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This is your sentence:
"But I had exceptional knowledge beyond 99% of investors (literally advised fortune 100 CEOs)."
So this is your clarification:
"ITA not 100 CEOs, it was CEOs on Fortune Magazines list of top 100 companies. I would expect an expert investor like you to know that. But happy to clarify."
But you said you literally advised fortune 100 CEOs. So you didn't really. OK.
You love to make statements with NO SUPPORT:
"I only said that better performing investing strategies can and have existed. I literally was part of early computer trading algorithms that printed money for a time. But eventually the arbitrage is discovered and these advantage go away."
No Support was given, so your comments can be ignored (Hitchens's Razor).
You make this statement:
"A good discussion helps inform people and I’m glad you passionately defend your position. The best most efficient investment vehicle for a beginner for me would be something like VT. 100%."
But add "for a beginner." Why only a beginner? The implication the market can be beaten with methods only you know of and we all can be above average.
You make this statement:
"Go forth and do as you wish. I have more money than I can spend and would rather be researching the efficiency of charities to fund than trying to make more. I don’t pick stocks anymore because I don’t need to."
I too have a very, very large portfolio. I have not worked a day in many years. I yes, will "go forth and do as I wish." I'm sorry you cannot replace your passion for your lack of support.
You make this statement:
"I advised commodity traders who used superior information to make billions."
Hmm. Give me an example. More Hitchen's Razor.
To conclude, you provide ZERO support that you with your superior knowledge, knowledge that fortune 100 CEO seek, can obtain returns far beyond what the market returns. How you do this, you do not say. But you claim you have done it for the past 10 years. Again I employ Hitchen's Razor. You clearly believe you can win an argument without cogent arguments supported by facts and data but only with personal attacks and denials you said anything concrete. You have said absolutely NOTHING. All I did is present this FACT:
**79% of all active large-cap U.S. equity funds underperformed the S&P 500** in 2025
My guess is you are selling advice and if all one had to do is invest in index funds, your advice would be worthless.
.

Well, thats where you're wrong. As i already explained.

As a whole, over half the Canadian economy is held up by 60% of American products. There is a good chance that less than .1% of Canadian households have ZERO products from America.
Automotive imports from America are up 11.4%
Plane parts and travel equipment up 8.1%
Metallic and non ferrous metal is up 9.3%
Electronics? up 3.3%. Canada is building data centers to keep up, and guess where they get all that equipment from?
Alcohol is the least of americas worries. Americans drink enough on their own and it doesn't even dent the American economy. You're talking about one of the smallest percentages of trade between the two countries. Alcohol imports into canada are less than 1/10 of 1% of the total 1 trillion dollar industry.
If you have ever known an American, you will understand how that has literally zero impact on the American economy. Its just wasting Canadians money to put on a show, america already got the money for the import. This is just a grandstanding event for virtue signaling online and has literal no real world impact on ether country. You would also know that canadian whiskey is essentially the lowest quality in the western world, and why its had no meaningful impact and why Canada continues to import American whiskey.

So why not extend them. There's ZERO downside. Are you saying they'll let them expire just to be mean to the shareholders? Are you one of these "Ryan Cohen hates you" bots?

ZERO! Put your foot on the gas and hang on for dear life. When they hit high school, you can ease off a bit.

I've been building a screen specifically for 1-3 week asymmetric swing setups.

The goal isn't to find the stock with the strongest momentum or chase whatever is already breaking out. I'm looking for companies where:
* Fundamentals/earnings expectations are improving
* Valuation doesn't seem to reflect that improvement
* The stock is still depressed or consolidation
* There's an identifiable technical level where the market could begin repricing the company
* There's a clear level where the thesis is wrong

I started with a much larger Finviz screen originally and progressively filtered for growth, profitability, ROIC, balance-sheet quality and valuation. I then went through earnings/guidance, estimate revisions, catalysts and finally the daily/weekly charts.

These are the names I'm currently most interested in:

$NBIX
This one is probably the cleanest risk/reward setup of the entire group.
The company has strong growth, very little debt and a reasonable valuation, while the stock is still sitting near major long-term technical support.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $146-150
Early Reversal: $160
Major Confirmation: $165-167
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$145
Resistance & Take Profit: $176 / $184
I'm more interested in seeing $146-150 hold and $160 get reclaimed than waiting until the stock is already back at $180.

$RDDT
This one is one of the more interesting fundamental disconnects imo.
Revenue growth remains extremely strong, FCF has expanded significantly, and earnings estimates have continued moving higher, but the stock remains well below its previous highs.
Technically it appears to be building a broad base instead of continuing to collapse (plus, it's Reddit)
Technical Levels:
Demand: $145-150
Early Reversal: $160
Major Confirmation: $170-175
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$140
Resistance & Take Profit: $180 / \~$200
The $170-175 area is especially important because several major moving averages converge there.
$WDC
The AI/datacenter story isn't only about GPUs. Storage demand is another part of the infrastructure buildout, and WDC has seen strong earnings revisions alongside cloud demand.
Unlike some AI names, the stock is currently in a substantial correction rather than trading vertically higher.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $430-250
Early Reversal: \~$480
Major Confirmation: $500-510
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$420
Resistance & Take Profit: \~$550 / $590-600
This one is further along technically than NBIX/RDDT, but still hasn't fully repaired its trend.
$AVGO
To me this looks more like an expectations reset than deterioration in the underlying AI thesis.
The company continues to post enormous AI semiconductor growth, but expectations became extremely high and the stock was punished following earnings/guidance.
That's the type of situation I'm exactly looking for: excellent business, expectations reset, price near support.
Technical Levels:
Demand: $340-350
Early Reversal: \~$370
Major Confirmation: $378-385
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$335
Resistance & Take Profit: \~$400 / $425-430
A reclaim of $370 would be particularly interesting because of the moving-average confluence around that level
$STRL
This might actually have the largest fundamental/price disconnect of the list.
Revenue, EPS, backlog and guidance have all been moving strongly in the right direction, with major exposure to data centers, semiconductor fabs and other mission-critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the stock remains dramatically below its previous highs.
The catch: The chart is still damaged
Technical Levels:
Demand: $450-470
Early Reversal: \~$500
Major Confirmation: $512-525
Invalidation: Daily close below \~$440
Resistance & Take Profit: $580-600 / \~$600
$CIEN - Highest-Risk Reversal Watch
CIEN is the most contrarian name here.
The recent quarter showed roughly:
* Revenue +37%
* Adjusted EPS +215%
* Raised guidance
* Demand still exceeding supply
And the stock got destroyed anyway.
That creates an interesting potential overreaction, but the technical picture is much worse than the others.
I'm treating this one solely as a watch-only until the chart proves a bottom exists.
Technical Levels:
Potential Bottoming Zone: $300-320
First Reversal Signal: \~$345
Major Repair Zone: $375-405
Failure: Daily close below \~$295
I have ZERO interest in trying to perfectly catch the bottom here.
**How I'm Using The Levels**
One important distinction:
A demand zone is NOT an automatic buy zone.
It means I expect buyers to potentially appear there.
The early trigger is the first evidence the reversal might actually be starting. For those, I'll generally look at the 4H chart for a close/retest/higher-low structures.
The confirmation zone is where the daily trend starts materially repairing. A daily close inside it is progress; clearing the entire zone is stronger confirmation.
The invalidation zone is where I consider my technical thesis meaningfully damaged, generally based on a daily close rather than an intraday wick.
The whole point is to get involved before the bull run becomes obvious, but not so early that I'm just blindly catching falling knives.

Curious which of these you guys think has the best fundamental/technical mismatch, and especially interested in bearish arguments I might be overlooking!

Every single one of them is a scam. They make their money selling "courses" and most of them can't trade profitably to save their lives. Ross Cameron is one of the extremely FEW exception to this -- in that he can actually trade... but he still makes a load-ton of money selling courses and memberships. If you cappen to watch those videos (because the clickbait is real -- especially when you're trying to figure out what the "secret" is that everyone else knows except for you)... just keep in mind that whatever "trick" they show you never truly answers your questions... like WHEN to get in and WHERE to set your stop loss and WHEN to get out. NEVER. They do this knowing that you'll eventually believe that they know what they're talking about and the missing elements is right behind their course/membership paywall. It's not. Their courses are just longer versions of the dribble they give away fro free on YouTube. There is one YouTube channel that started a while back -- ImanTrading -- that actually exposes these scammers. Just know that there is no mechanical trick to trading (otherwise everyone would just input the formula into ChatGPT and have it print money all day long)... and absolutely ZERO truly profitable traders with a real edge would ever disclose their strategy to ANYONE. Exposing a true edge would risk it getting exposed and then countered... making them lose that edge ASAP. Nobody would risk that just to "share" something with others, even if it were for a fee. Would you sell a goose that could lay golden eggs for $500, or $2,500, or even $100,000? No. And no truly profitable trader with an edge would sell their edge either. All the other profitable traders who don't have insight or some secret edge simply put in the time and effort to PAPER TRADE until they eventually learn how the market LIKELY acts/reacts (there are never guarantees). You can learn basics from one of the tens of thousands of videos on YouTube, but you can't buy anything that will truly fast-track your way past putting in the experience. And when I say "PAPER TRADE" I really mean paper trading -- NEVER, NEVER, NEVER put in a single dime until you're wildly successful for at least six months paper trading. Otherwise you'll just be tossing your money down the toilet.

# PC Jeweller’s turnaround is real.
It has fully cleared 9 of 14 consortium banks and repaid >96% of dues to the remaining five.
But this is where the analysis gets interesting.
The biggest risks have shifted from:
**Debt → Cash flow, inventory, dilution & governance.**
And I found one accounting effect that could make today’s profits look much stronger than the underlying economics. 👇
———
# ₹1,286 crore profit vs ₹711 crore cash BURN.
**Across FY25 + FY26:**
• PAT: \~₹1,286cr 🟢
• Operating cash flow: – ₹711cr 🔴
**FY26 alone:**
PAT: \~₹711cr
Operating cash flow: – ₹78cr ⚠️
That is an enormous gap.
**The main culprit?**
Inventory.
FY25 inventory absorbed \~₹1,013cr of operating cash. ⭐️
So PCJ is currently generating far more accounting profit than cash profit.
For a turnaround company, I’d watch this more closely than PAT growth.
———
# Here’s the risk I think most investors are missing. ⚠️
PCJ’s Q1 FY27 margins were extraordinary:
• Revenue: ₹877cr
• Gross margin: \~29.6%
• Operating EBITDA margin: \~27.6%
Those are exceptional numbers for jewellery retail.
**But PCJ also disclosed something important:**
Its gold/silver exposure is carried on a FIFO cost basis, while current market prices are considerably higher. ⭐️
Why does that matter? ↓
———
# Imagine PCJ owns gold inventory bought years ago for ₹50.
Gold is now worth ₹100.
It sells jewellery at today’s higher price…
…but part of the accounting cost may still reflect that old ₹50 purchase price. ⭐️
Result:
**Old gold-price appreciation flows through reported gross profit.**
Nothing improper about FIFO accounting.
But there is a catch!
**Replacing that gold today costs ₹100.**
So PCJ can theoretically show:
• Strong PAT
• Huge margins
• Weak cash flow
**…at the SAME time.**
And that looks remarkably similar to what its accounts currently show. ✅
———
# This is why I wouldn’t blindly annualise PCJ’s 27%+ EBITDA margin.
Senco Gold, for comparison, explicitly told investors that rising precious-metal prices helped FY26 margins.
Its reported EBITDA margin was \~11.5%.
Management considered roughly 7.5-7.7% sustainable. ✅
PCJ’s margin is dramatically higher.
**The question I’d want management to answer:**
What would PCJ’s margin be if inventory were valued at today’s replacement cost rather than historical FIFO cost? ⭐️
That could completely change the valuation story.
———
# Then there are the old export receivables.
PCJ stopped exports in September 2021.
Yet by June 2026, original export receivables were still \~₹1,468cr.
Against this, the ECL provision was ONLY \~₹281cr. ⚠️
**More importantly, the auditor says it CANNOT determine whether:**
**• The existing provision is adequate**
**• Management’s collection timeline is reasonable**
Roughly ₹1,186cr therefore remains exposed AFTER the current provision. 🔴
Even a 50% additional impairment would be \~₹593cr.
Not existential anymore.
But definitely NOT trivial.
———
# There’s an even stranger accounting effect here.
PCJ’s receivables previously included hundreds of crores of unrealised forex gains.
Why?
Suppose a customer owes PCJ $100.
The customer doesn’t pay.
But the rupee weakens.
**That same unpaid $100 receivable becomes worth more rupees on paper.**
So:
Reported receivable ↑
Cash received = ZERO ⚠️
That’s why I’d track actual export cash collections, NOT merely the rupee value shown on the balance sheet. ⭐️
———
# Shareholders have also paid heavily for the turnaround.
Approximate share count:
Q1 FY26: 657.5cr
Q1 FY27: 971.1cr
That’s \~48% more shares in one year. ⚠️
Meanwhile PAT increased ONLY \~4%.
Result:
EPS fell from ₹0.25 → ₹0.18. 🔴
**So while the company became financially safer…**
**each shareholder owns a smaller piece of it.**
And despite being close to debt-free, PCJ has approval to raise ANOTHER ₹1,000cr through QIP. ⚠️
**That raises a simple question:**
If profits are already ₹700cr+, why is more equity required?
Weak operating cash flow provides one possible answer. ⭐️
———
# PCJ may effectively be replacing:
**Bank capital → Shareholder capital.**
That makes the company safer.
It doesn’t automatically make each share more valuable. ❌
And governance still deserves a discount.
Recent history includes:
**• SEBI proceedings relating to disclosure issues, later settled**
**• Continuing auditor qualifications**
**• CRISIL classifying PCJ as “Issuer Not Cooperating” as recently as May 2026**
The CRISIL point is particularly uncomfortable. 🔴
A company telling equity investors that its finances have transformed should ideally be willing to provide a rating agency enough information to independently assess that transformation. ⭐️
———
# Then comes PCJ’s move into gold mining in Chad. ⚠️
The idea sounds exciting: Vertical integration.
**But today, investors still LACK basic project economics such as:**
• Resource/reserve estimate
• Ore grade
• Recoverable ounces
• Mine life
• Production cost
• Capex
• Expected returns
For me, the issue isn’t Chad.
**It’s sequencing.**
After a major debt crisis and years of poor cash conversion, I’d first want PCJ to prove that its core jewellery business can consistently generate cash. ⭐️
———
# Put everything together:
PCJ has huge legacy gold inventory bought at historical costs.
Gold prices are much higher today.
Reported margins have become extraordinary.
Yet operating cash flow remains WEAK. 🔴
And shareholders keep providing fresh equity. 🔴
**That creates a plausible economic explanation:**
PCJ may currently be monetising old gold-price appreciation through its P&L while requiring fresh capital to replace that inventory at today’s higher prices. ⚠️
If true, today’s headline earnings may be much LESS repeatable than they appear.
———
# So my view is nuanced.
**PC Jeweller is a genuine turnaround.**
The debt crisis has largely been solved. ✅
But I wouldn’t yet call it a clean turnaround. ❌
**The next test is harder:**
Can PCJ generate strong cash flow without repeatedly issuing new shares? ⭐️
From here, the single number I’d watch most closely is:
**Operating Cash Flow ÷ PAT**
If cash conversion turns decisively positive while margins remain strong, several of these concerns weaken substantially. 🟢
**Until then, PAT growth may be one of the LEAST useful numbers in PC Jeweller’s accounts.**

thank you for sharing. I was just put thru the most hard sell trading inner circle program hiding behind being "good christian" stewards of the process and want to help people. We will give you 1 on 1 with Alan and hes made this and hes made that....then why is Alan selling a course???? They wanted 10 grand. and it was such a hard sell....50 gazillion phone calls before the call I booked to make sure I was gonna be on the call and then ZERO substance once I got on the call...it was all open ended questions about "where do you see yourself as a trader in 3 years with this system". WHAT SYSTEM????? you havent even told me anything!!!!

Its all slop, bc theres so much money to be made trading and so little money in youtube clicks it logically makes ZERO sense to focus on helping people unless you are already a master in this game and actually want to help people but you would never create these ai slop thumbnails if that was the case. Dont even pay attention to these losers. 

Because people shouldn't have blinders on and ONLY look at the dividend. The share price is down 23% in the past five years meaning an investor got ZERO return.

# Jim crammer bottom + Burry hold = GOING TO ZERO