BLBD Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

# FRAN Report: BLBD

_Generated 2026-09-28 14:51 UTC_

## Summary & Financial Metrics

- **Company:** Blue Bird Corporation
- **Current Price:** 57.35
- **Market Cap:** 1,816,620,800
- **P/E Ratio:** 6.79
- **EPS:** 8.45
- **Dividend Yield:** -
- **Sales Growth:** 29.90%
- **Gross Profit Margin:** 20.57%
- **EBITDA:** 207,476,992
- **Debt/Equity:** 17.68
- **Current Ratio:** 1.64
- **Debt/EBITDA:** 0.56

## Valuations

- **10-Year Cap Price:** -
- **Fair Market Value:** 62.70
- **Discounted Cash Flow:** -215,955,625
- **Recommended Buy Price:** 31.35

## Value-Investing Models

- Piotroski F-Score: 8
- ROA improved vs. prior year: Yes
- Positive ROA: Yes
- Positive operating cash flow: Yes
- Operating cash flow > net income: Yes
- Lower long-term debt/assets vs. prior year: Yes
- Higher current ratio vs. prior year: Yes
- No new shares issued: No
- Higher gross margin vs. prior year: Yes
- Higher asset turnover vs. prior year: Yes
- Altman Z-Score: 5.67
- A) Working Capital / Assets = 0.17 x 1.2
- B) Retained Earnings / Assets = 0.00 x 1.4
- C) EBIT / Assets = 0.10 x 3.3
- D) Market Cap / Total Liabilities = 4.97 x 0.6
- E) Revenue / Assets = 2.16 x 1.0
- NCAV per Share: -1.32
- Current Assets: 323,379,000
- Total Liabilities: 365,330,000
- NCAV = Current Assets - Total Liabilities = -41,951,000
- EPV per Share: 5.76
- Normalized EBIT (avg of all years): 25,832,100
- EPV (Enterprise) = after-tax EBIT / WACC = 181,249,401
- EPV (Equity) = EPV Enterprise - Debt + Cash = 182,322,401
- FCF Yield: -0.57%
- Free Cash Flow: -10,407,500
- Market Cap: 1,816,620,800
- Owner Earnings per Share: unavailable (Missing net income, depreciation & amortization, or capital expenditures.)
- DuPont ROE: 23.86%
- Net Profit Margin: 2.10%
- x Asset Turnover: 2.40
- x Equity Multiplier: 4.72
- Tangible Book Value per Share: 3.07
- Total Equity: 159,564,000
- - Goodwill: 18,825,000
- - Intangible Assets: 43,554,000
- DDM Fair Value: unavailable (Company does not pay a dividend.)
- Magic Formula Earnings Yield: 2.85%
- EBIT: 51,657,000
- Enterprise Value: 1,815,547,800
- Net Working Capital: 87,406,000
- Net Fixed Assets: 97,322,000

## AI Insight

BLBD is generating substantial EBITDA of $207.5M and maintains a reasonable current ratio of 1.64, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. However, the company faces significant headwinds with negative free cash flow of -$10.4M and a highly concerning debt-to-equity ratio of 17.68, suggesting heavy leverage relative to shareholder equity.

**What to Watch**

- Free cash flow is negative (-$10.4M) despite positive earnings—monitor whether this improves or signals operational cash generation problems
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 17.68 is extremely high—watch for refinancing risks and whether debt levels decline relative to equity
- Discounted cash flow valuation is deeply negative (-$215.96M)—indicates DCF model is projecting significant future distress
- PE ratio of 6.79 appears very cheap, but reconcile against negative DCF and negative FCF to confirm quality of earnings
- Sales and revenue growth at 29.9% is strong, but earnings growth of 370.5% is outsized—verify sustainability and whether it reflects one-time items

**Valuation Note**

At $57.35 trading below fair market value of $62.70 and carrying a PE of 6.79, BLBD appears superficially cheap; however, the negative $215.96M DCF valuation, -$10.4M free cash flow, and extreme 17.68 debt-to-equity ratio suggest the low multiple reflects genuine distress risk rather than opportunity.