DISA
Disruptive Acquisition Corporation I Class A
stock NASDAQ

**How does Federal spending stack up on some of Reddit’s favorite space tickers?**
What’s up everyone – space stocks are all the rage now. Decided to take a look at how some of the tickers I commonly see posted across the boards stack up from a Federal spending perspective.
For this exercise, I want to start with 3 tickers I see thrown around here a lot, and stick with them for now since they’re what’s likely relevant to you all. They are:
* SpaceX (Duh)
* Rocket Lab (obviously)
* Firefly Aerospace
Obviously this still leaves companies like Blue Origin, etc., but those aren’t publicly traded, so we’re going to start here with those 3.
Let’s get going. When we filter those companies, their obligations (if you don’t know what Fed obligations are, google it.) across FY22-FY26 look like this (remember, we’re still in FY26, and data is delayed, so it’s partial):
https://preview.redd.it/38040e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c6ad472272f17f8e34012ac1f2e283a0ab24c92
Obviously, we see that SpaceX takes up the vast majority, but we start to see some breaks by Rocket Lab & Firefly starting around FY23 – they’re starting to win contracts.
We also see that SpaceX spend has increased from \~$3B in FY22 to \~$4B in FY25 (hey that aligns with their “Federal / Enterprise” numbers in the S-1 in Note 3!
Next, I’m curious as to who is actually buying this stuff from these companies, so we do another slice by Funding Sub-Agency (we use funding and not awarding, because funding is who has the money, and therefore is very very often also who has the requirement):
https://preview.redd.it/ll5n0e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c526d15d72df9355734156310e52f2e85a255e8
The obvious takeaway here is that NASA and USAF are doing most of the legwork with funding these companies from a Federal perspective. I should note that USASpending data reports Space Force under Air Force – so what you’re seeing here is likely Space Force spending vs Air Force. What’s interesting is the entry by DISA in 2024 as well as a few others. It’s not crazy amounts of money, but it seems the customer base is just getting started in terms of which parts of the Federal government are getting into spending on these companies.
Now let’s take a look at what products/services this money is being spent on. This can be a little tricky because federal PSC codes are not an exact science. You will often see lots of generalized names for vastly different products & services (e.g., R&D can mean anything). But they give us a decent proxy. Right away, all that red we see in the chart is V126, which is more commonly known as “Space Transportation & Launch Services” (though not labeled that in the chart – it’s using what’s listed  in the data, V126 is commonly used for Space Launch services). This makes sense since the 3 tickers we’re looking at are well…space launch companies primarily.
https://preview.redd.it/clvdwd3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf250d8f0093c57c767f881614828f1590ef9c11
This is all interesting, and gives us some insight into how money is flowing, but what about each of these companies individually? For that I’m going to have 3 charts in succession for each, then we’re gonna talk about them. Each chart will show the company’s obligations, stacked by individual award ID. This will help us get an idea on the quality of their revenues (i.e., are they relying on one big contract, or do they have a nice spread of multiple contracts).
**SpaceX:**
https://preview.redd.it/x96u2e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=66297d56fa43defc72469f82b5d8973eda35232e
* SpaceX’s federal revenues are actually pretty solid, with consistent spend year over year on the same contracts, and they have many of them, becoming even more spread out as time moves forward.
* This is often a good thing. It means not only that they’re winning lots of contracts, but that they are also winning long-running contracts, meaning, consistent revenue streams.
* The contract 80MSFC20C0034, which drives most obligations through FY24, is for their Human Landing System – tracks with what we know about all the stuff Elon has been doing w/ SpaceX
* Their next major contract that we can see in orange is NNK17MA01T, which is for the Design/Dev/Test/Eval/Cert of the integrated Crew Transportation System (for transporting crew to/from the ISS)
* NNJ16GX08B in yellow is also related, but is services for Commercial Resupply of ISS
* NNK10LB02B in green is for NASA Launch Services II – SpaceX is delivering agency payloads weighing \~550lbs+ to a minimum of 124 mile high circular orbit across a range of launch vehicles to meet higher payload weight/orbit requirements
* 80JSC024CA002 in cyan is interesting – it’s for building/testing/delivering the US De-Orbit Vehicle, which will be used to perform the final de-orbit of the ISS
* Last one I’ll talk about w/ SpaceX is HC101324F0144, because it’s interesting as it’s from DISA and not NASA/USSF/USAF. This is for commercial satellite network-as-a-service….aka…Starlink which will be used by DISA (and probably some Defense-related customers somewhere somehow). I say it’s interesting because Starlink is a major component of SpaceX as we all know
* **This has nothing to do with whether we believe their valuation is valid or not – that’s a convo for a different day and not my intent here!**
 
**Rocket Lab:**
https://preview.redd.it/v6d7dw3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e1dd97c9d45a8647b82e9833f24bb4ef98e6584
* Rocket Lab sees a massive jump in FY24, driven by contract FA24012490019
* FA24012490019, if you look into it, is for R&D services for the SDA Transport Layer Tranche 2, which is a global mesh network of LEO satellites being developed – google it to read more – there’s lots of companies involved, it’s pretty cool, lots of money flying around for it
* Specifically (from their website): “…leading the design, development, production, test, and operations of the satellites, including procurement and integration of the payload subsystems”
* Read more here: [https://rocketlabcorp.com/missions/launches/sda/](https://rocketlabcorp.com/missions/launches/sda/)
* You’ll notice a healthy orange box in FY26 there – that’s because in December, Rocket Lab was awarded Tranche 3 of the **Tracking** Layer for SDA.
* RKLB will “deliver satellites equipped with advanced missile warning, tracking, and defense sensors to provide global, persistent detection and tracking of emerging missile threats, including hypersonic systems.”
* This is a contract with an $810M base value and 6 year base PoP (thru 2031) with a $10M option and potential end date of 2034 (i.e., potential PoP of 9 years).
* This is good news for Rocket Lab, because it signals that they are now in the game of getting high value, long-running contracts.
* I’ll leave it to someone else to dive into their margins for this – as we know spaceflight is expensive, and if the margins are razor thin, it’s worth seeing which space companies are playing best w/ their margins
 
**Firefly:**
https://preview.redd.it/xfak0e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=220ecd08cfa7f80346ca449a87eed3d649a2b507
* Right off the bat, we see that Firefly’s obligations have been somewhat lumpy
* 80JSC023F0041 in red is for NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services task order, which is a program for buying lunar delivery services to support the Artemis-era lunar exploration & science
* This is kind of a differentiator for FLY in that they are filling this niche for commercial lunar payload services. However, this contract only ran through FY24, so let’s see what the others are before making that conclusion
* This brings us to 80JSC025F7026 in orange. Lo and behold, it’s ALSO for commercial lunar payload services. So it does look like FLY is starting to fill this niche that many of us probably didn’t even know existed yet – that is, lunar payload services
* 80JSC025F7057 in green….also lunar payload services
* So what does this tell us? Well, FLY does seem to be getting some traction with NASA in establishing itself as a specialist in lunar payloads. So long as the US is continuing to pursue the moon (either through gov’t or private industry), FLY looks to definitely be a player in that niche…however…they will likely need to hitch a ride on one of the tickers mentioned above or on the Blue Origin/ULA/others of the world to get there
* Just kidding! Firefly has entered the launch chat.
* [https://fireflyspace.com/news/nasa-selects-firefly-as-a-launch-provider-for-venture-class-acquisition-of-dedicated-and-rideshare-vadr-missions/](https://fireflyspace.com/news/nasa-selects-firefly-as-a-launch-provider-for-venture-class-acquisition-of-dedicated-and-rideshare-vadr-missions/)
* See those cyan and purple slivers? They’re for contracts 80KSC023FA112 and W15QKN2490007 respectively
* These two contracts are part of the Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) program (see link above)
* Firefly is starting with some small rockets for launching payloads like cubesats and high-risk, low cost space missions
* While still a much smaller name than Rocket Lab and SpaceX, Firefly seems poised to be a player down the line as this commercial space race continues, especially as they fill some of these niches left by other big players
Anyway, hope you all enjoyed this. I’m purposely leaving out recommendations on what to buy etc., this is intended to just be info only for all of you. Hope you enjoyed it. Wanted to walk through some of the ways you can look into these companies and find out more behind what’s simply in their SEC filings, esp for those who don’t know/don’t like to nerd out on gov’t contracting. I know that I’m leaving out a huge piece of this, which is commercial revenues that these companies are obviously pursuing. This is from a Federal perspective only, but I think it lends insight into some of the things these companies are doing. Especially stuff that they do for the gov’t that could eventually apply to commercial.
LMK what you all think – happy to take any and all criticisms, memes, etc…
 
Few quick notes:
* This data is obtained from my platform that I’ve built, which leverages USA Spending data + lots of legwork I’ve done on back-end to line up the subsidiaries for some of the major primes
* Data includes OTAs through 5/17
* Data does not include subcontracts
* USA Spending Data (esp for defense) is typically delayed by \~90 days before it’s fully reported
* The data is in government fiscal years, so totals will likely not line up perfectly with reported revenues of the companies
* This is not financial advice nor should you make decisions off information you see on the internet – this is just observations only from looking at the data

**How does Federal spending stack up on some of Reddit’s favorite space tickers?**
What’s up everyone – space stocks are all the rage now. Decided to take a look at how some of the tickers I commonly see posted across the boards stack up from a Federal spending perspective.
For this exercise, I want to start with 3 tickers I see thrown around here a lot, and stick with them for now since they’re what’s likely relevant to you all. They are:
* SpaceX (Duh)
* Rocket Lab (obviously)
* Firefly Aerospace
Obviously this still leaves companies like Blue Origin, etc., but those aren’t publicly traded, so we’re going to start here with those 3.
Let’s get going. When we filter those companies, their obligations (if you don’t know what Fed obligations are, google it.) across FY22-FY26 look like this (remember, we’re still in FY26, and data is delayed, so it’s partial):
https://preview.redd.it/38040e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c6ad472272f17f8e34012ac1f2e283a0ab24c92
Obviously, we see that SpaceX takes up the vast majority, but we start to see some breaks by Rocket Lab & Firefly starting around FY23 – they’re starting to win contracts.
We also see that SpaceX spend has increased from \~$3B in FY22 to \~$4B in FY25 (hey that aligns with their “Federal / Enterprise” numbers in the S-1 in Note 3!
Next, I’m curious as to who is actually buying this stuff from these companies, so we do another slice by Funding Sub-Agency (we use funding and not awarding, because funding is who has the money, and therefore is very very often also who has the requirement):
https://preview.redd.it/ll5n0e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c526d15d72df9355734156310e52f2e85a255e8
The obvious takeaway here is that NASA and USAF are doing most of the legwork with funding these companies from a Federal perspective. I should note that USASpending data reports Space Force under Air Force – so what you’re seeing here is likely Space Force spending vs Air Force. What’s interesting is the entry by DISA in 2024 as well as a few others. It’s not crazy amounts of money, but it seems the customer base is just getting started in terms of which parts of the Federal government are getting into spending on these companies.
Now let’s take a look at what products/services this money is being spent on. This can be a little tricky because federal PSC codes are not an exact science. You will often see lots of generalized names for vastly different products & services (e.g., R&D can mean anything). But they give us a decent proxy. Right away, all that red we see in the chart is V126, which is more commonly known as “Space Transportation & Launch Services” (though not labeled that in the chart – it’s using what’s listed  in the data, V126 is commonly used for Space Launch services). This makes sense since the 3 tickers we’re looking at are well…space launch companies primarily.
https://preview.redd.it/clvdwd3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf250d8f0093c57c767f881614828f1590ef9c11
This is all interesting, and gives us some insight into how money is flowing, but what about each of these companies individually? For that I’m going to have 3 charts in succession for each, then we’re gonna talk about them. Each chart will show the company’s obligations, stacked by individual award ID. This will help us get an idea on the quality of their revenues (i.e., are they relying on one big contract, or do they have a nice spread of multiple contracts).
**SpaceX:**
https://preview.redd.it/x96u2e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=66297d56fa43defc72469f82b5d8973eda35232e
* SpaceX’s federal revenues are actually pretty solid, with consistent spend year over year on the same contracts, and they have many of them, becoming even more spread out as time moves forward.
* This is often a good thing. It means not only that they’re winning lots of contracts, but that they are also winning long-running contracts, meaning, consistent revenue streams.
* The contract 80MSFC20C0034, which drives most obligations through FY24, is for their Human Landing System – tracks with what we know about all the stuff Elon has been doing w/ SpaceX
* Their next major contract that we can see in orange is NNK17MA01T, which is for the Design/Dev/Test/Eval/Cert of the integrated Crew Transportation System (for transporting crew to/from the ISS)
* NNJ16GX08B in yellow is also related, but is services for Commercial Resupply of ISS
* NNK10LB02B in green is for NASA Launch Services II – SpaceX is delivering agency payloads weighing \~550lbs+ to a minimum of 124 mile high circular orbit across a range of launch vehicles to meet higher payload weight/orbit requirements
* 80JSC024CA002 in cyan is interesting – it’s for building/testing/delivering the US De-Orbit Vehicle, which will be used to perform the final de-orbit of the ISS
* Last one I’ll talk about w/ SpaceX is HC101324F0144, because it’s interesting as it’s from DISA and not NASA/USSF/USAF. This is for commercial satellite network-as-a-service….aka…Starlink which will be used by DISA (and probably some Defense-related customers somewhere somehow). I say it’s interesting because Starlink is a major component of SpaceX as we all know
* **This has nothing to do with whether we believe their valuation is valid or not – that’s a convo for a different day and not my intent here!**
 
**Rocket Lab:**
https://preview.redd.it/v6d7dw3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e1dd97c9d45a8647b82e9833f24bb4ef98e6584
* Rocket Lab sees a massive jump in FY24, driven by contract FA24012490019
* FA24012490019, if you look into it, is for R&D services for the SDA Transport Layer Tranche 2, which is a global mesh network of LEO satellites being developed – google it to read more – there’s lots of companies involved, it’s pretty cool, lots of money flying around for it
* Specifically (from their website): “…leading the design, development, production, test, and operations of the satellites, including procurement and integration of the payload subsystems”
* Read more here: [https://rocketlabcorp.com/missions/launches/sda/](https://rocketlabcorp.com/missions/launches/sda/)
* You’ll notice a healthy orange box in FY26 there – that’s because in December, Rocket Lab was awarded Tranche 3 of the **Tracking** Layer for SDA.
* RKLB will “deliver satellites equipped with advanced missile warning, tracking, and defense sensors to provide global, persistent detection and tracking of emerging missile threats, including hypersonic systems.”
* This is a contract with an $810M base value and 6 year base PoP (thru 2031) with a $10M option and potential end date of 2034 (i.e., potential PoP of 9 years).
* This is good news for Rocket Lab, because it signals that they are now in the game of getting high value, long-running contracts.
* I’ll leave it to someone else to dive into their margins for this – as we know spaceflight is expensive, and if the margins are razor thin, it’s worth seeing which space companies are playing best w/ their margins
 
**Firefly:**
https://preview.redd.it/xfak0e3o6r7h1.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=220ecd08cfa7f80346ca449a87eed3d649a2b507
* Right off the bat, we see that Firefly’s obligations have been somewhat lumpy
* 80JSC023F0041 in red is for NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services task order, which is a program for buying lunar delivery services to support the Artemis-era lunar exploration & science
* This is kind of a differentiator for FLY in that they are filling this niche for commercial lunar payload services. However, this contract only ran through FY24, so let’s see what the others are before making that conclusion
* This brings us to 80JSC025F7026 in orange. Lo and behold, it’s ALSO for commercial lunar payload services. So it does look like FLY is starting to fill this niche that many of us probably didn’t even know existed yet – that is, lunar payload services
* 80JSC025F7057 in green….also lunar payload services
* So what does this tell us? Well, FLY does seem to be getting some traction with NASA in establishing itself as a specialist in lunar payloads. So long as the US is continuing to pursue the moon (either through gov’t or private industry), FLY looks to definitely be a player in that niche…however…they will likely need to hitch a ride on one of the tickers mentioned above or on the Blue Origin/ULA/others of the world to get there
* Just kidding! Firefly has entered the launch chat.
* [https://fireflyspace.com/news/nasa-selects-firefly-as-a-launch-provider-for-venture-class-acquisition-of-dedicated-and-rideshare-vadr-missions/](https://fireflyspace.com/news/nasa-selects-firefly-as-a-launch-provider-for-venture-class-acquisition-of-dedicated-and-rideshare-vadr-missions/)
* See those cyan and purple slivers? They’re for contracts 80KSC023FA112 and W15QKN2490007 respectively
* These two contracts are part of the Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) program (see link above)
* Firefly is starting with some small rockets for launching payloads like cubesats and high-risk, low cost space missions
* While still a much smaller name than Rocket Lab and SpaceX, Firefly seems poised to be a player down the line as this commercial space race continues, especially as they fill some of these niches left by other big players
Anyway, hope you all enjoyed this. I’m purposely leaving out recommendations on what to buy etc., this is intended to just be info only for all of you. Hope you enjoyed it. Wanted to walk through some of the ways you can look into these companies and find out more behind what’s simply in their SEC filings, esp for those who don’t know/don’t like to nerd out on gov’t contracting. I know that I’m leaving out a huge piece of this, which is commercial revenues that these companies are obviously pursuing. This is from a Federal perspective only, but I think it lends insight into some of the things these companies are doing. Especially stuff that they do for the gov’t that could eventually apply to commercial.
LMK what you all think – happy to take any and all criticisms, memes, etc…
 
Few quick notes:
* This data is obtained from my platform that I’ve built, which leverages USA Spending data + lots of legwork I’ve done on back-end to line up the subsidiaries for some of the major primes
* Data includes OTAs through 5/17
* Data does not include subcontracts
* USA Spending Data (esp for defense) is typically delayed by \~90 days before it’s fully reported
* The data is in government fiscal years, so totals will likely not line up perfectly with reported revenues of the companies
* This is not financial advice nor should you make decisions off information you see on the internet – this is just observations only from looking at the data