DFTX
Definium Therapeutics, Inc. Common Shares
stock NASDAQ

That rationale is funny because they still gave DFTX like a 50% growth target lmao. Not too worried about competition there for some reason.

it is hard, the most de-risked, first-to-market, CNPV-holding psychedelic trades at a discount to peers whose trials haven't even read out.
The core idea is that as a company gets closer to commercialization, its valuation can actually compress, not because it's getting worse, but because hope is being replaced by scrutiny.
A stock trades on the most optimistic assumption that hasn't yet been disproven. Distance from reality preserves those optimistic assumptions. Proximity to reality forces them to be tested and testing, before it produces proof, produces doubt.
Early-stage names trade on imagination. No revenue, no launch, no reality to check the story against (see the whole shroom boom at IPO). The analyst models the full TAM at full penetration because nothing has happened yet to prove it wrong.
As a company approaches launch, the dream collides with specifics. The questions stop being "how big could this be?" and become "what exactly will insurers pay? how many rooms will actually convert? what does the label restrict? when does DEA clear?" Every one of those is a place where the generous assumption gets marked down to a realistic one. The stock stops being priced on the ceiling and starts being priced on the probable.
CMPS is in the doubt window : close enough that the questions are live, not yet close enough to have answered them with real revenue:
• The 0820T codes are Category III right now
• The label is being negotiated right now
• DEA rescheduling is a real pending step
• The room economics aren't proven yet
None of it is deferrable anymore, so none of it gets the generous assumption. The $13 PT is reality priced skeptically, because it's now checkable.
DFTX is far enough from market that every hard question is still deferrable. Reimbursement? "We'll figure it out, look at the TAM." Room economics? "New clinics will be built." Duration, REMS, DEA, label? All abstract, all years away, none testable. So the analyst models MDD + GAD + PTSD at full TAM and slaps a big multiple on it, because there's no reality yet to contradict the model. The $68 PT is a dream priced generously.
DFTX could face the opposite trajector. As it approaches its own launch, it enters its own scrutiny window the same hard questions become testable, and its imagination premium compresses exactly the way CMPS's is compressing now. DFTX hasn't been stress-tested yet. Could be less negatively impactful as they will get more data from comp360 launch. (if approved)
if CMPS passes the test. If the codes stay Category III and clinics don't convert rooms, the skeptics and price was not unfair. they were early and right, and the discount was earned. The whole thing comes down to REMS, LABEL and whether reimbursement and clini ecnomics resolves . The market is waiting. if the model works, the doubt window is where the asymmetry lives. you're buying the proof before it arrives, at the price of maximum skepticism.
Curious if others see it differently.

Literally nobody is measuring your MADRs in the real world. The so called best in class $DFTX results were in a trial with N = 149 and in a population that doesn't compare to TRD population that $CMPS is targeting.

There was no real news to sell on part B data. The bump that occurred at that time was a function of the atai acquisition rumors spilling over for CMPS. Once the atai sale price came in lower than expected CMPS shares fell.
My takeaway from the atai acquisition is the risks around psych stocks are more amplified than the market thought. The pricing will reflect that risk until it is proven otherwise.
Your last point is a compelling one which is that being closest to market is actually hurting CMPS at the moment. With DFTX for example it is more theoretical whereas with CMPS this will be stress tested in the next 6-12 months. At present we can see that the market doesn't like the risk reward proposition of CMPS. I expect that to change once the drug is approved and begins to get market penetration.

In my opinion, these are the reasons that could explain it and that are linked to cmps. Of course macro environment on a driver
 
1. Post-catalyst drift. Part B (July 7) was the catalyst. It passed clean but was expected, so the stock did its "sell the news" fade. The $14.50 → $11 slide is largely the durability re-rating being given back now that the event is spent and there's nothing scheduled until Q4
 
1. Thin float, low institutional ownership. UK ADR, outside major indices, thin institutional base (Mak's structural point). This means the stock drifts more on no news — there's no index-fund ballast holding it up, and light volume moves price more per dollar of selling.
 
1. Elevated short interest (12.84M shares as of today). Whatever the source, there's real short pressure. Shorts pressing into a catalyst gap with no near-term positive scheduled = downward drift.
 
1. The M&A BS rumors . The reporting that Lilly looked at Compass, and Compass sought a sale, and Lilly passed.  choosing ATAI instead
 
1. The narrative, CMPS is not putting as much effort as ATAI , DFTX into spinning the narrative. As they are all pre-revenu, the stock price is heavily dependent on narrative.  
 
The stock is being priced on skepticism precisely because it's closest to reality. CMPS is near enough to commercialization that the hard commercial questions (codes, room economics, label, REMS, DEA) are now live and testable. while DFTX/HELP still trade on un-falsifiable TAM and MADRS.
First to the finish line means being first to get stress-tested...
i hope i am not wrong

# Today is Tuesday, the 28th of July
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, July 28th
- Stock splits:
- CBWTF @ **1:14**
- SMTOY @ **5:1**
- WHLR @ **1:5**
- Expected earnings:
AAT, AB, ABG, ACGL, ACHC, AKR, ALKS, AMT, APAM, ASH, AUBN, AWI, AXS, AXTA, BA, BCS, BE, BRSP, BUSE, BXP, CAC, CAKE, CAR, CARR, CBU, CGAU, CHE, CLW, CMS, CNC, CNP, CR, CSGP, CTO, CTS, CURB, CVLT, CZR, DINO, DTE, ECL, ENPH, EXE, EXLS, EXR, F, FCF, FE, FELE, FMX, FSP, GEF, GEF.B, GLW, GSK, HIW, HLT, HRI, HUBB, HURN, INCY, INIO, IQV, ITRI, ITW, IVZ, JBLU, KLAC, KNSA, KO, LOGI, LSTR, LXFR, MANH, MBIN, MDLZ, MEOH, MIR, MVBF, NAUT, NBR, NEO, NOV, NXPI, OI, OMC, ORN, OSK, OXLC, PCAR, PDM, PDS, PHG, PII, PJT, PNR, PPG, PROV, PYPL, QRVO, QUAD, RBBN, RCKY, RCL, RGEN, RITM, RNST, ROG, RPT, RUSHA, RUSHB, RWT, SB, SBCF, SEVN, SHW, SLDE, SNDL, SPGI, SPWR, STAG, STX, SWKS, TER, THFF, THG, TLRY, TRMK, TRTX, TRU, TSBK, TTAM, TXT, TZOO, UMBF, UNM, UPS, V, VLTO, VRNS, WERN, WM, WNEB, WPC, XIFR, XPRO, XYL, ZWS
- Ex-div:
AGZD, ASML, DGRS, DGRW, EMCB, FAST, HYZD, MAXI, OBIL, PAYX, SATA, SND, TAXE, TBIL, THYM, TMNL, TMNS, TMSF, UFIV, UG, UNIY, USDX, USIN, USSH, USVN, UTEN, UTHY, UTRE, UTWO, UTWY, WTBN, WTIP, WTMU, WTMY, XBIL, ZHOG, ZMUN, ZTEN, ZTRE, ZTWO
- Economic events and announcements:
- 2-Year Note Auction (actual: 4.315%, previous: 4.189%)
- 3-Month Bill Auction (actual: 3.815%, previous: 3.730%)
- 5-Year Note Auction (actual: 4.408%, previous: 4.200%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (actual: 3.945%, previous: 3.835%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (actual: 1.6%, consensus: 1.7%, previous: 1.7%)
- Core Durable Goods Orders (actual: 0.6%, consensus: 0.9%, previous: 1.8%)
- Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (actual: 1.3, previous: 0.0)
- Durable Goods Orders (actual: 0.3%, consensus: 1.6%, previous: -4.0%)
- Durables Excluding Defense (actual: 0.3%, previous: -4.3%)
- Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (actual: 0.9%, previous: 1.9%)
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, July 29th
- Stock splits:
- GSHRF @ **1:6**
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADAM, ADP, ADPT, AEM, AER, AGI, AHT, ALGN, ALKT, ALRS, AM, AMRN, AMSC, ANIK, AON, APH, AR, ARCB, ARCC, ARIS, ARIS, ARM, ARXS, ASC, ASIC, ASTL, AUR, AVTR, AWK, AWRE, AXGN, BANC, BAND, BBNX, BBT, BBVA, BELFA, BELFB, BG, BHC, BHE, BIIB, BLCO, BLKB, BNL, BOOM, BOOT, BRBS, BSX, BTU, CBRE, CBZ, CCEC, CFFN, CHDN, CHEF, CHRW, CLB, CLBK, CLH, CLMB, CLVT, CMG, CMPR, CMTG, CNMD, CNXN, CORT, COUR, CP, CPSH, CRK, CSL, CSTM, CTSH, CVE, CVI, CVLG, CVNA, CWH, CZFS, DB, DBD, DLHC, DMC, EDU, EFOR, EG, EIG, EPR, EQIX, ESRT, ESS, ETD, ETR, EVR, EXP, FBRT, FCPT, FICO, FINW, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FPI, FRMM, FTAI, FTNT, FTRE, FTV, FUSB, FVRR, FXNC, GBFH, GD, GEHC, GFL, GHC, GIB, GKOS, GNRC, GRBK, GRMN, GTE, GTX, HAYW, HBB, HBM, HLI, HLX, HOOD, HSBC, HUM, HVT, HVT.A, HWBK, HWKN, HXL, HYMC, IART, ICLR, IEX, ILPT, INVH, IONS, JCI, JOE, KEX, KGC, LAD, LARK, LENZ, LFUS, LHX, LII, LMND, LRCX, LUNG, LXP, LXU, MAA, MAS, MAX, MC, MCHB, MDXG, META, MFIN, MGM, MGPI, MGRC, MHO, MKL, MNRO, MOD, MORN, MSFT, MTG, MTH, MX, MYRG, NCSM, NEU, NFG, NGVT, NHTC, NMRK, NPKI, NSP, NWE, NWPX, OBT, ODFL, OFLX, OGE, OHI, OMF, OPCH, ORLY, OSW, PAG, PB, PBHC, PBI, PCOR, PEB, PFS, PFSI, PG, PI, PLPC, PLXS, PMT, PPC, PRCH, PRG, PSA, PSHG, PSN, PTC, PTEN, PUMP, QCOM, QTWO, QURE, RDWR, REG, REYN, RGR, RM, RMBI, RRBI, RSI, RYZ, SBUX, SCI, SCL, SFM, SHEN, SILC, SIM, SIMO, SITE, SLGN, SMG, SMHI, SOFI, SONO, SPOK, ST, STRA, SVCC, SW, SWK, SYBT, TDOC, TENB, TEVA, TFSL, TIPT, TK, TNK, TREE, TTEK, TYL, UAN, UFPI, UIS, ULCC, UMC, UROY, USLM, VET, VFC, VICI, VKTX, VMC, VRSK, VRT, VTR, WAY, WEC, WFG, WHD, WING, WNC, WSO, WSO.B, WWD
- Ex-div:
ENTG, MCBS, PSEC, SATA
- Economic events and announcements:
- 7-Year Note Auction (previous: 4.260%)
- ADP Employment Change Weekly (previous: 16.50K)
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (consensus: -1.500M, previous: 2.603M)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- CB Consumer Confidence (consensus: 92.4, previous: 91.2)
- Dallas Fed Services Revenues (previous: 9.8)
- Goods Trade Balance (consensus: -100.30B, previous: -105.89B)
- House Price Index (consensus: 0.1%, previous: -0.1%)
- House Price Index (previous: 2.0%)
- House Price Index (previous: 441.4)
- M2 Money Supply (previous: 23.05T)
- OPEC Meeting
- Redbook (previous: 7.8%)
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto (previous: 0.3%)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (consensus: 7, previous: 4)
- Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (previous: 3)
- Richmond Services Index (previous: -1)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (consensus: 1.3%, previous: 1.1%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (previous: 1.0%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (previous: 0.0%)
- Texas Services Sector Outlook (previous: 2.9)
- Wholesale Inventories (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.1%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, July 30th
- Expected earnings:
AAMI, AAPL, ABEV, ACCO, ADC, ADT, AEE, AEP, AES, AG, AGCO, AGIO, AGM, AJG, ALGM, ALHC, ALNY, AMCX, AMG, AMH, AMRX, AMZN, AOS, APD, APG, AQMS, ASUR, ASX, ATHM, ATR, AUPH, AURE, AVD, AVY, AX, AXTI, BAFN, BAX, BBAI, BC, BCH, BDC, BFAM, BFLY, BGC, BIP, BIPC, BJRI, BLDR, BMY, BSBK, BTE, BUD, BVN, BWIN, BXMT, BYFC, CACC, CBIO, CCB, CCC, CDNA, CDRO, CERS, CFR, CHKP, CI, CIGI, CLAR, CMCO, CMPS, CNK, CNO, CNX, COCH, COHN, COHU, COIN, COLM, CPT, CRH, CROX, CRS, CSTL, CSW, CTVA, CUBE, CUZ, CVCO, CVEO, CWT, DAIO, DAR, DFH, DFIN, DFTX, DGICA, DGICB, DLB, DOUG, DRH, DRS, DSX, DTM, DXC, DXCM, EEFT, EGO, EIX, EME, EMN, EPD, ERIE, ES, ESCA, EXC, EXPO, FATN, FBIZ, FBLG, FCN, FET, FHI, FLGT, FND, FORR, FRBT, FSLR, FSS, FTI, GATX, GDDY, GDYN, GH, GIGM, GIL, GLPI, GOOS, GPI, GSIT, GVA, H, HCM, HGV, HII, HIPO, HLN, HNI, HR, HSY, HTGC, HUBG, HUN, ICE, IDA, IDCC, ILMN, INBK, ING, INGM, IP, IR, ISOU, IVR, JLL, KBR, KKR, KRG, KWR, LAUR, LECO, LH, LKQ, LNC, LNT, LOPE, LPLA, LSPD, LTH, LYG, LYV, MA, MAIR, MCS, MDGL, METC, METCB, MFG, MHK, MLCO, MLM, MMSI, MO, MPT, MPWR, MSA, MSC, MSEX, MSTR, MT, MTD, MTX, MTZ, MYE, MYGN, NBIX, NCLH, NEOG, NEXT, NMIH, NVNO, NXT, OBE, OCFC, OFS, OIS, OLED, OLN, OMCL, ONEW, OWL, PACK, PATK, PBA, PBF, PFIS, PGY, PHAR, PHAT, PHIN, PIPR, PKX, PTCT, PWR, RACE, RAL, RBLX, RDDT, REGN, RES, RIOT, RIVN, RJET, RMNI, RYAN, SAFE, SAH, SAIA, SAMG, SCKT, SHEL, SHOO, SIRI, SLSN, SNDR, SNY, SO, SOLS, SPHR, SPSC, SPXC, SRBK, STGW, STLA, STNG, SXC, SXI, SYK, TAK, TAL, TBBK, TEM, TEX, TLK, TNET, TRN, TRP, TRS, TT, TW, TWI, UNIT, UPBD, UPLD, UTZ, VALE, VCEL, VCYT, VIRT, VLO, VNDA, VRTS, WBX, WCC, WTW, WU, WVE, WY, XEL, XHR, XPO, XRX, YUM, YUMC
- Ex-div:
FRMEP, SATA
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.730%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.795%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- Continuing Jobless Claims (previous: 1,796K)
- Core PCE Price Index (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.3%)
- Core PCE Price Index (previous: 3.4%)
- Core PCE Prices (previous: 4.40%)
- Dallas Fed PCE (previous: 2.80%)
- Fed's Balance Sheet (previous: 6,747B)
- GDP (consensus: 2.3%, previous: 2.1%)
- GDP Price Index (consensus: 3.7%, previous: 3.6%)
- GDP Sales (previous: 1.9%)
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 206K, previous: 187K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 207.50K)
- Natural Gas Storage (previous: 32B)
- PCE Price index (previous: 4.1%)
- PCE Prices (previous: 4.6%)
- PCE price index (previous: 0.4%)
- Personal Income (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.7%)
- Personal Spending (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.7%)
- Real Consumer Spending (previous: 0.5%)
- Real Personal Consumption (previous: 0.3%)
- Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (previous: 3.064T)
## Upcoming events for Friday, July 31st
- Stock splits:
- CLDI @ **1:16**
- OFAL @ **1:10**
- Expected earnings:
ABBV, AN, ARES, AUC, BBUC, BCPC, BEN, BEP, BEPC, BLDP, BSAC, BTSG, CBOE, CCJ, CHD, CL, CVX, D, DIT, ENB, ETN, FRT, FTS, GTES, IMO, ITUB, KYIV, LEA, LIN, LYB, MGA, MOG.A, MOG.B, MRNA, NB, NVT, NWG, NWL, PAYP, POR, PRLB, PRM, PWP, RBC, SMFG, TAC, TROW, UBS, VEON, WT, XOM
- Ex-div:
AGNC, CASY, DGICA, DGICB, GOOGM, GOOGN, LCUT, LNT, OSBC, PAA, PAGP, PKOH, RBB, SATA, STRC, TXN
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.730%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.795%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- Continuing Jobless Claims (previous: 1,796K)
- Core PCE Price Index (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.3%)
- Core PCE Price Index (previous: 3.4%)
- Core PCE Prices (previous: 4.40%)
- Dallas Fed PCE (previous: 2.80%)
- Fed's Balance Sheet (previous: 6,747B)
- GDP (consensus: 2.3%, previous: 2.1%)
- GDP Price Index (consensus: 3.7%, previous: 3.6%)
- GDP Sales (previous: 1.9%)
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 206K, previous: 187K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 207.50K)
- Natural Gas Storage (previous: 32B)
- PCE Price index (previous: 4.1%)
- PCE Prices (previous: 4.6%)
- PCE price index (previous: 0.4%)
- Personal Income (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.7%)
- Personal Spending (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.7%)
- Real Consumer Spending (previous: 0.5%)
- Real Personal Consumption (previous: 0.3%)
- Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (previous: 3.064T)
^^^^2026-07-28

So basically, I've been in the space since 2022 and at different points I've been in ATAI, CMPS, DFTX, and HELP (rip MindMed and Cybin).
I eventually went in all-in on ATAI and made a lot, but not as much as I was hoping for because of the damn acquisition. Basically, turned \~$420k into between \~$795k-$1.1m depending on if any of the CVRs payout, and I plan on holding ATAI until the sale goes through to get my CVR vouchers.
Once the ATAI acquisition was announced, I decided to buy 23,500 shares of CMPS at $12.09/share (so total value is \~$284k, though that's down to \~$265k right now). I'm not looking to put any new money into this space since I have a lot also tied up with ATAI right now, though may consider putting more in once the ATAI cash comes in, depending on what the space is looking like. The way my mind works, I prefer going all-in on a company that I believe in than splitting an investment 2 or 3 ways, but I'm not opposed to splitting.
That said, I'm considering selling some of my CMPS investment and putting it into either HELP or DFTX. As someone who was super long on ATAI and could tell you every thing about every drug, I'm a little lost as I'm not as up-to-date on CMPS, DFTX, or HELP and I do feel a sense of urgency as I think there are some major catalysts coming up where we might not ever be able to buy this "cheap" again, inshallah.
Below is my overall thinking of each company and I would love to get thoughts on if they agree/disagree with my logic (and why) and anything good or bad that I might be missing.
**Compass Pathways (CMPS)**
Here's what I'm bullish about:
* I do think COMP360 will get approved for TRD without super restrictive REMS requirements.
* I'm also very confident COMP360 will get approved for PTSD (I'm very bullish on that for COMP360).
* I think that with COMP360 being first to market, a lot of doctors will prescribe COMP360 off-label for MDD, PTSD, and GAD.
* I think that patients may prefer COMP360 over 5meoDMT compounds given that it's a kinder, gentler high.
Here's what I'm not so bullish about:
* The 6-8 hour clinic time will be difficult to scale and could be difficult to get reimbursements for.
* Being first to market is great in some ways, but not amazing in others -- they'll have to effectively get the infrastructure in place that other companies will benefit from.
* TRD is a smaller market and if their goal is acquisition, I'm not confident they could get acquired for much more than ATAI did without showing very promising commercial success post-launch (and I'm sure many people disagree with me here on that). FWIW, I know it's an anonymous source, but I do think the reports of CMPS wanting to be acquired by Lilly and not being their first choice are accurate.
* There's less IP protection given the nature of COMP360.
* I don't think the results for COMP360 for TRD were incredible. So while they might be first-to-market, I think basically they'll be making money until the drugs behind COMP360 come to market for TRD, off-label MDD, etc. That said, I do think if they could get approved for PTSD, it might be the drug of choice.
**Helus (HELP)**
I know less about HELP but in general, bullish on:
* Their Phase 2 results, though it does seem like the sample size was small.
* The current low market cap means potentially a lot more room for growth and that it's a prime acquisition target.
* I think the 1-2 hours less of clinic time over COMP360 will make a difference.
* I think HLP003 has better IP than COMP360 just given the nature of the drug.
* Feel like an acquisition could come soon, which would cap the gains but could be an easy win.
What I'm not so thrilled about it is:
* The ATM financing strategy. Effectively, they can dilute whenever they want, which is super frustrating and feels like they are just capping their gains by taking money out whenever there's a great catalyst.
**Definium (DFTX)**
What I'm bullish about:
* Great recent results.
* They seem to be 2nd in-line to go to market which I think has some real benefits (per comments above).
* Market is bullish on them, which is a good sign.
* TAM for MDD and GAD.
What I'm less bullish about:
* Session times still seem like a massive barrier for adoption.
* Current market cap doesn't makes it harder to buy right now, as I feel like I missed out on a lot of the gain over the next year.
For both HELP and DFTX, I don't know a lot about their management. And not interested in GHRS -- ATAI was my 5MeoDMT play.
I wish DFTX would just drop 20% (sorry!) and I would for sure start a position in it then. But since that might not happen and I want to have my setup established fully soon, the strategies I'm considering are:
* Staying 100% CMPS
* Going 50%/50% CMPS/DFTX
* Going 50%/50% CMPS/HELP
* Going 33% each on CMPS/DFTX/HELP
What would you do in my shoes and why? Also, I understand people on here are super bullish about the companies they support, but hoping people will be civil (or at least more civil than Stocktwits).

Yeah I'm not getting all what's going on.
On one hand, positive 2nd round of phase results, the FDA is supporting the industry further, CMPS is prepping for the market to apply COMP360 to patients with training and all that...
On the other hand, we're being met with bearish stock performance that albeit it hasn't dropped below $11, it hasn't moved in parallel to other stocks ATAI or DFTX ...
I stand with the hope that this all changes with a flip of a switch with either 2rd Quarter results call and that macroeconomic situations get better in Q3 2026.
If anyone wants to repeat why bullish or bearish on CMPS please chime in.

Just posting updates. I have voiced my opinion over market caps of these companies before. Not going to rehash again. There is uniform consensus among analysts about modeling price targets with TAM. I wouldn't be surprised if $DFTX hits these targets after the upcoming results.

Ok. 9 billion market cap allowed for DFTX, 1,75 billion for CMPS. I really wonder if analysts can only read the TAM projections from company presentations without thinking at all, undew which conditions the drugs are reimbursed…or are the guys from DFTX besties with the analyst community or paying the premium client price? 🙄

Wells Fargo initiated coverage on $CMPS with equal weight PT $13
Wells Fargo initiated coverage on $DFTX with over weight PT $68

DFTX Voyage results this week? 👀

# Today is Monday, the 27th of July
## Upcoming events for Monday, July 27th
- Stock splits:
- RMXI @ **1:3**
- SGLY @ **1:14**
- SBEV @ **1:4**
- STKH @ **1:3**
- VYNE @ **1:50**
- ZNB @ **1:8**
- Expected earnings:
AGYS, AMKR, APLD, ARLP, AZN, BCAL, BLX, BMRC, BOH, BRO, BRX, BSRR, CBK, CBNA, CBNK, CDNS, CDP, CHRN, CINF, CLS, CSBR, CZWI, DYN, ESI, FFIV, FMAO, FSUN, GABC, GOVX, GRFS, HAPN, HBT, HIT, HLIT, HOPE, HTO, INHD, KFRC, KOF, KRC, LKFN, NBN, NBTB, NE, NEWT, NRC, NTB, NUE, NVTS, NWBI, OMAB, OPK, PERF, PFG, PGC, PRK, RMBS, RNGR, SANM, SSD, SUI, TFII, TIMB, TWO, UDR, UHS, UHT, VIV, VOD, WELL, WHR
- Ex-div:
FVCB, HFBL, SATA, SPFI, UNB, VALU, YBST, YBTY
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, July 28th
- Stock splits:
- CBWTF @ **1:14**
- SMTOY @ **5:1**
- WHLR @ **1:5**
- Expected earnings:
AAT, AB, ABG, ACGL, ACHC, AKR, ALKS, AMT, APAM, ASH, AUBN, AWI, AXS, AXTA, BA, BCS, BE, BRSP, BUSE, BXP, CAC, CAKE, CAR, CARR, CBFV, CBU, CGAU, CHE, CLW, CMS, CNC, CNP, CR, CSGP, CTO, CTS, CURB, CVLT, CZR, DINO, DTE, ECL, ENPH, EXE, EXLS, EXR, F, FCF, FE, FELE, FMX, FRAF, FSP, GEF, GEF.B, GLW, GSK, HIW, HLT, HRI, HUBB, HURN, INCY, INIO, IQV, ITRI, ITW, IVZ, JBLU, KLAC, KO, LOGI, LSTR, LXFR, MANH, MBIN, MDLZ, MEOH, MIR, MVBF, NAUT, NBR, NEO, NOV, NXPI, OI, OMC, ORN, OSK, OXLC, PCAR, PDM, PDS, PHG, PII, PJT, PNR, PPG, PROV, PYPL, QRVO, QUAD, RBBN, RCKY, RCL, RGEN, RITM, RNST, ROG, RUSHA, RUSHB, RWT, SB, SBCF, SEVN, SHW, SLDE, SNDL, SPGI, SPWR, STAG, STX, SWKS, TER, THFF, THG, TLRY, TRMK, TRTX, TRU, TSBK, TTAM, TXT, TZOO, UMBF, UNM, UPS, V, VLTO, VRNS, WERN, WM, WNEB, WPC, XIFR, XPRO, XYL, ZWS
- Ex-div:
ASML, FAST, PAYX, SATA, SND, UG
- Economic events and announcements:
- 2-Year Note Auction (previous: 4.189%)
- 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.730%)
- 5-Year Note Auction (previous: 4.200%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.835%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 1.7%, previous: 1.7%)
- Core Durable Goods Orders (consensus: 0.9%, previous: 1.4%)
- Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (previous: 0.0)
- Durable Goods Orders (consensus: 1.6%, previous: -4.5%)
- Durables Excluding Defense (previous: -4.6%)
- Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (previous: 1.4%)
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, July 29th
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADAM, ADP, ADPT, AEM, AER, AGI, AHT, ALGN, ALKT, ALRS, AM, AMRN, AMSC, ANIK, AON, APH, AR, ARCB, ARCC, ARIS, ARIS, ARM, ARXS, ASC, ASIC, ASTL, AUR, AVTR, AWK, AWRE, AXGN, BANC, BAND, BBNX, BBT, BBVA, BELFA, BELFB, BG, BHC, BHE, BIIB, BLCO, BLKB, BNL, BOOM, BOOT, BSX, BTU, CBRE, CBZ, CCEC, CFFN, CHDN, CHEF, CHRW, CLB, CLBK, CLH, CLMB, CLVT, CMG, CMPR, CMTG, CNMD, CNXN, CORT, COUR, CP, CPSH, CRK, CSL, CSTM, CTSH, CVE, CVI, CVLG, CVNA, CWH, CZFS, DB, DBD, DLHC, DMC, EDU, EFOR, EG, EIG, EPR, EQIX, ESRT, ESS, ETD, ETR, EVR, EXP, FBRT, FCPT, FICO, FINW, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTAI, FTNT, FTRE, FTV, FUSB, FVRR, FXNC, GBFH, GD, GEHC, GFL, GHC, GIB, GKOS, GNRC, GRBK, GRMN, GTE, GTX, HAYW, HBB, HBM, HLI, HOOD, HSBC, HUM, HVT, HVT.A, HWBK, HWKN, HXL, HYMC, IART, ICLR, IEX, ILPT, INVH, IONS, JCI, JOE, KEX, KGC, LAD, LARK, LENZ, LFUS, LHX, LII, LMND, LRCX, LUNG, LXP, LXU, MAA, MAS, MAX, MC, MCHB, MDXG, META, MFIN, MGM, MGPI, MGRC, MHO, MKL, MNRO, MOD, MORN, MSFT, MTG, MTH, MX, MYRG, NEU, NFG, NGVT, NHTC, NMRK, NPKI, NSP, NWE, NWPX, OBT, ODFL, OFLX, OGE, OHI, OMF, OPCH, ORLY, OSW, PAG, PB, PBHC, PBI, PCOR, PEB, PFS, PFSI, PG, PI, PLPC, PLXS, PMT, PPC, PRCH, PRG, PSA, PSHG, PSN, PTC, PTEN, PUMP, QCOM, QTWO, QURE, RDWR, REG, REYN, RGR, RM, RRBI, RSI, RYZ, SBUX, SCI, SCL, SFM, SHEN, SILC, SIM, SIMO, SITE, SLGN, SMG, SMHI, SOFI, SONO, SPOK, ST, STRA, SVCC, SW, SWK, TDOC, TENB, TEVA, TFSL, TIPT, TK, TNK, TREE, TTEK, TYL, UAN, UFPI, UIS, ULCC, UMC, UROY, USLM, VET, VFC, VICI, VKTX, VMC, VRSK, VRT, VTR, WAY, WEC, WFG, WHD, WING, WNC, WSO, WSO.B, WWD
- Ex-div:
ENTG, MCBS, PSEC, SATA
- Economic events and announcements:
- 7-Year Note Auction (previous: 4.260%)
- ADP Employment Change Weekly (previous: 16.50K)
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (consensus: -1.500M, previous: 2.603M)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- CB Consumer Confidence (consensus: 92.1, previous: 91.2)
- Dallas Fed Services Revenues (previous: 9.8)
- Goods Trade Balance (consensus: -98.00B, previous: -105.89B)
- House Price Index (consensus: 0.2%, previous: -0.1%)
- House Price Index (previous: 2.0%)
- House Price Index (previous: 441.4)
- M2 Money Supply (previous: 23.05T)
- OPEC Meeting
- Redbook (previous: 7.8%)
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto (previous: 0.3%)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (consensus: 10, previous: 4)
- Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (previous: 3)
- Richmond Services Index (previous: -1)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (consensus: 0.8%, previous: 1.1%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (previous: 1.0%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (previous: 0.0%)
- Texas Services Sector Outlook (previous: 2.9)
- Wholesale Inventories (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, July 30th
- Expected earnings:
AAMI, AAPL, ABEV, ACCO, ADC, ADT, AEE, AEP, AES, AG, AGCO, AGIO, AGM, AJG, ALGM, ALHC, ALNY, AMCX, AMG, AMH, AMRX, AMZN, AOS, APD, APG, AQMS, ASUR, ASX, ATHM, ATR, AUPH, AURE, AVD, AVY, AX, AXTI, BAFN, BAX, BBAI, BC, BCH, BDC, BFAM, BFLY, BGC, BIP, BIPC, BJRI, BLDR, BMY, BSBK, BTE, BUD, BVFL, BVN, BWIN, BXMT, BYFC, CABO, CACC, CBIO, CCC, CDNA, CDRO, CERS, CFR, CHKP, CI, CIGI, CLAR, CMCO, CMPS, CMRE, CNK, CNO, CNX, COCH, COHN, COHU, COIN, COLM, CPT, CRH, CROX, CRS, CSTL, CSW, CTVA, CUBE, CUZ, CVCO, CWT, DAIO, DAR, DFH, DFIN, DFTX, DGICA, DGICB, DLB, DOUG, DRH, DRS, DSX, DTM, DXC, DXCM, EEFT, EGO, EIX, EME, EMN, EPD, ERIE, ES, EXC, EXPO, FATN, FBIZ, FBLG, FCN, FET, FHI, FLGT, FND, FORR, FRBT, FSLR, FSS, FTI, GATX, GDDY, GDYN, GH, GIGM, GIL, GLPI, GOOS, GPI, GSIT, GVA, H, HCM, HGV, HII, HIPO, HLN, HNI, HR, HSY, HTGC, HUBG, HUN, ICE, IDA, IDCC, ILMN, INBK, ING, INGM, IP, IR, ISOU, IVR, JLL, KBR, KKR, KRG, KWR, LAUR, LECO, LH, LKQ, LNC, LNT, LOPE, LPLA, LSPD, LTH, LYG, LYV, MA, MAIR, MCS, MDGL, METC, METCB, MFG, MHK, MLCO, MLM, MMSI, MO, MPT, MPWR, MSA, MSC, MSEX, MSTR, MT, MTD, MTX, MTZ, MYE, MYGN, NATR, NBIX, NCLH, NCSM, NEOG, NEXT, NMIH, NVNO, NXT, OBE, OCFC, OFS, OIS, OLED, OLN, OMCL, ONEW, OWL, PACK, PATK, PBA, PBF, PFIS, PGY, PHAR, PHAT, PHIN, PIPR, PKX, PTCT, PWR, RACE, RAL, RBLX, RDDT, REGN, RES, RIOT, RIVN, RJET, RKT, RMNI, ROKU, RYAN, SAFE, SAH, SAIA, SAMG, SCKT, SHEL, SHOO, SIRI, SLSN, SNDR, SNY, SO, SOLS, SPSC, SPXC, SRBK, STGW, STLA, STNG, SVV, SXC, SXI, SYK, TAK, TAL, TBBK, TEM, TEX, TLK, TNET, TRN, TRP, TRS, TT, TW, TWI, UNIT, UPBD, UPLD, UTZ, VALE, VCEL, VCYT, VIRT, VLO, VNDA, VRTS, WBX, WCC, WTW, WU, WVE, WY, XEL, XHR, XPO, XRX, YUM, YUMC
- Ex-div:
FRMEP, SATA
- Economic events and announcements:
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 0.485M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 2.010M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -0.674M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: 0.090M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.058M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 1.395M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -0.1%)
- FOMC Press Conference
- FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision (consensus: 3.75%, previous: 3.75%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: 0.765M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: 0.060M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: 0.231M)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.69%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 1.9%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 165.8)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 264.0)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 802.3)
^^^^2026-07-27

Enjoyed the write-up, and owned dome dftx but sold at 43., but I'd push back on calling 8.46x the "base case," because a few things are doing a lot of quiet work in that number:
It's a chain of best-case assumptions multiplied together: all Phase 3s hit (MDD confirmatory + 2 GAD + PTSD), FDA approves, DEA reschedules, 5% penetration by 2030, 7.31x P/S holds, minimal dilution. Each might be likely on its own, but multiply them and the "everything goes right" path is a lot less than a base case. Worth labeling it as the bull case, because that's what it is.
The 7.31x is a sector-average multiple. It includes profitable, de-risked, revenue-generating biotechs. Applying it to hypothetical peak revenue of a pre-revenue company kind of double-counts the optimism (you're crediting full peak sales and a mature multiple).
The $200B TAM / $2B-per-1% figures are Definium's own slides, and company TAM slides are marketing, not estimates. Fine as a ceiling, risky as a model input.
The "that's it" on risks skips the real one: reimbursement. These are long, single-patient sessions, and the CPT codes for monitoring are Category III with no set payment rate yet. "New clinics will be established" only happens if the room-day actually pays. That's the whole ballgame for any of these (CMPS included), and it's not solved yet. Worth engaging with rather than waving off.
None of this means DFTX is a bad bet. The Emerge data was genuinely strong, GAD might be the best indication, and the Q3 GAD readouts are real catalysts. Just that the honest framing is "high-upside, earlier-stage, still-binary" rather than "base case 8x." The upside case is exciting enough without the sector multiple on peak sales.
Appreciate the effort you put in either way 🙏

You Have No Idea How Big DFTX Is Going to Be

Look, I've only been at this 3 or 4 years but I have had alot of success investing in the companies that are going to benefit humanity instead of this economy (pics below). If I were you I would sell all this bullshit while you're ahead, either this economy collapses and sustainable technologies and bio pharmaceuticals take the forefront and restore the health of the world or this "infinite growth in a finite system" style economy detroys the planet like the cancer it is. I made most of my gains and expect to make far more through DFTX which is treating mental health disorders with psychedelic derivatives instead of the rockefeller controlled crude oil derived shit full of side affects. I am certain we are soon going to have a massive stock market collapse, probably when trump finally dies or they invoke the 25th and the poor fucker who replaces him has to replace the economical foundations of shit he built, if that happens the companies that rise from the ashes are going to be those that are bemefiting the world most
https://preview.redd.it/r0nc3f7iomfh1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1daae35e5823b2dd62541dcc2df8a4f997f824ab

**DFTX. Quietly revolutionizing mental health treatment**