CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

I can't upload images in the comments for some reason but i used the following inputs for CRGY:
BOE Reserve 976m. Oil 41%, Gas 36,4%, NGL 22,6%. 341k boepd. Decline Rate 10%. Oil Diff -$2.5, Gas Diff -$1.5. Oil Hedge $65 & 66%. Gas Hedge $4 % 66%. NGL $22,5. Cost of Debt 8%. Debt $5,24b. Cash $32.6m. OpEx $14. G&A $2,05. DD&A $11,55. CapEx $12,55.
That yielded a target of $11,45 or +3,94% from yesterdays closing price. If we strip away hedges and use spot prices, the model returns a target of $15,79 or +43,26%
(some inputs are unchanged from CHRD and thus not mentioned).

CHRD is in the Williston Basin. Fracking. It is a Boom or Bust area.
What does your methodology do with another company like EOG that also operates in the Williston, but is a little bigger?
There was a time when anyone could drive to North Dakota and get a job, the hard part was finding housing. Then the bust came.

I had a couple hours to kill yesterday so I put on the latest quarterly earnings call for the O&G company, Chord Energy (CHRD) and built a very quick and dirty model to try and value it. Obviously it's not a normal DCF model built on a full Three Statement model, nor is it a full NAV model, but I'd still love to hear your thoughts on my five-minute model, could it be at all useful?
​
The result of the model isn't super far from the actual share price and the difference could possibly be explained as my O&G pricing assumptions being too high vs consensus, please let me know your thoughts.
​
Some obvious errors, the model declines production in a linear function, this is not how O&G production works in real life but I'm not an O&G professional so some corners had to be cut. The same applies for O&G prices, in the model they're fixed for the entire duration, in real life prices obviously fluctuate wildly from year to year.

I can't upload images in the comments for some reason but i used the following inputs for CRGY:
BOE Reserve 976m. Oil 41%, Gas 36,4%, NGL 22,6%. 341k boepd. Decline Rate 10%. Oil Diff -$2.5, Gas Diff -$1.5. Oil Hedge $65 & 66%. Gas Hedge $4 % 66%. NGL $22,5. Cost of Debt 8%. Debt $5,24b. Cash $32.6m. OpEx $14. G&A $2,05. DD&A $11,55. CapEx $12,55.
That yielded a target of $11,45 or +3,94% from yesterdays closing price. If we strip away hedges and use spot prices, the model returns a target of $15,79 or +43,26%
(some inputs are unchanged from CHRD and thus not mentioned).

CHRD is in the Williston Basin. Fracking. It is a Boom or Bust area.
What does your methodology do with another company like EOG that also operates in the Williston, but is a little bigger?
There was a time when anyone could drive to North Dakota and get a job, the hard part was finding housing. Then the bust came.

I had a couple hours to kill yesterday so I put on the latest quarterly earnings call for the O&G company, Chord Energy (CHRD) and built a very quick and dirty model to try and value it. Obviously it's not a normal DCF model built on a full Three Statement model, nor is it a full NAV model, but I'd still love to hear your thoughts on my five-minute model, could it be at all useful?
​
The result of the model isn't super far from the actual share price and the difference could possibly be explained as my O&G pricing assumptions being too high vs consensus, please let me know your thoughts.
​
Some obvious errors, the model declines production in a linear function, this is not how O&G production works in real life but I'm not an O&G professional so some corners had to be cut. The same applies for O&G prices, in the model they're fixed for the entire duration, in real life prices obviously fluctuate wildly from year to year.