJT is ruining my DXY devaluation trade which was doing so well. High crude oil leads to a stronger DXY. 
A stronger DXY is kryptonite for Gold. 
High crude oil prices are kryptonite for Japanese & South Korean stocks.
Luckily Google, Amazon, Microsoft & Meta haven’t stopped sending most of their FCF to Samsung, TSM, SK & Kioxia so the AI cap ex hyperspenders  are paying for support for world ex US stocks.

It's because of that truth social post by DJT!

**"From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" President DJT**

And only 3 million more files to go thru. And when thats done We can use Maduros oil and pay him back with DJT coins

lol, you youngins hopefully have always had that energy…and not just now with this r/tinyhats (D) DJT.

DJT to $25 by end of summer?

So LTC will die a real death now. Fuck DJT

We can all chip in and buy access to DJT Truth Social.

https://preview.redd.it/yo7ykg8gijeh1.png?width=1544&format=png&auto=webp&s=be9e5bcda4bd4a0c683de1ce93f308908fc04013
7/12
i have just realised this bingo card could never be completed, i will reorder for wednesday if there is interest, or move to a weekly basis, regards. DJT