CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

If you believe that the price of oil is going up this is a good stock for you, but this post overstates CHRD's value at current prices.
I do not believe that "Chord Energy is very well positioned to survive even down to $50 breakeven for a 10 year period." In ten years, they would use up all their reserves. They would need to find more reserves that would be profitable at $50.
If you believe OPEC will cut production to get the price of oil up this stock is for you.
If you believe OPEC will pump enough oil to run US oil producers out of business, you should not buy this stock until it is at a big discount from its current price.
I think Trump wants oil prices reduced until after the mid-terms. Low oil prices may help Republicans.
After the elections Trump may put a high tariff on oil to help US oil producers. That may be the time to buy this stock.

Hi r/dividends,
I’ve been building a concentrated, value-oriented portfolio focused on what I see as deeply undervalued opportunities in energy (upstream E&P, offshore drilling, LNG/infra) and shipping (tankers + dry bulk). The mandate is maximum return over a 1-2 year horizon, so I’m comfortable with high volatility and sector concentration in exchange for potential outsized gains if the commodity cycle cooperates.
**Core Thesis**
I’m looking for quality operators trading at attractive valuations with strong operational leverage to rising commodity demand, dayrates, or freight rates. Many of these names have cleaned-up balance sheets post-restructuring, low breakevens, solid inventories, and high free cash flow potential. Tankers and LNG/infra add some diversification within the cyclical theme. Near-term oil oversupply is a risk, but I believe tanker tonne-miles, constrained rig supply, and global gas demand can drive returns even in a sideways oil market.
**Asset Allocation**
- SDRL (Seadrill) – 8.9%
- AESI (Atlas Energy Solutions) – 7.9%
- NE (Noble) – 7.4%
- KOS (Kosmos Energy) – 7.3%
- VAL (Valaris) – 7.2%
- MTDR (Matrador Resources) – 7.1%
- CRGY (Crescent Energy) – 7.0%
- GPRK (GeoPark) – 6.7%
- CHRD (Chord Energy) – 6.6%
- FIP (FTAI Infrastructure) – 6.6%
- CIVI (Civitas) – 6.1%
- STNG (Scorpio Tankers) – 5.8%
- TRMD (Torm) – 5.5%
- SBLK (Star Bulk) – 4.1%
- PBR (Petrobras) – 3.3%
- NFE (New Fortress Energy) – 2.5%
**Sub-sector breakdown**
- Offshore drilling (~23.5%): SDRL, VAL, NE – tight rig market, post-bankruptcy balance sheets
- U.S. shale/low-cost E&P (~35%): AESI, MTDR, CRGY, CHRD, CIVI
- International/higher-torque E&P (~17%): KOS, GPRK, PBR
- LNG & infrastructure (~9%): NFE, FIP
- Shipping (~15%): Tankers (STNG, TRMD) + dry bulk (SBLK)
**Risks (I’m very aware)**
- Heavy commodity price sensitivity
- Concentration risk – energy dominates
- Currency moves (partially hedged)
- Geopolitical/regulatory wildcards
- Expected beta 1.5–2.0× to MSCI World Energy
**Outlook**
I expect tanker rates to stay firm near-term (tonne-mile tailwinds, thin orderbook), LNG demand to remain robust, and offshore drilling to benefit from any capex uptick. Oil could be range-bound $60-80, which is workable for many of these low-cost operators. If we get a stronger demand recovery, this could significantly outperform broader energy indices.
Would love to hear thoughts from the community:
- Do any of these names stand out as particularly compelling or overvalued right now?
- Any obvious risks I’m underweighting?
- Experiences with similar concentrated cyclical bets?
Happy to discuss individual names or the overall thesis. Thanks for reading!

>With shares trading around $90, CHRD appears materially undervalued relative to its free cash flow generation
Ask the LLM how exactly 6% FCF/EV or 7% FCF/mcap at $59 WTI is "materially undervalued". I'd like to know.

CHRD - An actual value play

If you believe that the price of oil is going up this is a good stock for you, but this post overstates CHRD's value at current prices.
I do not believe that "Chord Energy is very well positioned to survive even down to $50 breakeven for a 10 year period." In ten years, they would use up all their reserves. They would need to find more reserves that would be profitable at $50.
If you believe OPEC will cut production to get the price of oil up this stock is for you.
If you believe OPEC will pump enough oil to run US oil producers out of business, you should not buy this stock until it is at a big discount from its current price.
I think Trump wants oil prices reduced until after the mid-terms. Low oil prices may help Republicans.
After the elections Trump may put a high tariff on oil to help US oil producers. That may be the time to buy this stock.

Hi r/dividends,
I’ve been building a concentrated, value-oriented portfolio focused on what I see as deeply undervalued opportunities in energy (upstream E&P, offshore drilling, LNG/infra) and shipping (tankers + dry bulk). The mandate is maximum return over a 1-2 year horizon, so I’m comfortable with high volatility and sector concentration in exchange for potential outsized gains if the commodity cycle cooperates.
**Core Thesis**
I’m looking for quality operators trading at attractive valuations with strong operational leverage to rising commodity demand, dayrates, or freight rates. Many of these names have cleaned-up balance sheets post-restructuring, low breakevens, solid inventories, and high free cash flow potential. Tankers and LNG/infra add some diversification within the cyclical theme. Near-term oil oversupply is a risk, but I believe tanker tonne-miles, constrained rig supply, and global gas demand can drive returns even in a sideways oil market.
**Asset Allocation**
- SDRL (Seadrill) – 8.9%
- AESI (Atlas Energy Solutions) – 7.9%
- NE (Noble) – 7.4%
- KOS (Kosmos Energy) – 7.3%
- VAL (Valaris) – 7.2%
- MTDR (Matrador Resources) – 7.1%
- CRGY (Crescent Energy) – 7.0%
- GPRK (GeoPark) – 6.7%
- CHRD (Chord Energy) – 6.6%
- FIP (FTAI Infrastructure) – 6.6%
- CIVI (Civitas) – 6.1%
- STNG (Scorpio Tankers) – 5.8%
- TRMD (Torm) – 5.5%
- SBLK (Star Bulk) – 4.1%
- PBR (Petrobras) – 3.3%
- NFE (New Fortress Energy) – 2.5%
**Sub-sector breakdown**
- Offshore drilling (~23.5%): SDRL, VAL, NE – tight rig market, post-bankruptcy balance sheets
- U.S. shale/low-cost E&P (~35%): AESI, MTDR, CRGY, CHRD, CIVI
- International/higher-torque E&P (~17%): KOS, GPRK, PBR
- LNG & infrastructure (~9%): NFE, FIP
- Shipping (~15%): Tankers (STNG, TRMD) + dry bulk (SBLK)
**Risks (I’m very aware)**
- Heavy commodity price sensitivity
- Concentration risk – energy dominates
- Currency moves (partially hedged)
- Geopolitical/regulatory wildcards
- Expected beta 1.5–2.0× to MSCI World Energy
**Outlook**
I expect tanker rates to stay firm near-term (tonne-mile tailwinds, thin orderbook), LNG demand to remain robust, and offshore drilling to benefit from any capex uptick. Oil could be range-bound $60-80, which is workable for many of these low-cost operators. If we get a stronger demand recovery, this could significantly outperform broader energy indices.
Would love to hear thoughts from the community:
- Do any of these names stand out as particularly compelling or overvalued right now?
- Any obvious risks I’m underweighting?
- Experiences with similar concentrated cyclical bets?
Happy to discuss individual names or the overall thesis. Thanks for reading!

>With shares trading around $90, CHRD appears materially undervalued relative to its free cash flow generation
Ask the LLM how exactly 6% FCF/EV or 7% FCF/mcap at $59 WTI is "materially undervalued". I'd like to know.

CHRD - An actual value play